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COT Strategy - Crude Oil LongsDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy Crude Oil (CL) My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in CL again this week. To clarify, this was setup last week also, and triggered me long this week via a CCI divergence long trigger. Based on this weeks COT strategy analysis, I think this is a nice market for further upside and will look to enter again via 18MA & 10H8C MAC entry methods. COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal. Net Positioning: Max long of last 3 years - bullish. Small Spec Index: Buy Signal. Valuation: Undervalued vs Gold & Treasuries. Front Month Premium Market. True Seasonal up to Mid October. Supplementary Indicators: Stochastic. Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a Daily long trigger. Good luck & good trading.
NYMEX:CLZ2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
Smart Money Positioned to LONG Crude Oil - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy LONG Crude Oil (CL) My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in CL if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal OI Analysis: Generally last few weeks OI has drifted lower while CM's adding to longs - bullish. CM's approaching extreme long positioning, but not quite there yet. True Seasonal: True seasonal to go up until mid October - bullish. COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal Front Month Premium - Bullish Supplementary Indicators: %R & Stochastic Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside. Good luck & good trading.
NYMEX:CLZ2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
Upside Ahead for Crude Oil - COT Strategy LongDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy LONG Crude Oil (CL) My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in CL if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal OI Analysis: Down move since July and recent consolidation has seen CM's getting more long. Valuation: Undervalued VS GOld True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for oil to go up to mid October. Front Month Premium: Front month delivery contracts selling at premium to further out contracts. This is bullish, and is a sign that we could see a commercially driven bull move. COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist Buy Signal Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside. Good luck & good trading.
NYMEX:CLV2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
Oil (CL) Should Continue Lower to Build an Impulsive StructureShort Term Elliott Wave View in Oil (CL) suggests that cycle from 4.12.2024 high is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 4.12.2024 high, wave (1) ended at 72.48 and rally in wave (2) ended at 84.55. The commodity has turned lower in wave (3) with internal subdivision as another impulse in lesser degree. Down from wave (2), wave (i) ended at 83.07 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 83.45. Oil then extended lower in wave (iii) towards 81.25 and wave (iv) ended at 82.16. Final leg wave (v) ended at 80.81 which completed wave ((i)) in higher degree. Wave ((ii)) unfolded in an expanded flat structure where wave (a) ended at 83.74. Wave (b) lower ended at 80.22, and rally in wave (c) ended at 83.82 which completed wave ((ii)). Oil has turned lower in wave ((iii)) ended at 76.40 low. The market built an expanded flat correction as wave ((iv)) finishing at 78.60 high and turned lower again. CL broke below wave ((iii)) to end wave ((v)) of 1 at 74.59 low and also we ended wave 1 of (3). Up from wave 1, the market bounce in a zig zag correction ending wave 2 at 78.88 high and starting wave 3 of (3) to the downside. After 5 swings lower, wave ((i)) of 3 completed at 71.67 low and currently we are calling 3 swings higher to end wave ((ii)) pullback before resuming lower. Therefore, we expect further downside to complete wave ((iii)) of 3. Near term, as far as pivot at 78.88 high stays intact, expect rallies to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Crude Oil Trade Idea for Next Week - CL CLK2024 USOIL Crude OilThe weekly candle close this week respected the bearish weekly volume imbalance, respected the bearish weekly orderblock, and failed to close above the previous weeks high. For this reason, I am targeting the PWL as a DOL. I will be looking for price to trade up into H4 premium arrays and reject from them. Once I see bearish arrays being respected on the H4, I will look for m15 bearish displacement to confirm entry with the PWL as the target.
NYMEX:CLK2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
CL WTI Crude Oil ShortMy weekly bias is for price to trade up to previous weeks highs, but Mondays price action has me leaning towards a pullback before we trade up mid/late week. Today's candle was quite bearish, so I am looking for price to trade down to Monday's lows, and possibly trade into the untapped lows from several daily candles formed last week. I want to see price trade into and respect a bearish premium array to trigger me to look for short entry on m5/m15.
NYMEX:CLJ2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
Crude oil back about $96 a barrel With the slowing of oil production and conflict at the Nile, I think that oil prices are going to increase, if the fed decides to cut or leave interest rates unchanged this may weaken the USD and strengthen other currencies creating more demand for oil and if inventory continues to lessen you will see a further surge in oil prices. otherwise, if the fed raises interest rates next week and productions issues come to resolve oil prices will begin to drop and I will update this post with a bearish Analysis.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by jewlstagara
Crude Oil Looking To Complete Impulse Elliott Wave SequenceCL_F (Crude Oil) favors higher in 5 wave Impulse Elliott Wave sequence as wave 1 before pullback starts. It placed (B) at $64.12 low on 3/20/2023. Above (B) low, it placed ((i)) at $71.67 high & ((ii)) at $66.82 low. ((ii)) was 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of ((i)). It favored ended ((iii)) at $81.81 high on 4/04/2023 high as extended ((iii)). Within ((iii)), it placed (i) at $74.37 high, (ii) at $72.61 low, (iii) at $81.69 high, (iv) at $79.00 low & (v) ended at $81.81 high as ((iii)) as 2.0 Fibonacci extension of ((i)). It ended ((iv)) at $79.37 low as double as shallow correction on 4/11/2023. Above ((iv)) low, it favors higher in ((v)) of 1. Above ((iv)) low of $79.37, it ended (i) of ((v)) at $81.85 high & (ii) at $81.28 low. It ended (iii) at $83.53 high & favors pullback in (iv) before upside resumes in (v) to finish ((v)) as wave 1. Impulse sequence expects to finish with momentum divergence in fifth wave against third wave before correction starts. So, if it erases the momentum divergence with more upside, then it can be the part of nest within impulse sequence before pullback starts. Once it finished wave 1 as impulse sequence, it expects to pullback in 3, 7 or 11 swings against 3/20/2023 low before turning higher. It expects to remain supported at extreme areas in pullback.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
$CL_F: Oil is flashing a bearish signalStagflation bros in shambles...Crude oil seems likely to collapse from here, which might be a tailwind for earnings over time. Inflation hysteria had reached insane levels, and perma bears and perma oil bull Canadian Fintwit types/value investors and other assorted flavors of losers of the 2009-2021 market had flocked to the theory that we would get stagflation and a period like the 70s. I know I've had my fair share of doubts regarding that but oil's chart is clear now, how can inflation go rampant with falling oil? Seems unlikely and probably a signal pointing to weaker demand than anticipated. I guess the easy market conditions for people shorting, bag holding oil or coal stocks, etc. are likely over here. Swings offered will be profitable but hard to capture if you're dogmatic about your market analysis and not flexible and paying attention to charts and ever changing conditions and news. My take is over time we have a series of tailwinds for the economy (like oil and the big fall in the dollar from the top) that will contribute to re-rating of asset prices this year. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by IvanLabrie
5
$CL_F: Time to buy oil...I'm already long via a number of energy stocks I have been buying recently but now Oil futures are finally onboard. I was thinking that inflation remaining stickier was proof of post COVID lock downs induced supply disruptions being still a factor, and now that we have China reopening and an increase in demand of 'atoms' thanks to the transition to renewable energy and electric vehicles, combined with the long term dynamics of nearshoring/onshoring/friendshoring, I think oil and oil stocks, biofuel producers, coal, refineries, etc. offer nice upside. Think that India and Mexico will require larger amounts of energy for the wave of industrial activity that will be unleashed there once Western firms move their production to ally nations rather than relying on China, while China reopens and activity resuming unleashes pent up demand on the same finite resources. It's an interesting juncture, and a recipe for potentially explosive upside in certain names. Let's see how this goes, pick your poison, as far as instruments better suited to express this view in the long term... Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by IvanLabrie
$XLE: Weekly and monthly uptrendNice signal in energy names. Macro and fiscal policy are sure making the Fed's life hard. The trend in commodities, energy, value vs growth remains bullish, same as the trend in the Dollar vs the Euro. The recent drop in inflation and oil created a very low risk buy opportunity in commodities in general. I've rotated away from my growth focused portfolio in the prior week, and am long $XLE and other names in my portfolio. I suggest you do the same, very interesting time, where the easy money disappeared from markets and people will likely get schooled time and time again trying to gamble in the same garbage names as between 2020 and 2022. Stay safe out there! Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:XLELong
by IvanLabrie