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Will Binance fall? How low can Bitcoin go then?The price of Bitcoin faltered shortly after our previous post. Indeed, Bitcoin erased all of its gains and returned to the narrow range before breaking below it. Currently, it trades near the range’s lower bound at 16 800$. As for our stance, we continue to be bearish on BTCUSD and remain skeptical of calls for the market bottom. We believe the bear market has not ended, and Bitcoin will mark new lows over time. Accordingly, we maintain our price targets of 15 000$ and 13 000$. However, there are growing chances of Bitcoin dropping much lower than that. Especially if we consider that the stock market might be only halfway through the bear market and the economic situation will continue to deteriorate in the coming months. We view more interest rate hikes as very negative for Bitcoin and the overall cryptocurrency space, which is highly correlated with the stock market. As a result, we expect this to weigh on the corporate side of the market, which brings us to what many people have questions about - Will Binance fall? We simply do not know. But we know that a financial institution needs liquidity and to generate enough revenue in order to stay in business. In 2022, Binance’s competitor Coinbase has been having problems achieving the latter. The company has lost more than $1.9 billion in the first three quarters. In addition to that, Coinbase disclosed a staggering decline in trading volume from $327 billion to $159 billion(YoY) in the third quarter of 2022 (down from a peak of $547 billion. in Q4 2021). All that, while Coinbase has only about $8.1 billion in market cap. All that makes us wonder whether the systemic fall has to come from Binance. Perhaps, Binance might fall as a result of other companies going bust in one coordinated fashion. Therefore, we raise caution to a very high level. In the case of the systemic downfall, we foresee Bitcoin dropping below 10 000$. Illustration 1.01 To support our bearish thesis, we would like to see the inability of the price to hold above 16 800$. Furthermore, we would like to see a pick-up in volume accompanying a price lower. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and two simple moving averages. We would like to see a bearish crossover between these moving averages to further support our bearish thesis. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
33
Shares of Coinbase underperform vs. cryptocurrency marketSince our previous article on Coinbase, the price of shares has drifted to new lows before staging a rebound. Currently, the price hovers around 35.6$, which is down more than 91% from its all-time high value in 2021. With many structural problems in the cryptocurrency market, we doubt the stock will reverse the primary downtrend anytime soon. Thus, after the relief ceases, we expect Coinbase to retest its recent lows. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows an astounding decline of more than 90% in the value of Coinbase stock from its all-time-high value in 2021. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:COINShort
by Tradersweekly
22
The narrow range, upcoming rate hike, and market foesThe current week will bring exciting events to the cryptocurrency market, with the FOMC decision coming out on Wednesday. Currently, the FED is expected to hike rates by 50 basis points, which drives the narrative of a mini-pivot. However, we disagree with this assessment as we argue that higher rates will still put more burden on the economy, which is already slowing down significantly. As a result of the rate hike, we expect a return of the risk of aversion, affecting the price of Bitcoin and dragging it lower over time. Furthermore, the cryptocurrency market still has not gone through the fallout of FTX, leaving many questions about market stability open. In our opinion, the market will likely see more bankruptcies among cryptocurrency institutions in the coming months, threatening the current calls for the market bottom. Therefore, we remain skeptical about these statements and stick to our bearish view. In line with that, we maintain price targets at 15 000$ and 13 000$. Illustration 1.01 Bitcoin constituted a narrow range between 16 800$ and 17 250$ in the past few days. A breakout to the upside will be bullish for the short term, while a breakout to the downside will bolster bearish odds. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Bearish Illustration 1.02 Two simple moving averages, 20-day and 50-day, stay in the bearish constellation. At the moment, the 20-day SMA acts as the immediate support level; a breakout below the support will be bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tradersweekly
30
Bitcoin fails to defend a 17 000$ pricetagOvernight, Bitcoin failed to defend a 17 000$ price tag as it dropped below 16 800$. The price remains choppy, and not much has changed within the past few days. Therefore, we continue to be bearish and maintain our price targets at 15 000$ and 13 000$. We will update our thoughts once new developments take place. Illustration 1.01 For the past week, volume declined, with the price going sideways. That hints at the exhaustion among buyers and raises our caution. To support the bearish thesis, we would like to see a continuation of selling pressure accompanied by a pick-up in volume. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
22
Bear market progression and shift in the sentimentDuring the summer, we warned investors about the upcoming corporate underperformance and downgrades in forward guidance for the third quarter of 2022. We also stated that this would mark the transition from the first stage of the bear market into the second stage. Interestingly, we have noticed a similar trend in the cryptocurrency community. Numerous social media influencers, celebrities, and even investors like Mike Novogratz have started to reconsider their views on the market and backtracking on earlier predictions for sky-high prices. We believe this seismic shift in the sentiment among prominent people is analogous to what is happening in the stock market. Therefore, the market bottom could still be farther than many suggest. This view is supported by the fact that the FED will continue to tighten monetary conditions, which will inadvertently lead to higher risk aversion and lower prices for cryptocurrencies. In addition to that, the marketplace is still full of bullish calls for the primary trend reversal and market bottom, not suggestive of capitulation among investors. As a result, we continue to maintain a bearish stance on Bitcoin. Accordingly, our price targets at 15 000$ and 13 000$ stay unchanged. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. Red, green, and white arrows show the relationship between the price and volume. If the price breaks above the short-term resistance, it will bolster the bullish case (for the short-term). However, we do not expect it to impact the primary trend. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
14
The ECB's strong message, dovish FED, and a high alertYesterday, Bitcoin broke above the 17 000$ price tag in spite of a strong message coming out of the European Central Bank (ECB). The official Twitter account of the ECB tweeted that the price of Bitcoin is artificially held up (at the moment) and that soon it will embark on a journey to irrelevance. This is an unusual statement from the European officials, leaving us only to speculate about the workings behind the veil. Therefore, this message puts us on high alert. The actual message from the official Twitter account of ECB: "The apparent stabilisation of bitcoin’s value is likely to be an artificially induced last gasp before the crypto-asset embarks on a road to irrelevance. #TheECBblog looks at where bitcoin stands amid widespread volatility in the crypto markets." Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, Jerome Powell said during his speech that as soon as in December 2022, the pace of rate hikes might slow down. Despite this being nothing new, the market sought a pivot in Powell’s statements and rose across the board. However, the market discounts the fact that interest rates are here to stay for much longer than initially thought. Additionally, the market participants seem to ignore that rate hikes will continue to increase, putting more pressure on debt servicing and the overall economy. As a result, we expect the bear market to continue to unravel and drag prices of cryptocurrencies and stocks much lower over time. Accordingly, we maintain our price targets at 15 000$ and 13 000$. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and two simple moving averages in a bearish constellation. The yellow arrow indicates the price retracement above the 20-day SMA, which often coincides with corrections and is bullish for the short term. Now, the 20-day SMA acts as a support level; meanwhile, the 50-day SMA acts as a resistance level. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Editors' picks
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
94
$1.5$ bn. moved, the FTX spillover effect, more trouble aheadOver the weekend, news came out that $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin was moved off the Coinbase exchange within less than 48 hours. In our opinion, this highlights high anxiety even among prominent market participants. Therefore, we voice a word of caution over the coming weeks. We believe more cryptocurrency exchanges will fall victim to improper money management, lack of due diligence, and the FTX spillover effect. With that being said, the names of the fifty biggest creditors to FTX remain unknown to the public, leaving room only for speculation as to who might belong to the list of affected parties. With over $3 billion of debt, we expect the announcement of these names to cause more havoc in the market. In addition to that, we expect more economic tightening and regulation to come in the foreseeable future, ultimately dragging the price of Bitcoin lower. Accordingly, we remain bearish on the asset and maintain our price targets at 15 000$ and 13 000$. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD. The red arrow hints at a substantial decline in volume over the past four weeks. In order to confirm our bearish thesis, we would like to see a pick-up in volume accompanied by a declining price. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bearish. DM+ and DM- are also bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
49
"HODL-ers" at all time highs but who will drag the price higher?Yesterday, we touched on the subject of people leveraging their positions in an attempt to catch Bitcoin’s bottom. We also expressed concerns about the current bounce in the cryptocurrency market being the usual “FOMO” (fear of missing out) among investors. Additionally, we noted that the tighter economy is here to stay, likely foreshadowing more trouble ahead. Today, we would like to take a look at the subject of “HODL-ers” (hold on your dear life; people who hold their cryptocurrencies and do not sell, regardless of circumstances). Over the past year, media news outlets have continued to inform the public about the number of “HODL-ers” growing month after month. To concisely illustrate our point, below are some of the headlines from articles on various cryptocurrency-related websites (from six different sources). 16th November 2022 - “Long term Bitcoin HODLers reaches all-time high” 26th August 2022 - “Research: Diamond hands are at an all-time high” 18th July 2022 - “Bitcoin hodling activity resembles previous market bottoms: Glassnode” 16th May 2022 - “Number of addresses with over 1 Bitcoin hits new all-time high despite volatility” 14th March 2022 - “Number of Bitcoin holders hits an all-time high record at almost 40 million addresses” 22nd February 2022 - “Number of Bitcoin “Hodlers” reaches new all-time high despite crypto market bloodbath” 17th January 2022 - “On-Chain Data Shows Number of ETH Holders At All-Time High” 28th December 2021 - “Veteran Bitcoin hodlers are still selling record low amounts of BTC despite 70% gains in 2021” 18th November 2021 - “Bitcoin holders who bought at $20K refuse to sell BTC at all-time highs - Latest data” Based on available data, the number of people holding their cryptocurrencies has continued to grow despite crashing prices. That ultimately brings us to a question - if all these people continue to buy dips in speculation of a primary trend reversal, then who will drag the price higher? In our opinion, within the market reliant so much on the next buyer, it is not a positive development. Therefore, we stay very cautious and continue to stick with our bearish assessment of the market. Accordingly, our price targets stay at 15 000$ and 13 000$. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and simple support/resistance levels. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
31
FTX's hacker, heist, and no optimismOver the past two weeks, Ethereum enjoyed much attention, with media coverage about FTX’s hacker dumping his holdings on the market. Some of the recent activities in “FTX accounts drainers” - based on information from Etherscan. FTX accounts drainer 1 - 0x59ABf3837Fa962d6853b4Cc0a19513AA031fd32b 19th November 2022 - Ethereum balance = 250 735 ($305 million) 21st November 2022 - Ethereum balance = 5 735 ($6.36 million) FTX accounts drainer 2 - 0xc40aBF7E6499694ea6F965Df96e39E51305E019a 12th November 2022 - Ethereum balance = 1 287 ($1.6 million) 15th November 2022 - Ethereum balance = 0 ($0) FTX accounts drainer 3 - 0x585ed783C9246553E8bC9f9046C80f54AfEE7765 12th November 2022 - Ethereum balance = 13 205 ($16.5 million) 15th November 2022 - Ethereum balance = 1.47 ($1844) Ethereum dropped more than 11% from Sunday to Monday before erasing some losses. A decline stopped slightly above the support level at 1071.50$, and since then, the price action has remained choppy. Apart from Bitcoin, ETHUSD did not constitute a new low for the year. Though it is nothing surprising if we consider how much better (seemingly) it has performed. That, however, does not change our view. We still hold a bearish stance and believe the bottom is not set in. As we noted over the summer (and several times thereafter), the attractive price for shorting is between 1 500$ and 1 600$ (or higher); however, from the current level taking a short position represents much more risk. With that let out there, we maintain our price targets at 1 000$ and 900$. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI is neutral. Stochastic points to the upside but stays in the bearish zone. MACD is flattening. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of ETHUSD and simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis - weekly time frame MACD is neutral. Stochastic is bearish. RSI is slightly bearish/neutral. DM+ and DM- are stay bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
9
A new low, potential Genesis bankruptcy, and a new price targetYesterday, Bitcoin made a new yearly low at 15 479$. Furthermore, based on information published by various news outlets, Genesis Global Trading Inc. warned its investors about potential bankruptcy proceedings. As a result, this exchange joins our list of deeply troubled cryptocurrency institutions. Some of the troubled financial institutions in 2022 include: - Genesis - Celsius Network - FTX - Three Arrows Capital - Voyager - CoinFlex - Sky-Bridge Capital - Zipmex We believe this list will continue to grow in names as the FTX fallout has not been resolved yet. Accordingly, we wait for the names of the biggest creditors to be released, which could spark more fear and selling in the market. At the same time, we pay close attention to developments with Genesis exchange. If it declares bankruptcy, then matters will worsen substantially. The same applies to the attempts of the U.S. government to regulate the cryptocurrency world more tightly. Therefore, we remain bearish and maintain our price targets of 15 000$ and 13 000$. Illustration 1.01 The image above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and two simple moving averages. The yellow arrow indicates the recent bearish crossover between the two moving averages. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, Stochastic, MACD, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, Stochastic, MACD, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
29
Bitcoin - BTCUSD stays down ≈75% from its ATHBitcoin continues to trade choppy near the 16 700$ price tag. On the daily chart, RSI, MACD, and Stochastic trend sideways, which is a sign of improvement compared to the preceding two weeks. However, we remain bearish as we do not expect fundamental factors to get better anytime soon. With the FED staying hawkish, we believe there is much more downside for the cryptocurrency market in the coming months. Indeed, we believe that the fallout with FTX has not been resolved yet, posing more obstacles for the market. In accordance with that, we stay committed to our price target of 15 000$. Momentarily, we will pay close attention to volume, which is currently very low. In order to confirm our bearish thesis, we would like to see a pick-up in volume accompanied by selling pressure. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD, two simple moving averages, and support/resistance levels. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic trend sideways. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 The image above shows a decline in selling pressure on the daily chart of BTCUSD. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bearish. DM+ and DM- are also bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
10
El Salvador's Bitcoin adoptionToday, we prepared for our audience a concise article about the adoption of Bitcoin in El Salvador. Some facts about El Salvador El Salvador is a South American country of 6.5 million people and a GDP of $28.73 billion. Interestingly, El Salvador is one of three Latin American countries using the U.S. dollar as their national currency. The country's population has a relatively high literacy rate of about 90%. Despite that, in 2017, Consejo Nacional de Inclusión y Educacíon Financiera (CNIEF) found that only one-third of adults in El Salvador owned a bank account at a financial institution. Population = 6.5 million The poverty rate ($5.5/per day) = 22.2% of the population (2019) GDP = $27.73 billion (2021) GDP per capita = $4 408.52 (2021) Debt-to-GDP = 82% (2021) Government budget value = -$1.417 billion (2021) Government spending = $5.647 billion (2021) Government revenues = $6.038 billion (2021) Illustration 1.01 - Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow points to the date of El Salvador's adoption of Bitcoin. Bitcoin adoption - Success or failure? In September 2021, El Salvador adopted Bitcoin as a legal tender, being the first country in the world to do so. That was quickly met with a wave of bullish calls for a new era of institutional adoption. However, in hindsight, this decision looks like an absolute failure, with the government wasting taxpayers' money to fulfill one man's dreams. The president of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, announced his first purchase of 200 Bitcoins on 6th September 2021, when the price of one coin traded at around 52 000$. The next day, he tweeted that his government bought another 200 Bitcoins at roughly the same price, taking the overall holdings of the country to 400 coins. Over the coming months, El Salvador continued to double down on a losing position, with more purchases in late November 2021, October 2021, December 2021, January 2022, May 2022, and June 2022. September 2021 - 700 Bitcoins near 52 000$ October 2021 - 420 Bitcoins near 58 000$ November 2021 - 100 Bitcoins near 54 000$ December 2021 - 171 Bitcoins near 48 000$ January 2022 - 410 Bitcoins near 36 500$ May 2022 - 500 Bitcoins near 30 000$ June 2022 - 80 Bitcoins near 19 000$ El Salvador has amassed 2 381 coins since September 2021. Based on Nayib Bukele's tweets, the country paid $105 million for its stash, now worth only $39.5 million, which amounts to more than a 60% loss. Nevertheless, this did not stop the president, who announced daily purchases of Bitcoins last week, starting on 18th November 2022. Illustration 1.02 - Nayib Bukele 2022 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD for 2022. White arrows highlight tweets of the president of El Salvador on the topic of Bitcoin. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
24
Money Affects HappinessConventionally, we used to hear the saying, "Money can't buy happiness.". Is it really true? Let's look at some facts about happiness, money, and life.  Easy to talk about happiness and specific amounts of it, but how do we measure happiness in real life? It isn’t something we perceptibly see in a computer game. In fact, it is more like a feeling and believe it or not, there are ways to measure it.  How To Measure Happiness? As we look at the behavioral aspect, when we feel happy our behaviors change. We smile more and feel much more energetic. Hence we might be much more patient and helpful to others. However, any external factors can affect our happiness, which simultaneously affects our behaviors such as sun, exercising, eating, etc. Other than our behaviors, there are some biological ways to assess and reveal people's happiness levels in laboratories, but these are way too scientific. Reports, on the other hand, are another helpful source of information. In Particular, we can consider self-reports of people about their emotions and the feedback from other people. For example, as a parent, brief information about their child's emotional state to another person is valuable feedback. Of course, this data is mostly based on a person's emotional well-being, but it is also helping researchers carry out certain types of studies. Attitudes Towards Money For most people, the relationship with money, happiness, and living standards compose complicated relationships. It isn't like something that turns off when they achieve a certain amount of wage per year. They want more. Therefore, they try to find ways to earn more, usually by advancing in their career, which results in economic growth on a societal basis.  On the other hand, things may lead in a different direction. More income means more flexibility on living expenses. However, with the pandemic, things started to change dimensions. The pandemic was actually the emergence of some crises. Some people lost their jobs or gave up what they love for the sake of themselves and their loved ones. Thus, the pandemic started a new pursuit to make money in challenging times. So happiness had to be put away from people in order to survive. For some people, money might be the indicator of success. In that case, if you are not earning much from your current job, you might think, "Am I not successful enough?" That creates a twisted sense of success and affects the lives of many. For some other people, however, only the job they are performing gives their lives a purpose that brings happiness simultaneously. As you can see, "money" can be determined in many ways depending on the person.    Killingworth's Study In this post, I will also talk about a study by Matthew Killingworth. This research was conducted to measure people's well-being by collecting data from them on a daily basis. Actually, it has an extremely interesting content-collecting process. At some point, he links people's happiness with their income, as I mentioned before.  According to a paper from 2010 by Daniel Kahneman and Angus Deaton, well-being stops increasing after achieving a $75,000 annual salary. In his study, Killingworth declares that the possibility of increasing well-being stops after some time. This is since money no longer means something. However, he suggests well-being continues to increase with income as it can also give some satisfaction even just to see the ability to make "more" money. Following on the study, Killingworth highlights that people earning more are happier. This derives from their high income and the possibility of doing things without doubt and worry. Who wouldn't be pleased by not caring about money while doing things they want to do? On the other side of the story, working excessively to earn more brings problems such as depression. People who link their self-worth with their income most definitely suffer from stress and, even more, depression. So, the key is trying to keep everything at proper and healthy levels. For example, the passion of earning more or dreaming about an alternative life that comes with more money. 
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by vf_investment
4
Bitcoin - The FTX's domino effectWith BlockFi added as another troubled company to our long list, we continue to be bearish on Bitcoin and the overall cryptocurrency market. We believe that FTX's domino effect is still underway, and more companies will start coming forward to announce damages incurred in this cryptocurrency exchange fiasco. As a result, the industry will see the rise of more regulation in parallel to the 2008 crisis and Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy. In our opinion, that will lead to the final capitulation in the market and drag the price of Bitcoin much lower from the current level. Over time, however, it might be positive as it will increase transparency and provide more safety for a consumer, potentially luring more institutional players and mass adoption. With that being said, we do not expect it to happen right away or anytime soon. We believe Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies still have a long way to go before reversing their primary trend. Accordingly, we stick to our price target for BTCUSD at 15 000$. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish crossover between 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA; now, these SMAs act as alternative resistance levels. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bearish. DM+ and DM- are also bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
18
Bitcoin - Quick updateOver the weekend, the price of Bitcoin slumped below 16 000$ before erasing some of its early losses. Currently, the price of one coin trades near 16 600$. So far, we have not changed our bearish view and remain committed to the price target of 15 000$. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and support/resistance levels. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bearish. DM+ and DM- are also bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
27
Bitcoin - Is FTX the Lehman Brothers of crypto?For weeks, we have warned investors about the unsustainable rally in the cryptocurrency market, and now, our price target of 17 500$ was finally hit. That comes to us as no surprise since we reiterated several times that no double bottom occurred and no primary trend reversal was on the horizon; already, in February 2022, we stated that no all-time high would happen this year. Instead, we made a compelling case for the bear market and have continued to do so while hitting one price target after another. With that being said, we continue to be bearish on Bitcoin and dismiss new calls about the market bottom. In fact, we want to remind our audience of articles we published over the summer about Celsius Network's insolvency and its contingency spreading over to other cryptocurrency institutions in the coming months. Now it seems FTX joined the list of troubling companies, with Binance announcing the buyout of its distressed assets. In our opinion, that is a particularly bearish development, further drawing a parallel between insolvencies in the banking sector in 2008 and now (but in the cryptocurrency sector). Unfortunately, though, we do not expect any improvement in the market with the FED pursuing tighter economic conditions and potential regulatory fallout (as so many cryptocurrency exchanges are going bust). Contrarily, we believe the bear market is far from over, and Bitcoin will mark new lows over time. Accordingly, we stick to our price target of 15 000$. *In the latter part of this article, we would like to introduce a part of Bitwise Asset Management's presentation to the SEC in March 2019. (about fake volume)* Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD, and yellow arrows indicate the latest technical developments. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic all show signs of faltering. DM+ and DM- is bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Bitwise Asset Management presentation to the SEC in March 2019 In March 2019, Bitwise Asset Management (which created the world's first crypto index fund) made a presentation to the SEC about fake volumes on major cryptocurrency exchanges. In its research, the company analyzed volume and trade orders across 81 exchanges listed on Coinmarketcap. Additionally, it argued that the data reported by the website were wrong (despite Coinmarketcap being widely referenced in media - The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, etc.). Bitwise Asset Management demonstrated the difference between real and suspicious exchanges (ones that were likely to engage in trade washing with the purpose of inflating trading volumes) by highlighting differences in the order book and showing discrepancies within the information available in the trading interface. For example, some exchanges showed buy and sell orders with roughly the same trade sizes, the absence of round numbers in the order book (despite the natural tendency of humans to pick rounded numbers), the lack of small transactions, perfect even distribution of buy and sell orders, and so on. However, researchers went beyond these technicalities and looked at these exchanges' footprints in the real world. Subsequently, by comparing publicly available data, they found a substantial difference between the real companies and suspicious ones (lacking media exposure, followers, number of employees, etc.). Furthermore, they analyzed trade histograms and applied several alternative data assessment methods. The 227-page presentation also touched slightly on the subject of Tether, market regulation, market surveillance tools, and market manipulation. In its findings, the company stated that at the time, only 10 out of 81 exchanges showed the presence of real volume, including Coinbase, Bitfinex, Kraken, Bitstamp, BitFlyer, Gemini, itBit, Bittrex. In addition to that, researchers concluded that the total volume was merely 4.5% of the reported volume (by exchanges) between 4th and 8th March 2019. As if it was not enough, the study stated that nearly 30% of spot bitcoin volume was on U.S.-domiciled exchanges, compared to just 1% of reported volume. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
66
Bitcoin - Do not get fooled by "double bottom" forecasts Bitcoin is up more than 5% after an overnight move. Despite that, we remain unshaken by the rising volatility and stick to a bearish outlook for the rest of 2022. At the moment, however, we will pay close attention to volume, price, and sloping resistance. If the price breaks above the sloping resistance, it will further bolster a bullish case for Bitcoin in the short term. In addition to that, we speculate that many people will try to forecast double bottom and buy here, dragging price higher. Although we do not expect relief to last and turn into recovery. Instead, we think a bounce will be very short-lived, and more downward pressure will follow. Additionally, we expect Bitcoin to mark new lows over time and reaffirm our bearish thesis. This view is supported by economic tightening on a global scale, rising volatility, and the market progressing into the second stage of the downtrend. Because of that, we remain committed to our price targets of 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. The recent decline in volume suggests temporary relief in selling pressure. Ideally, to further confirm our bearish thesis, we would like to see declining volume as the price rises toward the sloping resistance. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI is bullish. Stochastic points to the upside but stays in the bearish area; the same applies to MACD. DM+ and DM- are bearish, striving for the bullish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral/slightly bullish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
93
Bitcoin - Will the FED crush dreams and hopes today? Today, we await a much anticipated FED meeting, with central bankers expected to raise interest rates in the range between 75 bps to 100 bps. Over the past few weeks, we said that more rate hikes would put additional pressure on the U.S. economy and drag it into a deeper recession. As a result, we expect such a period to be accompanied by risk aversion, leading to a selloff in the general stock market and cryptocurrency sector. Although we do not rule out the initial bounce up in the price of Bitcoin after the FED decision (though we expect it to be short-lived if it occurs). Our reasoning is that many investors will be (again) on the lookout for the FED pivot. However, we do not think the FED will backtrack its monetary policy in 2022; quite contrarily, we believe the FED will pursue the path of tightening throughout 2023, further deteriorating economic conditions. The same grim story is told by volume hovering around monthly lows and by many technical indicators flashing warning signs across the board. Daily, weekly, and monthly time frames are all bearish, which is ideal for the continuation of the downtrend. Therefore, we have no reason to change our view on Bitcoin. Accordingly, we remain bearish, and our price targets stay at 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the setup with two alternative trades and the yellow arrow pointing to volume at weekly lows. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. To further confirm our bearish thesis, we would like to see Bitcoin fall below the Support 1. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
35
Bitcoin - The downtrend is confirmed by several developmentsRight after Jerome Powell's speech, the stock market dropped sharply, dragging cryptocurrencies with it. As a result, Bitcoin fell approximately 6%, dropping below 21 000 USD and subsequently below the immediate support. That is particularly bearish as this development constitutes a new low for BTCUSD, further confirming the downtrend. As if it was not enough, volume continues to grow while the price declines, suggesting a strengthening selling pressure. As for the fundamental factors, it is clear now that the FED's pivot is dead, and there is no reversal in the central bank's monetary policy. As we previously noted, this will inadvertently drag the global economy into a deeper recession, leading to even a higher risk aversion. Consequently, we expect this to pull Bitcoin below its 2022 lows. Concerning technical factors, these are flashing warning signs across the board. We expect a heavy selloff in the short-term future. Indeed, we would not be surprised to see Bitcoin break below 20 000 USD over the weekend. Accordingly, we stick to our price target of 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of Bitcoin and simple support/resistance levels. Yellow arrows indicate bearish breakouts. The green arrow indicates growing volume, which supports our bearish thesis; indeed, in our previous post, we stated that this would be an ideal picture to confirm our hypothesis. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows the monthly chart of BTCUSD. Again, extremely shallow volumes hint at brewing troubles for Bitcoin. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
37
Bitcoin - No longer bullish, top in for the rally During the last week, we gave market participants an ultimate warning about the impending reversal in the market. Soon after we argued the top of the bear market rally might be in, Bitcoin fell more than 15%. A change in our short-term view is mainly influenced by technical factors, which point to the return of intense selling pressure. Indeed, we believe the current selloff will soon escalate into panic mode in the cryptocurrency sector. As a result, we expect highly elevated volatility and Bitcoin to drop to a new low. Our medium-term and long-term views remain unchanged as we expect bearish fundamental factors to stay persistent throughout 2022 and 2023. Additionally, we believe that the recession will bring risk-off sentiment, wreaking chaos in the stock market as well as the cryptocurrency market. Because of these reasons, and the ones described in our previous ideas, we stick to our price targets at 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows two bearish breakouts below prior support levels. Additionally, a build-up in volume accompanying a price drop is indicated on the bottom; this development is the ideal picture we wanted to see in order to confirm our bearish thesis. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI is very bearish. MACD and Stochastic are bearish. DM+ and DM- performed bearish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is very bearish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows another bearish breakout below the sloping support, further bolstering the bearish case for BTCUSD. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.03 Above is the setup we introduced recently. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
38
Bitcoin - Professional selling to retail investors?Prior to the FED meeting, we speculated that the rally could falter with another rate hike. However, after the 2.04% decline following the FED decision, Bitcoin erased its early losses and made a new high at 21 473$. That is a bullish development, although we still remain bearish for the medium and the long term. Indeed, after a brief period of bullishness, we are slowly but surely turning bearish on BTC in the short term as well. Accordingly, we stay committed to our price targets of 17 500$ and 15 000$. Despite that, we can not ignore the prospect of rally continuation. Therefore, we will pay close attention to the price action and volume. Ideally, we would like to see a pick-up in volume and subsequent selling pressure to confirm our bearish bias. Contrarily, to support the opposite bullish view, we would like to see the price attempt to test resistance at 22 781$. We would like to point out different relationships between the price and volume across various exchanges displayed in the illustrations below. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the relationship between the price and volume on the exchange FTX. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the relationship between the price and volume on the exchange Binance. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 shows the relationship between the price and volume on the exchange Kraken. Illustration 1.04 Illustration 1.04 shows the relationship between the price and volume on the exchange Bitstamp. Illustration 1.05 Illustration 1.05 shows the relationship between the price and volume in the futures market. Technical analysis - daily time frame MACD flattens. RSI trends sideways, and Stochastic performed a bearish crossover. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish but shows signs of exhaustion. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic point to the upside, although they still remain within bearish zones. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
19
Bitcoin - Risk appettite is not picking up muchTwo days ago, Bitcoin broke above the sloping resistance, which is bullish in the short term. However, then it quickly erased gains, and the breakout became invalidated. So far, despite the ongoing rally in the stock market, the price action in Bitcoin has remained muted. We believe that reflects a lack of risk appetite among market participants. Indeed, at the current stock market value, we would expect BTCUSD to trade much higher from the current level; yet, it merely continues the choppy price action near the 19 300 USD price tag. That tells us something is not exactly right. Therefore, we are very cautious. As for the price targets, they remain unchanged at 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD due to the persistence of macroeconomic factors. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and simple support/resistance levels. The yellow arrow points to the bullish breakout above the sloping resistance; volume is declining throughout the rise, which is not particularly bullish. Technical analysis - daily time frame Stochastic is bullish. MACD is rising but still below the 0 points; if it breaks above, it will be a bullish sign. RSI is neutral. DM+ and DM- are causing whipsaws, with the ADX hinting at the neutral trend. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral. Illustration 1.02 Simple moving averages on the daily chart of BTCUSD reflect the neutral nature of the prevailing short-term trend that is currently in place. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI and Stochastic are trending sideways in the lower bound of the bearish zone. MACD points to the upside but stays in the bearish zone as well. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
81