Crude Oil BIAS - Monday So Friday Crude showed its hand to us and what it was really wanting to do.
Sell side hit and with that a large Daily Displacement.
We could expect a smaller range day today and with that said I am looking for short term BSL to be taken before to carry on to the sell side of the chart.
I have two targets marked out clearly for this weeks initial draw on liquidity and the BIAS.
Cl1
Thursday Crude Oil ForecastYesterday we saw a nice rally creating a Daily +OB which I have annotated.
If price is to respect the 4hr FVG we will see price go higher to the marked target.
I am bullish today however to expect some form of retracement after such a move is understandable for the market to make.
Bullish is the motive.
WTI OIL Still bearish but watch this level for a reversal.WTI Oil (USOIL) is posting today the 2nd straight green 1D candle following yesterday's EIA report but the short-term pattern remains a (dashed) Channel Down, which keeps the trend bearish. Ever since the July 05 rejection at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 1-year Triangle pattern, we've been aiming for a 1W MA200 (red trend-line) contact, similar to the February 05 2024 Low.
As long as the 1D RSI remains below its MA trend-line, we will remain bearish, moving however our medium-term Target a bit higher to 78.50.
If however the RSI breaks above its MA, we will close the short immediately and buy instead on the bullish break-out, targeting 87.60 (Resistance 2).
Keep also an eye on the RSI's Symmetrical Support level (43.35) for a potential reversal.
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WTI OIL Rejected on the 9-month Resistance. Still good to sell.Last week (July 02, see chart below) we called for a short-term correction upon a potential Lower Highs rejection on WTI Oil (USOIL):
As you can see, the strong rejection was materialized last Friday on that 9-month Resistance, and the long-term Triangle pattern is technically looking for a 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level test.
Zooming out on the 1W time-frame, we can see even more relevant info. During the previous two 0.618 Fibonacci pull-backs, the price also hit the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which has served as Oil's long-term Support in the last 3.5 years (since February 01 2021). The only time it closed a 1W candle below the 1W MA200 during this time span was recently on the week of June 03 2024.
As a result, besides the 0.618 Fib, we expect the 1W MA200 to be tested also, so depending on the decline's strength, we may have to move our 77.00 Target a bit higher (e.g. 78.00). It has to be mentioned though that the decline to the 0.618 Fib during the past 2 corrections has been dealt within a week. So technically we should be expecting an aggressive move this week.
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Slow Monday? Crude OilSo we took some Daily BSL last week on Friday and since we have sold off slowly.
NWOG gapped down and this indicates for at least today some sort of Raid or hunt to also touch a PD array thats near to a discount.
We have no major news catalyst today and that brings slow PA although it may travel its not ideal for scalpers. ( Lots of back and forth )
Wednesday and Thursday have crucial Crude Oil news events and these will be the optimum days to trade.
For Today I am bearish until we reach these targets and or a htf Market structure shift.
Be prepared to stay dynamic.
NFP FrYday Crude OilMy ultimate target for this week is the BSL marked with a magnet.
The main internal Liquidity I am looking at is marked with arrows.
Which ones get taken first near or at NFP is very important for the intra day BIAS
And I will be watching this.
Mainly Tape reading today, I have no interest in Engaging in the market
WTI OIL Testing 9-month Resistance.WTI Oil (USOIL) has so far ignored last week's 1D Death Cross formation and made a strong jump yesterday that isn't about to only test Resistance 1 (84.50, the April 26 High) but also the Lower Highs trend-line, a 9-month Resistance going back to September 28 2023.
The 1D RSI approaching the 70.00 overbought level after a Double Bottom at 30.00, which is a pattern we last saw leading to the January 29 2024 High. That was also a Resistance test. As a result, it is now worth attempting a tight SL sell (using that level as stop) and Target 77.00, which is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, being the target of the February 05 correction. That will also make a technical test of the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which is again what happened on Feb 05.
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Turbo Tuesday's So we are heavily bullish and in this scenario I like to see a retracement around NY that will enable me to start looking for my entry model that will Target the BSL that is marked.
Pretty simple today...
I have a 1hr fvg that I would like to be respected meaning 1hr candle closes above the discount of the FVG.
If before NY we take out the BSL marked I will update here..
WTI OIL Death Cross formed Pullback to $76 would be very healthyWTI Oil (USOIL) is forming a Death Cross on the 1D time-frame, the first since December 22 2023. That comes after the former Channel Down had a bullish break-out following a rebound on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), a series of events that happened also on December 20 2023 and before that on May 17 2023.
We already have a 1D MACD Bullish Cross. Circling back to the 1D Death Cross, the one on December 22 2023 formed a short-term top that had the price pull back within the 0.618 - 0.786 Fibonacci retracement Zone.
As a result, even though we have confirmed a new long-term uptrend, we technically turn bearish on the short-term, expecting a pull-back towards the 0.618 Fib, targeting $76.00.
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Weekend Wizardry On Crude OilRight now It makes no sense in my mind why the market would want to return to being bearish.
Yes we are in a premium and after a couple days of upwards movement there can be some stagnent action for traders who like to take more than 25-40 ticks ona single move.
So again why would market want to move lower on a htf bases as pointed in my arrows we have a Daily FVG whcih I will be watching price to respect and create a discount in that FVG
The wicks from Friday and Monday Daily chart show immediate rebalance and a propell higher is what I am looking for.
Given Monday can be opposing price to what Tues and Wed Provide... wink wink
Magnet shows my target for next week. to revisit this and whilst in fvg how do we close? Daily fvg CE?
I really do look at price on the day to day basis weekly targets yes but this is a subconscious thought when im trading pacific times of the day.
CL1! (Cruide Oil Futures) - Top-down Analysis Ok guys, here is my analysis for Crude Oil Futures.
I've been bullish, but the currently I don't have anything in terms of a strong bias in either direction. But what I will be looking for is what I mentioned wanting to see on the weekly timeframe.
Watch the analysis, let me know what you think will happen with crude oil prices!
- R2F
Crude Oil Thursday Rumble...As we are in Bullish territory on the HTF the Daily FVG bellow is where I am anticipating price to retrace too leading upto 0930est... Does it have to retrace there? No.
However I am Looking at Bullish bias towards the Daily V.i Marked in the chart for a Target and Forecast going forward...
Pretty simple.
WTI OIL Shifted to longterm bullish, but expect correction firstWTI Oil (USOIL) broke above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and invalidated April's Channel Down. Last time we saw such a Channel Down bullish break-out following a rebound on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) was on December 20 2023 and before that on May 17 2023.
The common characteristic was that a 1D MACD Bullish Cross accompanied all those break-outs and the last two formed a 1D Death Cross. On both previous occasions, the price pulled back to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, touching the 1W MA50 again.
As a result, even though we have confirmed a new long-term uptrend, we will turn bearish on the short-term, expecting a pull-back towards the 0.618 Fib, targeting $76.00.
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Crude Turbo Tuesday'sYesterday we saw a nice bulish displacement and I would like price to stay above the 1hr FVG..
We can wick bellow on the 1hr but leading into CME open I would wait for bullish price to reach to the 80.00 level which is the Daily FVG..
Once we close inside the Daily FVG we can start looking at CE of it.
Crude oil eyes $80, but resistance loomsWTI is on track for a bullish engulfing week to snap a 3-week losing streak. And as it fell over 17% from the April high, it could pave the way for further gains in the coming weeks. However, there are plenty of resistance levels around the $80 that could spur bears from the side lines.
The May VPOC and VAH sit around Wednesday's high, and the monthly R1 and weekly R2 near the May high. So whilst another crack at $80 seems more likely than note, the $80 area could be an interesting area to fade into.
Strong support sits around $75.50, making it a viable target for bears and area for bulls to reconsider entering for an anticipated move above $80.
WTI OIL Sell signal at the top of the Channel Down.WIT Oil (USOIL) didn't disappoint last time we looked at it (June 05, see chart below) and delivered our buy signal, easily hitting the 75.70 Target:
The price is now at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 2-month Channel Down and just below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), which is where the last Lower High was priced and rejected. At the same time, the 1D RSI is on the 53.80 Resistance, which was the level that priced the last two Lower Highs.
Technically this is the most optimal sell entry on this pattern. We have a modest target at 72.45 (Support 1), as despite the fact that a Lower Low is expected lower, the 1W MA200 looms as a Support and long-term may form a strong Support base. That remains to be seen, so for the time being we take only short-term targets.
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