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The market is at a crossroadsOver the weekend, Bitcoin jumped above $22 000. However, the rebound did not last long, and Bitcoin fell toward the $21 700 price tag, where it currently trades. We have not yet seen developments confirming the short-term trend reversal (from bullish to bearish). Therefore we are very cautious and pay close attention to two particular price levels at $21 473 (support) and $22 314 (resistance). If the price breaks below $21 473, it will further bolster a bearish case in the short term; in such a scenario, we would like to see a pick-up in volume. On the other hand, a breakout above $22 314 will support a bullish case, potentially hinting at a retest of $22 500 and $23 000. Besides mentioned price levels, we also watch the price action in the stock market to which Bitcoin stays highly correlated. To support a bearish case, we would like to see stocks go lower, sparking risk aversion among investors. Contrarily, to support a bullish case, we would want to see the stock market start erasing some of its recent losses, providing aid for the cryptocurrency market. Overall, we would say that the market is at a critical point where it might either start breaking down or recovering losses and marching higher. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and two simple moving averages. The 20-day SMA acts as another form of resistance. Meanwhile, the 50-day SMA has a role of support. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the weekly chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow indicates a price retracement toward the 50-week SMA, which often coincides with the strong correction of a primary trend. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
39
Dreams and hopes about the bull market will get crushedWith the majority of the popular profiles being bullish all the time, we have seen them call for the market bottom and primary trend reversal multiple times in the past year and a half. Then since October 2022, when Bitcoin made a low of $15 479, these calls have become even more omnipotent, with people profoundly believing in their ability to assess the situation correctly and time the market. However, history has taught us that this is rarely true, especially regarding retail investors and lay traders. We continue to notice a lot of flawed opinions on TradingView, which forget to take into account fundamental driving forces of the market, including monetary policy and corporate earnings. In fact, some people like Alan Santana went as far as to say there will be no pullbacks in the “current” cryptocurrency bull market. Honestly, we do not know what to say about such statements anymore, only that they are promoted by people who do not know much about the market and chase clout instead. Unfortunately, it applies to 98% of the popular profiles on TradingView. Therefore, one should be wary that the number of followers does not equal market expertise or trading experience. With that said, Bitcoin trades near the $22 000 price tag, down almost 10% from its high on 2nd February 2023. The price slump follows numerous warnings we issued about the bear market rally and is no surprise to us. In our previous idea, we outlined that the daily time frame started to turn bearish. Furthermore, we said if the price dropped below the 20-day SMA, it would support a bearish case in the short term (especially if supported by a simultaneous decline in the stock market). A few days later, after our statements, this happens to be the case, and now, we would like to see increasing volume accompany a declining price. Our price targets at $15 000 and $13 000 stay unchanged. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish breakout. If the price stays below the support/resistance, it will bolster a bearish case. Contrarily, if the price retraces above the level, it will be neutral/slightly bullish. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
90
Daily time frame is turning slightly bearish, a warningBitcoin is down approximately 5% from its high of $24 258. At the moment, we are paying close attention to the price trading near the 20-day SMA. If the price breaks and holds below this moving average (acting as a support), it will bolster bearish odds and hint at a potential trend reversal. Simultaneously, to support a thesis about the reversal, we would like to see the volume continue to grow and accompany the price drop. In addition to that, we will also seek clues in the stock market, which stays highly correlated with risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Therefore, we will watch Jerome Powell’s speech and expect him to reiterate a firm stance of the FED toward raising interest rates. As a result, this might spook a market that remains overly optimistic about the economic outlook in 2023. Over time, we expect the reality of bad earnings and more tightening to sink, leading to declines across the board for stocks and cryptocurrencies. With that said, our price targets for BTCUSD stay at $15 000 and $13 000. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow indicates the retracement of the price toward the 20-day SMA. A breakout below both 20-day and 50-day SMAs will be very bearish. Contrarily, if the price holds above the 20-day SMA, it will be bullish. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral/Slightly bullish Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. If the price breaks below Immediate support/resistance, it will add to a bearish case; the same applies to a breakout below Support 1. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
48
FOMO, market euphoria, and the market set for the repricingBitcoin is up approximately 46% since its 2022 low, and market euphoria is taking over. There is a tremendous increase in ideas claiming a primary trend reversal (from bearish to bullish) and people dismissing any chances of a recession in 2023. However, we want to take a step back and ignore the noise. Over the past year (since the 2021 market top), there were four rallies (excluding the current one); on average, they lasted 40.7 days and returned 35.3%. During that same time, there were five significant selloffs; on average, they endured 42.6 days and erased 41.5% of the value. The current rally (from the 2022 low) has continued for 63 days and returned approximately 46%, which does not represent anything out of the ordinary compared to previous rallies in the past year (see Illustration 1.01 and Illustration 1.02). In addition to that, the stock market has been gaining over the past few weeks, providing a lift to highly correlated cryptocurrencies. However, with tech earnings in progress and many big names set to report their full-year 2022 results in the coming days, the sentiment may change quickly. As if it was not enough, the daily volume has shown a significant decline after Bitcoin broke above $21 000, raising questions about the rally's sustainability. Therefore, just like on previous occasions with deceitful rallies in the past year, we raise a word of caution to market participants. Overall, there are still many problems in the system, which should be reminded to investors by the latest bankruptcy of Genesis, with more than $5 billion in liabilities (and implications for Gemini, DCG, and other institutions). Thus, we remain very skeptical about the current rally, which is reminiscent of “FOMO” rather than a healthy recovery. As a result, we maintain our price targets for Bitcoin at $15 000 and $13 000. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. The length and magnitude of particular price moves between peaks and troughs in the bear market can be seen. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows additional price moves between peaks and troughs in the past year. Interestingly, 63 days have passed since the last trough displayed on the chart. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Slightly bullish Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD. For the first half of January 2023, the volume can be seen rising, which is bullish. However, with Bitcoin breaking above $21 000, a worrisome drop in volume can be observed. In our previous article, we outlined that such development would support a bearish case beyond the short term. Therefore, we are very cautious and looking for more signs of exhaustion. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
52
BTCUSD breaks above $19 000; has a new bull market begun?In our last post on Bitcoin, we reiterated our bearish stance (beyond the short-term). However, we also allowed for the possibility of BTCUSD moving higher after breaking above $17 250 (the upper bound of a narrow range). Since then, the volume has seen gradual growth accompanying a price increase of more than 10%. Furthermore, the daily time frame has managed to turn bullish. At the same time, the stock market has been enjoying gains, providing support for the cryptocurrencies, which stay highly correlated to it. As we stated in our last idea, we expect this combination of bullish factors to have no impact on the primary bearish trend. As a result, we will pay close attention to market developments and technical factors (especially volume). We expect earning season in the stock market to reveal more underlying economic problems, eventually leading to lower prices and also affecting cryptocurrencies. Conclusively, we expect the bear market to unravel further in the coming months, taking Bitcoin to new lows. Accordingly, we maintain our price targets at $15 000 and $13 000. *As the answer to the question "has a new bull market begun?" - No, that is very unlikely.* Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and the narrow range formation with the breakout above its upper bound. Green arrows indicate growing volume accompanying an increasing price, which is bullish. However, after the breakout, the price rose approximately 10% (only within three days). We will observe volume (area of interest) and look for a decline, indicating the rally's exhaustion; contrarily, no decline in volume will suggest a continuation of the rally (for the short term.) Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and two simple moving averages. The yellow arrow indicates the bullish breakout above the alternative resistance level. Interestingly, SMAs are in a bullish constellation. Although, the recent lack of trend can cause them to produce misleading signals due to whipsaws. Currently, the price is too far from its SMAs, which might foreshadow a retracement. Therefore, we raise a word of caution over the recent move up. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 portrays the daily chart of BTCUSD and several previous downtrend corrections. As a matter of fact, these corrections often ranged between 20% and 40%, which means the current rally might turn out to be nothing out of the ordinary (only another fake rally). In our opinion, the current price is very attractive for the short position. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
39
Resemblance between BTC's graph and ETH's chartAs Ethereum’s chart closely resembles Bitcoin’s graph, there is not much to report. Despite that, we would like to remind our audience that we stay committed to our price targets of 1000$ and 900$. Our thesis is based on a combination of fundamental and technical factors explained in the idea attached to Illustration 1.01. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD, which highlights the structural resemblance between Ethereum and Bitcoin. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
20
Bitcoin is getting stuck within the narrow rangeBitcoin is getting stuck within the narrow range, manifesting a neutral trend. It currently trades near $17 200, which is slightly below the range's upper bound. In the big picture, we continue to be bearish on Bitcoin. However, the lack of a trend makes a case for both scenarios, bullish and bearish. Therefore, we will pay close attention to the price action and setup we introduced a while ago (displayed in Illustration 1.01). If the price breaks above the range, then we may expect a short-term rally. Though, in such a scenario, we do not expect it to impact the primary bearish trend. At best, we can imagine BTCUSD rallying to $20 000 (but we are very skeptical about that). Therefore, if a breakout to the upside occurs, we will monitor volume and look for signs of exhaustion. Contrarily, a breakout to the downside will bolster the bearish case, potentially leading Bitcoin to new lows. In addition to what we stated, the bullish case can get additional support from the stock market (if it continues higher), providing a temporary lifeline for cryptocurrencies. However, if that happens, we once again expect it to be only short-lived. With that said, we maintain our price targets for Bitcoin at $15 000 and $13 000. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and a series of breakouts from the narrow range with subsequent invalidations; the range grows in significance. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Neutral Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows simple support/resistance levels for BTCUSD. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
27
Narrative of growing interest in BTC is nonsenseOver the past two months, Bitcoin’s volatility and volume have diminished significantly, which hardly supports the bullish narrative about the growing interest in Bitcoin. At the same time, active addresses holding Bitcoin dropped from 5 165 158 on 7th November 2022 to only 4 585 372 on 26th December 2022 (based on the information obtained from Glassnode), suggesting that people are holding their coins rather than buying more of them. In addition to that, attempts by several countries like Brazil and Nigeria to move closer toward designating cryptocurrencies as legal tender had no impact on the market whatsoever. That brings us to one rudimentary question in the highly speculative market (the one we already asked before) “If everyone is holding their Bitcoin and waiting for the price to go up so they can sell, who will push the market higher?”. This question is very troubling, considering that the global economy is poised to dive deeper into recession in 2023, and average investors are set to run out of savings due to growing prices of consumer goods and services (due to high inflation, which is here to stay). In fact, we expect many of these people to be forced to sell their holdings later. Furthermore, with no stimulus check handed to people from the U.S. government, we do not expect Bitcoin to repeat its success between 2020 and 2021 (at least not so soon, if ever). Contrarily, we expect much more pain for the overall cryptocurrency market and new lows to be formed in Bitcoin within the next month or two. With that said, we will pay close attention to the FED’s narrative and efforts of central banks (globally) to take on their own CBDC (Central bank digital currencies), which may threaten Bitcoin down the road. Accordingly, we stay bearish on the cryptocurrency market and maintain our price targets of 15 000$ and 13 000$. *See attached articles to view our calls since proposing the idea of a double top in November 2021.* Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and the active setup. Yellow arrows indicate breakouts above and below the narrow range. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral Illustration 1.02 The picture above illustrates the weekly chart of BTCUSD. The red arrow shows declining volume since early November 2022, which hardly supports the bullish narrative and growing interest in Bitcoin. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
54
Ripple - Do not be without worries On 8th August 2022, we introduced a setup with two alternative trades coming after the breakout from the wide range in which XRPUSD oscillated for some time. A few days later, a piece of news concerning a minor win for Ripple Labs Inc. against the SEC sparked a buying frenzy that propelled the price more than 40%. Meanwhile, in the early stage of the rally, we noted that this price action merely represented “buy the rumor, sell the fact.” Then, during the rally, we continued to warn investors about the unsustainability of the move as we hinted at decreasing volume in spite of the rising price. Indeed, we raised this issue again after another bullish breakout from the symmetrical triangle took place. Soon after that, our worries came to fruition, and XRP began its decline. At the moment, XRPUSD trades almost 20% lower from its recent high on 23rd September 2022, further confirming our bearish thesis. In fact, we stick to our price targets of 0.30 USD and 0.28 USD and believe they will be reached by the end of 2022. Our views are supported by persisting bearish macroeconomic factors and technical indicators pointing to more downside for this cryptocurrency. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XRPUSD. The price is down almost 20% from its recent peak of 0.558 USD, and volume continues to reflect the declining interest in XRP among new investors. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI is bearish. The same applies to Stochastic and MACD. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the daily time frame is turning bearish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the monthly chart of XRPUSD, showing it deep in the bear market territory. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic show signs of exhaustion. DM+ and DM- stay bullish. Overall, the weekly time frame is turning bearish. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 shows the mentioned setup from 8th August 2022. That same day, we set a medium-term price target for XRPUSD at 0.30 USD and a long-term price target of 0.28 USD, abstaining from setting a price target for the short-term (due to the price being in the neutral trend). Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
65
Coinbase - small bounce before the dump (1h timeframe trade)The price moves in the channel . At the moment the double bottom pattern on 1h timeframe is valid and we expect the push up towards the downsloping resistance line . After that, we should see one more dump before we reach 'aggresive' target from Head and shoulders that we identified some time ago: Conservative target was already reached. You can long it now or short it at the resistance. Targets are shown on the chart Good luck
NASDAQ:COINLong
by vf_investment
10
Coinbase stock will follow Bitcoin?Bitcoin broke the key level which it held for many months. Yesterday Coinbase´s price bounced from the key support however we expect that Coinbase stock will follow Bitcoin´s path therefore getting rejected from the resistance (red line) wouldn´t be surprising. According to technical analysis, support which is tested more times is more likely to break down. If the price retests the support at 45 $ again, we believe that it will break and from there the price will drop to $16 - $ 20 which could be a bottom. It´s also a 1,618 fib extension. Sentiment in cryptocurrency market is mega bearish therefore it´s likely that coinbase´s price as a crypto firm will continue decreasing. Stay safe.
NASDAQ:COINShort
by vf_investment
18
BTCUSD within the narrow rangeOver the past week, Bitcoin’s volatility diminished significantly. Currently, it trades near 16 800$ and stays within the narrow range. For as long as the price stays within this range, we will remain neutral. However, beyond that, we stay bearish and maintain our price targets of 15 000$ and 13 000$. The setup remains valid with the bearish trigger accompanying a breakout below the range and the bullish catalyst with a breakout above it. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the setup for BTCUSD that has been in place for a while now. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
14
Coinbase - head and shoulders pattern (NEW)What we can see on the chart is a potential head and shoulders pattern forming. Currently the price might be forming the right shoulder. If this pattern were to form itself fully , we will be looking for a break down with a volume surge. The target from this formation would be around $32. If you enter short position, remember to put a stop loss which could be placed above the head of the pattern. Now let's see what we're gonna get. Good luck
NASDAQ:COINShort
by vf_investment
6
Will Binance fall? How low can Bitcoin go then?The price of Bitcoin faltered shortly after our previous post. Indeed, Bitcoin erased all of its gains and returned to the narrow range before breaking below it. Currently, it trades near the range’s lower bound at 16 800$. As for our stance, we continue to be bearish on BTCUSD and remain skeptical of calls for the market bottom. We believe the bear market has not ended, and Bitcoin will mark new lows over time. Accordingly, we maintain our price targets of 15 000$ and 13 000$. However, there are growing chances of Bitcoin dropping much lower than that. Especially if we consider that the stock market might be only halfway through the bear market and the economic situation will continue to deteriorate in the coming months. We view more interest rate hikes as very negative for Bitcoin and the overall cryptocurrency space, which is highly correlated with the stock market. As a result, we expect this to weigh on the corporate side of the market, which brings us to what many people have questions about - Will Binance fall? We simply do not know. But we know that a financial institution needs liquidity and to generate enough revenue in order to stay in business. In 2022, Binance’s competitor Coinbase has been having problems achieving the latter. The company has lost more than $1.9 billion in the first three quarters. In addition to that, Coinbase disclosed a staggering decline in trading volume from $327 billion to $159 billion(YoY) in the third quarter of 2022 (down from a peak of $547 billion. in Q4 2021). All that, while Coinbase has only about $8.1 billion in market cap. All that makes us wonder whether the systemic fall has to come from Binance. Perhaps, Binance might fall as a result of other companies going bust in one coordinated fashion. Therefore, we raise caution to a very high level. In the case of the systemic downfall, we foresee Bitcoin dropping below 10 000$. Illustration 1.01 To support our bearish thesis, we would like to see the inability of the price to hold above 16 800$. Furthermore, we would like to see a pick-up in volume accompanying a price lower. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and two simple moving averages. We would like to see a bearish crossover between these moving averages to further support our bearish thesis. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
33
Shares of Coinbase underperform vs. cryptocurrency marketSince our previous article on Coinbase, the price of shares has drifted to new lows before staging a rebound. Currently, the price hovers around 35.6$, which is down more than 91% from its all-time high value in 2021. With many structural problems in the cryptocurrency market, we doubt the stock will reverse the primary downtrend anytime soon. Thus, after the relief ceases, we expect Coinbase to retest its recent lows. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows an astounding decline of more than 90% in the value of Coinbase stock from its all-time-high value in 2021. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ:COINShort
by Tradersweekly
20
The narrow range, upcoming rate hike, and market foesThe current week will bring exciting events to the cryptocurrency market, with the FOMC decision coming out on Wednesday. Currently, the FED is expected to hike rates by 50 basis points, which drives the narrative of a mini-pivot. However, we disagree with this assessment as we argue that higher rates will still put more burden on the economy, which is already slowing down significantly. As a result of the rate hike, we expect a return of the risk of aversion, affecting the price of Bitcoin and dragging it lower over time. Furthermore, the cryptocurrency market still has not gone through the fallout of FTX, leaving many questions about market stability open. In our opinion, the market will likely see more bankruptcies among cryptocurrency institutions in the coming months, threatening the current calls for the market bottom. Therefore, we remain skeptical about these statements and stick to our bearish view. In line with that, we maintain price targets at 15 000$ and 13 000$. Illustration 1.01 Bitcoin constituted a narrow range between 16 800$ and 17 250$ in the past few days. A breakout to the upside will be bullish for the short term, while a breakout to the downside will bolster bearish odds. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Bearish Illustration 1.02 Two simple moving averages, 20-day and 50-day, stay in the bearish constellation. At the moment, the 20-day SMA acts as the immediate support level; a breakout below the support will be bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
30
Bitcoin fails to defend a 17 000$ pricetagOvernight, Bitcoin failed to defend a 17 000$ price tag as it dropped below 16 800$. The price remains choppy, and not much has changed within the past few days. Therefore, we continue to be bearish and maintain our price targets at 15 000$ and 13 000$. We will update our thoughts once new developments take place. Illustration 1.01 For the past week, volume declined, with the price going sideways. That hints at the exhaustion among buyers and raises our caution. To support the bearish thesis, we would like to see a continuation of selling pressure accompanied by a pick-up in volume. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
22
Bear market progression and shift in the sentimentDuring the summer, we warned investors about the upcoming corporate underperformance and downgrades in forward guidance for the third quarter of 2022. We also stated that this would mark the transition from the first stage of the bear market into the second stage. Interestingly, we have noticed a similar trend in the cryptocurrency community. Numerous social media influencers, celebrities, and even investors like Mike Novogratz have started to reconsider their views on the market and backtracking on earlier predictions for sky-high prices. We believe this seismic shift in the sentiment among prominent people is analogous to what is happening in the stock market. Therefore, the market bottom could still be farther than many suggest. This view is supported by the fact that the FED will continue to tighten monetary conditions, which will inadvertently lead to higher risk aversion and lower prices for cryptocurrencies. In addition to that, the marketplace is still full of bullish calls for the primary trend reversal and market bottom, not suggestive of capitulation among investors. As a result, we continue to maintain a bearish stance on Bitcoin. Accordingly, our price targets at 15 000$ and 13 000$ stay unchanged. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. Red, green, and white arrows show the relationship between the price and volume. If the price breaks above the short-term resistance, it will bolster the bullish case (for the short-term). However, we do not expect it to impact the primary trend. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
14
The ECB's strong message, dovish FED, and a high alertYesterday, Bitcoin broke above the 17 000$ price tag in spite of a strong message coming out of the European Central Bank (ECB). The official Twitter account of the ECB tweeted that the price of Bitcoin is artificially held up (at the moment) and that soon it will embark on a journey to irrelevance. This is an unusual statement from the European officials, leaving us only to speculate about the workings behind the veil. Therefore, this message puts us on high alert. The actual message from the official Twitter account of ECB: "The apparent stabilisation of bitcoin’s value is likely to be an artificially induced last gasp before the crypto-asset embarks on a road to irrelevance. #TheECBblog looks at where bitcoin stands amid widespread volatility in the crypto markets." Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, Jerome Powell said during his speech that as soon as in December 2022, the pace of rate hikes might slow down. Despite this being nothing new, the market sought a pivot in Powell’s statements and rose across the board. However, the market discounts the fact that interest rates are here to stay for much longer than initially thought. Additionally, the market participants seem to ignore that rate hikes will continue to increase, putting more pressure on debt servicing and the overall economy. As a result, we expect the bear market to continue to unravel and drag prices of cryptocurrencies and stocks much lower over time. Accordingly, we maintain our price targets at 15 000$ and 13 000$. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and two simple moving averages in a bearish constellation. The yellow arrow indicates the price retracement above the 20-day SMA, which often coincides with corrections and is bullish for the short term. Now, the 20-day SMA acts as a support level; meanwhile, the 50-day SMA acts as a resistance level. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
92
$1.5$ bn. moved, the FTX spillover effect, more trouble aheadOver the weekend, news came out that $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin was moved off the Coinbase exchange within less than 48 hours. In our opinion, this highlights high anxiety even among prominent market participants. Therefore, we voice a word of caution over the coming weeks. We believe more cryptocurrency exchanges will fall victim to improper money management, lack of due diligence, and the FTX spillover effect. With that being said, the names of the fifty biggest creditors to FTX remain unknown to the public, leaving room only for speculation as to who might belong to the list of affected parties. With over $3 billion of debt, we expect the announcement of these names to cause more havoc in the market. In addition to that, we expect more economic tightening and regulation to come in the foreseeable future, ultimately dragging the price of Bitcoin lower. Accordingly, we remain bearish on the asset and maintain our price targets at 15 000$ and 13 000$. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD. The red arrow hints at a substantial decline in volume over the past four weeks. In order to confirm our bearish thesis, we would like to see a pick-up in volume accompanied by a declining price. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bearish. DM+ and DM- are also bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
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