$EURUSD - NO FLASEBREAK SIGNAL BUT CLASSIC CONSOLIDATIONEURUSD didn't make a daily close below the trendline to produce a false break signal, and ojectively it has in fact signals some more. Looking at the head and shoulder topping structure while assuming the September top is in, this is a classic consolidation pattern of tight trading ranges forming a harmonious ABC move, so and I'd expect a solid turn at next key levels. 1.1880 is a closed eyes sell imo with room to average up above. In small already but may shed some tomorrow and sell better levels.
Fundamentally, latest PMI's showing improvement in the manufacturing but services rebound has been very slow. Covid is ravaging through Europe, UK and USA and others at staggering rates of daily new cases and there will be another demand shock to global markets at the rate this is going. Governments will have no choice but to impose stricter measures on social distancing, mask wearing etc and this will have a lasting effect on the services sectors, which for many economies is by far the largest contributor to a countries GDP.
The ripple out effects can be far-reaching and and governments and ECB will have to provide more economic relief and stimlus. Whilst the Federal Reserve is likely to sit on their hands and hoping inflation would just run hot from here, the ECB is already faced with low inflation pressures and the sudden EUR strength will not help them be any closer to creating some moderate inflation. I think this gives them room to take actions that will slightly weaken the EUR whilst providing more monetary support to fiscal measures.
