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Coal

Coal = Gold 3.0 - The New Paradigm Breakoutor this may be a 2B double top extension. (see Bitcoin Nov-2021 2B top, or see Gold-ounce double top from Ukraine tensions in Spring 2022) I think that the coal new paradigm pump is a sell the news event, energy supply tensions are easing and in the USA the domestic stress of a Rail Workers Union strike will be resolved within weeks. Strong Supply flows will dampen the heightened speculation about Coal companies going up forever (with their notably favorable P/E and P/FCF rates) "Years ago, I recognized my kinship with all living things, and I made up my mind that I was not one bit better than the meanest on earth... While there is a lower class, I am in it, while there is a criminal element, I am of it, and while there is a soul in prison, I am not free..."
NYSE:CNR
by noam_chom
CEIX Consol Rally to $60 for Local Coal Cycle Toptry and be patient with this one. Geopolitical headlines will move it fast in this thin volume topping structure. await a run up near 60 and then play for downside strong fundamentals: finviz.com Greenlight Capital also discussed CONSOL Energy Inc. (NYSE:CEIX) in its Q2 2021 investor letter. The fund said: “Thermal Coal and Natural Gas ESG investing is inflationary, as green energy is simply more expensive than hydrocarbons. Hydrocarbon energy companies are starved for capital and are being told to change their ways. The result is less exploration and drilling. Even with benchmark oil prices surging over the last year, companies are loath to drill more. Normally, the cure for high prices is high prices. With ESG in the proverbial driver’s seat, we might need much higher prices still in order to increase investment to meet demand. There is almost nothing less popular than thermal coal. From 2011 to 2020, U.S. coal production declined by 51%. U.S. demand has fallen as we’ve shifted to alternative sources of electricity. As unpopular as coal is though, it still makes up about 20% of U.S. electricity generation. Globally, coal demand is growing modestly as China and India add power generation capacity faster than the West is reducing it. Even so, reduced oil and gas drilling has caused natural gas prices to advance and coal prices are following. Seaborne thermal coal prices are up 140% year-over-year and at the highest levels since 2011, and Northern Appalachia thermal coal prices are catching up, rising 23% in the last month alone. We own CONSOL Energy (CEIX), the lowest cost, most efficient miner in Appalachia, which is poised to benefit from rising coal prices. It trades at 12x consensus earnings estimates that look stale to us, as they do not reflect recent coal price gains.”
NYSE:CNR
by noam_chom
3
Whitehaven Coal Limited about to correctThe exponential grow will eventually comes to a halt. With the ease in oil prices and possibility of FED pivoting, the smart money will pull out of this ticker and resume the other pumps. Soon or late the green guys will resume fighting coal again, when the dust settles! The recent peak has not brought RSI up with it, forming a clear bearish divergence between price action and RSI. If you are a retail and just want to enter this ticker for a long, be very careful! I am calling for a short position with the following TPs: Entry: Around 10$ TP1: $6.5 TP2: $5.5 Do your own reasoning before opening any positions. This is not a financial advice.
CAPITALCOM:WHCAUShort
by GoatOfWallStreet
Too fast, too furious for Natural Gas?After a sharp drop in August, Natural Gas futures is now sitting close to the long-term uptrend support which has marked key reversal points since June 2020. Our question is whether prices have fallen too fast and too soon? We question “too furious” when we look at the RSI which currently points to oversold levels. Hitting a low close to 24, the last time RSI reached such an oversold level, in February 2017, prices rallied close to 35% over the next 2 months. We also note the formation of RSI divergence now, like the one we observed during the 2017 period. If history is any guide, from a technical perspective we can expect some upside for Natural Gas in the coming 2 months. We question “too fast” as we are at the dawn of the seasonality trade. With demand for Natural gas used for heating generally rising as winter months are approaching, we can reflect on the seasonality behavior of Natural Gas prices over the past winters. A simple strategy of buying in the middle of October and waiting for the winter months gives a 70% win-rate when we look back at the past 10 years. Could we expect the same this winter? On top of these, we think there are a few structural factors that might boost natural gas demand in the US over a longer-term horizon. 1) The recent announcement by the Biden administration that ruled out a ban or curbs on natural gas exports this winter, and Europe’s struggle with the energy crisis spell good news for Natural Gas’s demand. 2) Current Natural gas storage levels are also below the 5-year average as reported by the US EIA . 3) A move away from coal as agreed in the COP26 means alternative energy sources are bound to replace coal. With many coal-powered plants being refurbished to work with natural gas, we see structural demand rising as more of these plants come online. Natural gas’s current technical levels point oversold to us, with the seasonality trade potentially on the cards and an overall supportive macro backdrop, we lean bullish on Natural gas. As Natural Gas is considered a highly volatile contract, we can use the Average True Range (ATR) to set our stops. In this case, we follow the rule of thumb to multiply the ART by 2, which sets our stop at roughly 4.550. Entry at 5.200, stop at 4.550. Target at 6.400. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by inspirante
15
BTC Bull CaseThese are my quick plans on how i plan to trade BTC short term Option 1 is a break above the Mid range and hold I will long with stops below Mid and targets to range high and above, Option 2 is a break down and show signs of support at that Range low, if it holds i will look for entries to target mid and range high. Do i care which way it goes , NO, am i predicting what way it goes NO.. these are plans, if this do this... It might well god candle up and not give any trigger to get in and that is ok. My bear plan will follow where if it show certain Characteristics i will look for shorts.
Long
by gillman_hugh
$PDN Paladin Energy PDN Formed a nice macro Bull Flag that broke out and trapped a lot of traders as it turned out to be a fakeout. These Breakout traders have since puked their positions on the fake breakout. PDN then broke support and ranged under the OCT 2004 ATH. This looked like PDN was breaking down and about to go lower.. Exactly whaty a big Hedge fund would want you to think if they were building a position. they are hunting for liquitity imo. Im bullish here for the following reason. 1.Reclaim of 2004 ATH acting as resistance. 2.Stoch in an area that tends to have a high probability for long setup 3.Small but Bullish Divergence on MACD. A nice clean break and hold above 720 may start the next leg up on this stock
ASX:PDNLong
by gillman_hugh
Energy CorrectionOver the first half of 2022, energy was a bright spot in markets. NYMEX and Brent crude oil futures rose 40.62% and 40.24%, respectively. The oil futures closed well below the March highs on June 30, with prices north of $100 per barrel. NYMEX natural gas futures moved 45.42% higher over the first half of 2022. The price was at the $5.424 per MMBtu level on June 30 and was over $6 in mid-June. Meanwhile, thermal coal for delivery in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, was at the $370 per ton level on June 30, 215.16% higher over the first six months of 2022. The nearby August contract was higher at $391 per ton at the end of last week. A correction takes crude oil futures below the $100 level Crude oil takes an elevator lower during corrections- Nothing new The four reasons oil will find a bottom and turn higher Natural gas remains highly volatile as the peak season approaches Follow those trends until they bend Fossil fuel continues to power the world, and while oil has corrected, oil, gas, and coal remain at the highest prices in years. The XLE, a highly liquid ETF that holds shares of the leading US energy producers, refiners, and related companies, moved from $55.50 at the end of 2021 to $71.51 on June 30, a 28.8% gain. At $68.59 on July 15, the XLE continues to outperform the rest of the stock market in 2022 despite the 4.08% loss over the first half of July but still over 23.5% higher in 2022. The most diversified stock market index, the S&P 500, fell 20.58% over the first half of 2022, settling at 3,785.38 on June 30. The index was at the 3,863.16 level at the end of last week, significantly below the closing level of 4,766.18 on December 31, 2021. Crude oil prices corrected over the past weeks, but while the short-term trend has turned bearish, the landscape could support higher prices over the coming weeks and months. A correction takes crude oil futures below the $100 level Crude oil futures tend to take the stairs higher during bullish trends and an elevator lower during corrections. The spike to the March fourteen-year high in WTI and Brent futures was an exception to the rule as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shocked the oil market and the world. The chart highlights the correction in the NYMEX crude oil futures market that took the price to a low of $90.56 last week, the lowest price since February 2022. NYMEX WTI futures for August delivery were at the $97.59 level on Friday, July 15. Brent futures have been trading at a premium to the WTI futures because they reflect the price of oil production from Europe, Russia, North Africa, and the Middle East. Brent futures also fell to the lowest price since February 2022 last week when they reached $94.50 per barrel. The nearby September contract settled at the $101.16 level on July 15. Crude oil takes an elevator lower during corrections- Nothing new As we learned in early 2020, when the pandemic took NYMEX crude oil futures to a record low below zero and Brent futures to the lowest price of this century at $16 per barrel, declines in crude oil often defy logic, reason, and rational analysis. Over the past decades, there are more than a few examples of drops that take prices far below analysts’ expectations before rebounding. The latest correction took the continuous NYMEX contract from $130.50 in early March to $90.56 last week, a 30.6% drop. Brent futures fell from $139.13 to $94.50, or over 32% over the same period. WIT and Brent futures have made lower highs and lower lows over the past four months. The four reasons oil will find a bottom and turn higher Four factors could cause crude oil prices to eventually find a bottom and return to a bullish trend: The war in Ukraine continues to rage with Europe and the US tightening the sanctions noose around Russia’s neck. Russian retaliation could cause embargos that create severe crude oil shortages, lifting prices. One of the factors weighing on oil prices is the Chinese economic weakness caused by the COVID-19 lockdowns. When they end, the demand from the world’s second-leading economy and the most populous country could soar, running the oil bear into a charging bull. The US government continues to look elsewhere for oil production as policies address climate change. According to the US Energy Administration, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has declined to the 485.1-million-barrel level as of July 8, the lowest level since 1985. The administration continues to withdraw one million barrels each day from the SPR. Eventually, the US will need to replace its reserves. There are few incentives for US and European oil companies to increase production in the current environment. OPEC and Russia have no interest in addressing climate change. The world continues to depend on fossil fuels, and alternative and renewable energy domination are decades away. With oil production and pricing controlled by Riyadh and Moscow, higher prices are likely after the current correction. While the oil price is correcting lower, the reasons for a bottom and a return to higher prices remain compelling in mid-July 2022. Natural gas remains highly volatile as the peak season approaches In June 2020, US natural gas futures fell to a twenty-five-year low of $1.44 per MMBtu. The chart shows the rally in the US natural gas futures market that took the price of the continuous contract over 6.7 times higher by June 2022, when it reached the highest price since 2008 at $9.664 per MMBtu. Since then, the price corrected as it was around the $7 level on July 15. The last time natural gas futures were at this price in July was fourteen years ago in 2008. We are in the heart of the summer, which is the peak cooling season. However, the test for the bullish price action in natural gas will come in October 2022 through February 2023, when the peak heating season arrives. Meanwhile, US natural gas has become a far more international market over the past years, as US LNG travels the world on ocean vessels to locations where prices are much higher. The war in Russia creates natural gas shortages in Western Europe. The chart shows that UK natural gas never traded above the 2005 117 high until 2021. At the 200.290 level at the end of last week, the price was nearly double the previous record high after rising to the 800 level in March 2022. The US will struggle to fill Europe’s natural gas void created by Russian retaliation. As of the week ending on July 8, US natural gas inventories stood at 9.6% below the previous year’s level and 11.9% under the five-year average. US energy policy has weighed on natural gas output at a time when Europe is looking to the US to fill the gap created by the war in Ukraine. Natural gas shortages are likely in Europe this coming winter season. Follow those trends until they bend The short-term trend in crude oil has turned bearish, with the prices on either side of the $100 per barrel level. I expect lots of two-way price action in the oil and gas markets over the coming weeks and months. While natural gas remains a bucking bronco with wide price swings, crude oil is now in a bearish correction. Follow those trends until they bend as they are the best barometers of the path of least resistance of prices. Trends reflect the market’s sentiment. When sellers are more aggressive than buyers, prices move lower. When buyers dominate sellers, they move to the upside. As of Friday, July 15, the sellers were in the driver’s seat in the oil market. Time will tell how long they remain in control and how low they will push the price of the world’s leading energy commodity. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Andy_Hecht
3
It's the energy, babyINVESTMENT CONTEXT Inflation in the UK reached 9.1% in May, up a tad from 9.0% reading in April IEA warned the EU to brace for a potential full cut of energy supply from Russia, with outsized repercussions on the bloc's GDP Germany’s finance minister called the EU ban on sales of combustion engines cars by 2035 a “wrong decision” Goldman Sachs upped its latest forecast for probability of a recession over the next two years from 35% to 48%; ARK's CEO Cathie Wood identified in the Fed's excessively tightening monetary policy a cause that could plunge the economy into recession On June 21, ProShares launched its Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITI), the first inverse exchange-traded fund linked to BTC, which allows investors to bet against the world's largest cryptocurrency by market cap Crypto exchange FTX extended a USD 250mln credit line to crypto lender BlockFi, shortly after bailing out crypto broker Voyager Digital with a USD 485mln loan PROFZERO'S TAKE All Profs timely highlighted the criticality of energy driving the next steps of the ECB monetary policy - other than hopefully accelerating replies from the industrial side, in an effort to ensure greater security and diversification of supply to the continent. Now those warnings are coming to the fore. The Central Bank of Spain estimates a full halt of energy supplies from Russia would plunge EU GDP by between 2.5% and 4.2%; Goldman Sachs locates the crunch at 2.2%, with sizable impacts in Germany (-3.4%) and Italy (-2.6%). Risk management predicates the "build back better" doctrine - when a major crisis strikes, opportunities arise for decision makers to rebuild infrastructures, making them more resilient. Profs really hope this time the EU won't turn a blind eye to the opportunity of pursuing for once a coordinated, integrated, energy strategy The escalating narrative between U.S. President Biden and the energy sector majors regarding lifting energy output is starting to look paradoxical to ProfZero. According to EIA, U.S. crude oil production was 17.44mboe/d in Q2 2020, at the trough of the pandemic (on April 20, 2020, WTI futures closed on negative territory at USD 37.65/boe below zero); it took 5 quarters for the industry to add 1.5mboe/d, setting production at 18.94mboe/d in Q3 2021, and yet 3 more quarters to add another 1mboe/d (output in Q2 2022 is estimated at 19.94mboe/d). U.S. production broke through 20mboe/d only once in history, on Q4 2019 - at the peak of the previous economic cycle. President Biden demand to hike internal output in a bout to put a lid on retail fuel prices looks therefore hazardous; it would heavily backtrack on the much-touted energy transition off from fossil fuels, while amassing capital investment in a sector that has been demonstrated to require entire quarters before its output may adjust. Even deeper into detail, U.S. refining capacity plummeted from all-time high in - guess when - Q2 2020 at 17.72mboe/d to 15.56mboe/d in Q1 2022, owing exactly to the energy transition kicking older plants off the industry, while leaving higher margins ("crack spreads") to those who stayed. As much as soft commodities, the move off from crude oil into natural gas has been taken for granted for too long. Policy makers were swift to point the finger to the bad guys; but too little was done to build the infrastructures of the energy of the future. A few more refinery runs won't make up for the problem PROFTHREE'S TAKE Out of the crude oil frying pan, into natural gas fire - mindful of coal burn. The Netherlands lifted limits on its three coal-fired power plants from 35% to full capacity until 2024; similar measures were undertaken by Austria, Germany and Italy as Russia goes all-out on natural gas curtailments. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen urged Europe not to "backslide" its long-term commitment to cut fossil fuel usage, and to remain focused on "massive investments in renewables". ProfZero and ProfThree's eyebrows are as high as TTF gas prices - with but 4 months ahead of winter season, and the notorious impossibility for renewable energy to be stored, Profs are in fact fearing a much more worrisome backslide for the EU - one into full energy recession
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
Running up that hill - but then?INVESTMENT CONTEXT Analysts sharply raised the probability of a recession, while the Fed announced its support to yet another 75bps rate hike in July A worldwide measure of people’s inflation expectations over the next year was more than 4% in May, up from 2.3% a year ago Russia cut 60% of natural gas supply to Europe via Nord Stream 1 pipeline; cuts are now estimated to have reached 50% to Austria and Germany and 45% to Italy Germany announced it would take emergency measures, including restarting coal-fired power plants, to cushion the impact of lower gas supplies from Russia Turkey offered its support to extending safe grain export corridors from Ukrainian ports A delegation from the IMF arrived in Colombo, Sri Lanka's capital, to discuss a rescue package after the country declared default on its international debt Three Arrows Capital failed to meet demands to provide extra collateral to meet margin calls on digital currency positions PROFZERO'S TAKE Carefully monitoring equities after last week's collapse - not even energy stocks, the clear overperformers of the first 150 days of the year, were spared by the rush to sell. Balancing now Value with Growth may become the major challenge for investors as we head into recession - where the winners of the next decade are dictated Ireland's Finance Minster Paschal Donohoe expressed positive views on the Eurozone, asserting that the balance sheets of the continent's States are in much better shapes then 10 years back, when the contagion of Greece's debt crisis was feared to spill over to Italy and Spain, triggering a spiraling domino effect of defaults. ProfZero unfortunately does not share Mr. Donohoe's optimism. Countries like Italy deeply enjoyed the not-so-implicit backing of the ECB when it came to rolling over government debt in the open market after the investor confidence meltdown in November 2011 - yet no tangible reforms revived the nation's growth and productivity statistics, while public spending rather than targeting infrastructural changes was aimed at winning political approval in the form of heftier unemployment cheques. Taken together, Italy's debt-to-GDP ratio in fact ballooned from 126.5% in 2012 to 150.8% in 2021; inflation may definitely play a role smoothing the nominal debt load, but interest rates are already guiding fixed income traders to bet against the country's solvency, to the point that the ECB had to backtrack on its announcement regarding the end of the EUR 20bn monthly bond-buying program. ProfZero recently reiterated that from an inflation crisis this could easily spiral into a credit downfall; China already had its Evergrande moment. Let's hope the world will suffer a little more piccolo ProfZero often gets asked "Is it the right time to buy?" - The right question would rather be: "Why and what am I buying?" Until we flip our mindset to that, we'll be just chasing trends, ending up being eaten by the sharks PROFONE'S TAKE Following the considerations about the energy of future, ProfOne’s eyes are set on green hydrogen, a promising alternative fuel facing ever-growing demand. Hydrogen has been demonstrated to enjoy potential to replace natural gas in power-hungry industries like cement, steel, ceramics and fertilizers. In the context of de-carbonisation and energy security, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, governments and energy companies upped their investments in green hydrogen: BP (BP) has taken a 40.5% stake in a USD 30bn green hydrogen production project in Australia, while Spain is bidding to become the first green hydrogen hub in Europe. Amidst growing enthusiasm, ProfOne is curious how producers will deal with the challenges of storage and transportation, other than the extremely high production costs. Today's green hydrogen is based on clean electricity from renewable energy; as such, it is ca. 5x more expensive than grey hydrogen (actually the most common, coming from natural gas without emissions recapture). The energy equation has 3 variables: security, reliability and affordability. To date, all known sources can satisfy but 2 at a time - green hydrogen included
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
$CRK oil hedge 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management* Today my team entered oil company Comstock $CRK at $20 per share. Take profit is unknown but the set-up looks very promising. Entry: $20 If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
NYSE:CRKLong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
2