Long SBUX For A Quick GainOutside of being one of the most well managed companies on the market , technicals seem to indicate a short-term bump up is pending.
Price action seems to indicate fairly strong support at this point. Looking four a move to around the $78 region before encountering some resistance. On the downside support seems to be strong at the $74 region.
Volume seems to have found it's footing, and accumulation is on the rise.
MACD Histogram is clearly indicating a bullish run, and the fast line is making a bullish cross.
Coffee
Starbucks Mirroring 2013 Upmove, Second Wave Aiming for $97Price has been trading steadily within a long term bullish Uptrend Channel, since Jan 2011 up till today (24 July 2014)
Price has recently trace from High of around $81.00 (26 Nov 2013) and found support along the Uptrend Channel Line.
We also note a minor double bottom (31 Jan 204 - 16 May 2014) within the Channel. This indicates a reversal of the bearish retracement move, for a continuation of the general uptrend
We note a similar double bottom (06 Aug 2012 - 22 Oct 2012) within a trend channel, which leads to price reaching around $81.00 (06 Nov 2013). We project that the price action now will attempt to proportionately replicate this upward movement once more, leading to a breakout.
For price to breakout, it must successfully trade and sustain above the resistance band between $81.60 to $80.00
Theoretical Price Projection:
$97.36 ( Proportional Projection of Retracement/ Up move)
Time Span: Price should complete the up move by 30 Jan 2015
Price will also most likely respect and trade within the Uptrend Channel line, until a reversal pattern forms.
Risk: There is a risk of bull trap, whereby price breaks slightly above the Resistance Band,
trade back below 80.00 to form a Double Top Reversal pattern to reverse the uptrend.
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Which reversal pattern will Prevail ??Looking at JO the recent strength in looks super bullish. Eventhough im proposing the alternate idea of a double top, I still think the bullish trend is intact. However, i can't help but to think about the downside risk. I believe coffee needs to consolidate, either though price ( a sell off) or through time (sideways movement.) I don't feel comfortable going either long or short. The risk- reward does not look appealing. Even if we retrace to the 0.618 level, the chart would still be bullish long-term and it would present a better risk to reward ratio. Although a breakout entry above 42.00 does look like an aggressive and tempting opportunity. I'm staying away from this trade. There are better opportunities out there. Just interesting to ponder which way its gonna play??