CHINA 50! ROCK OR BUST?The China 50 took off like a rocket, leaving behind the DJI and other country indices. This is the CN50's biggest rally in a year. State media agencies talked up the index promising a post-coronavirus boom. Then the China Securities Journal made similar promises.
This caused an almost 6% charge north in one day! However, there did not appear to be significant underlying volume - which is a bit worrying.
But volume isn't everything. I show two points on the chart that I think may be comparable. In technical terms the two recent weekly candles are the biggest since 2013. The momentum seen on lower time frames is ridiculous. In these situations a minor correction is expected (not predicted), followed by follow through. If you have enough 'bottle' and money to burn go for it, on a lower time frame.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
CN50USD
I am "Mr Invincible"Do you love money ? I think you and I do but the Chinese really loves money.
Two things that really make them rich, I mean filthy rich in China. One is property and the other is the stock market. And they are risk takers though not necessarily prudent in managing risks.
They do not hold back when they think or feel this is the time to go all in. Read article here
I lived in Singapore and thus far I have not heard about the government encouraging the people to put money in the stock market, directly or indirectly. Not China, not USA and maybe some other countries.
Let's take a look at the chart. Both SHCOMP and China A50 which I posted my views ( here and here )
Both are up about 30% from the bottom in March 2020 while Hang Seng Index (HSI) is only up about 17%, which offers more potential for upside.
Again, I advocate prudent risk management. I have said and shown through various indices, stocks in Hang Seng and China that I bought that showed good profits. There is no need to ask your friends for money, go to bank and borrow nor sell your house and sink the whole kitchen into the stock market. This , to me is taking on too much risks, maybe not for others.
Average up slowly on each pullback and each time, stick to the 1-2% risk per trade rules. Avoid doubling or tripling your position sizes hoping to make money quicker and within a shorter time. Mr Market can be nice to us but it can also become nasty at a turn of events that you and I cannot know nor predict like the Covid-19.
In the words of legendary Warren Buffett- the first rule of trading is not to lose your money. That means at all time protect your capital. So guys, chill and not to think this bull run is going to be over soon and your fear of missing out cause you to go take on additional risks.
Think of your loved ones, family and even yourself. Always think what if I am wrong ? That is not being cowardly like some traders said but being RESPONSIBLE. Maybe, you think it is ok to go all in and worst case scenario, you just put in the extra hours to earn back the money.
But if you have dependants that need your income to pay the bills, education, rentals, etc, then it is wiser to think twice. Everyone situation is different, do the best you can without following others blindly. Such "all or nothing" mindset is taking things to extreme and is betting big on luck to be on their side.
Another thing is having peace of mind. If your portfolio is in the red, your life still goes on. But if it affects you so much then, you probably have weighed too much in and you need to pull back a little. Strike a balance.
May the blessings of God be with you.
1 Peter 5:8
Good chance to get in or accumulate China A50It has reached a high of 13,942 from 8 June to 24 June without able to breakout higher. This calls for a short term sell opportunity.
Expect it to break down from the bullish trend line and heads towards 13,337 over the next few weeks.
This discount will present a great buying opportunity for those who have yet to come onboard China index.
CN50 H4 SHORT PRICE ACTION FORECAST - UPDATE-After three days with the position placed, the price finally is moving downwards. Price action reached a level where I usually close half of the position running and move the S/L to BE.
To what is known as a "risk-free" trade.
Will keep a close look to find a better place to trail de S/L. I will keep the comments as a trading update.
CN50 H4 SHORT PRICE ACTION FORECASTCHINA A50 found rejection from a critical resistance level from the ascending channel. Price action making a tweezer top candle. MACD is showing diminished bullish momentum, together with a clear divergence for confluence on the bearish bias.
Price in consolidation.
The order:
Type: sell-stop.
S/L: 20 pips - R:R | 1:2 -
T/P: aiming to the next supply zone + ascending channel support
GET READY! China 50 in trouble - 2nd wave of virus! 😨😲You've been told! Get ready. There is trouble in this heading south more likely, than not!
Reliable sources in non-mainstream media are picking up the second wave of a virus outbreak in China. This is not fake news!
The re-opening (or partial re-opening) was actually fake news. Facilities were actually being built to accommodate more sick and dying people.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile, and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Clearing 12612 resistance for CN50If this level is cleared, then we have a higher chance of seeing it closing the gap (see triangle) which has yet to be filled up.
Think about it , China in a way has to thank Covid-19 as after it has manage to contain the virus issue, it is now becoming the go to expert in terms of medical supplies. That brings jobs and opportunities to the people of China who are now resuming back to work and production are gearing up as well.
trade with caution.
2 sides of a coinAmong the 3 major China indices, HSI, SHCOMP and CN50, it is the latter that dropped the
most from its peak. It has fallen more than 10% from 14695 in mid Jan this year.
With the coronavirus that caused much uncertainty in the market, all indices globally, oil, stocks , etc have been impacted as well.
If you know how to short-sell , then you probably have made a handsome profits. For those who are late at buying a piece of China, then this is an opportunity to get in.
I will wait a while more as the virus news is still ongoing and people are fearful, driving bond prices up, gold price up and yen as well.
I have indicated two possible support level, 12618 and 12936 that I think it might revisit before a rebound. Of course, it might be worse than this, nobody knows.
Depending on what was your entry price, some of you may want to take profits and buy back at a later time.
Trade safely, always use a SL and employ risk and capital management .
Do you know your trading style ?According to psychologists in the 1920s, there are 3 different ways that people learn.
1)Visual: a visually-dominant learner absorbs and retains information better when it is presented in, for example, pictures, diagrams and charts .
2)Auditory: an auditory-dominant learner prefers listening to what is being presented. He or she responds best to voices , for example, in a lecture or group discussion. Hearing his own voice repeating something back to a tutor or trainer is also helpful.
3)Kinesthetic: a kinesthetic-dominant learner prefers a physical experience . She likes a "hands-on" approach and responds well to being able to touch or feel an object or learning
While we may have a combination of all 3 styles, there is one style that stands out, that dominates amongst the three. I classify myself more of a VK learner as I like to plot chart and prefer hands on approach (ie. live trading to gain the understanding).
I would classify Auditory as someone who prefers podcasts rather than videos as the latter consists of both visual and audio involved. So, if you like watching youtube channels on trading, ask yourself do you need to see what the author is showing you or are you comfortable just listening to the content .
When you understand your own style over time, you can better choose the right resources to back up your learning. Also, it helps you to better formulate your ideas to others as well.
Hope this is helpful.
Trade safely. GBU.
Flood Gate is Open NowThere are still some uncertainty over US - China trade agreement especially in intellectual property, technology transfer and the human rights issue in Hong Kong. These are challenges that would take a longer time to iron out but eventually some form of agreement would be reached, imo.
As seen on the 4H chart, price action is on a bullish trend with minor correction on the way. This would be opportunity for buyers who missed earlier.
1. It breaks out of 14099 resistance level and continue to charge higher.
2. It corrects towards the bullish trend line (green) and then rebound.
Note - if price breaks down the bullish trend line, buying ceases till we examine the price action further. Though this can possibly happen but I doubt the probability of it happening now.
20190911 Trade idea on China A50 (Update 20190930)Still looking to long....
Free sharing of trade ideas....
"FOLLOW" me to receive email notification when I publish new trade idea
"LIKE" this post to receive update on this thread
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you like this post ;)
That's the best way to support me
Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment only, it may be incorrect and should not be used for your investment decisions.... I just post things for fun based on what I've learned and that may be incorrect. Seek help from a REAL certified financial adviser (NOT who I am - I'm nobody) for your investment or trading decisions involving real money .
20190911 Trade idea on China A50 (Update 20190918)as shown... until trend line breaks
Previous China A50 analysis....
20190912 #2
20190911 #1
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you like this post ;)
That's the best way to support me
Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment only, it may be incorrect and should not be used for your investment decisions.... I just post things for fun based on what I've learned and that may be incorrect. Seek help from a REAL certified financial adviser (NOT who I am - I'm nobody) for your investment or trading decisions involving real money .