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Update on the Chinese YuanA few months ago, I proposed USDCNH/USDCNY consolidating for a bit and then going higher, as such strong moves usually follow through. The Chinese economy looks extremely weak for multiple reasons, and I see no way that the CNH/CNY won't lose much of its value relative to the dollar. Technically it is ready for another strong move higher, and the fact that Pelosi is visiting Taiwan could be the catalyst for a breakout. Of course, I could be wrong, and the market has a pullback first. However, I think that would be a buy-the-dip opportunity. Going down to 6.6 would be a gift, and that's where I'd want to add to my long positions (short CNY). In my opinion, the market will take out the double top at 7.2$ first, maybe pull back, and then move significantly higher. However, my first target is a bit lower because I do some resistance there, as there was a breakdown that was never retested. Regardless of what your target is, the R/R here is tremendous.
Long
by BitcoinMacro
1
The USDCNH/USDCNY move was extraordinaryAs the Chinese economy was slowing even before the lockdowns, the strict lockdowns put a lot more pressure on the CNH/CNY. This created a huge divergence in the policies of the Fed and PBoC, as one was hiking and the other was cutting. For quite some time the USD was going up against most currencies, except the CNY... until one day the market fully reversed and rallied much higher. By looking back to the USDCNH price action over the last decade, we can see that the two times we got such huge rallies, the market initially pulled back, and then went higher. Now when we compare the duration of those rallies, their magnitude and how overbought the market got by using different metrics, they all look fairly similar as a whole. For example the first one from 2015 was longer and slightly larger than the current one, but the initial leg was brutal. The second one from 2018 was the largest and quickest, however the market wasn't that overbought and the move made more 'sense'. Therefore this move has the potential to be just like the previous two. In the short term I could easily see USDCNH trade back to 6.53-6.58, but my long term target is above the 7.2 double top. The same way the double top around 7 broke and the market went to 7.2, I expect the market to go above the 7.2 double top. No idea where could it top, but it is possible that we get a prolonged bull for USDCNH.
Long
by BitcoinMacro
USD/CNH:BUY From PREMIUM Area for a LONG Setup The USD in the last session, by the macro news, has a loose value against the EUR, this will affect all the pairs correlated, especially all the ones with the first denominator starting with USD. Today I want to talk about USD/CNH that comes from a long Bullish rally where in the last sessions it's inside an accumulation rectangle. We are looking to buy again here at a discount, around the 50% and 61.8% FIBO levels where the Dynamic trendline of the Bullish channel can work as additional support. The Alternative scenario will happen if the price will broke 78.2% Fibo and the Bullish channel will be invalidated.
Long
by FOREXN1
7
Jackson impacting USDAfter an important Jackson, Powell consistent attempt at persuading (or forcing) equities higher is coming to an end and it is time for a round of chart updates across the board. This sort of tendency, which toys with the idea of tapering and rolling up purchases should be seen as such; USD shorts are increasingly less appropriate; but here the dominating factor between the two currencies is the transition to CBDCs and a race to the bottom. The well being and woes of China who are already miles ahead in their fourth beta test, will determine effectively who cancels the currency first. A very plausible move throughout 2020 since buyers remained hesitant to play the safety leg. I was hesitant to play the leg higher but this decision made things a lot easier. The correct course now is switching to a new course, this time an ABC sequence towards 7.31x (+13% from current levels) into 2022 to offer lasting protection, invalidation for this move will come below March 2018 lows (-3% from current levels).
Long
by ridethepig
10
Forecast USDCNH#FOREX #USDCNH As you remember, I wrote that it is time for China to intervene, as our trading system signals a turning point-vibration. The trading system and knowledge of economic processes and dialectical contradictions once again anticipates what will happen in reality a little later. Bottom line: the price went slightly above the indicated zone with a squeeze. However, the People's Bank of China has started to make verbal interventions so far, as expected: 🇨🇳 The Central Bank of China carried out verbal interventions in the CNY, warning speculators that they will lose money in the long run if they continue to bet against the CNY; China's state-owned banks have been told to brace for CNY intervention - RTRS; Yuan is unlikely to continue rapid decline - Chinese state Securities Times; Where this will lead next: the intervention of the Central Bank of the PRC de facto and their transition to more aggressive rhetoric without any euphemisms. Process started. I still expect an escalation in Taiwan and the South China Sea.
Short
by airstels
USDCNH breakoutPrice broke up this triangle📐 and I think there is chance for run to 6.92 and even higher. Setting BUY LIMIT order to previous range high to catch🎣 the pullback. Resistances along the way ENTRY : local high @ 6.735 STOPLOSS (SL) : local low @ 6.668 TARGET (TP) : height of the triangle projected from midpoint of the local range (BUY LIMIT - STOPLOSS) @ 6.92 REWARD RISK RATIO (RRR) : 2.8 INVALIDATION : when SL level hit Check my other stuff in related ideas. Please boost🚀, comment🗣️, follow me✒️, enjoy📺! ⚠️Disclaimer: I'm not financial advisor. This is not a financial advice. Do your own due dilingence.
Long
by bizmark
7
US Dollar Ready to Resume Rise Against the Chinese Yuan?Following a few months of consolidation, the US Dollar seems to be making some upside progress against the Chinese Yuan. Fundamentally speaking, a hawkish Federal Reserve and dovish People's Bank of China offer upside potential for USD/CNH. This also follows measures from China's government (about 1 trillion Yuan) to bolster the economy. In response, USD/CNH is trying to confirm a breakout above the May high (6.8376). Key resistance seems to be the midpoint of the Fibonacci extension (6.8833). Further gains place the focus on the 61.8% and 78.6% levels at 6.9460 and 7.0353 respectively. Keep a close eye on the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). These could reinstate the upside focus in the event of a turn lower. FX_IDC:USDCNH
Long
by QM_Dubrovsky
USD/CNH Falling Wedge May Hint at Uptrend ResumptionThe US Dollar has been rising against the Chinese Yuan in June so far. On the 4-hour chart, USD/CNH appears to be carving out a bullish Falling Wedge chart formation. A breakout above, with resistance as the 23.6% Fibonacci extension at 6.7304, opens the door to perhaps revisiting the May high at 6.8375. Otherwise, a turn back lower towards 6.6131 would keep the Yuan on a slow and steady appreciation course against the US Dollar within the boundaries of the Falling Wedge. FX_IDC:USDCNH
Long
by QM_Dubrovsky
Chinese yuan rebounds on Shanghai reopening hopesThe Chinese yuan rose to one-week highs on Monday, fueled by expectations that Shanghai, the country’s financial hub, will soon emerge from a two-month lockdown that has crippled economic activities in the city and weighed on the country’s overall economic recovery. The CNY traded at 0.1504 against the greenback on Monday, recovering further from an over one-week low of 0.1481 on Wednesday when the yuan weakened against a basket of 24 currencies tracked by the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS). Still, the yuan has fallen below the 0.1570-mark against the USD since April as concerns over China’s economic recovery grew following Shanghai’s prolonged lockdown that has affected consumption, industrial production, lending, foreign trade, and other aspects of the economy. The RSI indicator is at least suggesting that this recovery in the yuan may not last. Slowing economy China’s zero COVID-19 policy has definitely taken a toll on the domestic economy. In April, China’s retail sales fell at the sharpest pace in over two years as the lockdowns in Shanghai hammered consumption and the supply of retail goods. There have been reports of food shortage in Shanghai, with state-run Xinhua News reporting that multiple botanists called on residents to stop digging and consuming wild vegetables. Industrial output, meanwhile, unexpectedly fell in April versus a year earlier, reversing the modest gain in March. The drop in China’s factory output last month was the steepest since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in February 2020. It came as lockdowns forced the closure of vital factories including those operated by local and domestic carmakers. Shanghai is one of China’s major auto production hubs and the lockdowns weighed on carmakers’ revenues in April. All-out effort to stimulate economy As investment banks and economists downgraded their outlook on the Chinese economy this year due to the lockdown’s impact, Beijing has vowed to all-out efforts to stabilize industrial and supply chains and boost infrastructure construction. On Friday, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang acknowledged that the country’s latest economic challenges are worse than those seen in 2020. Li said the government is "at a critical juncture in determining the economic trend of the whole year.” He urged local governments to make every effort in bringing the economy back to its normal track. Shanghai reopening The Shanghai government is working to ease the city’s lockdown, issuing on Sunday an action plan that consists of 50 policies and measures to help stimulate the economy. The measures include relaxing the rules on resuming production starting June 1 and expanding the scope of subsidies for companies’ pandemic prevention and disinfection, state-run Xinhua News reported Sunday.
by BlackBull_Markets
USD/CNH May Resume Broader Uptrend as China Faces Growth WoesThe US Dollar may regain its footing against the Chinese Yuan amid favorable fundamental headwinds. China's zero-Covid policy has been weighing on local economic output. Meanwhile, rising fears of a recession in the US are slowly weakening global growth expectations. This leaves China in a tricky spot, even if conditions open up locally. A slowing global economy could sap the demand for Chinese goods. Diverging monetary policy is also favoring the US Dollar against the Chinese currency. On the daily chart, USD/CNH has left behind a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. Further upside follow-through could open the door to further gains. That would place the focus on the May high at 6.8376. Otherwise, clearing immediate support at 6.6480 exposes the Mat low at 6.6119 as the 50-day Simple Moving Average nears.
by QM_Dubrovsky
Monthly CNHUSDZooming out to the monthly CNHUSD which represents offshore yuan, we have clearly had an exit from the downtrend that has been in place for close to a decade. The big question is, what's next? Right now, I'm seeing the CNH drop out of a rising wedge to potentially retest the downtrend and/or the 72/89 EMA cloud. I've drawn out my best guess on what a retest would look like. Likely a pull back that translates to sideways consolidation on the 72/89 EMA cloud, and then a rally up. This chart is more interesting from more of the global implications perspective. Will China devalue again as they did in 2015? If the bull scenario plays out here, what would cause a significant increase in demand of CNH and CNY? Keeping this macro chart on the list of things to watch.
Long
by rfc4
The Beginning of the Golden Dragons Collapse?China is struggling, Covid 3.0 or whatever version we are on now is taking a hold of the Chinese, Shanghai in lockdowns and Shipments struggling to dock. The Chinese Economy is in a very interesting position currently, with Companies like the Chinese Titanic 'Evergrande' defaulting. We are seeing China try to expand its influence in the SCS ( South China Sea). When we take a look at the currency pair USDCNH, we are seeing the USD start to gain some real ground and this weekly charts shows the potential for this rally to continue to the 7 area, we can look for a retest of volume before opening potential long positions.
Long
by ZenFlo
Macro offshore renminbi compared to USDMonthly chart so much more macro. Theoretically, the way this could play out is that it falls out of the rising wedge to retest the 72/89 EMA cloud. After that, its make or break on falling back in line with the broader downward channel or to send it and bounce off that EMA cloud. The interesting note is the implications of what a bounce off the EMA cloud means... foreign countries holding the CNH. Macro-wise, could be signaling a shift in preferred currencies which I would assume would be due to emerging markets dumping the USD in favor of the CNH. Big speculation. Who knows!
by rfc4
US Dollar Pressuring Yuan as USD/CNH Breaks Year-Long TrendlineThe US Dollar is making a move against the Chinese Yuan after months of consolidation. USD/CNH took out a year-long falling trendline, as well as the 6.3941 - 6.4107 resistance zone. This marks the highest close since October. Further upside confirmation could perhaps hint at a turning point for the almost 2-year long downtrend. A bullish crossover between the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) remains in play. These lines could come into play in the event prices turn lower, holding as key support. The breakout has exposed the September high at 6.4880. Negative RSI divergence does show that upside momentum is fading, so keep an eye on the trendline. The latter could hold as new support in the event of a turn lower. FX_IDC:USDCNH
Long
by QM_Dubrovsky
Hawks vs Doves, the battle of CNH…CNH1! Birds of different feathers are likely not to flock together! As policy divergence continues between the US Fed (Hawkish) vs the PBoC (Dovish), we expect the Dollar to strengthen against the RMB on a macro level. On the technical side, we see a bullish RSI divergence (prices making lower lows while RSI making higher lows), suggesting that momentum is nearing the end and potentially reversing. We also note proximity to the long-term support level since 2014 as an additional bullish factor. Entry at 6.355, stop at 6.2955. Targets are 6.580 and 6.720. Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
Editors' picks
CME:CNH1!Long
by inspirante
13
Is the Chinese Yuan Readying to Reverse?The Chinese Yuan spent most of 2021 appreciating against the US Dollar despite a broadly upbeat year for the latter. Now, fundamentals may be paving the way for its turnaround amid the risk of slowing demand for Chinese exports - www.dailyfx.com USD/CNH recently turned higher following a more hawkish Federal Reserve, reinforcing the key 6.3526 - 6.3238 support zone. Meanwhile, the PBOC is looking comparatively dovish. Positive RSI divergence shows that downside momentum is fading, which can at times precede a turn higher. Immediate resistance appears to be the 61.8% Fibonacci extension at 6.3833 before the midpoint at 6.4110. Down the road, the pair would have to face falling resistance from March which could reinstate the broader downside focus. On the other hand, taking out the key support zone exposes the 100% extension at 6.2936.
by QM_Dubrovsky
1