Colombia
South America BULLISHSouth America is on a roll, very bullish.
custom index: ARGT EWZ EWW GXG ICOL ECH EPU
BRAZILS STRETCHED RISK PREMIUM MAKES FOR "REAL" LONG OPPORTUNITYBRAZILS RISK PREMUM IS STRETCHED
See "Summary Statistics" in doc below
www.bcb.gov.br
BRL's risk premium (currently highest across EM peers) looks stretched, given a continued pick- up in growth and reducing near-term political risk. COP's recent rally was likely driven mainly by a reversal of heavy short positioning, without a material shift in the country's economic and political outlook. Recent data releases showed that 2017 exhibited the slowest annual growth since the 2009 crisis (1.8%Y) and growth should remain sluggish in 2018, at 2.3%Y. Uncertainty about the upcoming elections poses an additional challenge for the investment outlook, given that implementing structural reforms could be key to helping to correct the fiscal deficit.
The risk to this trade is that Colombia's economic data surprise to the upside, leading to further appreciation in the currency.
GBPAUD SAR analysis in the Long-TermGood Morning Traders!
Weekly downtrend in GBPAUD looks strong for go SHORT in long-term if break out occurs in the yellow sopport level. But expected rebounce in the red resistance level can make us to go LONG for awhile for few pips in short-term and may it break out still blue resistance level. Action Price will show us the way to take.
Pd: feedback is always welcome ;)
GXG Near-Term Bearish in Bullish Long-Term ContextDeadly bearish gravestone doji on Friday, which also rejected the neckline to a potentially large and bullish inverse H&S pattern. Either way I stay cyclically bullish given my work on the weekly and monthly charts, as well as developments in EM in general. Short-term however, this one sees bearish follow-up on Friday's candle and could pull back towards $9 worst case $8.50/.30 for great entry points.
USDCOP COLOMBIAN PESO ON THE ZONETHE COLOMBIAN PESO HAS BEEN IN THE 2600S ZONE 3 TIMES IN THE LAST 12 YEARS, AND IT HAS NEVER CLOSED ABOVE 2700. WE NEED TO SEE A BOUNCE IN THE PRICE OF OIL, OR AT LEAST SEE IT HANDLE THE 57-60 LEVEL AND EXPECT THE PESO GO TOWARDS ZONES OF 2200 FOR NOW. MAYBE THE POLICY MAKER OF THE COLOMBIA FINDS OUT WHAT IS OBVIUS AND LET THE PESO GET STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLAR. THE TECHNICALS SHOW THAT IT IS CLEARLY OVERBOUGHT, BUT THE PAIR DEPENDS A LOT OF THE CIRCUMSTANCES OF THE COUNTRY AND THE ACTUAL GOVERNMENT IS REALLY KICKING DOLLARS OF THE COUNTRY AND THAT MAKES HARD THAT THE PESO DEVALUATES A LITTLE.
EVEN THOUGH IS AN INTERESTING THING THAT THE PESO HAS NEVER BEEN ABOVE 2650 LEVEL ALMOS IN THIS MILLENIUM.
