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Bitcoin's Resilience Amidst Bear Market: A Technical Outlook 📊"DISCLAIMER!! This is a 'worst-case' scenario/theory which is still bullish. Bitcoin also has a "monthly bearish-divergence on monthly, which would be the first time this has printed on the Bitcoin: INDEX chart. Also there are other variables such as black-swans/wars, CME-GAP, Declining volume on this whole 'rally' up. Also the first time Bitcoin has made a new all-time-high before a halving.(Blackrock-manipulation(prolonging bear-market-rally) "" "My current theoretical analysis suggests Bitcoin is testing a breakout from the cyclical triangle pattern observed in the last market cycle. If confirmed, this could signal the end of the bear market. There are speculations that BlackRock may have engaged in strategic market activities, potentially inflating Bitcoin's value to create a bullish sentiment during a bear market rally. This orchestrated optimism is believed to have sustained the price levels." Revisiting Triangular Patterns: A Classic Continuation? 🔺✨ Bitcoin's recent price actions suggest a retest of the structural integrity within a macro triangular pattern. Despite the bearish sentiments, the chart displays a potential 'higher low,' indicating an underlying strength. This scenario, if supported by volume and market participation, could signal the tapering off of the bear market. Black Swan Events and Market Dynamics 🦢🔄 The term 'Black swans' references unforeseen events with substantial market impact. The chart alludes to such events as pivotal in Bitcoin's trajectory, though it's critical to recognize that market manipulation allegations like those suggested against Black Rock require substantial evidence and are beyond technical analysis purview. Bullish Sentiments and Market Manipulation Claims 📈⚖️ While the narrative of market manipulation can influence short-term price movements, long-term trends in Bitcoin have shown resilience to such factors. The claim that bullish sentiments have artificially sustained prices is challenging to substantiate without concrete data. Higher-Low: The Bullish Bastion ⬆️🛡️ The chart points to a 'higher-low' formation, a classic bullish signal. This pattern reflects buyers stepping in at higher price levels than previous lows, suggesting an upward momentum. Bear Market Exit: A Technically Supported Theory? 🐻🔚 The conclusion that Bitcoin is testing the last cycle's triangle apex could be indicative of a bear market conclusion. However, this would need validation through other indicators like moving averages, RSI, and MACD, beyond the scope of the current visual data. Takeaway: Analyzing the Apex 🎯📝 Bitcoin's endurance of a macro 'higher-low' amidst a bearish cycle suggests optimism. However, reliance on a single pattern or market rumors for prediction is precarious. A holistic technical analysis, incorporating diverse indicators and market sentiment, provides a more robust framework for future price movement speculation. Conclusion: Informed Caution Is Key 🔍🔑 While the theory presents an optimistic case for Bitcoin, prudent investors should seek confirmation through a broad technical lens, mindful of market volatility and the speculative nature of cryptocurrencies. 📈 Please note: This analysis does not constitute financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Always conduct thorough research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Shibunacci
#bitcoin #btc has closed a historical #CME #GAPAs you see on the chart, there was very important #CMEFUTURES gap at 35 - 36K area which was opened in #luna collapse times. Now, #btcusdt price has CLOSED this historical gap and what now? It' s too early to say #btcprice will go on through the #bullrun or " BTC will directly go to close the OTHER historical GAP at 20 - 21K region!.." Now, just relax and watch the #market and especially #BTCdominance. #BTCD will reveal the direction of the market. I will update my thoughts. As you see on the chart, there only 1 #CME #FUTURES #GAP left at 20 - 21K region. Don' t underestimate this and also don' t be pessimistic, just carefully watch #bitcoin moves. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. Dyor.
CME:BTC1!
by naphyse
Understanding Bitcoin CME Gaps: Importance/Trading StrategiesBitcoin CME Gaps are price gaps that occur in the Bitcoin futures market, specifically on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). These gaps happen when the closing price of a Bitcoin futures contract on the CME differs significantly from the opening price of the next contract. Here's why they are important and how to trade them briefly: Importance: Technical Analysis: Traders often pay attention to CME Gaps because they can act as significant support or resistance levels on Bitcoin's price chart. Market Psychology: These gaps can signal abrupt shifts in market sentiment, which can influence future price movements. Volatility: Bitcoin is known for its price volatility, and CME Gaps can exacerbate price swings, making them important for risk management. How to Trade: Fill the Gap: Some traders believe that CME Gaps tend to get "filled" eventually, meaning that Bitcoin's price will return to the level of the gap and close it. They might place buy orders just above the gap and sell orders just below it. Confirmation: It's essential to wait for confirmation before trading CME Gaps. This can include observing price action, volume, and overall market sentiment. Risk Management: Trading CME Gaps can be risky. Use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses, and don't bet too much of your capital on a single trade. Remember that while CME Gaps can be significant, they are not foolproof trading signals, and trading cryptocurrencies is inherently risky. It's crucial to have a well-thought-out trading plan and consider other factors, such as fundamental analysis and market news, in your decision-making process.
CME:BTC1!
by sailortrades
BTC Long, bottom or another bear trap?28.5k is the invalidation line for continued bull momo. Close below it on the dailv and I think BTC either sees another bear trap/ deviation to 26k followed by a bull reversal to 37k. If the bear trap is set it is extremely risky to play. If it fails, BTC could hit at least 23k for AUG and 20k to 18.8k for SEP because both are statistically red months during the recovery phase of previous bull runs. However, there is a minor bull case for the bulls considering we are at the bottom end of a linear regression trend from the bottom at 16k to the current price. Nonetheless, I do expect volatility soon. Trades: Trade 1 Long 28650, sl 28000, tp 30500, 32000, 36500, 40000 Conviction moderate. High chance of getting stopped out if 28.5k keeps getting tested and removing liquidity from that region. Trade 2 Long 26300, sl 24000, tp 30500, 32000, 36500, 40000 Conviction high. Lowered chance of getting stopped out and if a bear trap were to occur, this is the ideal entry. Trade 3 Short 30500, sl 32000, tp 28500, 26500 (close here if there's bull volume), 24500, 21000, 19500 Conviction moderate. Might get front runned ~29.5k. but use this trade as a hedge against another false rally that leads into a bear trap ~26k, or even worse at 20k if theres no bullish volume for the expected trap.
CME:BTC1!Long
by linebands
Decoding Bitcoin's Latest CME Gap: An Insightful AnalysisOver the past weekend, Bitcoin experienced a significant sell-off, causing a price discrepancy to form, commonly referred to as a 'gap'. This gap is discernible between the present Bitcoin market price and the closing price from last Friday (as per New York time). Notably, these gaps, often identified in futures markets such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), can serve as potential signals for traders. It's currently anticipated that this gap could be filled in the near future. The phenomenon of 'filling the gap' refers to the price retracing its steps back to the level before the gap was formed, thus restoring market equilibrium. The market's response to this development will be closely watched by traders and investors alike.
Long
by p3nchan
1
Bitcoin - New CME GAP! + All unfilled GAPS (cheat) Bitcoin has created a new CME GAP between 28215 - 28265. It's also the POC of the consolidation structure, so it could be a good short-term trade when the price makes a pullback. First, let me explain some important facts about CME gaps. CME Futures on Bitcoin started in December 2017. We had dozens of unfilled gaps from 2017 - 2023, and all of them have been filled. So the statistical probability of filling these gaps on Bitcoin is 100%. When the CME futures started, the huge bear market of 2017–2018 started, and Bitcoin crashed by 84%. Let me remind you (if you forget it), that the major CME GAP between 20330 - 21110 is completely uncovered, and the question is when we will cover it. It can take a few weeks or a few months, or maybe later. Time is not important. In total, we have 3 unfilled GAPs on the daily chart. One is above the current price between 34450 - 35180. Two are below the current price, between 28215 - 28265 and 20330 - 21110. On the left side of the chart, you can see fair value GAPS on the spot market. These gaps tend to be filled if they are massive, and these gaps are extremely huge. In my opinion, we are going to go down sooner or later, fill them, and take liquidity below 15.5k. It could happen in Q4-2023 or Q1-2024 due to my calculations. If you find this analysis informative, hit like/boost right now! Appreciate it. This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately. Thank you for reading!
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
95
CME Gaps: Don't Ignore Them... How often have you heard this term “CME gap” on Twitter, Reddit and other social media platforms. People usually refer to CME gaps during and after the weekends. “There is a CME gap at $9800”, “Bitcoin is about to make a huge gap on the CME chart”, “gap has been filled” and so on. What is CME CME stands for Chicago Mercantile Exchange. It is the world’s largest financial derivatives exchange. This futures platform allows one to trade variety of asset classes like: agricultural products, energy, stock indices, fiat currencies, interest rates, real estates, metals and even they have futures trading options for weather. What is a GAP To put it plainly; A gap is simply an area on a chart that has no trades. It is basically an empty space between the close and open price of an asset. You can see the current gap just filled down at 19k-20k last week. CME Bitcoin futures gap: Bitcoin (BTC) is being traded 24/7 on majority of crypto exchanges, but not on CME. Bitcoin does not trade during weekends on CME and this causes gap on CME chart once the trading resumes on the platform. The CME gap on Bitcoin typically occurs when the price of Bitcoin moves after the CME futures market is closed. Once CME opens; the trade on CME resumes at the same price as other Bitcoin exchanges thus creating a gap on the CME chart. Why do they fill? Price gaps getting filled is not just a CME phenomenon and is not just a Bitcoin thing. It’s a common occurrence that can also be seen quite regularly within stock and traditional markets. In most cases the price tend to fill the gaps and due to this many technical analysts consider gaps when doing price analysis. But why do they fill? In physics there is a famous saying: “Nature abhors a vacuum“. This idiom is used to express the idea that any unfilled, empty spaces are unnatural and goes against the laws of physics and nature. This is based on Aristotle’s observation. Nature contains no vacuums because the denser surrounding material continuum would immediately fill the rarity of an incipient void. Could this possibly be the reason why the gaps are getting filled? Well, there are several different theories regarding this but the fact is no one exactly knows why gaps fill. Trading based on BTC gaps Although CME accounts for a large portion of BTC traded volume, the price of Bitcoin does not necessarily gravitate towards CME gaps. There are so many other factors such as Volume, momentum, buy / sell pressure, technical structures, support / resistance and many more.Traders consider gaps as an interesting marker on a chart. But they don’t necessarily trade on as they are not always a reliable indicator. They have high hit rate and so using them on your technical analysis will help you position yourself on the right side of the trade. However taking a trade solely based on this one factor is a wrong move. Trading gaps seems like an easy strategy but the risks are high and in most cases you’ll be on the losing side. So do not risk your trade account with just this one strategy. Use proper risk management, set stop losses and be sure to trade safe. Apart from this there are other types of gaps which traders use in their technical analysis like for example: Liquidity gap, Breakaway, Balanced price range, Fair Value gap and so on... I have located all the 'Unfilled' CME BTC gaps in the chart...
CME:BTC1!
by TraderE9
3
CME close as minor S/R levels.Not a great deal of excitement to be had from bitcoin lately. However here's a recurring pattern i have been observing lately since we've been stuck in so many tight ranges. Quite simply the horizontal lines here correspond to recent CME weekly close prices. The whole gap filling thing is well known so i won't go into that but what is more interesting is how many times these lines have provided minor supports and resistances when viewed in shorter time frames. Last week's close level has provided us 6 small bounces since tuesday, perhaps more if we zoom into even lower timeframes from last weekend. This is not an isolated case either. Obviously this is mainly of interest for scalping while the market is so tightly bound but it's useful to note that some like the 18th and 25th Nov closes lower down have also given us so larger bounces. To clarify the price i'm using is the actual weekly close from the CME futures regardless of any divergence it has from the spot price at that same time. Initially i was just looking at them for gap fill targets but it seems they continue to be useful even after that. Worth taking the time to explore this while the market is sideways. I expect this idea will become obsolete whenever btc starts to show signs of a trending direction, either up or down. Of course, we may be waiting some for that to happen.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by mutantdog