Crude oil gains could be limited. Here's whyAlong with other risk assets, crude oil has had a positive day, albeit a much quieter one compared to the major indices. It has been held back in part by the dollar also finding good support. So, I think a large part of the rally today in WTI is just a function of the market pricing in higher demand because of lower tariffs. Thus, it is the removal of a bearish factor driving prices higher, which could be factor for a while yet as market finds a new equilibrium. The underlying issue of an oversupplied market is what will ultimately determine oil prices. On that front, you have the OPEC ready to release more withheld supplies as it doesn’t want to lose more market share to non-OPEC producers. Thus, the upside linked to a brighter demand outlook should be capped. So, while I do think prices may rise a little further, I don’t think that we will see significantly higher prices with the current state of supply picture. I wouldn’t be surprised if $70 turns into resistance now on Brent, or if WTI holds this shaded yellow resistance range you can see on this chart around $65 area.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
