Waiting for a real breakdownRight now, we are in a symmetrical triangle and we are going to have fake-out moves on the smaller time frames like we did just a few minutes ago that don't involve any real volume. Now we can see that consolidation is almost over and it's almost time to choose a trend. Since we made the peak at $315, we've had several patterns that might indicate a move, when really, the price was just in consolidation, and I warned against putting too much faith or trust in these patterns since they weren't on a big enough time frame.
This time, I don't think we will have another fake-out. When we break down on significant volume, which I expect to happen, it will become the trend. Right now, I see us making lower highs including the run up to $268 with a very weak pattern of slightly higher lows on the $230 support line. Given that the predominant trend is still down, this pattern favors a move down.
Once this pattern breaks down, the first target is the recent lows in the $160s and possibly a continuation after that.
