CRUDE OIL BULLISH we can a potenial of push to up as i have mention in the chart after break the 15min resitance with good volume we can see little pull back to the red zone but the potential of going to the target is bigger remember this
Cl1
WTI OIL: Great success on last week's reversalOur short-term 75.82 target got easily hit following the lower than expected U.S. CPI yesterday, as WTI reached (and broke marginally above) the 4H MA50 (now at 75.09). Since it closed a candle above it (4H MA50) that means it turned it into a Support and keeps the trend bullish.
Careful handling is needed as despite 4H turning bullish since yesterday, the 1D remains bearish (RSI = 42.814, MACD = -2.890, ADX = 24.695) and above all the Fed announce the new Rate Decision today. For now, my new target is 79.00. A break above the 4H MA200 (81.97), we can target the 1D MA50 (83.55 and falling), which is the ultimate Resistance.
If the RSI hits its Resistance Zone earlier, book profit and sell again. The long term trend is bearish.
Previous WTI chart:
CRUDE OIL 30 MIN TIMEFRAMES HELLO GUYS THIS MY IDEA 💡ABOUT CL1! is nice to see strong volume area....
Where is lot of contract accumulated..
I thing that the sellers from this area will be defend this SHORT position..
and when the price come back to this area, strong sellers will be push down the market again..
DOWNTREND + SUPPORT from the past + Strong volume area is my mainly reason for this short trade..
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Crude Oil Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022 We cCrude Oil Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 6.51%, up from 6.33% from last week according to OVX data
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 83th percentile,
while according to OVX, we are on 77th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
Bullish: 4.62% movement
Bearish: 5.6% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 21.3% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 76.33
BOT: 67.24
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
30% probability we are going to touch previous high 76.2
67% probability we are going to touch previous low 70.1
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Weekly timeframe indicates -66% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
Daily timeframe indicates -80% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
4H timeframe indicates -53% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
Crude Oil (WTI): Will The Bearish Rally Continue? 🛢️
WTI Crude Oil is trading in a bearish trend since March.
The price broke and closed below a key daily demand zone last week.
The broken structure: 72.6 - 76.5 area, turned into a resistance now.
I believe that the market may drop lower from that.
Next target will be 62.3 - 66.3 area.
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WTI OIL Shouldn't rebound before testing this levelWTI Oil (USOIL) failed emphatically last week to break the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as it was rejected just below it and made yesterday and today a new market Low. Based on the RSI sequence as well, the rejection seems similar to September 14 that ended up making a new Low on the Lower Lows Zone (since July 14) on the -0.3 Fibonacci extension.
This extension is currently at 67.55 and we don't expect any meaningful rebound before testing that level. If it does, a rebound back to the 1D MA50 to test again the strength of this multi-month correction is very likely.
Alternatively you can keep an eye on the 1D RSI. Once it gets oversold near 30.00, buy and if it breaks the Lower Highs trend-line, confirm the 1D MA50 target.
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WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 12/6/22For Tuesday, 83.28 can contain buying into later week, below which 76.50 midterm support is likely again over that time horizon, where the market can place a weekly low, possibly into later December.
Holding above 76.50 allows 91.16 - 92.56 by the end of December, while closing today below 76.50 indicates 65.94 over the same time horizon, the start of a narrowing range of long-term support down to 65.00 able to contain selling through winter activity.
Upside Tuesday , closing above 83.28 indicates 91.16-92.56 within 2-3 weeks, longer-term resistance able to contain buying through winter.
CL Daily Long Idea. Will support holdThe CL daily time frame has pushed bullish off
the monthly support price point 74.40. The market
pushed bullish above the inner trend line and is
showing signs of a potential bullish trend to form.
There is another level of resistance above the
market at price point 88.31 about +810 ticks
above the market. As long as the market stays
above 74.40. It will be a good idea to turn to the
one hour time frame and look for low prices
in the buy zone.
WTI OIL: Bullish as long as 4h MA50 supportsThe price has turned flat as despite today's higher opening, there was a corrective 4H wave. However, as long as the 4H MA50 (78.92) holds and supports, our target remains the 4H MA200 (now at 84.46). Short-term traders may find use in scalping the 1H Bollinger Bands within 81.89 - 79.86, since both 1D and 4H (RSI = 54.999, MACD = 0.570, ADX = 31.841) remain neutral. On the longer term, a break above the 4H MA200, would be a buy break-out call for me, targeting the 1D MA100 (87.67), while a break below the 4H MA50 would be a sell, targeting 77.00.
CRUDE OIL (WTI) Your Detailed Trading Plan 🛢
WTI Crude Oil is approaching a key daily supply area.
The market was nicely rejected from that last week.
Analyzing the intraday perspective, I spotted a head & shoulders pattern on 4H time frame.
79.55 - 80.2 is its neckline.
To short the market with a confirmation, wait for its bearish breakout.
We need a 4H candle close below that to make a breakout valid.
A bearish continuation will be expected then.
Goals: 77.7 / 76.5
If the price respects a neckline and sets a new high then, the setup will be invalid.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Financial Wave. CLCL
Our preferable scenario for CL is to drop the price to $68. The $83-$86 range is key for the CL, the $86 price move cancels our scenario.
CL1! Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CL1! is bearish due to the current price crossing below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell entry at 81.30, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 84.14, slightly above where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 76.93, where the 20% Fibonacci line and previous low is.
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USOIL 5th DECEMBER 2022Organization of Petroleum Exporters and its Allies (OPEC+) maintained production cuts, keeping production at 2 million barrels per day (bpd) from November to 2023. Oil prices weakened as China's zero-covid policy weighed on demand. However, after the regulation was relaxed in a number of cities including Beijing and Shanghai, oil prices slowly moved up. WTI and Brent oil are significantly bullish, this is partly driven by the easing of China's covid-19 lockdown.
Technically, oil prices are still in a bearish trend, but bullish is possible in the next few days until the resistance area. recommendation to sell in the resistance area marked by the red area. Prices can go higher, pay attention to several points that can make oil prices tend to be bullish: opec policy, easing lockdown in china, and weakening USD.
CL back to $90 a barrel?Following price cap on Russian oil, Opec+ is likely to cut oil supply for the second time.
Technically, CL has broken above the downtrend resistance and now in a correction wave.
Getting filled at $77 will give us the ideal RRR in this trade.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 12/5/22For Monday, 83.20 can contain buying into later week, below which 76.50 midterm support is likely again over that time horizon.
Downside Monday, 79.62 can contain intraday weakness, while breaking/opening below 79.62 allows 76.50 intraday, where the market can place a weekly low, possibly into later December.
Holding above 76.50 allows 91.16-92.56 by the end of December, while closing today below 76.50 indicates 66.10 over the same time horizon, the start of a narrowing range of long-term support down to 65.00 able to contain selling through winter activity.
Upside Monday, pushing/opening above 83.20 signals 85.02, while closing today above 83.20 indicates 91.16-92.56 within 2-3 weeks, longer-term resistance able to contain buying through winter.
Opening (Margin): /CL February 15th 40 Short Put... for a 1.70 credit.
Comments: Taking a small, far out-of-the-money trade on weakness here, targeting the strike paying around 10% of buying power effect in credit. 1.70 credit on BPE of 16.32; 10.4% ROC at max; 5.2% ROC at 50% max as a function of buying power effect.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 12/2/22For Friday, 83.11 can contain buying into later next week, below which 76.48 midterm support is likely again over that time horizon.
Downside Friday, 79.44 can contain intraday weakness, while breaking/opening below 79.44 allows 76.48 intraday, where the market can bottom out through next week.
Holding above 76.48 allows 92.46 by the end of December, while closing today below 76.48 indicates 66.25 over the same time horizon, the start of a narrowing range of long-term support down to 64.57 able to contain selling through winter activity.
Upside Friday, pushing/opening above 83.11 signals 85.02, while closing today above 83.11 indicates 92.46 within 2-3 weeks, longer-term resistance able to contain buying through winter activity.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 12/1/22For Thursday, 76.48 can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 83.03 is likely within the week, possibly allowing 92.46 longer-term resistance by the end of December.
Upside Thursday, 83.03 can contain buying through the balance of the week, while a daily settlement above 83.03 indicates 92.46 within 2-3 weeks, where the market can top out through winter activity.
Downside Thursday, 79.86 can contain intraday weakness, while breaking/opening below 79.86 allows 76.48 intraday, able to contain weekly selling pressures and the point to settle below for indicating 66.41 within 2-3 weeks, the start of a narrowing range of support down to 64.57 able to contain selling through winter.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 11/30/22For Wednesday, 76.48 can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 82.95 is likely within the week, possibly allowing 92.46 longer-term resistance by the end of December.
Upside Wednesday, 80.46 can contain intraday strength, beyond which 82.95 is likely intraday and able to contain buying through the balance of the week.
A daily settlement above 82.95 indicates 92.46 within 2-3 weeks, where the market can top out through winter activity.
Downside Wednesday, breaking/opening below 76.48 allows 72.87, while closing today below 76.48 indicates 66.56 within 2-3 weeks, the start of a narrowing range of support down to 64.57 able to contain selling through winter.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 11/29/22For Tuesday, 76.48 can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 82.87 is likely within the week, possibly allowing 92.46 by the end of December.
Upside Tuesday, 78.49 can contain intraday strength, beyond which 82.87 is attainable intraday and able to contain buying into later week.
A daily settlement above 82.87 indicates 92.46 long-term resistance within 2-3 weeks, where the market can top out through winter activity.
Downside Tuesday, breaking/opening below 76.48 allows 72.87, while closing today below 76.48 indicates 66.72 within 2-3 weeks, the start of a narrowing range of support able to contain selling through winter activity.
Oil buyers step in at $72/bbl: Is the downside limited?The oil market has seen a lot of activity, with recent developments mostly easing worries about market tightness.
In China, Covid-related restrictions have been reinstalled in major cities, triggering rare protests and consequently reducing outlook for oil consumption, in striking contrast to perceived moves to reopen the economy at the beginning of November.
On the supply side, reports that the United States granted Chevron Corp permission to restart oil production in Venezuela, as well as Iraq's statement that it will add 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day of oil export capacity by 2025, weighed on oil prices.
The oil future curve is no longer in a backwardation state. The price premium that spot WTI held over its future contracts ( 3A1! ; 4A1! ; 5A1! ) has been fully wiped away by the most recent leg of oil depreciation. In essence, the spot price of oil is currently trading at par compared to its 6-month future delivery, indicating that the market is not currently concerned about prompt supply.
This condition has not been observed since January 2021, and it may be prudent to be wary of surprises at this time.
Bad news is priced, but positive catalysts are still to come?
With most bad news already priced in by the market, it may take something new to stop oil prices from falling. In October, the US White House signalled that it intends to repurchase crude to replenish its SPR stocks when WTI prices are at or below about $65/bbl and $72/bbl. Consequently, this area could present a strong price support and thus limit the downside relative to current market prices.
Additionally, supply-side risks have not completely disappeared. The G7 has postponed a price ceiling on Russian oil, but Russia said that it may retaliate, restricting supply, if the G7 applies a price cap. In view of recent market developments, OPEC+ could also reinforce its very restrictive supply strategy on Sunday, December 4th.
Dip buying to resume at $72?
Technically speaking, oil has revised its lows for 2022 and is currently experiencing a negative year-to-date performance.
The most recent wave of decline was dramatic, bringing the daily RSI close to oversold territory. In the past, massive selloffs in oil prices, with the daily RSI in oversold territory, produced some near-term price recovery. WTI prices are currently 14% and 30% below their respective 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which appears overly pessimistic considering the persistence of upside risks.
Given how sharp the recent downward trend was and the fact that a positive catalyst might happen soon, dip buying may start to come back at these levels.
Crude Oil 5 Wave Sequence Completing, What Next?In this update we review the recent price action in the Crude Oil futures contract and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
Light Crude to 54.09 by Jan 13th 2023Light Crude has lost a significant level at 78.16 and is reverting to the mean at 54.09 as demonstrated by my pitchfork trends and sigma measurments.
Pitchfork Price Action Analysis
Light Crude has broke out of the recent uptrend (with red median) and broke away from the (red) mean on Jun 14th 2022 (priced at 123.68).
Since then it has started to follow the down trend median with an attempt to break out on Nov 7 2022 (priced at 93.74)but failed to do so.
Price is looking for buyers at the 68.15 and if it fails to find them then this trend will revert to the median trend that broke out in Dec 22, 2021. That will take Light Crude to 54.09 by Jan 13th, 2023.
Flash Crash
Should we continue the trend down I can actually see a flash crash to 40.63 by Feb 28th 2023. This will be the full sigma move and will be an area where I'll look to buy into a reversal.
