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stock drop was forewarned by goldStocks to gold ratio had dropped weeks before the spx in dollars had turned. Was the gold buying a signal that safe haven collateral was in demand? In a panic, both stocks and gold can be sold as investors need more and more liquidity in falling markets. So gold is not necessarily an inverse asset to stock, keep this in mind. In most major sell offs, gold tends to outperform as central banks react to restimulate after a crisis, so the gold move could be implying some weakness coming and a move to safety. Dollar devaluation down the road or more debt is the reason gold later rises. Its good practice to look at stock indices compared to other commodities to get a better big picture view of what is happening.
TVC:GOLD
by optionfarmers
EU faces pressure to defuse mounting anger as farmers protest aGiven the mounting anger and protests by farmers across Europe, there appears to be a significant challenge stemming from contradictory and potentially detrimental agricultural policies. The grievances include increased costs for agricultural diesel, additional fees for water consumption, complex regulations, and objections to bans on pesticides and herbicides mandated by the EU's Green Deal. The farmers are also concerned about the import of beef from countries like Brazil and Argentina, which they argue have laxer rules on animal welfare, making competition difficult. This unrest, originating in France but spreading to neighboring countries, signals a broader issue with unpredictable government decisions affecting agriculture. In the Netherlands and Germany, similar protests have arisen over regulations to cut nitrogen emissions and phase out fuel subsidies, respectively. In Germany, there is also resentment over what is perceived as the unfair application of environmental policies. With protests extending to Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, and Bulgaria, concerns range from unfair competition from cut-price cereals to high taxes and tight regulations. The impact of droughts, floods, and wildfires, combined with the squeeze from green policies, has fueled discontent. For investors, this could be a pivotal moment to consider commodities such as cereals, soybeans, and copper. The disruptions in European agriculture may create fluctuations in the market, making these commodities potentially attractive for investment. However, it is crucial to monitor developments closely as tensions continue to grow, and the agricultural sector shapes up to be a major issue in the upcoming European Parliament elections in June.
AMEX:DBCLong
by Maximus20000
DXY - wide scenarioThe shallowness in the market corresponds to the movements of the dollar, which keeps valuations from mainly consolidating templates. Due to the current situations in European countries and the increasing turmoil in the US. It may introduce a slight mix in the currency, crypto and commodity markets. In the event that the US maintains its position and the rest of the mid-sized countries fall into economic problems then we could see relative to the scenarios presented on the chart an exit at the top and gain dollar dominance in the global market. The second option is to carry this forward in time, consolidate the current movement beforehand and then build a formation that will kick this upward. Follow the trend and react accordingly. The market could be crazy by the end of the year....
TVC:DXYLong
by cryptobetgang
UPDATE: MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK ON THE DOLLARWhat's up trading world! Hope you have been well & taking care of yourself in these uncertain economic times! I am back with another DOLLAR INDEX update, now I did say I would update at the end of June however, with 1st July being a Friday, I wanted to observe how the market plays out so I could give a move comprehensive update! UPDATE: 1. Bearing my previous post in mind, we saw the dollar shoot upwards and this was due to the biggest interest rate hike by the Fed since 1994. Monkeypox cases have also remained small in number which has only boosted the dollar even more. 2. As a result of the above, we saw pattern ABC play out in June (see previous post) where point 'B' illustrated opportunities for optimal buy-entries and these signals were shared with my private community and we were able to have a lovely 1:4 risk-reward trade (+420pips) that smashed through relevant targets! MOVING FORWARD: 1. The dollar doesn't plan on slowing down anytime soon, we will definitely be expecting a rate hike again in July, it is the only way to crumb the inflation and do a hard reset on the debt the US has accumulated. 2. Barring covid & monkeypox cases remaining below 10K per/day, the dollar will continue to soar as commodities continue their much-needed reset. 3. Unemployment (NFP) numbers coming this week will also be a key indicator and although we expect it to be higher than last month, should there be a drop, I don't believe the drop will be extensive enough to stop the dollar's rally. Technical analysis: 1. For optimal BUY-entry opportunities moving forward, wait for pattern ABC to play out, with point-B signalling entry point for buy-trades however, given the strength of the dollar, it might not even retest our daily support but rather continue going up due to strong fundamentals & key institutional traders trade-positions that are pushing the market right now. 2. Whether there is a RETEST or not of our daily-support zone, should the above 'moving forward' conditions happen, expect the DOLLAR index to make its way to $108, a price level it hasn't reached in almost 20 years!! Thanks for reading! Let's take advantage of the markets together! These are generational wealth times that we are living in, don't let them pass you by! :))
TVC:DXYLong
by No-NonsenseFX_
Crude and Oil Stocks - It's here, the massive collapse few experts warned about. Today, was proof that demand is much smaller than mainstream economists thought. Sure, June contracts are $21, but, that can change like it did today. From here, what can we expect with oil being at $1 a barrel? Simple. Massive closures of oil fields and oil producers going bust. Remember that oil producers barely make it by on $40 a barrel oil, so, at -35 or $1 oil, it's a dead end. Sell your stock in oil companies, wait to see what transpires from here and go into safe havens for now. I foresee another massive selling coming soon unless the Fed and PPT start buying and manipulating. Next level of investment - It's Robinhood Gold, but free and FAR better. Tick by Tick updates and so much more plus 1 free stock. act.webull.com
AShort
by WorldEconomics
Silver - Cyclical Trend Analysis - 1971/1991 - 2001/2021I believe in patterns and cycles, particularly within financial markets, there is very often clear symmetry between time periods and price action and i believe wholeheartedly in the study of cycles, so let's begin. 1971/1991 cycle: ~ 20 year cycle from the start of the bull run, to the eventual low after the peak ~ 9 years of the cycle, approximately half, is bullish followed by an almost equal period of time to the downside ~ This differentiates commodities from stocks, whereby stocks usually recover faster and there is more asymmetry in how the cycle is skewed ~ The depth of the pullback of the cycle was approximately 70% of the total move ~ The final low was achieved AFTER the breakdown of the descending triangle pattern, in which it was a two stage move lower, with a sharp initial drop of around 16%, followed by a brief consolidation, then a final drop of 14% ~ The low also coincided with the initial breakout and subsequent consolidation 2001/2021 Whilst the cycle is not yet complete, there are obvious similarities in both pattern formation and price action, these include; ~ The bull phase appears to have followed the "20 year cycle" quite nicely, with the bullish component stretching close to 10 years ~ This would place the bottom on the flip side of that 20 year timeframe, in 2021 ~ The clear descending triangle pattern, and the subsequent break lower, whilst this drop was substantially more violent, when measured from the lower support line of the descending triangle, the move is actually within a few percentage points of one another It is worth mentioning that the forecast low may be calculated in one of two ways, the first is to measure the candle drop (29% in 2020) and assume an equal drop (an additional 29%) before the lows, this would coincide with the 70% retracement and give symmetry with the prior cycle. The other way you may interpret the charts is to take the move that falls below the lower trendline (15%), and assume an equal drop (an additional 15%) and this move would equate to a move to the 61.8% retracement Macro Environment: I understand that the macro environments are very different and are not directly comparable, that being said, the macro outlook actually supports the analysis of the prior cycle that suggests lower silver prices are in the future. The supply chain disruptions are going to directly impact the INDUSTRIAL demand for silver and therefore the prices of the futures contracts (i do not believe that physical silver will fall to these levels). This pressure may very well result in a final flush out of the last hold outs who may believe, perhaps naively, that business as usual will commence sooner rather than later. This could very well be the final leg down, as seen in the prior cycle that results in a final low. SP-500 Index - down over 30% Summary of Analysis: ~ Should silver follow the above analysis, this would suggest that single digit PAPER silver is in the next 12-18 months (between $7.00-$9.00) ~ After which, that should represent a more definitive bottom, in line with the 20 year cycle ~ Watch for another leg down to the 70% retracement of the prior move (within the outlined box) ~ Be aware that PHYSICAL silver is highly unlikely to mirror these drops, as these moves will likely be initiated by industry, who do not foresee a "V reversal" in demand, following the severe economic lockdowns around the globe in response to Covid19 -TradingView
COMEX:SI1!Short
by Profit_Link
XPTUSD - Are the bears done?XPTUSD has made a real bearish structure since running in the highs of 1041, forming Lower Highs and Lower Lows. Thus i would not advice looking for any buys until we break these structures with bullish price action. This been said I see an area of interest where price could reject and have the potential to turn bullish and reverse. On the daily TF a bottom has been formed where price has spiked through. For any potential on reversal price must hold 953-950 region. Safest entry for a bullish entry would be with a break and retest of previous swing high. If price fails to hold this level i would continue to sell on retracements. ~Gratz TopTok
OANDA:XPTUSD
by Toptok
GOLD: Weekly timeframe analysis and thoughts. I am frequently asked about my opinion on investing in gold on current market prices. though I have already expressed my opinion on this subject multiple times, here is the answer from a different angle. Analysing gold on weekly we can quite easily identify key structure levels that are important for the market participants. Two major levels of support and resistance between which the market is trading right now are: 1560 and 1360. We have a wide 200$ trading range. Within this range there are multiple minor structure levels: 1520 1480 1440 1400 strictly keeping 40$ distance between them. Because quite recently gold has reached a major level of resistance 1560 now we see a retracement. for trend followers big question arises: from which level we should expect a trend continuation? for now, it is totally unclear. but from this analysis we can derive totally different, but still valuable conclusion: buying gold for long term investment purposes right now is not reasonable. So, once again, think twice before investing in the overheated market.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by VasilyTrader
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