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Commodities Uptrend Incoming? | CRB Commodity Index ($TRJEFFCRB)✨ Drop a comment asking for an update, we do NEW setups every day! ✨ Like, Comment & Follow to help the community grow 🎉🎉 --- Commodities have rallied into resistance. We are currently looking for a pullback to the last support range. To chart this we are looking at the Thomson Reuters/CoreCommodity CRB Commodity Index (TRJEFFCRB), which is an index comprised of 19 commodities: aluminum, cocoa, coffee, copper, corn, cotton, crude oil, gold, heating oil, Lean Hogs, live cattle, natural gas, nickel, orange juice, silver, soybeans, sugar, unleaded gas, and wheat. For those who want to trade the price action, one could take a position with Commodities ETFs like Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) and First Trust Global Tactical Commodity Strat ETF (FTGC). With that said, we aren't trading this one, we are just looking at levels. Although the trend is still bearish overall, it is interesting to see commodities trending up to resistance as money is being created by central banks. It is a longstanding economic theory that inflation should cause an increase in the price of commoidites, and that commodity price increases are a leading indicator of inflation. While the correlation between commodities and money printing hasn't been noticeable in recent years, COVID-19 has changed things up a bit and it'll be interesting to see if old trends repeat or new trends emerge (consider things like recent meat processing issues increasing the cost of meat, and the recent temporary drop in the price of oil to zero). Although the trend is currently bearish, we are only looking levels of interest. We see two relevant support levels, S1 and S2. S1 would be of particular interest if commodities were going to officially start trending up. If we do get more upside, R1 and R2 are both levels to watch. R2 specifically represents the bottom of the previous range before COVID, and seems like a logical target in an uptrend. To sum it all up, tracking commodities can help us to make profitable trades, either on specific commodities or baskets of commodities via ETFs like the ones noted above, but it is also academically interesting. Could a spike in commodities prices now signal coming inflation from an increase of the money supply? Should we be filling our freezer with OJ and beef to avoid higher prices in the near future? Or, should we just be looking for bullish continuation or bearish consolidation to help us find a nice setup on oil, coffee, and gold? Resource: mises.org + www.investopedia.com
TVC:TRJEFFCRB
by AlphaBotSystem
Luckin Coffee - Hard time finding one in ChinaBeyond Technical Analysis I am back from my 2-week trip to China, where I spent time in Beijing (China's capital), Shanghai, and a few days in Hong Kong. My experience: Its presence is non-existent. In terms of how many stores, as well as the quality (size, location, etc.) I saw over there, I found Starbucks to be the most important coffee. Another coffee shop I found to be very attractive was named Costa Coffee. I also talked with people living in the main parts there, and no one seemed to know, or care about Luckin Coffee. I would be careful with what news we hear; since before the trip I was expecting to see a Luckin Coffee store in every corner.
LShort
by dorfmanmaster
Amazing Opportunity To Go Long Chinese $LK (Chinese Starbucks)I will keep this brief > Just wanted to give some bullets. I believe the Plunge has resulted in a major overreaction and the current 4-6 levels provide a great opp for longs. The risks of further downside have been mitigated by recent corporate action to right the ship. THE BAD NEWS IS BEHIND AND STOCK HAS PLUMMETED 85%+ IN RECENT DAYS 1. The 300 mil accounting flub doesn't equate to the 6 Billion that was wiped off it's valuation 2. It's very Bullish that a independent 3rd party will now verify all numbers going forward 3. The scandal hasn’t dampened Chinese customers’ love for the company and they continue to choose it 4-1 over starbucks 4. China's Coffee Craze is just starting , on average 1 cup per person per year vs in comparison U.S. is at 400 cups per year and countries in Europe like Norway and Sweden are above 1,000 cups per year China's coffee market therefore offers boundless potential. The coffee market is growing by 30% annually as the younger -mid demographic is choosing Coffee over Tea 5.Has over 4500 stores a larger footprint the Star bucks which has around 4000 qz.com
LLong
by InvisbleHand
5
Luckin's not Lucky...Breaking today, Lukin's COO (Jian Liu) said to have fabricated sales in a massive overstatement of 2019 revs. But by how much? Previously stated sales in 2019 were 2.9 billion yuan ($413 million). Overstated 2019 sales by about 2.2 billion yuan ($310 million). So essentially... -75.86 % of their revenue was overstated! Incredibly surprising... but this goes to show how easy it is to obfuscate information and not have someone follow up with fundamental research. Worrisome for the region as well.
LShort
by CrosbyVenture
4
STARBUCKS (SBUX) | Buy when there's blood in the streets IVHi, Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of specialty coffee worldwide. The company operates in three segments: Americas; International; and Channel Development. Its stores offer coffee and tea beverages, roasted whole bean and ground coffees, single-serve and ready-to-drink beverages, and iced tea; and various food products, such as pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch items. Starbucks, well-known coffee "producer", has started to approach a pretty significant support level. It consists of clean price action levels and in technical analysis clean = strong! Many big companies have found resistance in the first attempt to break above the psychological number of $100 and many of them has found a new support level around 60. Hopefully, Starbucks is not an exception, luckily we have really great support waiting for us which allows jumping into another potential wave upwards! "Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own." - technical analysis is perfect for that kind of market situation. Technical analysis gives you just a little bit more a sense of security: you had a plan, you have waited for some certain price levels, you have a long-term perspective about the company and you have done everything correctly to buy it - after that, your decision is on the hands of the market. Technical analysis criteria are pointed $55 - $65: 1) 2015 and 2017 resistance levels become support. 2) Clean trendline and the support level make up a crossing area, a good sign! 3) Fibonacci retracement 38% 4) Fibo Extension 200% 5) Monthly Exponential Moving Average 100 (EMA100) adding strength to the marked area. As said, do your own fundamental research and if this matching with my technical analysis viewpoints then you are ready to go! If it doesn't match then...skip it!! Good luck, Vaido
NASDAQ:SBUXLong
by VaidoVeek
ACB, right into my target box.First buy box reached. I had reserved an amount for this moment, and I have divided that amount into three baskets. The first one filled at $1.15. The next FIB level down is around $0.89, but this may very well bounce at the $1 psychological level. A third will be purchased if it drops into the box below $0.80. At the moment, judging from a fundamental perspective, ACB is trading at fair value. I am also convinced that ACB will make a comeback at some point. What we need to understand, is that it will definitely run out of cash if the market doesn't pick up soon. There is also the slight possibility that ACB would attract a strategic investor, but I would expect such an investment to provide perhaps $500M, and a deal would possibly look similar to Auxly's recent strategic investment by Imperial Brands. There is no telling me that a broad range of conglomerates isn't watching the cannabis industry with anticipation, but there is no telling whom and when they will act. A little of topic here, but my point is that if you do choose to speculate on a bounce, you should understand first of all that it is very speculative, and you should prepare for news about share dilution to raise more cash once the current prospectus becomes exhausted. Yet, a lot can happen before that time. It would be beautiful if all three of my orders get filled. But it would also be beautiful to see a few months of solid rangebound, sideways trading. I am expecting at least another disastrous quarter, and thus I am in no hurry. If it would suddenly turn bullish, there is still time to enter on a buy signal... Ultimately, I have a stopp loss at $0.40. Lets hope it doesn't come to that.
A
by Barkworth
6
Coffee (KC) analysisAfter the strong bullish speculation on sugar finally ended, with the price is returning to more realistic values, my attention shifted to coffee. Coffee, which was also heavily speculated upwards, reaching an absurd price of $ 140, has returned to the $ 100 area and then rebounded. At the end of the bounce, as you can see from the chart below, a distribution phase has begun, what in the candlestick analysis is called "checkmate." Coffee, if there is no particularly positive news and data, will fall again in the coming weeks. Both because of the coronavirus effect, and because Brazilian production has grown a lot (also helped by the favourable climate), which will bring the price down. Also (confidential news), a well-known Italian coffee company is still waiting to fix the price of the next deliveries, as it is sure that the contango will drop, as well as the prices. Next short targets: $ 106.50/108.00 - $ 101.00 - $ 97.50/99.00 - $ 94.00.
ICEUS:KC1!Short
by TradingwDavid
2
COFFEE FUTURES (KC1!): 15-Year Low Ahead I am not a coffee trader but we rarely see a trading opportunity like that so I want to show it to you!) if we look far left on a weekly timeframe, we can notice with you that 87 level was tested 15 years ago last time. It looks like sellers are willing to push the market to that level and I think that the reaction will be lit. I believe that a huge amount of buying pending orders is placed within the underlined area. So if you are a futures trader, pay close attention to coffee futures and be prepared. good luck!
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by VasilyTrader
5
CHINA VIRUS IS FAKE NEWS! READ THIS POST & BUY THE MARKET!!!Folks, and our followers... The Chinese flue is "FAKE NEWS" only meant to cast a shadow over the BOOMING USA Economy and scare the public around the world...! The SICK Liberals and Dirty Democrats want the USA stock market and stock markets around the world to crash and the USA economy to sink! These people are SICK..!!! The real statistics you need to know about before selling into this FAKE NEWS China Flu Scam ... Each year, over 600,000 people die from the FLU... In 2018 alone, over 80,000 people died from the FLU... Did we see the market crash in 2018..? NO NO NO..!!! As of this post, there are ONLY 8 CASES of the dirty China flue in the USA...The FAKE NEWS continues their SICK agenda to try and crash the USA Economy before the 2020 election...!!! CDC Link... www.cdc.gov Public Companies are reporting ROBUST Revenues and Profits, the China Flue is a SCAM...! BUY THE DIPS BECAUSE UNTIL WE SEE THE DEATH TOLL IN THE USA COME CLOSE, OR PASS 60,000 TO 80,000 DEATHS FROM THE CHINA FLUE, IT'S FAKE NEWS!!! DO NOT LET THE FAKE NEWS SCARE YOU INTO SELLING. BUY BUY BUY
LLong
by UnknownUnicorn3159981
4
Coffee has taken a dive, now looks ready to rally againPost the sugar-rush of speculative buyers, the commodity sold off heavily, gapping through a short term uptrend-line. Now the commodity, represented by the ETF JO, looks to be stabilizing at the 38.2% Fibonacci level from the Dec 13 high. Moreover, we see a cluster of moving averages, including the 200day Exponential Moving Average at this level. Given the current risk-on, and dollar-down environment, coffee should be supported moving forward. This sell-off is overdone, and other soft commods such as Cocoa and Sugar have performed splendidly in recent weeks. There is no reason for Coffee not to do the same. I am targeting new near term highs, and a 141% extension from the previous rally off the lows.
JLong
by MT-Macro
Coffee: Supply and DemandIf you like this idea, don't forget to support it clicking the Like Button! Coffee futures continued to drop, now trading on a strong support area ($115). The price has recently soared ($142) due to Brazil's supply difficulties. On the other hand, I'm expecting Coffe demand to be stable or even grow, supporting the rise of Coffee prices. Disclosure: My ideas contain statements and projections based on assumptions on capital markets, and therefore inherently subject to numerous risks and uncertainties. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion or consult a financial advisor. Investing includes risks, including loss of principal. I am not a financial advisor.
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by Investing_Fellow