Cl_1!
Update USOIL: $61.50 first, then $52Commodities are typically the last asset to peak during a cycle. We typically interest rates peak first, a couple of months later that followed by equities and a couple of months after equities we see commodities peak. Commodities such as crude oil, are part of the contraction phase in the cycle, the higher the price rises it begins to acts as a tax on consumers and that begins the early recession phase. For that reason, I have marked this rally in crude as a wave A of a bigger corrective pattern.
Update: View of Crude Oil remains, buying opportunity at $48.60Demand remains consistent at 1.5% YoY, the decline was caused entirely by supply-side shocks and record production. From the lows, late last year OPEC has talked up production cuts which would ultimately be the catalyst to rally higher.
This is a bullish market, shorting counter-trend is risky so make sure you are managing the risk of the position BEFORE you place your trade.
I won't be shorting Oil, but I will be a buyer at $48.60 provided all the planets continue to align.