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Commitmentsoftraders

Long Crude! - Trading with the COT ReportThis is a great example of how to trade the COT Index and Net positioning - Commercials for crude oil are almost always net short (Think of all the big oil companies hedging their product) but in this instance, they are less net-long than they have been in quite some time (Not since November 2016). Look on the daily chart for an entry - be patient - remember your stops. I also like that the macro trend is positive. Added bonus - a great way to hedge your prices at the pump. Note: Trading the COT simply tells you when we're in a bullish/bearish environment. An entry still needs to be made based on price behavior. Additional Note: Look how accurate the COT Index has been on Crude (Red and Green highlighting on the lower chart) Notes on My Trading Methodology and What I'm Even Talking About COT Definitions: - COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities 1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc) 2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds) 3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms) Indicators on Chart: - The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time - The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0 - Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario) Trade Setup - Both Must Happen: - When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above) - On a daily chart, use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here) - Added bonus when the trend is your friend (I use a Multiple Moving Averages indicator to visualize)
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Rudeadam18
2
Long Wheat (ZW) - COT Thrust Signal (Read for Explanation)CBOT:ZW1! A bit of a unique chart setup here - typically I trade based solely on the max positioning of the commercials (See below for an explanation of what that means). However, I will occasionally look for a buy when the Net positioning of commercials has accelerated recently (Indicated by black bars in the COT indicator at bottom of the chart). For this trade, use the daily chart for an entry using your favorite technical indicator (if it triggers!). Note: Crop Progress report on Monday Risk: There has been some recent heavy selling making this slightly counter trend Additional Note: Look how accurate the COT Index has been on calling highs and lows for Wheat (Green and Red highlighting on the bottom indicator). And no, I did not optimize the settings to get this to occur. Helping Materials to Understand What I'm Talking About (I have this on all my ideas now) COT Definitions: - COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities 1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc) 2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds) 3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms) Indicators on Chart: - The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time - The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0. The black bars show when the index is moving rapidly and can also trigger a trade) - Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario) Trade Setup - Both Must Happen: - When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above) - On a daily chart , use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here)
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Rudeadam18
Commitment of Traders Report from Last Week - BTC UpdateGoing over the CME Gap that exists above us as well as the current Price Action. BTC failing it's swing was a great short after we short squeezed to the level. Swings, S/Rs, and Demand Zones are being respected perfectly. Scalping in this zone don't do anything except look for mechanical failures and retests/gains. Low liquidity expected. Lose or gain the Swing Levels then target the stuff above and below Otherwise look to play the bounces within these Swings.
by TrendmasterOfficial
2
A GOOD TIME TO BUY PUT OPTIONS ON EURJPY!We forecast a gradual demand for the JPY on the premise of global economic uncertainties. This idea is supported by almost 50% decline in net short positions of large speculators on the JPY since May 2022 from negative 110k to 54k. However, speculative positions on the Euro recently flipped to the negative to dampen the optimism of a recovery on the Euro. BoJ has alluded to signs of recovery in Japan's economy. Worthy of note was BOJ Gov Kuroda's statement: "Must be vigilant to impact of financial, currency market moves and their impact on Japan's economy, prices". The technical trigger of price below the previous month's low inspired our interest in buying 30 days PUT options @138.00
Short
by dynamiquebd
BUY IN THE LONGTERM ALONG THE DESCENDING CHANNELThe Euro Area GDP expanded by 0.6% on quarter in Q1 2022, twice a 0.3% growth in the previous estimate, and above a downwardly revised 0.2% gain in Q4. Improved export activities. Exports increased 0.4% while imports fell 0.6%. Concerns around the war in Ukraine resulting in inflationary pressures on food prices and supply disruptions The ECB is set to end 8 years of negative interest rates, in an attempt to curb record inflation, which is likely to weigh on consumer spending and investment. The European Commission expects the EA GDP growth at 2.7% for 2022. ECB President Lagarde reaffirmed plans to hike rates twice this summer. The Euro Dollar Exchange Rate - EUR/USD is expected to trade at 1.04 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts' expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 1.00 in 12 months' time. Net positions of large speculators declined significantly by 112% to negative sentiment in the futures market on the 14th of June 2022. We expect to hold 3 months Call contracts along the lower bands of the descending channel
Long
by dynamiquebd