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#OIL: Monthly trend active...daily trend is downThe daily down trend signal that triggered today indicates we might get a retracement in the existing monthly uptrend in $WTICOUSD. Oil futures would be a great buy once the current fall slows down and reverses, so I'll keep my eyes wide open waiting for cues to go long into monthly support (see the green arc area). Upside over the long term is huge, so, it is of paramount importance to rejoin this trend when safe. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
1
$OXY: Monthly signal in oil active...I scooped some long term OTM calls here, gives me 10.5% notional exposure to oil via $OXY, risking 1% of my portfolio if the trade fails. Seems like a good way to be exposed to the big and steady trend in oil, I have already banked my other energy positions and oil futures options, this is a good way to stay exposed with minimal risk (since the weekly oil target was already reached, but monthly has a lot of room and time to go) Cheers! Best of luck, Ivan.
NYSE:OXYLong
by IvanLabrie
Watch the $DXY for $CL_F #Oil The recent move in the dollar has put a lot of pressure on oil recently...as it has been skidding around $80 the past few days. Yesterday's API report showed a small increase in oil inventories and the market is waiting for confirmation from EIA later today. It looks as though a confirmation has already been priced in and only an unexpected increase well above +600k barrels would shock the market to further downside in the short term. The structural market to watch is the dollar which has seen a 200 basis point move in a very short time frame. The DXY looks quite a bit extended. If we get a reversion to the mean in the dollar...oil should explode higher. Today we have quite a few Fed speakers and a 20 year bond auction which could move the dollar. So today may be a make or break day for oil.
ICEUS:DX1!
by cwmetz
Elliott Wave View: Oil Near Correction within Bullish MarketShort-term Elliott wave view in Oil (CL_F) suggests cycle from September 9, 2021 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from September 9 low, wave ((i)) ended at 73.14 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 69.67. It then resumed higher in wave ((iii)) towards 76.67 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 73.14. The 45 minutes chart below shows the subdivision of wave ((iv)) in zigzag structure. Down from wave ((iii)), wave (a) ended at 73.74, rally in wave (b) ended at 75.79, and wave (c) ended at 73.16. This completed wave ((iv)) in higher degree. Wave ((v)) remains in progress as 5 waves impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave ((iv)), wave (i) ended at 76.07 and dips in wave (ii) ended at 74.23. Oil then rallied to 79.48 and ended wave (iii). Expect a pullback in wave (iv) to be followed by one more push higher in wave (v). This should also complete wave ((v)) and end cycle from September 9, 2021 low as wave 1. The commodity should then pullback in larger degree wave 2 to correct cycle from September 9 low before the rally resumes. Near term, expect cycle from September 9, 2021 low to end soon, and larger pullback to happen in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes. Chasing the upside in the shorter cycle therefore is risky and it’s best to wait at the sidelines for larger pullback before looking for buying opportunity.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Macro - "A Permanently High Plateau"Idea for Oil/Macro: - The bottom line is that the inflation narrative is driven by one commodity - Oil. - Price is at a 40 year resistance. - The only thing actually holding up the price of oil is OPEC+ agreeing to cut production (Artificial inflation). - QE is actually deflationary, all it does is put a floor on markets and suppresses volatility and creates speculative bubbles, the money doesn't directly leave the banking system. All bubbles pop. - Right now there is price inflation due to supply chain disruptions and commodity prices - but speculative bubbles in commodity prices are already collapsing. They will all follow. - Global productivity is on a decline, see GDP Growth Rate, World Manufacturing Output. - The artificial growth you see now is debt driven. See Debt as % of GDP. Appearances over results. - Unemployment numbers can be suppressed with cheap and unskilled jobs, but take a look at declining quality of jobs. - Equity prices follow forward inflation expectations. They are falling: fred.stlouisfed.org Why would anyone buy a risk asset when inflation is expected to decline? They would just be in appreciating cash. - The reversal is caused by the global credit impulse. Credit is an actual inflationary force. - What is happening now in Equities is that banks and companies are simply using margin debt for leveraged stock buybacks, boosting EPS. - Zombie companies are not allowed to fail, and money losers are flooding the market with shares - raising more money than moneymakers. This is Euphoria. - However, easy credit is over. Now credit contractions are spilling over to US - see Wells Fargo cutting personal lines of credit. - Debt will be called, particularly from overseas - see Evergrande. - PBOC has been draining liquidity in China via RRP, US preparing to do the same via RRP. It is the first step of Tapering and the effects will be felt in the coming weeks. If you think about it, it does not make sense for the economy to be booming during a global pandemic crisis, despite what the media is blaring. It is debt fueled, and can it handle the next crisis? The pandemic is not even over yet, by a long shot. If you have an understanding of the internals of markets, correlations and the liquidity flows, you can see macro trends as they develop and predict them. When oil reverses, the reflation trade will be over. Same with gold - this can be a distribution pattern (the inflation fears were priced in and distributed already): Bitcoin - Speculative risk asset already collapsed: Lumber - Great canary and speculative risk asset collapsed: It's all the same story for bond yields and currencies: DXY - Dollar seems to have found a base: Bond Yields: AUDJPY: EURUSD: CHFAUD - Indicating some fear: Significant warnings: - SP500 vs Margin Debt - SP500 vs Real Earnings Yield - SP500 vs Real Dividend Yield - US Quarterly Equity Offerings - Collapsing Market Breadth - Transports turning down - Rydex Bull/Bear ratio - Market internals not confirming low volume ATHs (bearish divergences) PC Ratio reaching lows not seen for 10 years: SKEW reaching ATH while VIX is crushed - Smart money + insiders positioning in accumulation phase: We might get a few more high inflation prints due to lagging effects, but commodities will crater once retail is completely positioned for inflation. Speculate that market conditions have changed such that crashes like the COVID crash will be regular occurrence, due to the options market being the real market. Speculate the reversal Jul. 12-Jul. 14, downtrend through Aug into a capitulation on Sept Quad Witching. "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau" - Irving Fisher, 1929, days before the market began crashing to total -89.2%. GLHF - DPT
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
1
Elliott Wave View: OIL Can Extend Lower In CorrectionShort term Elliott wave view in OIL ( $CL_F) suggests that the main cycle from April 2020 low remain bullish to the upside favoring more upside. Near-term, the rally from 01 November 2020 low unfolded as an impulse sequence where wave 3 of (1) ended at $47.88 high. While wave 4 ended at $45.88 low, wave 5 ended at $49.42 high. Thus completed wave (1) at $49.42 high. Down from there, the correction in wave (2) pullback remains in progress & expected to find buyers in a 3 or 7 swing structure. Below from $49.42 high, the pullback seems to be unfolding as an Elliott wave zigzag structure where wave A ended at $46.25 low. While in wave B bounce OIL is doing a shorter-term flat correction where lesser degree wave ((a)) ended at $48.15 high, wave ((b)) ended at $46.16 low, and wave ((c)) remain in progress in a lesser degree 5 wave sequence. While in wave ((c)) wave (i) ended at $47.25 high. Wave (ii) ended at $46.94 low, wave (iii) ended at $48.50 high, wave (iv) ended at $47.91 low. Wave (v) is now looking for another push higher approximately towards $48.99- $49.25 area to retest the peak before ending the flat correction & starting the wave C lower while the pivot from $49.42 high stays intact. We don’t recommend selling it as the main trend remains bullish to the upside. OIL 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Elliott Wave View: Correction in Oil CompletedElliott Wave View of Oil (CL) suggests the cycle from August 26 high has ended as wave II. The correction unfolded as double three Elliott Wave Structure. Down from August 26 high, wave ((W)) ended at 40.22 low. The bounce in wave ((X)) ended at 41.87 high. Afterwards, the commodity resumed lower and ended wave ((Y)) at 36.21 low. This ended wave II pullback in the higher degree. Since then, the commodity has resumed the rally higher. Up from wave II low, wave 1 ended at 38.45 high. Wave 2 dip unfolded as zigzag correction and ended at 36.67 low. Currently, wave 3 higher is in progress. The subdivision of wave 3 is unfolding as 5 waves impulse structure. Wave ((i)) ended at 37.82 high and wave ((ii)) dip ended at 36.82 low. Wave ((iii)) higher ended at 40.34 high. Afterwards, pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 39.51 low. Oil can push for another high before ending wave 3 and followed by a pullback in wave 4 later. As long as 36.21 low stays intact, expect the dips in 3,7 or 11 swings to find support. However, oil still needs to break above August 26 high at 43.78 to confirm that next leg higher in wave III has already started. Otherwise, wave II could still unfold as a double correction before upside resume again.
NYMEX:CLV2020
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Elliott Wave View: Further Upside in Oil (CL)Elliott Wave View of Oil (CL) suggests the correction against the cycle from July 30 low has ended as wave B. The dip unfolded as running flat Elliott Wave Structure. Down from August 5 high, wave ((a)) ended at 41.33 low. The bounce in wave ((b)) ended at 43.29 high. Afterwards, the commodity resumed lower and ended wave ((c)) at 41.45 low. This ended wave B pullback in the higher degree. Since then, the commodity has extended higher and broke above August 5 high, confirming that the next leg higher in wave C has already started. Up from wave B low, wave (i) ended at 42.89 high and wave (ii) dip ended at 42.42 low. The commodity then extended higher in wave (iii) towards 43.57 high. Wave (iv) pullback then ended at 42.77 low. Currently, wave (v) is still in progress and could see another marginal high before ending 5 waves up from August 21 low as wave ((i)). Afterwards, 3 waves pullback should happen before upside resume again. As long as 41.45 low stays intact, expect the dips in 3,7 or 11 swings to find support. The structure from July 30 low is unfolding as zigzag Elliott Wave Structure. Therefore, the potential target to the upside for Oil in wave C would be 100-161.8% extension of A-B between 46-49 area.
NYMEX:CLV2020
by Elliottwave-Forecast