What 3 Events Will Traders Be Watching This Week? 17 Jan – 21 JaWhat 3 Events Will Traders Be Watching This Week?
17 Jan – 21 Jan, 2022
Monday, January 17:
YoY China Retail Sales Dec
Year over year Retail Sales in China is predicted to slow in December 2021’s reading from 3.9% to 3.7%.
The Offshore Yuan has eyed a sub-6.34000 value against the USD since December 2021 but hasn’t held the nerve to stay this low for anything more than a brief intraday flirtation. The USDCNH is currently on the precipice of this level, trading at 6.35283 and could finally close sub-6.34000 in a daily time frame if an unexpectedly strong December Retail Sales report helps dispel rumblings of a weakening Chinese economy.
Tuesday, January 18:
BoJ’s Press Conference
The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will speak on Tuesday Evening. No significant changes to the Bank’s ultra-loose monetary policy are expected, but traders will watch for signals concerning future rate hike decisions. The market may have already begun anticipating such, with Japanese Yields hitting a six-year high last week, and with it, the Japanese Yen experienced its best weekly gain in six months.
Wednesday, January 19 to Friday, January 21:
Wednesday: YoY UK Inflation Rate Dec
Thursday: Canadian YoY Inflation Rate DEC
Friday: Japanese YoY Inflation Rate DEC
The market will be reacting to three important inflation data reports In quick succession for the last three days of the week.
A 0.1 percentage point increase is expected for all three reports. Perhaps the most important to watch will be Friday’s report from Japan as it can be considered in tandem with the BoJ Monetary Policy Minutes report, which is released twenty minutes after the inflation report.
CNH
Yuan will devalue soon, US dollar $DXY will soar!Republishing this from my USDCNY post.
1. Head and Shoulders pattern
2. MA's + PA show a bottoming pattern
3. China will devalue the Yuan (Remnimbi)
4. Dollar $DXY will go over 106
5. Gold $XAUUSD will go below $1,500 oz.
6. Silvere $XAGUSD will go below $15 oz.
Trade idea related to this currency pair that goes through other macro factors
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10, 20, 30 year yields mirror this PA - and show USD will be going up as yields are starting to. When China devalues the Yuan, the FED will be helpless to push it down unless they go all in on YCC via UBI. Then you'll want to pivot into $XAUUSD or $XAGUSD.
USDCNH OANDA🌟this pair is traded for a long term situation with a high R/R value (the R/R stays the same)
🌟in this ascending channel you can see the reversed H&S formation (or the 3 buddha or 3 rivers in Japanese trading) which is an indicator for a bullish bias and its marked with faint yellow highlight
🌟you can observe a blood waterfall (marked with red highlight) which is abnormal in the market and distracts the EMA statistics and for balancing this situation a green mountain needs to recover this bleed of the market from the top to the bottom of the channel (both waterfall and mountain phrases are visionary and not official formats)
🌟this position has a 3510 pips rewards aside a high cost stop loss so manage your leverage properly
Risk warning, disclaimer: all of the following signals/ideas are subjective and based on market judgement of our team's technical and fundamental analysis , we hope traders consider this and always check it with your own strategy, if you don't have any we can help you form one
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Significant CorrelationThe strength of the Chinese Yuan and equity markets appears to be correlated due to the Chinese's increased trade presence and credit expansion. If price action continues to push below the 200 day EMA we could be likely looking at a bear market.
Could the dollar milkshake theory prove to be correct?
Only time will tell. (Dramatic music engage)
Rain Industries Cup And Handle Pattern On weekly chart NSE:RAIN
Rain Industries on weekly chart form a cup and handle pattern and almost ready for big blast rain industries will show good uptrend from here onward. to be safe side one can wait for follow through buying on daily chart. CMP is 243.3 while 190 will be good support.
|| hari om ||
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ridethepig | CNH Market Commentary 22.08.2021Buyers position marks (5) as a soft and temporary floor.
Other events can cause the base to appear a lot stronger than it does, so the transfer of the attack from one direction to the other can be subtle, although not a matter of pure chance.
It has been a relatively straight forward flow, but one that has not seen much light thrown on the subject thanks to noisy explanations. As can be seen in the charts below, @ridethepig was concerned at the highs.
The said possibility of a temporary floor is much rather a natural profit taking move in the struggle against sentiment. A considered judgement about the perverse signally from PBOC and Xi ought to look something like; base at 6.35xx is strong support (after the powerful legs lower it is very sensitive). That is the real truth, we are inside a multi-year decline that could go a lot. lot lower, for now, we shall have to content ourselves with limiting adding short positions till we are back above (4) highs at 6.587x for another test of the lows in our current range (6.58x - 6.40x).
Pelikan Small Cup Big CupSmall Cup already rewarded with 27% @ 0.48. Now test second wave 0.48 for next reward Big Cup. Target 62% reward @ 0.96 if can break 0.55/0.59.
USDCNH Facing bullish pressure | 25 Aug 2021USDCNH reacting above ascending trendline support. With price breaking above moving average, we see a possibility of a further push up above our entry at 6.47452 towards graphical overlap resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and our take profit at 6.49267
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USDCNHUSDCNH in the descending channel. It forms the small bullish triangle and bearish ascending wedge inside.
☝🏻 More and more countries have trading relationships with China. It may:
- make the yuan more and more popular;
- put the dollar under structural pressure;
- increase tensions between China and the United States.
Best regards EXCAVO
USDCNH Facing Bearish Pressure | 9th June 2021USDCNH broke below ascending trendline support (now resistance). Price has also tested and pulledback below this trendline resistance. A further drop below our entry and Key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 6.40076, with a possible downside target at 6.37686 could be possible. Our take profit at 6.37686 is also in line with a Fibonacci confluence zone where we have -27.20% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension .
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
The dollar is close to a 5-year support against the yuanDescription :
Movements between the two currencies fluctuate sharply, as the dollar has fallen about 10 percent against the yuan since last year.
But it is close to a support that is about 3 years after the last collision. Also, the dollar index has been declining over the past year. It is possible that we will see the sheet return after the support collision as in the past.
USDCNH - Double Bottom USDCNH has been technically sound. Been following all the rules of technical patterns. As we're anticipating USD strength, we may see a push up for this pair. It looks to have reversed at the perfect place where it created a double bottom
Please note that trading exotic pairs carries bigger risks than trading major pairs.
Goodluck and trade safe!
USDCNH LONG+ At monthly candle chart we have 0.764 Fibonacci retracement level. This is good for buy signal.
+ Previous week candle was bullish. This is good for buy signal.
+ At daily candle timeframe market show us bullish signals at 1 hour timeframe.
Idea is wait for one hour candle timeframe closing at the highest point and go with the crowd forward.
USDCNH on an inversted H&S 🦐USDCNH on the 4h chart after a long downtrend starts a move inside a descending channel.
The market creates an inverted head and shoulder pattern with the opportunity of a break to the upside.
IF the price will break above, according to Plancton's strategy, we will be ready to set a nice long order.
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Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
USD/CNH Can Plummet FurtherThis has been plummeting for the best part of a year. It recently broke another support and is now retesting it as resistance. If we see MACD turn lower and EMA's do not cross higher then this should continue down to the next supports.
Keep in mind this has been oversold on RSI since September so don't be too overconfident as there is always the chance of a correction.
I have marked out 3 levels where to expect support so these can be the targets.
TP 1 - 6.38367
TP 2 - 6.31515
TP 3 - 6.23602
Once this turns SL can be added just above the resistance.
USDCNH a turn at the 0.618? 🦐USDCNH after the last bearish impulse retraced until the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
The price is now testing the support over a trendline and if the market will break below, we can set a nice short order opportunity.
--––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.