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Cocoa_tradingsetup

"COCOA" Commodities CFD Market Bearish Heist (Swing/Day Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑💰✈️ Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "🏉COCOA🏉" Commodities CFD Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Pink MA Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bearish loot at any price - the heist is on! however I advise to Place sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level for Pullback entries. Stop Loss 🛑: 📌Thief SL placed at the nearest/swing High or Low level Using the 4H timeframe (8800) Day/Swing trade basis. 📌SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: 6800 (or) Escape Before the Target 🏉"COCOA"🏉 Commodities CFD Market Heist Plan (Swing/Day Trade) is currently experiencing to move bearishness.., driven by several key factors.👇👇👇 📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Seasonal Factors, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Future trend targets.. go ahead to check 👉👉👉🔗🔗 ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
PEPPERSTONE:COCOAShort
by Thief_Trader
"COCOA" Commodities CFD Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Thieves, 🤑 💰🐱‍👤🚀 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the 🏉COCOA🏉Commodities CFD Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish thieves are getting stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bearish loot at any price - the heist is on! profits await!" however I advise placing Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or swing low or high level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at (9700) swing Trade Basis Using the 2H period, the recent / swing high or low level. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: Primary Target - 7000 (or) Escape Before the Target Secondary Target - 5000 (or) Escape Before the Target 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Global Market Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Quantitative Analysis, Positioning: 🏉COCOA🏉 Commodities CFD Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend., driven by several key factors. ⭐☀🌟Fundamental Analysis (All Factors) Fundamental analysis examines supply, demand, and external influences on cocoa prices. 🌟Supply Factors: Weather Conditions: Cocoa production, primarily in West Africa (Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, ~60% of global supply), is weather-dependent. La Niña conditions in 2025 could bring mixed weather—drier conditions in some regions might reduce yields, while improved rainfall elsewhere (e.g., Nigeria) could boost output. Nigeria’s January 2025 exports rose 27% year-over-year to 46,970 MT, signaling potential supply growth. Crop Health: Diseases like black pod and swollen shoot virus remain threats. Poor harvests in 2024 likely contributed to earlier price spikes, but stabilization efforts (e.g., better farming practices) could ease supply constraints by March 2025. Production Outlook: The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) may project a surplus if West African output rebounds, pressuring prices downward from recent highs. 🌟Demand Factors: Consumer Demand: High cocoa prices in 2024 (e.g., peaking above $11,000) led to demand destruction, with companies like Hershey and Mondelez reporting reduced chocolate consumption in North America. At $8,500, demand might stabilize, though inflation and cost-of-living pressures could still limit growth. Industrial Use: Cocoa’s role in confectionery remains strong, but manufacturers may continue reformulating products (e.g., smaller sizes) to offset costs, as seen with Mondelez’s Milka bars shrinking from 100g to 90g. External Influences: Currency Strength: A stronger U.S. dollar (e.g., rallied to a 2-week high in early March 2025 per Barchart) typically depresses commodity prices like cocoa, as it’s traded in USD. This could keep prices around $8,500 rather than pushing higher. Geopolitical Stability: No major disruptions in West Africa are noted, but political instability or trade policies (e.g., tariffs) could alter supply chains. 3. Macro Economics (All Factors) Macroeconomic conditions influence cocoa’s price trajectory. Global Growth: Slowing economic growth in 2025, particularly in North America and Europe, could reduce discretionary spending on luxury goods like chocolate, capping demand upside. Inflation: Persistent inflation erodes purchasing power, as noted by the ICCO in 2022. If inflation moderates by March 2025, demand might recover slightly, supporting prices. Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve’s December 2024 rate cut (25 basis points) with trimmed 2025 expectations suggests tighter monetary policy ahead, strengthening the USD and potentially weighing on cocoa prices. Energy Costs: High energy prices increase transportation and processing costs for cocoa, supporting higher prices, though a recent dip in crude oil (e.g., down $0.40/barrel on March 5 per Barchart) might ease this pressure. Trade Policies: Tariff threats mentioned in web results could disrupt commodity flows, though no specific cocoa-related tariffs are confirmed for March 2025. ⭐☀🌟COT Data (Commitment of Traders, All Factors) COT data from the CFTC provides insights into market positioning as of the latest Tuesday (March 4, 2025, released March 7). Commercial Positions: Commercials (producers, processors) were reportedly at an extreme long position relative to the past 26 weeks. At $8,500, they might be locking in prices, anticipating a surplus or lower future prices. Speculative Positions: Non-commercial traders (hedge funds) likely trimmed bullish bets after prices fell from highs. A net short position could emerge if prices hover near $8,500, signaling bearish sentiment. Open Interest: At a 3+ year low, this suggests reduced market participation, often a bottoming signal, but also reflects uncertainty. Interpretation: Balanced commercial longs and speculative shorts at $8,500 indicate a market in transition, with potential for a directional move based on new data. ⭐☀🌟Commodity-Specific Analysis Seasonality: Cocoa typically rallies into April driven by pre-harvest demand and holiday chocolate sales (Easter). At $8,500 in March, an upward seasonal trend could begin. Supply Chain: Nigeria’s export surge and potential ICCO surplus forecasts (Barchart) suggest improving supply, countering earlier deficits from 2024’s poor harvests. Substitution Risk: High prices earlier prompted some substitution (e.g., palm oil in chocolate), but at $8,500, cocoa remains competitive, stabilizing its market share. ⭐☀🌟Intermarket Analysis Dollar Index (DXY): A stronger USD (up $0.139 on March 5 per Barchart) pressures cocoa prices downward, as seen in recent commodity sell-offs. Crude Oil: Oil’s decline (down $0.40/barrel) reduces input costs, potentially easing cocoa price pressure, though this effect is lagged. Sugar/Coffee: Sugar prices fell 1.57% and coffee 0.19% on March 5, reflecting broader soft commodity weakness that could drag cocoa lower in sympathy. Equities: A risk-off sentiment in equities (web results note a sell-off) often correlates with commodity declines, though cocoa’s fundamentals might decouple it from this trend. ⭐☀🌟Market Sentiment Analysis Trader Sentiment: Online discussions show mixed views—some see $8,500 as a bottom with upside to $18,650, others predict a drop to $9,853 or lower. Bearish sentiment dominates short-term outlooks. Consumer Sentiment: High chocolate prices and discounting (e.g., 90% off Santas in Germany) reflect weak demand, pressuring cocoa sentiment. Analyst Views: Hershey’s hedges rolling off in 2025 and ICCO surplus forecasts suggest a bearish tilt, though seasonal bulls remain vocal. ⭐☀🌟Additional Tools and Resources Technical Indicators: RSI showed negative divergence earlier, hinting at overbought conditions before the drop to $8,500. A neutral RSI now suggests consolidation. Charts: Logarithmic charts indicate $8,650 as a channel bottom, with $8,500 testing support. Resistance lies at $10,877–$11,400. Forecast Models: WalletInvestor predicts $18,548 by 2030, implying long-term bullishness, though short-term volatility persists. ⭐☀🌟Next Trend Move Short-Term (March–April 2025): Seasonal strength and low open interest suggest a potential rally to $9,500–$10,000, but surplus fears and USD strength could cap gains or trigger a drop to $7,647 (WalletInvestor downside). Medium-Term (Q2 2025): If supply improves and demand remains soft, prices might trend toward $7,000–$8,000. ⭐☀🌟Real-Time Market Feed (Up to March 5, 2025, 08:48 PM PST) Latest Price (Hypothetical): $8,520 (assumed close on March 5, based on stability near $8,500). Intraday Movement: Down $187 (-2.02%) on May ICE NY cocoa (CCK25) per Barchart, reflecting USD strength and supply optimism. Volume/Open Interest: Declining, per COT trends, indicating low conviction. External Factors: Crude oil down $0.40/barrel, USD up $0.139, sugar/coffee weaker. ⭐☀🌟Future Prediction (Bullish or Bearish) Bullish Case: Seasonal rally, low open interest, and commercial longs could push prices to $10,000+ by April, especially if weather disrupts supply. Bearish Case: ICCO surplus, USD strength, and weak demand favor a decline to $7,500–$8,000 by mid-2025. Outlook: Mildly Bearish in the short term due to supply improvements and macroeconomic headwinds, with a potential bullish reversal if seasonal factors dominate. ⭐☀🌟Overall Summary Outlook At $8,500 on March 6, 2025, cocoa is at a pivotal point. Fundamentals show improving supply and softening demand, macroeconomic factors (USD strength, inflation) lean bearish, and COT data reflects uncertainty. Intermarket weakness and mixed sentiment reinforce a consolidation phase, with a slight downward bias unless seasonal bullishness kicks in. The next trend likely hinges on weather updates and demand signals, with $7,500–$10,000 as the near-term range. 📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
ACTIVTRADES:COCOAShort
by Thief_Trader
COCOA LONG THEN SHORT 08/08Hello everyone, It seems like we might have reached the end of the uptrend, considering external factors and technicals such as a growing RSI on the high scales indicating a change of direction very soon. However, it seems that there will be a gap or a downfall at first as usual, then a moderate uptrend which will start to collapse around 16/17h, when the liquidity it at its prime. We advise you to not open any position past this time because the end of a trend with Cocoa can get very ugly things. Hope to help you tomorrow with this, may the Lord be with us.
PEPPERSTONE:COCOALong
by edl75
LONDON Cocoa Future C1! - Short Term AnalysisPrices have been in a squeeze for a very long time ... The last days of this scramble will be like the middle of June. Prices will probably decide which way to go by this date, Up or down? In this sense; It is worth watching the 1840-1890 band for prices that are supported by the 50-day exponential average. However, we would expect prices to hold on to 1690 and then 1650 in a repeat selling pressure. It contains only personal views and opinions. Does not contain legal investment advice ...
ICEEUR:C1!
by EmoteK
COCOA TO GO 'LONG' for the futureQuick chart for my followers, cocoa to go long, if you have been following my other publishes then you would understand my chart without yellow full details, there may be further downtrend on the bottom yellow line but overall cocoa is on the uptrend as it has hit top yellow line. Top yellow line at 2051 Bottom yellow line at 1800 Please study your indicators understand some, as they would help you determine a suitable entry point. use lower timeframe views such, Weekly and Daily view for a suitable entry point to go uptrend. Also, do set stop losses but be generous with how much room you allow for this due to candle wicks and there is also the possibility to hedge yourself, for more confident traders. All comments and questions welcome, if curious about indicators I use then feel free to inquire.
NYMEX:CJ1!Long
by Dani0
Cocoa at heavy resistance now 2443. Short or long? check my ideaCocoa is at a heavy resistance now, 2443. Will it go Short or long? Price is exactly between two fibonacci resistances now; 2524 and 2368. I think price will bounce between these two before it breaks long or short. When it breaks the long resistance 2524, I see a target of 2674. When it breaks low; target 2153. Most difficult part are the exact positions where to buy and positions stop loss. I have some ideas about which positions to place orders, but I'll try some movements before opening them. After years of studying, learning and practicing I have developed a way of trading which can provide an profit every month by trading cfd's. The strategy I learned from an visionair is 'Cycle trading' and I have developed this further and made it my own. How do I decide to open a position or not? First I analyse: - sentiment on the market > are people in buy mode or short mode - I have some own created indicators, some I show in my charts, as; is the trend horizontal / uptrend or downtrend or volatile. - and this own indicators tell me when probably a new long position starts or a new short > these are the positions where I place my orders! one of the indicators I use here to help me is the Fibonacci sequence. - and again other own created indicators tell me how far long or short it probably goes. The take profit and stop loss positions are Other positions than the resistances in the market! Here I work with 'the total expected possible profit' and an percentage from this total opportunity where I mostly close the trade to be safe. And that's not all at all. Also I check if the opportunity is interesting, by analyzing the charts and when I can make the conclusion that when I should open an certain trade and the possible profit would be 2/3rd of the amount you can possibly loss. So, in bad case lose 100 dollar and best case win 300 dollar it is worth the try! losing these kind of trades, I see as an investment on the possible loss. Stop loss needs to be tight here. Patience is everything, we’ll wait for the right moment! Sometimes we are in huge loss, before we end the month in good profit. This is all part of the game. Without trading positions which we lose, we could never win more than we lose. Losing orders is investing in the knowledge to trade the right one to earn money. Thank you for following and Succes with trading ! Richard from Rich.Exclusive.Trading
NYMEX:CJ1!
by Rich_Exclusive_Trading