Get started

Cocoa

Cocoa #CC Cacao Analysis I will start with Base Support (SB) which in my last analysis I said: ‘Base Support SB at 2315 still holds, if this breaks next support would be around 2200 ($80q) followed by 2150.’ On July 1, the price of CC touched the base support level, and bounced back up only to fall on July 7th again and close the week on the SB level. This is clearly not a positive and may be indicative of further weakness to come. Resistance D (red line) continues to serve as a ceiling and cocoa is still far from approaching this R. The MACD indicator is still showing a downward trend, as well as the EMA’s averages. Likewise, the DXY indicator (dollar) continues to rise, in this case weakening the price of cocoa. THERE IS NO CHANGE OF TREND at the moment but these next few days will be important. If cocoa fails to recover, we will be seeing new levels, possibly around $2,200 per ton or $80 per quintal. Europe & the US continue on a recessionary path with higher inflation. Consumption decreases as the purchasing power of the consumer is eroded and chocolate will most likely also be touched. Next week grinding data will be out and that will give us a clearer indication regarding the real health of the consumption of chocolate. If the volume of grindings remains the same or rises, then a positive, if they fall, it indicates that the recession is affecting the chocolate market, and consequently the purchase of its raw material, cocoa. Comienzo con el Soporte Base SB que en mi último análisis dije: ‘El soporte base SB de 2315 aún se mantiene, si este rompe el próximo soporte sería alrededor de 2200 ($80q) seguido de 2150.’ El 1 julio el precio del cacao tocó el nivel del soporte base, y rebotó con debilidad el 7 de julio para de nuevo recaer y cerrar la semana al SB. Esto claramente no es positivo y puede ser indicativo de mayor debilidad por venir. La resistencia D (roja) sigue sirviendo de techo y por lo visto aún está lejos de acercarse. El indicador MACD aún muestra una tendencia a la baja, así como los promedios EMA. Igualmente, el indicador DXY (dólar) se mantiene en alza debilitando en este caso el curso del cacao. NO HAY CAMBIO DE TENDENCIA por el momento pero estos proximos dias seran importantes. Sí el cacao no logra recuperarse estaremos viendo nuevos niveles posiblemente alrededor de $2200 por tonelada o $80 por quintal. Europa & EEUU siguen en una trayectoria recesionaria con mayor inflación. El consumo disminuye a medida que se erosiona la capacidad adquisitiva del consumidor y el chocolate también tendrá afectación. La próxima semana saldrán datos de moliendas y eso nos dará un indicativo más claro en cuanto al consumo real del chocolate. Si volumen de moliendas se mantiene o suben entonces un positivo, si bajan indicador de que la recesión está afectando el mercado del chocolate, y a consecuencia la compra de su materia prima el cacao.
ICEUS:CC1!
by ejencalada
$CC #Cc Cocoa Cocoa remains under strong downward pressure since May. It has failed to break above slope D. The averages are also holding a downtrend. SB base support at 2315 still holds, if this breaks the next support would be around 2200 ($80q) followed by 2150. MACD is approaching its first bounce level of -40, could make an attempt higher. Keep this in sight. If this indicator continues to drop then we may see -80 levels before cocoa attempts another bounce. Cocoa depends on the consumption of chocolate. In recent weeks, the US and the EU have reported strong increases in their inflation rate, which translates into less consumption of non-essential products such as chocolate. Another negative factor is the high cocoa stock reported this month by the US ICE stock exchange in its cocoa warehouses. The inverse relationship between the dollar index (DIX) and current commodities does not favor cocoa: the dollar index (orange line) increased to >105 when its normal average is around 96. Cacao se mantiene con una fuerte presión a la baja desde mayo. No ha logrado romper por encima de la pendiente D. Los promedios también sostienen una tendencia bajista. El soporte base SB de 2315 aún se mantiene, si este rompe el próximo soporte seria alrededor de 2200 ($80q) seguido de 2150. El MACD se acerca a su primer nivel de rebote de -40, podría hacer un intento al alza. Mantener esto en la mira. Si este indicador sigue a la baja entonces podremos ver niveles de -80 antes de que cacao intente otro rebote. El cacao depende del consumo de chocolate. En estas últimas semanas, EEUU y UE ha reportado incrementos fuertes de su tasa de inflación, eso se traduce en menos consumos de productos no esenciales como es el chocolate. Otro factor negativo es el alto stock de cacao reportado este mes por la bolsa ICE de EEUU en sus bodegas de cacao. La relación inversa entre el índice dólar (DIX) y las materias primas actual no favorece al cacao: el índice dólar (línea color naranja) incremento hasta >105 cuando su promedio normal es alrededor de 96.
ICEUS:CC1!
by ejencalada
Cocoa Futures (CC1! ), H1 Potential for Bearish ReversalType: Bearish Reversal Resistance: 2645 Pivot: 2607 Support: 2557 Preferred case: We see the potential for a bearish reversal from our pivot level at 2607 which is in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection towards our 1st support level at 2557 which is in line with 100% Fibonacci projection along with a graphical swing low support. Our bearish bias is further supported by price trading below the Ichimoku cloud indicator. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price might break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance level at 2645 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Fundamentals: No major news.
ICEUS:CC1!Short
by Genesiv
Cocoa Futures (CCK2022), H1 Bullish BounceType : Bullish Bounce Resistance : 2639 Pivot: 2552 Support : 2500 Preferred Case: Price is near pivot level of 2552 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Price can potentially bounce up to the 1st resistance level of 2639, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection, along with a graphical swing high resistance. Our bullish bias is further supported by stochastic indicator where price is near resistance level. Alternative scenario: Price might continue to drop towards the 1st support level of 2500 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Fundamentals: No Major News
ICEUS:CCK2022Long
by Genesiv
Cocoa Futures (CCK2022), H1 Bullish BounceType : Bullish Bounce Resistance : 2647 Pivot: 2558 Support : 2502 Preferred case: We see the potential for bullish bounce from our Pivot level at 2558 in line 50% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance level at 2647 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is supported by price trading above the Ichimoku cloud indicator. Alternative scenario: If price continues to dip towards our 1st support level at 2502 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Fundamentals: No Major News.
ICEUS:CCK2022Long
by Genesiv
Cocoa Futures (CCK2022), H1 Bearish ReversalType : Bearish Reversal Resistance : 2673 Pivot: 2651 Support : 2605 Preferred case: We see the potential for bearish reversal from our Pivot level at 2651 in line 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection towards our 1st Support at 2605 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Our bearish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator where it is at resistance level. Alternative scenario: If price continues to go up, it can potentially move towards our 1st Resistance level at 2673 which is in line with 100% Fibonacci projection. Fundamentals: No Major News.
ICEUS:CCK2022Short
by Genesiv
Cocoa Futures (CCK2022), H4 Bearish DipType : Bearish Dip Resistance : 2608 Pivot: 2557 Support : 2456 Preferred case: We see the potential for bearish dip from our Pivot level at 2557in line 38.2% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st Support at 2456 with a swing low support level. Our bearish bias is further supported by price trading below the Ichimoku cloud indicator. Alternative scenario: If price continues to go up, it can potentially move towards our 1st Resistance level at 2608 which is in line with with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Fundamentals: No Major News.
ICEUS:CCK2022Short
by Genesiv
USCOCOA LONG - Buy Entry - D1 ChartUSCOCOA LONG - Buy Entry - D1 Chart Buy @ Market Symbol: USCOCOA Timeframe: D1 Type: BUY Entry Price: Buy @ Market TP - Resistance @ 2561.42 TP - Resistance @ 2620.59 TP - Resistance @ 2675.76 TP - Resistance @ 2754.21 PP Y1 - Pivot Point Yearly @ 2483.65 Support @ 2446.42 Support @ 2414.51 ✅ If you liked this analysis, please consider Following and giving it a Thumbs Up 👍 ✅ If you have any feedback or questions, please leave a comment below as I answer each comment. ✅ Wishing you enjoyable successful trading 🙏
ULong
by UnknownUnicorn35780991
Cocoa Futures (CCK2022), H4 Bullish ContinuationType : Bullish Continuation Resistance : 2708 Pivot: 2523 Support : 2452 Preferred case: We see the potential for bullish continuation from our Pivot level at 2523 in line 23.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st Resistance at 2708 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection . Our bullish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator where price trading near the support level. Alternative scenario: If price continues to drop, it can potentially move towards our 1st Support level at 2452 which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection . Fundamentals: No Major News.
ICEUS:CCK2022Long
by Rockqet
Cocoa Futures (CCK2022), H4 Bullish BounceType : Bullish Bounce Resistance : 2593 Pivot: 2496 Support : 2449 Preferred case: Price is abiding by the ascending trendline. We see the potential for bullish bounce from our Pivot level at 2661 in line 61.8% Fibonacci projection towards our 1st Resistance at 2593 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. Our bullish bias is further supported by RSI indicator showing price moving along the ascending trendline. Alternative scenario: If price continues to drop, it can potentially move towards our 1st Support level at 2449 which is in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Fundamentals: No Major News.
ICEUS:CCK2022Long
by Rockqet