Bitcoin - Does turbulence lie ahead? In the past few weeks, we reiterated our lack of belief in the trend reversal in Bitcoin. We said the price bounce would be temporary and that it was too premature to call the bottom. Additionally, we stuck to a short-term bullish call and medium/long-term bearish call. Furthermore, we also hinted at signs of weakness that led to the inability of BTCUSD to continue higher.
Among these developments, we also hinted at structural problems in the cryptocurrency market. These also remain today with the latest addition of Coinbase to troubled companies in the sector (due to alleged investigation). Threats from higher interest rates, economic tightening, and global recession also continue to persist.
With these new developments in the market, we turned bearish on Bitcoin in the short term. That is mainly due to Bitcoin retracing below 21 868 USD. We said that such development would be bearish in the setup we introduced in our latest idea. Accordingly, we stick to what we said. However, if the immediate resistance/support is broken to the upside, it will cause us to turn bullish again. Because of that, tight stop-losses should accompany trade entries.
*The FED meeting is scheduled for Wednesday. We will be very cautious as the FED is expected to raise interest rates and further worsen economic conditions.*
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. It also shows the downward sloping channel. The upper bound connects two peaks and acts as the resistance; meanwhile, the lower bound is parallel to the upper bound and acts as the support.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and Stochastic turned bearish. DM+ and DM- performed bearish crossover. The MACD is neutral. The ADX contains a relatively low value which hints at a weak trend. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
Recently, we hinted at the presence of low volume accompanying the breakout above 21 868 USD price tag. We noted that this was a sign of weakness, and if the volume stayed insufficient, then the market was due to reverse abruptly.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Coins
Weekly Analysis BTC via Ichimoku by TheSocialCryptoClubGood weekend,
As usual, here is our analysis of the week looking at a glance at the daily chart of BINANCE:BTCUSDT using the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator with traditional settings. We used in support other indicators that we developed and released Open Source, you can find them at the end of the analysis.
Trend:
Kumo has been red for 91 days and is stable (now at about 21%). The situation is always uncertain but mainly sideways on the medium to long term. Senkou Span B and Kijun are flat, indicating a sideways moment in the downtrend. The price continues to be above the Kijun, but it is still below the Kumo and below the important level of 22500.00.
The Kijun Trend indicator continues to indicate looking for long positions, even though the Kijun is flat. Price continues to be very close to the Kijun and may make contact with the Kumo shortly.
Heikin-Ashi:
For the week the Heikin-Ashi indicates a change in trend for the past week that allowed the Kijun to break through and is now on the Tenkan.
Supports and resistances:
- 25000.00 from Fibonacci
- 22400.00-22600.00 Chikou cusp level or flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan
- 20200.00 Chikou cusp level or flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan
- 20000.00 psychological threshold
- 19100.00-18900.00 Chikou cusp level or flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan
- 12700.00 from the waves of Hosoda
- 11000.00-13000.00 Chikou cusp level or flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan
For the various static price structures you can refer to the chart where the structures identified by the flat moments of Tenkan, Kijun, Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B on different timeframes are plotted, also Chikou price for the daily time frame.
Also, recall that the various Ichimoku lines serve as dynamic price structures: the Tenkan Sen (short term), the Kijun Sen (medium term) as well as the Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B (long term).
Fibonacci:
The Fibonacci levels on the Daily still show us positive long-term sentiment and places the 0 upside on 75000.00. Price is still below the 1 level, should it stay it will update accordingly.
Conclusion:
BTC shows a bullish trend on the short term, but the situation is rather uncertain. There are important levels to overcome such as 22400.00-22600.00 and the Kumo itself.
The well known exponential moving averages often used in the Crypto market on the 200, 50 and 20 periods are aligned in downtrend but still the price is exceeding the 200.
The Kijun trend is indicative of looking for long positions, but the Hosoda waves continue to indicate downtrend targets even though the V and NT targets are rising from last week:
- V/NT: 12600.00
- N: 7750.00
- E: 2845.00
It is important to assess the close of the week and during the week on the following price structures:
- Bullish/Lateral: 22400.00-22600.00
- Bearish: 20000.00-20700.00
Altcoin Cycle:
For Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Cycle we can consider the weekly variation:
- Total cryptocurrency market capital: Increased.
- BTC Dominance: Decreased.
- Price of BTC: Decreased.
- Alt cycle expectation: Stable.
Thanks for your attention, happy to support the TradingView community.
Indicators used:
Analysis Tool
Kijun Trend Indicator
Ichimoku Support and Resistance
Chikou Support and Resistance
Coinbase - More downside is likelyThe downtrend in cryptocurrencies supports a bearish view on Coinbase, which is currently down more than 80% since it started to float on the public stock market just a few months ago. In our opinion, the company will continue to lose its value in the short-term and medium-term. Indeed, we think the recent fallout with the Luna stablecoin token and Celsius network will have a contagious effect that will eventually catch up with other industry giants and possibly also Coinbase. Due to that, we would like to set the price target for Coinbase at 50 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows Coinbase stock trading within the wide range; interesting is that this trading range is structurally similar to the range observable in the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are slightly bullish. DM+ and DM- are neutral. Overall, the daily time frame is slightly bullish/neutral.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 portrays similarities between the price action of BTCUSD and Coinbase.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI and Stochastic are bearish. MACD is neutral . DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Bitcoin - The trend turns neutralOver the past month, Bitcoin lost much of its bearish momentum; indeed, it became stuck within the wide range, oscillating from one side to another. Because of the trend turning neutral we were forced to abandon our price targets for the 2nd time. Currently, we stay out of the market and decide to observe it for a while before running to new conclusions. However, we have to note that fundamental bearish factors have not changed. The prospect of higher interest rates, economic tightening, and global crisis continue to threaten the cryptocurrency market. Because of that, we still think there is a high likelihood for BTCUSD to make a new low in 2022. Although, despite that, we think the general stock market and cryptocurrency sector might be positioning themselves for the significant bear market rally. At the moment, the upside potential for BTCUSD is near 24 000 USD, which coincides with the 50-day SMA. Meanwhile, the downside potential for BTCUSD in 2022 is near its recent lows.
Illustration 1.01
Two moving averages, 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA, still reflect the bearish trend. However, the 20-day SMA started to move sideways recently, hinting at loss of momentum and trend neutrality.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
Stochastic is neutral. MACD and RSI are bullish. DM+ and DM- are neutral. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral.
Illustration 1.02
Two moving averages, 20-week SMA and 50-week SMA, continue to suggest the presence of the bearish trend. However, the daily time frame hints at the trend turning neutral (in short-term/medium-term). Additionally, the cool-off in selling pressure is indicated by low volume.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+ and DM- remain bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame stays bearish; however, it is less bearish than a week ago.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Ethereum - Bullish calls are falseWe maintain a bearish outlook on Ethereum. Accordingly, we also maintain our price targets of 900 USD and 800 USD. We have no reason to change our bias due to persistence of bearish fundamental and technical factors, which we detailed in our previous posts on ETHUSD.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the weekly chart of ETHUSD. Two moving averages, 20-week SMA and 50-week SMA, continue to confirm the medium-term/long-term bearish trend.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
The picture above shows simple support and resistance levels for ETHUSD.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
The weekly time frame coincides with the daily time frame. RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Bitcoin - Do not get fooled by bullish callsPersistence of bearish fundamental factors continues to support our bearish view on the cryptocurrency market. We expect more rate hikes (by the FED) and economic tightening to bolster the selloff in the general stock market. Subsequently, we expect that to drag the price of Bitcoin to new lows. The same picture is painted by technical factors, which point to more downside for Bitcoin. Accordingly, we maintain our price targets of 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The chart depicts Bitcoin trading at 2018 price level. The upper yellow dashed line connects peaks; the lower yellow dashed line is parallel to the upper line. Corrections of the downtrend are indicated by yellow arrows; it is observable that prior pauses in the selling pressure were followed by sideways moving price action. Subsequently, that was followed by a new low in the price of Bitcoin. At the moment, we observe the same development on the daily chart.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, Stochastic, DM+, DM- are all bearish. The MACD flattens. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
The picture above shows simple support and resistance levels for BTCUSD.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, Stochastic, MACD, DM+, DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame remains bearish.
Illustration 1.03
The chart above shows the price of BTCUSD and volume. It can be seen that volume is at monthly lows over the past ten years. Although, in the past three months, as selloff progressed, volume picked up a little bit.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Bitcoin - Still no sight of the uptrend Since the last Friday, Bitcoin rose about 600 USD to approximately 20 200 USD, where it currently trades. Nevertheless, we maintain a grim view of Bitcoin, mainly due to the persistence of bearish fundamental and technical factors. Accordingly, we stick to our price targets at 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD. Although, we would like to acknowledge that Bitcoin might continue to be choppy for a little longer before regaining momentum to the downside.
Illustration 1.01
The daily chart of BTCUSD shows retracements toward 20-day SMA. These retracements act as corrections of the downtrend. Therefore, we will pay close attention to the ability of the price to stay above/below the 20-day SMA (above is bullish, below is bearish). If the price holds above the SMA for an extended period, that may imply another price increase before the breakdown.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI exited the oversold zone, which is slightly bullish. Stochastic is neutral. MACD is slightly bullish; however, it remains in the bearish area. DM+ and DM- remain bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral.
Illustration 1.02
The chart shows simple support and resistance levels for BTCUSD.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Bitcoin - The inability to hold gains hints at fragile marketOvernight, we saw a short-lived bounce in the price of Bitcoin to 20 895.08 USD. Within a few hours, BTCUSD gave up most of its early gains and plunged below 19 500 USD, where it currently trades. We continue to be bearish on BTCUSD. Accordingly, we maintain our price targets at 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The picture shows an overnight correction of the downtrend, represented by natural price retracement toward the 20-day SMA.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, Stochastic, MACD, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
Since 26th June 2022, the volume is again on the rise; that is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame has not changed and remains bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Bitcoin - No trend reversal in sight, BTC eyes 15 000 USDYesterday, we changed our short-term bias back to bearish from neutral/slightly bullish. Additionally, we set new price targets at 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD, representing approximately an 11% and 24% decline from the current price level. Our bearish medium-term and long-term view is based mainly on fundamental factors like higher interest rates and economic tightening. However, technical aspects also support our thesis, especially across weekly and monthly time frames. Because of that, we continue to maintain our price targets and bearish bias. Accordingly, we expect BTCUSD to make new lows over time.
Illustration 1.01
BTCUSD trades within the descending channel. Breakouts below the lower bound were followed by a new low and sideways moving price action. There are similarities between the previous price action and the current price action.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI loses momentum. Stochastic starts to flatten. MACD points to the upside; however, it remains in the bearish territory. DM+ and DM- remain bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral (and less bullish than in previous days).
Illustration 1.02
Interestingly enough, volume started to pick up in the past four days; that hints at an increase in the selling pressure.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame stays bearish.
Illustration 1.03
The failure of BTCUSD to retrace fully toward the 20-day SMA suggests that the downtrend correction is losing momentum.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Bitcoin - BTCUSD due to revisit lows once the rally endsBitcoin's bear market rally shows the first signs of weakness and exhaustion. We still pay close attention to 20-day and 50-day SMAs; in the short-term, BTCUSD may attempt to retrace toward these levels (before breaking down and revisiting lows). Accordingly, we remain neutral/slightly bullish in the short-term. However, in the long-term, we remain bearish. Therefore, we will look for clues hinting at the rally's end.
Fundamental factors
Bearish fundamental factors continue to persist. The prospect of another rate hike by the FED in July 2022 diminishes the chances of Bitcoin's rally continuation. In fact, it threatens global markets and risk assets like cryptocurrencies. The same applies to the economic tightening, which will put substantial pressure on the economy and drag it lower. In addition to that, the upcoming regulation of cryptocurrencies will tighten the market conditions even further. We view mentioned factors as very damaging to the price of Bitcoin.
Illustration 1.01
Volume has declined over the past few days. That is positive for BTCUSD as it hints at the cooling off within the selling pressure. In the short-term, the price will likely attempt to retrace toward its 20-day and 50-day SMAs, representing a correction of the downtrend.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and Stochastic are bullish. MACD points to the upside. DM+ and DM- are flatenning. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral/slightly bullish.
Illustration 1.02
The total cryptocurrency market-cap remains below 1 trillion USD in valuation.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI is in oversold territory. MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame stays bearish.
Illustration 1.03
The picture shows simple support and resistance levels for BTCUSD.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Bitcoin - Not bullish yetAfter hitting a low near 17 500 USD and reversing back above 21 000 USD, Bitcoin has been trading mostly sideways. So far, it has failed to move above the 22 000 USD price tag, which hints at a loss of momentum within the bear market rally. Despite that, we remain neutral and abstain from setting a price target for BTCUSD. However, we are growing inclined toward the notion that Bitcoin has not formed a bottom yet. Therefore, we will monitor its price action closely and look for more clues as to the resumption of the selling pressure.
Fundamental factors
We foresee bearish fundamental factors like higher interest rates and less money printing as damaging for the U.S. economy and cryptocurrencies. As a result, we expect these issues to weigh on the price of Bitcoin and drag it lower.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows simple support and resistance levels for BTCUSD.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and Stochastic are bullish. MACD points to the upside as it remains in the bearish zone. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral/slightly bullish.
Illustration 1.02
The idea above shows the potential setup for BTCUSD.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame stays bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Bitcoin - BTCUSD eyes 17 500 USDThe FED raised interest rates by 75bps yesterday. Despite that, the stock market rose by 3%, providing a temporary lifeline for cryptocurrencies. We view economic tightening and higher interest rates as negative for the U.S. economy and Bitcoin. That is due to the high correlation between these pairs exhibit. Thus, our price targets are 20 000 USD and 17 500 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The picture shows the rapid fall in BTC market dominance.
The Celsius Network, run by Alex Mashinsky, paused withdrawals, swaps, and transfers on its platform a few days ago. Unfortunately, that is a substantial blow to over 1.7 million platform users, leaving their 151 534 BTC locked away. The company's statement says:
“Due to extreme market conditions, today we are announcing that Celsius is pausing all withdrawals, Swap, and transfers between accounts. We are taking this action today to put Celsius in a better position to honor, over time, its withdrawal obligations.”
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is extremely bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI shows oversold extreme. MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is extremely bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Bitcoin - The stock market provides a temporary lifeline for BTCOur latest post hinted at similarities between the structures of Bitcoin and Ethereum. We warned that Bitcoin was likely to follow the Ethereum's breakout below the support, which occurred a few hours later, and Bitcoin made a low at 28 003 USD. Then Bitcoin reversed back into the neutral zone and continued to climb higher over the weekend. Currently, BTCUSD trades around 30 600 USD. Despite that, we remain bearish on BTCUSD, and our price target stays at 25 000 USD. However, at the moment, we will pay close attention to the 31 411.18 USD support level. If the breakout above this level occurs, then BTCUSD is likely to continue higher - especially if the stock market continues its own “bear market rally.”; in our opinion, that would provide a further lifeline for cryptocurrencies in the short term, and as a result, BTCUSD could rise as high as 36 000 USD before resuming a downfall.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the recent breakout to the downside from the neutral zone.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and Stochastic are bullish. MACD also points to the upside. DM+ and DM- remain bearish. The ADX started to decline, which is reflected in the choppy price action of BTC. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral/slightly bullish.
Illustration 1.02
We will also pay close attention to the volume. We will monitor it to see if it will be sufficient to sustain a rally in a case of a bullish breakout. Insufficient volume accompanying the bullish breakout would suggest a bull trap.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish too. The ADX increases, which points to a strengthening trend. Overall, the weekly time frame remains bearish. The same also applies to the monthly time frame.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Bitcoin - Strong warning sign in BTCUSD!Over the past two weeks, we have continued to warn investors about the false rally, which seems to have started losing momentum. Yesterday, we warned that the correction in ETHUSD was nearing its end; then, a few hours later, ETHUSD fell approximately 10%. At the moment, we notice a similar pattern playing out in Bitcoin. Therefore, we would like to voice caution and awareness that Bitcoin is likely to follow suit in Ethereum's footsteps. We expect an eventual breakdown in the price of BTCUSD and new lows to be formed below 25 000 USD. As a result, our price target stays at 25 000 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and simple moving averages. We hinted at a similar retracement in ETHUSD yesterday before the price drop.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows the mentioned retracement in ETHUSD. Retracements in BTC and ETH show a strong resemblance.
Illustration 1.03
The picture above shows the drop in ETHUSD.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and Stochastic turned bearish. MACD is neutral. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.04
Volume drops like in the case of ETH.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. The ADX increases. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Bitcoin - The bottom fishing turns out to be painful for retailYesterday, we warned that the (irrational) bullish exuberance among retail investors foreshadows more pain for the price of Bitcoin. Shortly after that, Bitcoin invalidated its bullish breakout for the third time and started to fall. Finally, after erasing more than 7%, Bitcoin halted its decline at 29 309.84 USD. Since then, BTCUSD has been mainly trading sideways. We continue to be bearish on Bitcoin, and we maintain our price target of 25 000 USD. Our view is supported by bearish fundamental factors like higher interest rates in the U.S. and economic tightening, which will put more pressure on the U.S. economy and cryptocurencies. As a result, we expect the downtrend to unravel in the coming months and Bitcoin to form a new low.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the failure of the bullish breakout (invalidation) and subsequent drop in the price of BTCUSD. We believe that fishing for the bottom will continue to punish dip buyers.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish for BTCUSD.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. Overall, the daily time frame is very bearish for BTCUSD.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Bitcoin - It is game over for BTCUSDBitcoin had struggled around the 30 000 USD price tag over the past two weeks when low volumes proved insufficient to propel Bitcoin higher. After several false breakouts above the short-term resistance, Bitcoin always erased its profits immediately. Currently, BTCUSD trades slightly below 30 000 USD. We continue to be bearish on it as we expect economic conditions to worsen with the upcoming FOMC meeting next week. Therefore, our price target stays at 25 000 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The picture shows BTC's market dominance. It can be observed that BTC's market dominance was around the lowest levels at previous cryptocurrency market tops. Since the start of 2022, Bitcoin has started to regain its market dominance, which aligns with our bearish thesis.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is very bearish.
Illustration 1.02
As the FED meeting approaches next week, the VIX started to manifest signs of awakening. We believe the FED will worsen economic conditions by hiking interest rates. As a result, we expect risk-aversion to return into the market, culminating in a selloff of risk assets like Bitcoin.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is very bearish.
Illustration 1.03
At the moment, Bitcoin remains stuck in the neutral zone. However, we expect an eventual breakout to the downside.
Illustration 1.04
Illustration 1.04 hints at a substantial difference in volume sizes between the BTC bull market and the BTC bear market.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
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Bitcoin - BTC is getting stuck in the rectangle patternOver the past week, Bitcoin mainly traded between 28 600 USD and 31 411 USD, resulting in the creation of the rectangle pattern. That suggests that the trend is turning neutral in the short-term. At the same time, the daily time frame shows bullish technical developments, implying more upside for Bitcoin in the short term. We will pay close attention to the upper bound of the rectangle as the breakout above it could potentially mark the beginning of another bounce towards the 36 000 USD price tag (especially if the stock market recovers some losses). However, we expect the bearish trend of a higher degree to stay intact. Therefore, we have no reason to change our bearish outlook on BTCUSD; we still expect an eventual breakdown in the price of Bitcoin and new lows to be formed below 25 000 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the current setup on BTCUSD. The yellow rectangle indicates the neutral zone; the rectangle's lower and upper bounds act as support/resistance levels. Breakout to the upside would be bullish, while breakout to the downside would be bearish.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and Stochastic are bullish, implying the possibility of continuation of price rise. MACD also points to the upside, which is bullish; however, it still remains in the bearish territory. DM+ and DM- are bearish. ADX decreases which suggests that the bearish trend started to lose momentum. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral/slightly bullish.
Illustration 1.02
The picture above shows BTCUSD on the daily chart. White horizontal lines indicate particular support levels.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, Stochastic, MACD, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. ADX increases. Overall, the weekly time frame remains bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
LUNA - THE TRAGIC CRASH OF A CRYPTOCURRENCYAt support Luna had to already react, make retests and hold the support levels whether in sideways direction or V shape recovery.
There are no signs of this. This is the Cryptocurrency's END.
Bitcoin - The stock market will drag BTCUSD lowerYesterday, the general stock market erased most of its “bear rally” gains. As a result, Bitcoin also erased some of its recent profits; however, not as much as the stock market. We expect Bitcoin to catch up with the stock market and manifest more selling pressure in the short term. Accordingly, we remain bearish and expect BTCUSD to form a new low below 25 000 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The Nasdaq 100 index to which Bitcoin is highly correlated broke its downward sloping channel, which is very bearish. Indeed, in our opinion, it forecasts an acceleration in the selling pressure in the incoming days. We expect the stock market to drag BTCUSD lower with it.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI started to flatten; we expect it to turn bearish again. The same applies to the MACD. Stochastic remains bearish; DM+ and DM- also remain bearish. The ADX shows extreme strength of the downtrend. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. The ADX increases, which suggests that the bearish trend of a higher degree is not losing momentum yet. Overall, the weekly time frame remains very bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Bitcoin - The last lift up before the fall?Over the weekend, Bitcoin moved mostly between 28 500 USD and 31 000 USD. So far it has failed to make a new high above 31 411.48 USD; however, there is still some room for more upside before the fall we continue to forecast. Accordingly, we still remain bearish on Bitcoin as we expect it to make a new low below 25 000 USD. At the moment, we will pay close attention to the U.S. market indices and their ability to move higher, which we expect to lift up the price of Bitcoin in the process. In our opinion, that would be the last lift-up for BTC before another breakdown. However, that does not change our opinion; we still think that the current rally is a "dead cat bounce"
Illustration 1.01
Bitcoin fully retraced to its 10-day simple moving average (white line) and then started to fall.
(20-day SMA - blue line, 50-day SMA - red line)
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI left the oversold area; we will pay close attention to it. MACD shows signs of flattening. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- show the presence of the bearish trend. ADX contains a high value suggesting peaking conditions or extreme strength. Overall, the daily time frame is substantially less bearish than a week ago.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. ADX increases. Overall, the weekly time frame remains bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.