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CNH

USDCNH hit an extreme resistance 🦐The market has been very choppy lately and nervous. Fundamental situation between China and US didnt helo the trend. Now the market hit the extremely strong weekkly chart resistance and just broke the daily trendline to the downside. IF the market will manage to break the structure we can look for a short position according to our rule. ––––– Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
ridethepig | NZDCNH Market Commentary 2020.03.01NZD is moving as collateral with AUD, those following the previous AUDCNH idea will know this is no less imaginative. New Zealand is exposed to a short-circuit in Chinese supply chains leaving it vulnerable to a slowdown in China via coronavirus. On the monetary side, RBNZ has been notably quiet around the impact from the virus. The CB will not be able to hide from the slowdown for too long, exports are already being hit, tourism, commodities and consumer confidence! As is the case with AUDCNH: The range we are trading in NZDCNH is clearly defined; 4.7 - 4.05 and this trend has held since 2015. The flip is being broken and a breakdown looks imminent. Given the risk environment, I recommend trading towards support at the 4.05 lows and selling rallies going forward. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes coming on the CNH crosses ... an entire dissection of CNH and the impact from PBOC intervention. Jump into the comments with your charts and views!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Flash Crash In Play For AUDCNH !!A major breakdown ahead of the open as markets catch up to the virus disruptions. AUD and global trade are set to suffer for sometime, it will take a brave man to step against this flow. On the monetary side, RBA tee'd up a rate cut in April with another in Q3 on the cards. Housing has already done the heavy lifting, will need A LOT more help from elsewhere to create a positive outlook in the near-term for AUD. PBOC in a 'whatever it takes' moment with the printer starting to overheat. On the technicals, the doldrum 4.7-4.9 range remained intact throughout 2019. Since the new decade we have broken the lower end in the range via coronavirus trigger, a screaming warning for what is cooking globally. We are sitting at key support 4.5 which needs to hold otherwise we have a flash crash in play towards 4.3 - 4.25. Unless buyers step in quickly we are set to lose support on panic. Continue to sell weakness if we lose support. For those tracking USDCNH : For those tracking EURCNH : Lastly, for those tracking Chinese Equities : Best of luck all those in CNH, risks come from further PBOC intervention although looks like they ran out of time! Thanks all for keeping the likes, comments and charts coming!
Short
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | EURCNH Market Commentary 2020.03.01Here we go for a round of important chart update on the FX, Commodity and Equity board... I do not subscribe to the idea of this being the start of the euro reserve currency rally which we were tracking earlier in the year that failed from the Coronavirus short-circuit, although it is certainly moving with speed. Remember we have month end flows in play now too and to put the 🍒 on top the virus still not under control. I am expecting further downside in euro as the outbreak continues to delay the recovery in trade for Europe, now it is crystal clear if it wasn't already that the EUR really holds the key to pandora's box for those wanting to play the reflationary trade. This has been delayed till later in 2020 via the deflationary shock from COVID-19. Tracking 1.05xx-1.04xx in EURUSD. On the CNH side, the PBOC intervention is notable: Advise selling rallies in Chinese Equities for now, the demand for currency will increase as long as the virus shows no signs of abating. I expect this cross to grind towards the 7.40 levels where it would be very attractive for those mid and long-term macro players to buy the dip into 2021. On the technical side, Strong resistance is found at 7.73 / 7.75, use this to sell into and target the support at 7.40 / 7.38. Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | CNY Market Commentary 2020.02.16On the technicals there is little to update while the resistance holds, despite the bounce via PBOC intervention on coronavirus risk flows. The only level in play to the topside is 7.0248 as it caps the highs in the current wave. Anything above will unlock a leg towards the next barrier at 7.0733. The coronavirus short-circuit sadly temporarily disrupted the USD devaluation / reflationary growth theme. I am still holding shorts and active looking for a test of the 6.825x. Anything below that will open the floodgates for the major break: As usual thanks for keeping support coming with the likes and comments, we'll open up the short-term flow after the Tokyo open in the comments below for those trading live!
Short
by ridethepig
RIDE THE PBOC !!!China returning from LNY and an (un)lucky -8% selloff taking the headlines as SHCOMP catches up to the bleeding across Global Equities since last week. Well done those that caught the move we traded live here: A flawless -8% leg in a single gap; as long as the full extent in the impact of this virus remains unclear it will be difficult for SHCOMP to get back above 3,000. These retraces should be seen as good SHCOMP selling opportunities (although tricky in this case for some). The liquidity injection from PBOC will be enough to put the handbrake on the selloff, this area is of focus and here looking for 2983 to the topside while 2650 is the area of focus below. China a much bigger part of global growth now; almost 2/3 of China is in shutdown meaning PMIs are likely to dip next month. We have some time to complete the retrace before reassessing if the coronavirus impact can be looked through or if we will need to change MT and LT outlooks. A transmission leg, not for the feint of heart. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with your likes, comments, charts and etc! Good luck all those trading SHCOMP after the last 8% move we can afford to leave some chips on the table.
SLong
by ridethepig
8
ridethepig | CNH Spot Commentary 2020.02.03An important update to the CNH chart after the latest coronavirus measurements and impact calculations. PBOC stepped in as expected to stop the bleeding and SHCOMP ending the day with a lucky -8%: In the FX market, the impact will show over the coming sessions as demand for CNH increases with capital rushing to the doors. This is not a healthy technical looking picture, buyers were tracking the "Cup and Handle" formation earlier last year till we traded the rejection live in the diagram: Although it takes a brave man to step against the current flows as they have been short-circuited via a temporary demand shock, I continue to look to ride the pig to the downside here and trade the leg towards the lows in the 6 handle via USD devaluation. Good luck all those navigating around the coronavirus flows, we will keep the charts updated incase of any breakouts to the topside. If this is the case we will need to reassess the view as the 7.27xx technical target which I mentioned earlier would be back in play. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
USDCNH, US Dollar - China Yuan: Falling WedgeFX:USDCNH If a bullish breakout should occur on this falling wedge, we will eventually try to get back on this cross. The first trade closed at a loss at 60% of the initial maximum risk. In this way we had optimized the realized losses reducing as often happens the % at initial risk. We do the same thing when trades follow our direction and also optimize profits. What happens in this way? We conclude trades in 45% of cases with a profit of 3/4 times the losses. We have even earned 20 times more than the initial risk a few times. Our first goal is always not to lose money. Why? Because we have learned from the best traders in history, and we want to take part in that elite as well. Happy Trading to All!
Long
by SwissTradingSchool
1