FIRST WEEK AFTER NFP, LET'S TRADE SAFELeft shoulder spotted on 4hr TF, Currently scalping buys to complete the Head thus, my selling confirmations I've placed
Cognition
The markets are there to make you feel stupid or brilliantMany a trader will have made their best analysis based on information at the time and then taken an entry position, only to find that the market does something unexpected. Price may move violently in the wrong direction i.e. not the favoured direction and comes close to a stop loss or actually stopping out the position for a loss. Now with hindsight a trader feels or thinks, " How stupid - I should have seen it coming. I shouldn't have done that. "
This happens enough times to new traders. Seasoned traders live with it and have less such self-talk. I think it's important to acknowledge those feelings. These are partly thinking processes and emotional processes. New traders often feel demoralised after 10 or so failures in a row. " Am I doing something wrong? " - they may think. This is a reasonable question. It could be that something is wrong. However, nothing may be found wrong with one's methodology or application of one's personal rules - after a careful reassessment. It's good to check.
The BTCUSD chart shows what is some sort of 'head and shoulders' pattern. It's not the best picture of it in the world but something is there. Wherever one takes a position in BTCUSD, it could be wrong. Why? The markets respect no one person.
A proportion of traders will have taken a position in this and made some real profits. They will punch the air and with joy go, " YESSSS!! " From my long experience I've learned that 'feelings' of being right or wrong, actually bends the mind a trader. I'm speaking for myself quite clearly. Others may have similar experience. A feeling of being good after a string of wins, often creates a subconscious sense of confidence. Imperceptibly this can creep into future trades and then one realises some major losses.
My own strategy is to try at best to reduce trading frequency and exert even greater diligence in entering trades after a series of wins. I aim to expect the unexpected. It's always a tad difficult when I get stopped out for a loss. But I repeat to myself that the stoploss is there to protect against the 'unexpected' - so it's not actually unexpected. It is a limit. It is the expected limit of price moving not in a favoured direction.
There is no single path to 'a promised land' in trading. Traders can adopt different methods, different rules, and be consistently profitable. The largest obstacle which is difficult to train out a trader, is their own personal psychology . By this I mean things like attention to detail, biases, emotions, discipline etc. So in many ways feeling stupid or brilliant can affect our future decision-making in imperceptible ways. Traders can lose discipline after losses or big gains. Mark Douglas spoke about these sorts of things.
The BTCUSD chart is not intended to attract thoughts on whether to go long or go short. I'm not really interested in whether the H&S is there at all or correctly drawn. I'm taking it beyond that. What happens next to traders who come out of this period - some bruised, some overjoyed? Trading is not about winning one trade or a small handful. It's about the long road ahead.
I'm delighted if others can share their experiences.
