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Coffee_analysis

Coffee C Futures possible medium term viewThis is what I expect to unfold over the coming weeks and months: While Coffee is relatively muted of late, when it breaks out it normally breaks out strongly. An ending 5th wave diagonal seems to be the rule rather than the exception the the end of any downward move. As always, it is difficult to count the ABCDE waves in a pattern like this - and there is no guarantee of an upwards breakout) but a breakout with good volume would seem worth buying (there are a couple of bear and bull traps evident already), - There seems to be rather strong support acting on the floor of coffee for the past few years (vertical arrows) at around $100 - wave (C) could not extend 1:1 of wave (A) because that would mean negative prices. - When prices drop this low, a strong bounce normally occurs, - I would wait to trade this after it forms wave 1 and 2 up (at least a triangle trend-line break, retrace <100% of wave 1, and a break of the wave 1 extreme with conviction - then hang on for the ride. Due to the large volatility in its swift price increases, I would keep my stop-loss just below the start of the move until I can clearly identify the larger degree wave 2 and then wave 4. This is only published for my own education and interest. I do not presently participate in a platform that will allow me to trade coffee but I will want to change this as its potential volatility is very attractive. This is 100% technical analysis and 0% fundamental analysis. I am interested as to whether TA can stand on its own two feet. I have noticed that I haven't being paying less for a cuppa as the commodity prices decline, so I also won't accept price increases when the underlying commodity price does jump.
KLong
by flyinkiwi10
2
Your morning buzz getting cheaperYo dudes and dudetts! Your monring coffee is getting cheaper this summer! Well, at least in the short term that's what it looks like. Coffee has been moving steadily lower inside its range since the beginning of the year. There's a pretty clear trend looking at the highs from December/January. As we approach the edge of this I'll be expecting a breakout lower, at least initally, after that lets see. My downside target is 110 corresponding to the fib exetnsion, although anything below 113 and I'll consider the start of a breakout to the lower obejctive. Will this breakout form the low of the year? Or will we keep going lower? What's your opinion, up, down, sideways? Share your charts, and comments below! Would love to hear what you think! :) Note: All ideas expressed here are presented solely for learning and educational purposes only. Any gains or losses assumed by trading ideas presented by The Bad Panda are done so at your own risk.
KShort
by TheBadPanda
Coffee just woke up, at least in the short termSo no breakout... instead a rejection, which means I'm switching bias! Who thinks the rally we saw in coffee last week will form the year low? Possible ins't it? I'm still overall bearish, but based on the reaction we saw from support at 113, I think we'll see a retracement before we get back down below the current year low. Since we saw this reaction off the edge of the range, it makes sense to retrace higher a little further to the next resistance level (a higher consolidation). Well, at least in the short term that's what it looks like. my upside target on the fib is 124, and you can see the buy zone below 118.70. I bet you're wondering what happens if it burns lower through the buy zone? Then it's my second loss on this pair in as many weeks, and I'll go chill on the beach :D What's your opinion, up, down, sideways? Share your charts, and comments below! Would love to hear what you think! :) Note: All ideas expressed here are presented solely for learning and educational purposes only. Any gains or losses assumed by trading ideas presented by The Bad Panda are done so at your own risk.
KLong
by TheBadPanda