May WTI CL K LongFeb 17 18:00 AEDT
March Futures expire next week hence I am using "K" May 17.
As at Feb 7 Net Long CoT Managed Money stood at 360k open
interest. (Source CME Group)
I commented on the Weekly Chart last week, but thought
I would add my view on the Daily, since I am now long oil.
I believe this chart shows a bull flag on the late Nov 2016 rise.
I have an up sloping channel, with support at 53.10, 53.43 and 53.74.
The 53.10 support is formed from the breakout and now re-test on
the Jun and Oct highs.
The lower flag boundary met good volume on Feb 8 .. 10 as did Jan 11.
The last four displayed bars is consolidation of that volume push,
and at the time of writing this my 53.50 area is holding.
I have observed that breakouts generally never reach their last extrema,
but commence mid channel, therefore I will accept a move down to
my marked 53.10 line and add positions at my support levels.
The long upper pins (Dec 12 and Jan 3) indicate heavy selling pressure,
but validates that boundary as a resistance level and profit target.
A valid Flag upside breakout will add $8.30 targeting $60+
from the Flag low ... whatever that turns out to be.
It then needs to take out the 54.76 and 54.97 pivot points.
So this is contrary to the current bearish view, but that is my current view and
... just my 2c worth
