Huge Cocoa Correction Ahead? Cocoa prices face a strong risk of correction back to $10,000 as bearish fundamentals stack up:
Supply Surge Ignored
Ivory Coast port arrivals are up 33% from last season, signaling a significant increase in supply from the world’s largest producer.
Demand Destruction at High Prices
All-time high prices are forcing buyers to scale back purchases or delay deals.
Economic slowdowns and weaker spending on luxury products like chocolate further reduce demand.
Liquidity Crunch in Physical Markets
Massive liquidity issues, including payment delays and a lack of new purchase deals, reflect stress in the cocoa trade and could lead to lower prices.
Profit-Taking and Market Correction
Cocoa prices appear overbought, increasing the risk of speculative profit-taking and a market pullback.
Ghana’s Supply-Boosting Reforms
Ghana’s President-elect plans to revamp the cocoa sector and improve production efficiency, which could add to future supply.
Stronger U.S. Dollar
A stronger USD makes cocoa more expensive for international buyers, reducing demand and putting pressure on prices.
Soft Commodities Correction
Coffee and sugar prices are already correcting, suggesting cocoa may be next in line as markets tend to move together during broader pullbacks.
