Imperfection of the OPEC + deal in the future. Hello, my dear subscribers. Who has read my articles before you should know that the price of oil should cost up to $20 per barrel. The goal is achieved. Now oil is growing on Trump's verbiage, but this is wrong, this is a big mistake, the market does not work like this. The market will punish Trump, the coronavirus has reduced energy consumption and spending, for this reason, the weak companies should leave the market, as in other sectors of the economy. Making artificially high prices in the context of the global financial crisis will be a very bad decision, which will become even more burdensome and difficult in the future, as a result of which oil will cost even less. Trump is very wrong, this is very bad for a sick world!
CL2!
Can you find a reason to go long for this ? Share with usFundamental reasons for not going Long :
1. Saudia Arabia is flooding the market with Oil - excess supply
2 Travel, tourism business actual damage still unknown - many airlines have retrenched staff
3. Is work from home going to be the new norm ?
4. Storage space insufficient
5. No strong economic catalyst to cause a rebound
From the chart, you can see it is obviously in a downtrend channel and I have little hope of a strong rebound. It might hover around 17 to 20 dollars range within the channel or worse, continue to head south and revisit the 1986 Jun low at 9.97.
Short is definitely too late and buy is a No no for me. So, I will just wait and watch. There are more exciting products and stocks out there to trade.
How to Chart Futures Contracts and Crude Oil's Historic MoveCrude oil traded at -$40 per barrel and that is a historic move. It will go down in the history books.
In this video, we want to show everyone how to track and analyze futures on TradingView, specifically future contracts in crude oil CL1! and CL2!. On TradingView, it's possible to study any futures market and break that market down by each month. CL1!, for example, shows the current crude oil contract in front. CL2! shows the next contract in front. You can also dive into specific contracts that go as far as 2021 or 2022 or beyond.
This video tutorial is meant to be educational and we hope it helps anyone interested learn more about these markets. It's important to remember that most futures contracts trade based on an expiration date. Then, the contracts roll to the next month after that. As a platform, TradingView gives you the data and tools needed to analyze any of these contracts. The quickest way to getting started is to use the search bar to explore all the possible futures contracts that can be analyzed or visualized on a chart.
We hope this video tutorial helps the community get started. Please press like if you enjoyed it and, even better, please leave a comment to add to this discussion. Let's hear your opinion on futures market and the recent crash in crude oil.
USOIL Look Ahead for week starting 1/19/20The future USOIL, symbol CL, is in a Bear Market with price trading above the 50 ema, which is below the 200 ema, which is below the 800 week ema. The long term emas are mostly flat, indicative of an accumulation / distribution zone. Price has closed below the 13 ema at 58.85 on the weekly, so therefore, the Bear Market Rally can be considered over. Last week was a red bodied candle with a long lower wick, which is known as a Hammer. Hammers are bottoming candles that have to be confirmed by the next candle trading higher, preferable a long green candle. Price action tested a long term trend line, but did not close below it. The larger cycle period length Elliott Wave implies a rally above 66.58 to complete this primary b-wave.
The Market is in a Bear Market on the daily, with price below the 13 ema and the 50 ema which are still above both the 200 and 800 emas, but the 200 ema, at 57.81 still below the 800 ema, at 58.36. Price broke below a long-term trend line last week, implying a potential trend change. A likely down side target for this x-wave sell-off are the 200 and 800 emas. We’re still in an downtrend as long as each day closes below the 9 &13 emas at 59.48. We got a couple dojis as part of a morning star pattern last week, implying a potential bottom. With the emas flat and as close together as they are, we are likely to see a lot of trading range activity, stop hunts, and all kinds of other malfeasance until the Real Bottom on this x-wave gets put in. This is the kind of market that chews up trading accounts.
The Market is in a deep correction of a Bull Market on the 4 hour, with price below the 30 and 50 emas, which are above the 200 ema, at 59.51, which is above the 800 ema at 57.83. Price would have to close back above the 9 & 13 ema, at 58.53 to consider the correction over. The way this market is trading expect a retest of the lows…
This is my USOIL look ahead for my own trading purposes. FUTURES trading involves risk. Feel free to comment, but trade off of this post at your own peril.
USOIL Look Ahead for week starting 1/05/20The USOIL, symbol CL, is in a Bear Market Rally with price trading above the 50 ema, which is below the 200 ema, which is below the 800 week ema. The 50 week ema is currently slightly up trending, but by and large the long term emas are mostly flat. This implies an accumulation/distribution zone. The intermediate term Elliott Wave implies a rally above 66.58 to complete this b-wave.
The Market is in a Bear Market Rally on the daily, with the 50 ema above both the 200 and 800 emas, but the 200 ema still below the 800 ema. Price is above a long-term trend line and has been trading in over-lapping corrective waves above the 9/13/30/50 emas. A likely upside target for this rally is $64.5. We’re still in an uptrend as long as each day closes above the 13 ema at 61.07 and the uptrend line.
The Market is in a Bull Market on the 4 hour, with price above the 50 ema, which is above the 200 ema, which is above the 800 ema. Price would have to close below 62.30 to be considered in a correction. The Oil Market is rallying as a result of all the FED Repo and Not-QE money creating a Risk On environment, as well as US tensions with Iran and the potential for war.
With the assassination of the Iranian General and the threats of terrorist acts against Americans in the Middle East, Crude Oil should open up, especially with all the break out traders and retracement traders eyeing the 63.33 prior resistance level. Price should then consolidate with stop hunts up and down, and then pull back into the later part of the week.
This is my USOIL look ahead for my own trading purposes. FUTURES trading involves risk. Feel free to comment, but trade off of this post at your own peril.
USOIL Look Ahead for week starting 1/12/20The future USOIL, symbol CL, is in a Bear Market Rally with price trading above the 50 ema, which is below the 200 ema, which is below the 800 week ema. The 50 week ema is currently slightly up trending, but by and large the long term emas are mostly flat. This implies an accumulation/distribution zone. Price would have to close below the 13 ema at 58.86 on the weekly for the Rally to be considered over. Last week was an ugly long red candle which formed a dark cloud candle pattern, and marking the top of the intermediate cycle time frame c-wave top of the b-wave. The larger cycle period length Elliott Wave implies a rally above 66.58 to complete this primary b-wave.
The Market is in a correction of a Bear Market Rally on the daily, with price below the 13 ema, but above the 50 ema which is above both the 200 and 800 emas, but the 200 ema, at 57.79 still below the 800 ema, at 58.36. Price is testing a long-term trend line zone and just broke below the 9/13/30 emas this last week and is testing the 50ema. A likely down side target for this x-wave sell-off are the 200 and 800 emas. We’re still in an downtrend as long as each day closes below the 9 &13 emas at 60.70.
The Market is in a correction of a Bull Market on the 4 hour, with price below the 9/13/30/50 emas, which are above the 200 ema, at 59.90, which is above the 800 ema at 57.79. Price would have to close back above the 9 & 13 ema, at 59.82 to consider the correction over. The Oil Market is selling off as a result of the succession of US tensions with Iran.
With a likely calm weekend, I’m expecting the oil futures to open in a positive light, but test the lower trend lines and emas, in the early part of the week, then bounce in to the later part of the week to complete wave form patterns. The over-all trend is down on the longer time frames, but there is a feeling that this is the quiet before the storm. Hostilities in the Middle East could unexpectedly show up at any point and cause prices to rocket back up.
This is my USOIL look ahead for my own trading purposes. FUTURES trading involves risk. Feel free to comment, but trade off of this post at your own peril.
Crude oil long opportunity USOIL WTICOUSD CL2!We have a long opportunity in crude oil now. Crude oil has been sitting at the 61.8% retrace around 45.40ish for the last couple of days.
A study of the longer term cycles shows that we have just completed a corrective red zone which actually started in March 2018, this cycle reached a low in December 2018 and will reach its next high in June 2019.
We are still in a green (bullish) longer term zone which started January 2016 and should end around July 2019.
These cycles are represented by the different types of vertical lines on the charts.
I believe after August 2019, we will have the chance to short oil once again.
If the 61.8% retrace does fail, then we may see a drop to $36-40, so be careful.
Stop loss 44.90
Short term target 51
Longer term targets range from 62 and up.
This is not recommendation to buy or to sell.
(see information about cycles at the DJIA links below)
ES1! Short Jun18 S&PThought I would move away from Oil for a bit ... but not too far away ...
... (expecting $68 top then reverse. May CL1! rolls this Friday, volume has already moved down 216K last week to Friday on CL2! while OI has increased by about half that. I expect down this week, then up into the new month. So short til Friday on new month. Then open new long on new month either as cover or position. Depends on "events");
But ES (June) appears to be showing a bearish wedge pattern.
There is considerable resistance overhead at 2670-80. This is where you can add to positions with good Risk Reward. Support lies at 2620 then 2600 then 2560.
The pattern suggests an ultimate, possible move to 2440.
If you choose to short, Entry is on break close below lower radian (2640+) or if you are more anxious (2660+). The Stop is above Swing High (say) 2685
Exits are at Support levels (say) 2560 first then sell again on the pull back (and retest) at 2600. If it bounces off 2600 grab a profit then re-establish your short at 2620. If you miss, then just add.
Remember to move your SL lower as you go!
Remember you are adults so do your own research and planning!
... just my 2c worth ...