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Cmefutures

BTC Futures Analysis: Key Levels, and Potential ScenariosBig Picture: BTC Futures reached a new high at 108,960 last Tuesday Dec 17, 2024. FED rate decision and 2025 rate cut projections tampered down from 4 to 2 resulted in market sell-off. BTC futures were also down reaching a low of 92,355 on Friday and closing at 96,600. CME Futures halt early tomorrow and are closed on Wednesday Dec 25th, 2024 for Christmas holiday. We also have a very light economic calendar. Lower liquidity during the holiday period may push prices in either direction. Key Levels to Watch: Nov 18th Week Hi: 101,110 Dec 10th Low: 94,785 Last Week Low: 92,355 LIS (Line in Sand) for short-term bulls: 92000- 90,000 support zone. Scenario 1: Consolidation Above Key Support BTC futures further consolidate between Dec 10th Low and Nov 18th Week Hi at 101,110. Price did not close below LIS last week. As long as this support holds, price holding above 94,785 may provide a setup towards 100,000- 101,110. Scenario: 2: reakdown below LIS Break down of LIS will see a deeper pull back towards 78,000. Here it will be a wait and see approach for BTC futures to hold below 90,000 mark and expect further downside if buyers fail to push prices back above. Disclaimer: The views expressed are opinions and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Derivatives involve a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors.
CME:BTC1!
by EdgeClear
ES Futures Trade Idea: Santa Rally Expectationswww.tradingview.com The ES futures market has maintained a bullish trajectory in 2024, with few pullbacks along the way. Currently, the futures are consolidating near All-Time Highs, setting the stage for a pivotal week ahead. Key Catalysts to Watch Wednesday, December 18th, 2024 FED Interest Rate Decision Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) FOMC Meeting These events could provide the momentum needed to fuel a potential Santa Claus Rally. However, whether this materializes remains uncertain. Additional Economic Data The economic calendar this week is packed with key data releases, beginning with the preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI readings at 8:45 AM CT today. On Tuesday, the spotlight will be on November US Retail Sales, while Thursday, December 19th, 2024, brings a flurry of critical updates, including the Bank of England (BOE) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate decisions, Q3 US GDP, initial jobless claims, and November existing home sales. The week concludes on Friday, with the release of the FED’s preferred Core PCE Price Index for November at 7:30 AM CT, offering fresh insights into inflation trends. Key Levels to Watch: Target for Bulls: 6295-6310 Line in Sand (LIS): 6045-6055 R1: 6105-6115 R2: 6145-6155 R3: 6195-6205 S1: 5970-5960 S2: 5855-5835 Key Support S3: 5735-5745 Possible Scenarios Scenario 1: Sustained Bullish Movement and Santa Rally In this bullish case, ES futures break out of the consolidation zone following the FED announcements. This could lead to a year-end rally with prices targeting the Fibonacci extension level at 6312.50, setting the stage for continued gains into Q1 2025. Scenario 2: Santa Rally Followed by Pullback Here, the FED-driven Santa rally kicks off but encounters resistance. After the initial bullish push, the market consolidates into year-end as traders await fresh inflows and sector rotations in January for the next directional move. Both scenarios hinge on key data releases and market reaction to the FED’s guidance. Keep an eye on the Line in the Sand (LIS) at 6045–6055, as it represents a critical level for the ongoing trend. This week’s calendar is packed with high-impact events that could drive volatility and shape the near-term outlook for ES futures. Stay prepared! Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal opinions and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Derivatives involve a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by EdgeClear
Gold Futures Trade Idea Gold futures have broken out of multi-year resistance levels and are trading near all-time highs. After trending higher for most of 2024, the focus shifts to where prices will move in 2025 and the remaining weeks of the year. Several macroeconomic factors will influence gold's trajectory, including: 1. Geopolitical landscape 2. Interest rates and inflation outlook 3. Supply and demand dynamics In the next two weeks, significant data points and economic events will shape the market. Central banks worldwide are set to adjust interest rates. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 bps on December 18, 2024. Key considerations will include any shift in language about future rate cuts and the dot plot from the upcoming meeting. Additionally, the U.S. CPI report, due Wednesday, will be closely watched. Key Levels to Watch: Line in the Sand (LIS): 2673.80–2684.50 Resistance: 2740–2760 Support: 2552.50–2566.80 Three Possible Scenarios for Gold Futures Prices: 1. Bullish Break Above LIS: A breakout and sustained hold above the LIS could push prices higher toward resistance levels. This scenario might be driven by softer CPI data on Wednesday and the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, including potential future rate cuts. A lower inflation environment could provide further tailwinds for gold. 2. Pullback Toward Support: If prices break and hold below the LIS, clearing recent consolidation lows around 2630, a decline toward the support zone is likely. This scenario aligns with persistent inflation, leading to a "higher for longer" interest rate environment in 2025. Additionally, easing geopolitical tensions under the new U.S. administration could shift focus toward domestic policies, potentially reducing gold's safe-haven appeal. 3. Range-Bound Price Action: Gold prices could consolidate near current highs, trading within a range below all-time highs. This scenario reflects a lack of decisive inflows or outflows, with market participants waiting for clearer cues to shape the price trajectory in 2025. As the year concludes, the interplay between macroeconomic factors and technical levels will determine whether gold continues its upward momentum, retraces to support, or stabilizes in a range. Stay tuned for key economic releases to guide near-term price action. Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal opinions and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Derivatives involve a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors.
COMEX:GC1!
by EdgeClear
WTI Crude Oil 2024: Range-Bound Trends and Key LevelsBig Picture: WTI Crude Oil Futures prices have been largely range-bound for most of 2024 with yearly low of 62.54 and high at 81.75 defining the trading range. Analyzing the Composite Volume Profile since January 2022 reveals that 2024’s price action has been contained within the Composite Value Area High (CVAH) at $79.91 and Composite Value Area Low (CVAL) at $63.57 We further note that while there are many bearish and bullish analyses for crude oil floating from different market analysts, market auction theory and charts point towards further range bound price action for December 2024 and foreseeable 2025 ahead until proven otherwise. OPEC+ meeting is scheduled to take place on December 5th, 2024. It was previously planned to take place on Dec 1st, 2024. The change accommodates the Kuwait Summit, with Saudi Arabia and its allies expected to discuss production quotas—a decision that could influence market dynamics. Additionally, U.S. crude oil production in 2024 has reached record-high levels. Geopolitical issues have not had a major impact on Crude prices as prices remain range bound. Intraday volatility remains amidst geopolitical uncertainty. WTI Crude Oil Key Levels: CVAH : 79.91 CVAL : 63.57 2024 Yearly Mid : 72.15 2024 Yearly Lo : 62.54 2024 CVAH : 75.60 2024 CVAL : 66.97 Market Scenarios: Short Term Resistance (2024 Mid and CVAH) : Price movements toward the upper range (CVAH at $79.91 or $75.60) could signal buyer exhaustion, with limited upside momentum expected. Short Term Support (CVAL and Yearly Low) : Movements toward lower levels (CVAL at $63.57 or $66.97) may indicate seller exhaustion, preventing a significant breakdown. As crude oil remains range-bound, traders should monitor these key levels and the OPEC+ meeting outcomes for potential catalysts. Until then, the market appears set to maintain its current trading range. Disclaimer : The views expressed are personal opinions and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Derivatives involve a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
Bitcoin’s CME futures gap gives a clue for the 1st big correctonAnytime you see a gap in price action like this they almost always get filled, and typically get filled sooner than later. So while there is a chance bitcoin could turn the current mild retracement into a deeper pullback that goes down to fill this gap, until the current support on btc is broken, which is the top trendline of the rising wedge it now currently has 3 consecutive daily candles above(not shown here), I think it’s more probable that bitcoin waits for a much more powerful resistance line that results in a much stronger rejection before it corrects back down far enough to fill this gap. If the current pullback doesn’t lead to the gap fill then my guess is once we retest the top green trendline of this group of channels: That this would be the perfect time to have our first significant correction of the current parabolic phase of the bull market. I will be prepared for either zone to have a chance to fill that gap and plan accordingly, Also a few measured move targets around the 115 - 116k range so a pullback could potentially occur around that zone as well. *not financial advice*
CME:BTC1!
by DrDovetail
Will ETH Fill Its CME Futures Gap at $3,000?ETH CME futures gap between the $3,000 and $3,150 levels is expected to be filled before a potential upward movement. Historically, 95% of CME futures gaps have been filled, suggesting that this pattern may repeat. The $3,000 level serves as a strong psychological support for ETH, and once the gap is filled, a significant bounce from the $3,000 level can be anticipated. BINANCE:ETHUSDT BINANCE:ETHUSDT.P BITSTAMP:ETHUSD Regards Hexa
CME:ETH1!
by HexaTrades
What’s Putting Crude Oil Prices Under Pressure?At a Glance With vehicle efficiency up and China's economy slowing, WTI crude oil prices experienced late summer lows, though they have since started to rebound Driving would need to increase by nearly 2% each year to keep fuel demand stable Crude oil prices fell sharply in late August and early September. Does this mean that oil is a bargain? The answer is complex. For starters, OPEC+ has taken 3.6 million barrels per day off of the market over the past two years. Secondly, geopolitical tensions remain high. What explains oil’s weakness despite these factors that ordinarily might have supported prices? Vehicle Efficiency The average car in model year 2024 will likely be able to drive as much as 24% further on the same amount of fuel as a similar car from model year 2012. Since a car typically lasts about 12 years, this means that each year drivers around the world need to drive about 2% further than the year before just to keep demand stable. In the U.S., drivers aren’t driving any further than they were back in 2019. Demand From China Last year, 35% of new cars sold in China were EVs, and this year that could grow to over 50%. China’s economy is also growing more slowly than in the past. Since 2005, oil prices have often peaked about one year after peaks in China’s pace of growth. China’s growth rate last crested in 2021, and oil prices peaked a year later in 2022. Moreover, China’s economy decelerated sharply over the summer which might deprive oil of a critical source of demand growth going into late 2024 and into next year. Finally, watch for OPEC+ decisions later this year, which could potentially boost output. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out CME Group data plans available on TradingView to suit your trading needs: tradingview.com/cme/ By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
NYMEX:CL1!
by CME_Group
BTC CME 2 Day Points of interest $49K low coming?!?I have back tested this and there are 4 downward points of interest, all the wat down to 32K!! Don't think 32 will happen , but never retested. The white circles are where I have buys in, I do think that the low will be a kiss down to the circle between the 6.18 and the 7.86, the previous high before this run has never been tested either. when the market runs up fast and high then its has a long way down for a retest, otheise the yop will come too early look at 200 & 50 MA also
CME:BTC1!Short
by Chefrusty
2
Nasdaq 100 - Futures Day Trading - 15min HypoYesterday we took the all-time high with a liquidity sweep creating a market structure shift on the 15min timeframe. Asia/London session is now in a range market. 8.30 Am we have Canadian CPI news. Careful for manipulation. I will be looking for clear indications and confirmation to trade in direction of the American market open. The overall value migration is up for long term investors, however with this temporary market structure shift model I will be looking for an intraday short when sweeping Asia/London highs.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Aryaman_SmartContracts
WTI. Expecting and Suggestions about it.Good day. WTI. Last month showed interesting upward and downward movements; in anticipation, everything closed for an upward movement. Due to the instability in the Middle East and lower Africa, and indeed in the world, these factors influence more likely the Growth of Oil, but let's move on to the Technical Picture. Since the beginning of the year it is trading above 10% growth. The 10% level is the closing price of the year - 71.65 = 78.81. Next we have the expected levels of 15 and 20% growth - 82.39 and 85.98. Looking at the 1Month Charts, we see a picture of the absorption of December trade into January. Moving on to Weekly - We see that since the week of January 29 it has been trading in this range (Inside Bar itself is a very strong combination) and it is breaking through upwards. That's why she says growth. The support level remains at 78.81, if suddenly there is a false breakout. Next, we see that Exponential Averages say that the price passes the Annual from bottom to top, and the Quarterly and Monthly are lined up at an Angle in growth. Further, using Donchian, building a corridor of Highs and Lows for the period, and we look at the quarterly range, which breaks through at the Highs level at 79.62. Therefore, the Course for this month is clear. For the most part, 80% expect growth, depending on the Situation. Thank you all. Goodness and Peace to all
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by OpnTrader
As Inflation Retreats, How Will Equities Perform in 2024?During the 1990s and again in the 2010s, equity and bond investors celebrated a goldilocks economy. GDP and employment growth were solid and core inflation remained comfortably around 2% per year despite increasingly tight labor markets. That scenario was occasionally interrupted, notably by the tech wreck recession in 2001, the 2008 global financial crisis, and most recently by the pandemic-era surge in inflation. But by late 2023, inflation appeared to be coming down globally. Comparing the annualized inflation rates during the six months from December 2022 to May 2023, and the six months from June to November 2023, inflation rates have fallen sharply in every major economy (Figure 1). Figure 1: Core inflation rates are falling rapidly worldwide Source: Bloomberg Professional (CPI XYOY, CACPTYOY, UKHCA9IC, CPIEXEMUY, JPCNEFEY, ACPMXVLY, NOCPULLY, CPEXSEYY, SZEXIYOY, NZCPIYOY) Granted, things still don’t feel great for consumers, who appear to be less sensitive to the rate of change in prices than they are to level of prices which remain high and are still climbing, albeit at a slower pace than before. Nevertheless, it appears that the main drivers of inflation -- supply chain disruptions (Figure 2) and surging government spending (Figure 3) -- subsided long ago. Supply chain disruptions sent the prices of manufactured goods soaring beginning in late 2020. Depressed pandemic-era services prices initially masked the surge in inflation, but services prices began soaring as the world reopened in 2021 and 2022 driven by surging government spending, which created new demand but no new supply of goods and services. Since then, however, supply chain disruptions have faded despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and with little impact thus far from the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Moreover, government spending has rapidly contracted as pandemic-era support programs have expired despite some increases in spending related to infrastructure and the military. As such, not even the low levels of unemployment prevailing in Europe, U.S. and elsewhere appear to be sustaining the rates of inflation witnessed in 2021 and 2022. Figure 2: Supply chain disruptions drove inflation in manufactured goods in 2020 and 2021. Source: Bloomberg Professional (WCIDLASH and WDCISHLA) Figure 3: U.S. government spending has fallen from 35% to 22.6% of GDP Source: Bloomberg Professional (FFSTCORP, FFSTIND, FFSTEMPL, FFSTEXC, FFSTEST, FFSTCUST, FFSTOTHR, GDP CUR$, FDSSD), CME Group Economic Research Calculations U.S. core CPI is still running at 4% year on year but its annualized pace slowed to 2.9%. What’s more is that in the U.S. most of the increase in CPI has come from one component: owners’ equivalent rent, which imputes a rent that homeowners theoretically pay themselves based off actual rents on nearby properties. Outside of owners’ equivalent rent, inflation in the U.S. is back to 2%, its pre-pandemic norm (Figure 4). Figure 4: U.S. inflation is much lower when excluding home rental Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg Professional (CPI YoY and CPI XYOY) Moreover, inflation in China has been running close to zero in recent months and has sometimes even shown year-on-year declines. In China, real estate grew to be as much as 28% of GDP, and the sector is now rapidly contracting. China’s year-on-year pace of growth for 2023 looks solid at around 5%, but that’s not too impressive given than the year-on-year growth rate compares to 2022, when the country spent much of the year in COVID lockdowns. By the end of 2023, China’s manufacturing and services sectors were both in a mild contraction, according to the country’s purchasing manager index data. If growth doesn’t improve in 2024, China may export deflationary pressures to the rest of the world. That doesn’t mean that the are no upward risks to prices. If the Israel-Hamas war broadens and interrupts oil supplies through the Suez Canal, that could reignite inflation. Moreover, green infrastructure spending, rising military spending, near-shoring as well as demographic trends in places like South Korea, Japan, China and Europe that limit the number of new entrants in the global labor market could potentially keep upward pressure on inflation. For the moment, however, any inflationary impacts from geopolitical or demographic factors appear to be overwhelmed by the usual set of factors keeping inflation contained including technological advancement and large labor cost differentials among nations. So, what does this mean for investors? As we begin 2024, fixed income investors are pricing about 200 basis points (bps) of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve over the next 24 months, and the S&P 500 is trading close to a record high. Be warned, however, interest rate expectations have been extremely volatile over the past 12 months, oscillating between expecting rate hikes to rate cuts by as many as 200 bps or more (Figure 5). If we continue to see strong employment and consumer spending numbers combined with weakening inflation numbers, this may keep rate expectations caught in a volatile crosscurrent. Figure 5: Investors price steep Fed cuts but rate expectations are extremely volatile Source: Bloomberg Professional (FDTRMID, FFZ15...FFZ25), CME Economic Research Calculations Moreover, while equities did well in 2023, their rally was narrow, driven by only a handful of large tech and consumer discretionary stocks, while most other stocks including small caps were largely left behind. Finally, the stock market itself isn’t cheap. The S&P 500 is trading at 23.37x earnings and the Nasdaq 100 at 59x earnings. As a percentage of GDP, the S&P 500’s market is still close to historic highs. Finally, even with 2023’s rally, the indexes are trading at basically the same levels at which they ended 2021 (Figure 6). Part of the reason stocks did so well in the 1990s and 2010s is that they started out those decades cheap. The same cannot be said of the starting values for 2024 (Figure 7). Figure 6: Nasdaq and S&P 500 are near end of 2021 levels but the Russell 2000 lags behind Source: Bloomberg Professional (SPX, NDX and RTY) Figure 7: Going into 2024, equities aren’t cheap like they were in 1994 or 2014 Source: Bloomberg Professional (SPX, GDP CUR$, USGG10YR). If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by CME_Group
Economic Lessons From 2023We entered 2023 with a pessimistic consensus outlook for U.S. economic performance and for how rapidly inflation might recede. As it happened, there was no recession, and personal consumption posted sustained strength. Inflation, except shelter, declined dramatically from its 2022 peak. The big economic driver in 2023 was job growth. Jobs had recovered all their pandemic losses by mid-2022 and continued to post strong growth in 2023, partly due to many people returning to the labor force. When the economy is adding jobs, people are willing to spend money. The key for real GDP in 2023 was the strong job growth that led to robust personal consumption spending. For 2024, labor force growth and job growth are anticipated by many to slow down from the unexpectedly strong pace of 2023, leading to slower real GDP growth in 2024. And there is still plenty of debate about whether a slowdown in 2024 could turn into a recession. Followers of the inverted yield curve will point out that it was only in Q4 2023 that the yield curve decisively inverted (meaning short-term rates are higher than long-term yields). It is often cited that it takes 12 to 18 months after a yield curve inversion for a recession to commence. Using that math, Q2 2024 would be the time for economic weakness to appear based on this theory. Only time will tell. The rapid pace of inflation receding in the first half of 2023 was a very pleasant surprise. Indeed, inflation is coming under control by virtually every measure except one: shelter. The calculation of shelter inflation is highly controversial for its use of owners’ equivalent rent, which assumes the homeowner rents his house to himself and receives the income. This is an economic fiction that many argue dramatically distorts headline CPI, given that owners’ equivalent rent is 25% of the price index. Once one removes owners’ equivalent rent from the inflation calculation, inflation is only 2%, and one can better appreciate why the Federal Reserve has chosen to pause its rate hikes, even as it keeps its options open to raise rates if inflation were to unexpectedly rise again. The bottom line is that monetary policy reached a restrictive stance in late 2022 and was tightened a little more in 2023. For a data dependent Fed, inflation and jobs data for 2024 will guide us as to what might happen next. Good numbers on inflation or a recession might mean rate cuts. Otherwise, the Fed might just keep rates higher for longer. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Bluford Putnam, Managing Director & Chief Economist, CME Group *Various CME Group affiliates are regulated entities with corresponding obligations and rights pursuant to financial services regulations in a number of jurisdictions. Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available below. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by CME_Group
12