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Coffee_futures

Coffee price keeps the negativity – AnalysisCoffee price provided more negative closings by consolidating below 178.00 resistance, to start reacting to the major indicators by declining towards 159.40, expecting to continue forming negative crawl and attempt to touch 154.00, while breaking this obstacle will extend trades towards 147.10 to face the historical support that appears on the chart, assuring the importance of monitoring its behavior to manage to detect the next main trend.
PEPPERSTONE:COFFEEShort
by eltonmorningstar
COFFEE - Possible "coffee break" aheadCoffee is back around the price of the beginning of the month. Since OCT 2 we have a shy uptrend forming for coffee’s standards, in the 4h time frame (TF). The price went up from its lowest of the current month and $104.90 to $113.35 (+8.04%) on OCT 12 and $111.70 (+6.45%) today so far. The trend on the Higher TFs is still bearish and technically this is where are now. We have some indications suggesting that we might be in front of a total reversal for the price of Coffee. There are: 1) Higher lows since OCT 2 2) at the 4h TF since OCT 9 from the 10 bars 8 of them are above the 50MA 3) we had two major tests (and rejections) for price to break above two week resistance 4) we expect the price to reach at some point soon the monthly Fib 0.382 level Against the above are the latest data from the COT report of OCT 6 where hedge funds closed 3.207 positions and opened 4.219 bringing the Net Long positions to 47.505 from 54.931 the previous week. Of course we still don’t know what their positions are for the current week. So what we make out of all this. To put it in simple terms with what I know so far the longer the price remains above the 50MA the more the chances of it breaking the $112 and move towards the Fib 0.382. The “Decision lvl” is where the two weeks resistance meets the blue trendline. Break it and we buy. If on the other hand price breaks below the green trend line and the 20MA then we might be looking for more to the down. Good luck traders Note: I'm no trading expert nor have the ambition to become one! The above is just an idea that I share with the intention of attracting comments and perhaps become a better trader.
ICEUS:KC1!
by A_Bouras
4
COFFEE - Turning the tide ?Coffee after a 3 week structure and battle seems to be making a break towards the Fib 0.382. The higher time frames still point down. The ADX indicator shows uptrend but no strength yet (it usually has a delay on that). The COT of Sep 29 shows a lot of long orders closed (-3745) and more short open (+3065) with net long positions to 54931 compared to 61741 of the week before that. So hudge funds expect more to the down. We might have a turn of tide for coffee if this is not a false breakout, at least up to the Fib 0.382 area. I will start engaging buy orders just after the decision level (green line) is broken to the upside by solid moves, maybe wait for the day to close. Good luck traders. Note: I'm no trading expert nor have the ambition to become one! The above is just an idea that I share with the intention of attracting comments and perhaps become a better trader.
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by A_Bouras
COFFEE FUTURES - Wake up and smell the coffeeCOFFEE holded the support area of ~109.20-109.50 and made a pullback breaking the trendline (marked green on chart). However the bulls seem to be sleepy so I believe the trend continues to be bearish and we have to monitor how price will react to make our decision. Personally I'm considering a short position around the area marked on the chart. Potential profit to blue line which is the next support area. So as mentioned on the chart we monitor price and have our finger on the trigger. Good luck traders. Note: I'm no trading expert nor have the ambition to become one! The above is just an idea that I share with the intention of attracting comments and perhaps become better at trading commodities.
ICEUS:KC1!Short
by A_Bouras
Coffee (KC) analysisAfter the strong bullish speculation on sugar finally ended, with the price is returning to more realistic values, my attention shifted to coffee. Coffee, which was also heavily speculated upwards, reaching an absurd price of $ 140, has returned to the $ 100 area and then rebounded. At the end of the bounce, as you can see from the chart below, a distribution phase has begun, what in the candlestick analysis is called "checkmate." Coffee, if there is no particularly positive news and data, will fall again in the coming weeks. Both because of the coronavirus effect, and because Brazilian production has grown a lot (also helped by the favourable climate), which will bring the price down. Also (confidential news), a well-known Italian coffee company is still waiting to fix the price of the next deliveries, as it is sure that the contango will drop, as well as the prices. Next short targets: $ 106.50/108.00 - $ 101.00 - $ 97.50/99.00 - $ 94.00.
ICEUS:KC1!Short
by TradingwDavid
2