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Gold Futures Analysis: Trade Plan COMEX:GC1! Gold remains in a strong uptrend on the higher time frames, having recently broken above the $3000 level. This move sets the stage for further upside potential. The chart below highlights a Megaphone chart pattern, signaling volatility and broad price swings. On the 4-hour chart, a pennant pattern is emerging within the uptrend, marked by a downtrend line from the recent highs. Additionally, an inverse head and shoulders pattern has formed, with a decisive breakout higher towards the 2025 CVAH. This level coincides with a high-volume node (HVN) and the edge of the value area distribution for 2025, suggesting it’s a key point of interest. Some consolidation is expected here before we either continue higher or see a rejection that could pull price back toward the uptrend line. Scenario 1: Continuation Higher, Capped by 3400 Level In this scenario, we anticipate further consolidation within the pennant on the 4-hour timeframe. After a brief pause, gold could continue higher, testing the 3400 resistance level. If momentum remains strong, we expect to see price consolidate within the pennant pattern to build energy for the next leg higher. Scenario 2: Rejection at CVAH In this scenario, gold struggles to sustain the move higher after breaking out from the inverse head and shoulders pattern. A failure to maintain the rally above the CVAH could lead to a rejection, followed by a retracement within the pennant structure. This would likely set up further consolidation towards the 3200 level before the next move up, possibly testing the uptrend line for support. Our thoughts: Gold is currently navigating an important juncture, with key levels at 2025 CVAH, 3400 and 3200 in focus. The near-term direction will depend on how price behaves within the pennant, as well as how it reacts to potential resistance or support levels. Traders should stay alert for volatility, as the consolidation phase could resolve in either a continuation of the uptrend or a pullback towards the trendline. Flight to safety, rising yields and geopolitical tensions will play a key role in shaping sentiment and trend in the Gold market.
COMEX:GC1!
by EdgeClear
Gold Futures: Flight of the PhoenixCOMEX:GC1! Gold Futures Analysis: Gold futures are currently presenting a clearer picture compared to equity index futures. Crude oil futures, on the other hand, have already priced in much of the recent tariff news, with a reversal observed from the 2025 mid-range back towards $65. Despite heightened volatility, the WTI crude oil market remains relatively balanced, with bearish sentiment materializing, if prices drop below and stay below the $65 mark. Gold futures, however, are offering more defined risk-reward opportunities at the moment. Our analysis shows a macro bullish trend in gold, along with price discovery and market auction trends visible on lower timeframes. On the 4-hour chart below, we observe a rising upward channel, with key levels identified and reasoning for these levels labeled on the chart. Key Levels: • ATH: 3201.6 • HVN (High Volume Node) for long entry: 3115 • LVN (Low Volume Node)/LIS for short entry: 3095.1 • Key LVN Support: 3003.7-3018 Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation If Gold futures stay below the trend line that defines both our long and short trade ideas, the bearish scenario could materialize. For a short trade to be viable, we would look for a close below the LVN/LIS level (3095.1) and enter on a pullback, targeting the major LVN support zone around 3018.0. Example trade parameters for Scenario 1: • Entry: 3095.1 • Stop: 3125 • Target: 3018 • Risk: 29.9 points • Reward : 77.1 points • Risk to Reward Ratio: RRR=77.1/29.9 ≈2.58 Scenario 2: Bullish Reversal In the event that Gold futures push back towards all-time highs due to heightened uncertainty and a flight to safety, we expect initial profit-taking by shorter timeframe traders to provide a pullback. This could present a long opportunity towards the all-time highs. Example trade parameters for Scenario 2: • Entry: 3115 • Stop: 3095 • Target: 3200 • Risk : 20 points • Reward : 85 points • Risk-to-Reward Ratio: RRR= 85/20 = 4.25 Important Notes: • These are example trade ideas, and traders are encouraged to do their own analysis and preparation before entering any positions. • Stop losses are not guaranteed to trigger at specified levels, and actual losses may exceed predetermined stop levels.
COMEX:GC1!
by EdgeClear
Gold Futures Trade Idea Gold futures have broken out of multi-year resistance levels and are trading near all-time highs. After trending higher for most of 2024, the focus shifts to where prices will move in 2025 and the remaining weeks of the year. Several macroeconomic factors will influence gold's trajectory, including: 1. Geopolitical landscape 2. Interest rates and inflation outlook 3. Supply and demand dynamics In the next two weeks, significant data points and economic events will shape the market. Central banks worldwide are set to adjust interest rates. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 bps on December 18, 2024. Key considerations will include any shift in language about future rate cuts and the dot plot from the upcoming meeting. Additionally, the U.S. CPI report, due Wednesday, will be closely watched. Key Levels to Watch: Line in the Sand (LIS): 2673.80–2684.50 Resistance: 2740–2760 Support: 2552.50–2566.80 Three Possible Scenarios for Gold Futures Prices: 1. Bullish Break Above LIS: A breakout and sustained hold above the LIS could push prices higher toward resistance levels. This scenario might be driven by softer CPI data on Wednesday and the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, including potential future rate cuts. A lower inflation environment could provide further tailwinds for gold. 2. Pullback Toward Support: If prices break and hold below the LIS, clearing recent consolidation lows around 2630, a decline toward the support zone is likely. This scenario aligns with persistent inflation, leading to a "higher for longer" interest rate environment in 2025. Additionally, easing geopolitical tensions under the new U.S. administration could shift focus toward domestic policies, potentially reducing gold's safe-haven appeal. 3. Range-Bound Price Action: Gold prices could consolidate near current highs, trading within a range below all-time highs. This scenario reflects a lack of decisive inflows or outflows, with market participants waiting for clearer cues to shape the price trajectory in 2025. As the year concludes, the interplay between macroeconomic factors and technical levels will determine whether gold continues its upward momentum, retraces to support, or stabilizes in a range. Stay tuned for key economic releases to guide near-term price action. Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal opinions and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Derivatives involve a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors.
COMEX:GC1!
by EdgeClear
How to Manage Gold RisesGold is likely to continue its upward trend. And how I have been managing it both as an investor and a trader for the Gold. I hope this tutorial will be helpful for two groups of people: 1. Those who already have some positions and would like to know how to accumulate more, and 2. Those who do not yet have a position but are considering getting in and trading it, though you may be worried about entering at a peak, as gold continues to reach new highs. Micro Gold Futures & Options Ticker: MGC Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by konhow
1
Gold Breaks All-Time-High !Gold surged above $2286 per ounce, marking yet another milestone in its remarkable ascent. This surge has persisted for two consecutive trading days, underscoring the enduring strength of the precious metal. The driving force behind this meteoric rise is the mounting anticipation of an imminent interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in June. Such a move is expected to exert downward pressure on the US Dollar, consequently fueling further gains in Gold prices. Year-to-date, Gold has surged by an impressive 9.8%, with March alone witnessing a staggering increase of nearly 9.4%. A closer examination from a technical standpoint reveals a bullish breakout from an ascending triangle formation, marked (in blue) which has been taking shape since early 2020. This breakout signals a robust indication of sustained bullish momentum in Gold prices over the long term. For traders, this presents a lucrative opportunity to capitalize on the prevailing bullish bias both in the intermediate and short term. Going along the phrase of "The trend is your friend", a simple trade below may capture any retracement opportunities along this steep surge. Entry: 2218 TP: 2320 (can be partial TP or pull up trail stop) SL: 2149
COMEX:GC1!Long
by phillip_nova
Inflation on 20 years "Borrowed Time"Gold started its rally since 2000. Whereas inflation and interest rates remain low since 2000. Reason for the "Borrowed Time"? Because easy money policy was needed to create: 1) An increase in money supply 2) By lowering its interest rates Purpose for easy money policy? 3 major events after 2000: 1) Middle East War 2) Subprime crisis 3) Covid-19 rescue plan (it tipped in 2020) The after effect of the accumulated easy money policy seem to be at its beginning. Meaning more upside for inflation and interest rates. Meaning Gold to continue its upward momentum. For traders - 3 types of gold for trading: • COMEX Gold 0.10 per troy ounce = $10.00 • E-mini Gold 0.25 per troy ounce = $12.50 • Micro Gold 0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00 See the video version below Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!
by konhow
Gold is still an inflationary hedge asset, why?My answer is definitely a Yes! But why many say no. It is because they are looking at Gold from a very microscopic view; into its day-to-day to week-to-week movement. But if we analyse Gold from a macro perspective, we will able to appreciate Gold better, that it is still an inflationary hedge asset. And from today’s case study, we will also learn why it is time to get into Gold again at around this price. Content: • Gold is still an inflationary hedge asset, why? • When to enter into the Gold market again? For investor, you can invest into the physical Gold, Gold ETFs, funds and even those mining stocks that pay dividend. For traders, I would like to trade into Futures. COMEX E-Mini Gold Qo1! 0.25 per troy ounce = $12.50 1.00 = $50 1650 to 1750 = 100 x $50 = US$5,000 COMEX Micro Gold MGC1! COMEX Regular Gold GC1! Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. Stay tuned for our next episode in this series, we will discuss more on the insight of inflation and rising interest rates. More importantly, how to use this knowledge, turning it to our advantage in these challenging times for all of us. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!
by konhow
20
Inflation & Interest Rate Series – The CPI Rally Content: • Why CPI could be at the beginning of a rally? • On 14 Dec 21, Fed: “Inflation is not transitory” changes everything • Strategy to counter inflation Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. If you are into shorter-term trading, the live data feed is definitely a must for traders. In part 2 of this series, we will do a deep dive on if CPI were to decline, to at what specific level? Before we can consider inflation is under control. Stay tuned for our next episode in this series, we will discuss more on the insight of inflation and rising interest rates. More importantly, how to use this knowledge, turning it to our advantage in these challenging times for all of us. COMEX Micro Gold 0.1 = US$1 1.0 = US$10 1700 points = US$17,000 Eg. 100 points profit = US$1,000
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by konhow
3