GOLD - Price can break support level and continue to declineHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently price entered to triangle, where it at once bounced from support line, which coincided with support level.
Price rose to resistance line, breaking $3400 level, but soon turned around and dropped below, breaking this level again.
Next, Gold made a gap and continued to fall in a triangle, and later it reached $3215 level, after which bounced up.
Then price exited from triangle, rose to $3400 level and made fake breakout, after which started to decline in falling channel.
In channel, price fell to $3215 level, where at the moment continued to trades close and trying to break this level.
I think Gold can break this level and continue to fall in a falling channel to $3140
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Commodities
Gold - New All Time High in the making?market context and trend environment
This 4-hour chart of Gold (XAU/USD) from OANDA illustrates a strong impulsive structure within a broader bullish trend. Following a sharp upward movement that broke through previous structure, gold formed a swing high before entering a corrective phase. The market has since pulled back and appears to be stabilizing near a zone of high confluence, suggesting potential for a renewed move to the upside. Price has respected key retracement levels, reinforcing the technical strength of this zone.
fair value gap and fibonacci confluence
A notable feature of this setup is the alignment between a visible fair value gap and the Fibonacci golden pocket zone, comprising the 0.618–0.65 retracement levels. This convergence of technical tools adds weight to the significance of the support zone around the 3,280–3,300 region. Fair value gaps represent inefficiencies in the market caused by strong institutional participation, while the golden pocket is historically known for acting as a magnet for reversals within trending markets. The presence of both in the same area increases the likelihood of price reacting positively here.
liquidity sweep and structural reaction
Before revisiting this key demand zone, price briefly swept below a local low, which may have served as a liquidity grab to fuel the next bullish leg. This liquidity sweep is followed by a sharp reaction, suggesting that downside pressure may have been absorbed by aggressive buyers positioned at the FVG and golden pocket. Price has since rebounded, and the subsequent price action shows a gradual formation of higher lows, hinting at a shift in short-term order flow back in favor of buyers.
projection and bullish scenario
The chart projects a potential bullish continuation move, with a series of higher lows anticipated to form en route to a break of structure above recent swing highs. Multiple buy-side liquidity levels (BSL) are marked, representing areas where buy stops are likely to be clustered. These zones offer clear targets for bullish expansion. The blue arrowed projection outlines a methodical stair-step advance, respecting interim levels before ultimately attempting to reach the prior high near 3,530.
strategic framework and trader insight
This chart offers a methodical roadmap for bullish continuation, rooted in the smart money framework of liquidity, inefficiency, and institutional order flow. The confluence between the fair value gap and Fibonacci retracement is particularly notable and serves as a key validation area for bullish traders. Rather than anticipating immediate breakout behavior, the projection emphasizes a progressive structure that aligns with how larger players tend to accumulate positions before moving the market. Patience and alignment with structure are emphasized as price prepares for a potential continuation move higher.
Why Gold Is Pulling Back Now – May 2025 Update⚡️After surging above $3,500/oz in late April, gold has since declined over 8%, recently breaking below key levels and now trading near $3,210. The retracement reflects fading panic buying and growing attention to fundamental drivers: U.S. monetary policy, the strong dollar, easing geopolitical risks, and completed trade agreements. Here’s a breakdown of the leading catalysts and their current impact (ranked 0–10).
1. Fed “Higher for Longer” Bias Strength: 9/10 The Fed kept interest rates at 4.25–4.50% at its June policy meeting and reiterated its cautious stance. The absence of cuts combined with persistent inflation pressure is lifting real yields and undercutting gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset.
2. U.S. Dollar Resurgence Strength: 8/10The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has climbed above 101 as investors digest the Fed’s hawkish tone. A stronger dollar reduces global gold demand, especially from non-USD buyers.
3. U.S.–China Trade Agreement Reached in Switzerland Strength: 7.5/10 A formal trade deal was announced in Geneva in May, easing longstanding tariff tensions. While specific tariff rollback details are pending, markets welcomed the de-escalation, pushing investors away from gold and into risk assets.
4. U.S.–U.K. Trade Deal Signed Strength: 7/10 The U.S. and U.K. finalized a bilateral trade agreement in early May, boosting global sentiment and further reducing the geopolitical premium priced into gold.
5. India–Pakistan Border De-escalation Strength: 6.5/10 After brief clashes in Kashmir in mid-May, both sides have since released statements of restraint. The calm has helped cap gold’s safe-haven bids.
6. Iran–U.S. Nuclear Talks Update Strength: 6/10 Talks resumed in Vienna in May with cautious optimism. While no concrete deal has been signed, progress and diplomatic language from both sides have eased fears of escalation.
7. Russia–Ukraine Ceasefire Developments Strength: 5.5/10 Localized ceasefires in eastern Ukraine, brokered by Turkey and the UN, have lowered near-term geopolitical risk. However, skepticism remains around long-term stability.
8. ETF Inflows & Institutional Demand Strength: 5/10 ETF inflows slowed in May (up just 48.2 tonnes), reflecting waning retail momentum. Still, central bank buying—especially from China—offers a medium-term cushion.
Catalyst Strength Rankings (May 2025)
🔸Fed “higher for longer” bias 9
🔸U.S. dollar rebound 8
🔸U.S.–China trade agreement 5.5
🔸U.S.–U.K. trade deal signed 5
🔸India–Pakistan border easing 6.5
🔸Iran–U.S. nuclear diplomacy 6
🔸Russia–Ukraine ceasefire 5.5
🔸Global gold ETF & central-bank inflows 5
Where Next for Gold?
⚡️Current price: ~$3,210/oz
📉Recent support levels broken: $3,300 and $3,250
🎯Next technical floor: $3,150/oz
✨Upside triggers: Renewed dollar weakness, inflation surprise, or geopolitical flare-up
Gold’s recent drop reflects the market's rotation out of fear-driven trades into yield-bearing and risk assets. While the Fed and the dollar remain dominant forces, any shock—whether geopolitical or inflationary—could quickly reignite interest in gold as a hedge.
GOLD BULLS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|LONG
GOLD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 3,211.87
Target Level: 3,375.85
Stop Loss: 3,102.01
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 12h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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XAUUSD Daily Sniper Plan – Monday, May 12, 2025“Structure First. Noise Later. Gold Moves Clean When You Do.” ⚖️🧠
Intraday Bias: Bullish, short-term recovery inside broader pullback
Structure: CHoCH confirmed at 3284 → market forming higher low structure
🔍 H1 Market Flow Overview:
Price broke structure above 3284–3292, forming a clean CHoCH on H1.
Since then, price impulsively pushed toward 3340, pausing around 3314–3318.
EMAs (5/21/50) are starting to align bullish, with EMA5 now crossing above 21.
Volume compression + wicks suggest potential accumulation in the 3314–3318 zone.
📌 Key H1 Zones (Above & Below Price)
🔺 Resistance Zones
Zone Description
3340–3345 Friday’s high + intraday liquidity trap zone
3380–3395 Strong H1/Daily confluence resistance (OB + FVG)
🔻 Support Zones
Zone Description
3314–3318 🔵 Micro liquidity pocket + HL accumulation zone – potential inducement/reentry base
3284–3292 🔵 CHoCH base – must hold for bullish structure to continue
3260–3265 🔵 Deep intraday OB + liquidity sweep zone
3220–3235 🔵 Major HTF demand – structural last line of defense
🔁 Scenarios for Monday (May 12):
🟢 Bullish Setup:
If price holds above 3314–3318, we may see a reattempt toward 3340, then potentially push into 3380–3395.
Retest of 3314 zone could serve as HL confirmation before breakout.
🔴 Bearish Setup:
If 3314 fails and price closes below 3284, this invalidates current bullish micro-structure.
In that case, we target 3260 or even 3235 depending on momentum.
Rejection from 3340 or 3380 without BOS → short toward 3284 or 3250
Clean break below 3284 flips LTF bearish
🎯 Sniper Logic:
Gold is trapped in a battle between Friday’s high and the CHoCH base.
The true breakout will come once either 3345 is reclaimed clean, or 3284 fails hard.
Until then, play inside structure — sniper entries only.
💬 Final Words:
Gold doesn’t bluff — but it does bait and trap.
Mark your zones, wait for confirmation, and let the impulsive ones get hunted.
Gold doesn’t care about your bias — only about the zones that hold.
If 3284 stays protected, bulls might reload. If it cracks, fade the optimism and follow the flow down.
🟡 Stay smart. Stay patient. And remember: clean structure = clean profit.
✨ Drop your thoughts in the comments, smash that like, and follow GoldFxMinds for sniper-level clarity every session.
IREDA India should target 253.8
Daily chart,
The stock NSE:IREDA has crossed a falling expanding wedge, and the target is 253.8, passing through a strong resistance level at 234.3
However, there is a strong Resistance line R, currently around 172.7
So, after stabilizing above 172.7 for 2 days, the target should be confirmed for a new entry (buy)
Consider a stop loss below 154, and raise the level along with the bullish movement.
Technical indicators:
RSI is forming a bullish direction - positive
MACD is about to cross up the zero line - To be assertive after crossing both the zero line and its signal.
Golden Opportunity: XAU/USD’s Bull & Bear Heist Strategy!Hello Money Makers & Market Bandits! 🤑💰✈️
Get ready to raid the XAU/USD Gold Market with our cunning Thief Trading Style, blending sharp technicals and deep fundamental insights! 📊🔥 Our plan? Strike with precision on both bullish and bearish moves, grabbing profits before the market turns. Let’s outwit the charts and stack that gold! 🏆💸
📈 The Gold Heist Plan
Entry Points 🚪:
🏴☠️ Bullish Move: Wait for a pullback to the Institutional Hidden Buy Zone at 3080—your signal to jump in for bullish gains!
🏴☠️ Bearish Move: Watch for a breakout below the neutral level at 3200—time to ride the bearish wave!
Tip: Set alerts to catch these key levels! 🔔
Stop Loss (SL) 🛑:
Bullish Trade: Place SL at 2960 (4H swing low, Institutional Hidden Buy Zone).
Bearish Trade: Set SL at 3360 (4H swing high).
Adjust SL based on your risk, lot size, and number of orders. Stay sharp—this is your shield! ⚠️
Take Profit (TP) 🎯:
Bullish Robbers: Aim for 3660 or exit early if momentum fades.
Bearish Robbers: Target 3080 or slip out before the market flips.
Escape Plan: Watch for overbought/oversold signals to avoid traps! 🚨
📡 Why XAU/USD?
The Gold Market is in a bearish trend 🐻, driven by:
Fundamentals: USD strength from Fed policy, US growth, and tariffs.
Macroeconomics: US resilience vs. global economic weakness.
COT Data: Bearish speculative bets favor USD.
Intermarket: Rising US yields and equities boost USD, pressuring gold.
Quantitative: RSI and Fibonacci confirm bearish momentum.
🧠 Sentiment Outlook (May 12, 2025)
Retail Traders:
🟢 Bullish: 42% 😊 (Hoping for gold rebound on trade war fears)
🔴 Bearish: 45% 😟 (USD strength and improved US-China relations weigh)
⚪ Neutral: 13% 🤔
Source: Social sentiment & trading platform polls
Institutional Traders:
🟢 Bullish: 30% 💼 (Safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty)
🔴 Bearish: 60% ⚠️ (USD rally and higher concrete 5/12/2025)
🟢 Bullish: 30% 💼 (Safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty)
🔴 Bearish: 60% ⚠️ (USD rally and higher yields suppress gold)
⚪ Neutral: 10% 🧐
Source: COT reports & institutional flows
⚠️ Trading Alert: News & Risk Management 📰
News can shake the market like a storm! Protect your loot:
Skip new trades during major news releases.
Use trailing stop-loss to lock in profits and limit losses.
Stay vigilant—volatility is our playground, but only with a plan!
💪 Ride with the Thief Trading Team!
Hit the Boost Button to power up our Thief Trading Style and make this heist epic! 🚀 Each boost fuels our squad, helping us plunder profits daily. Let’s conquer the XAU/USD market together! 🤝
Stay tuned for the next heist! 🐱👤 Keep your charts ready, alerts on, and trading vibe high. Catch you in the profits, bandits! 🤑🎉
#ThiefTrading #XAUUSD #GoldHeist #TradingView #StackTheGold
Gold Bounces After Fake Break — More Upside AheadGold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) fell to the Support zone($3,280-$3,240) as I posted yesterday ( Full Target) .
Gold started to rise again after making a Fake Break below the Support lines .
Gold is trading above the Resistance zone($3,330-$3,320) .
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that Bitcoin completed the main wave C with the help of the Ending Diagonal .
Educational note : The Ending Diagonal in Classic Technical Analysis is the Falling Wedge Pattern .
I expect Gold to resume its bullish trend, at least for the short term , and to at least $3,356 .
Note: If Gold breaks the Support lines with high volume, we can expect further declines.
Note: Worst Stop Loss(SL) = $3,031
Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 15-minute time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
How to layout gold as Sino-US trade eases🗞News side:
1. China-US trade relations eased, suspending some tariffs and countermeasures
2. Russia and Ukraine suspended firing for 30 days, and the India-Pakistan conflict was temporarily mediated
📈Technical aspects:
Affected by the easing of Sino-US economic and trade relations, coupled with the fact that the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations are on the right track and India and Pakistan have suspended firing, the risk aversion sentiment in the gold market has eased, and the gold price has fallen sharply since the opening today. At present, the 3200 line has formed an important short-term support. If the support effect is strong at this point, the gold price may rebound further; if it falls below this key support, it will accelerate the opening of downward space. The upper 3250-3260 is the previous intensive trading area, which will pose a certain pressure in the short term. At the top of the European market, focus on the resistance range of 3250-3260, and at the bottom, the support range is 3210-3200.
🎁BUY 3200-3210
🎁TP 3250-3260
🎁 SELL 3260-3270
🎁 TP 3250-3230
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
XAUUSD - Is Gold Going Down?!Gold is trading in its descending channel on the four-hour timeframe, between the EMA200 and EMA50. A downward correction in gold will open up buying opportunities from the demand areas.
Investors in the precious metals market witnessed another week of gold’s strong performance. Although overall optimism about a potential reduction in trade tariffs slightly slowed gold’s momentum, robust demand from Asia and other global regions provided solid support, preventing any major market correction.
At the beginning of the week, gold prices fell by over 1% on Monday as news of a trade agreement between the U.S. and China prompted investors to shift toward riskier assets. This drop occurred alongside easing geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan, which also contributed to a calmer market atmosphere.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamison Greer announced that the two nations had reached an agreement during negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland. The deal, which is expected to be released as a joint statement, signals a reduction in trade tensions that had escalated in recent weeks with tariffs reaching as high as 145% on Chinese imports.
As part of the agreement, the U.S. and China plan to establish a joint economic and trade consultation mechanism to continue discussions on tariffs. President Donald Trump hinted last week at a potential reduction in tariffs to 80%, although the official details of the deal have yet to be disclosed.
Adam Button, Chief Currency Strategist at Forexlive.com, commented that in the current market environment, it is difficult not to be bullish on gold. However, he warned that any de-escalation in U.S.-China tensions could dampen the strength of gold’s rally. He added, “Even though a 50% reduction in tariffs wouldn’t be the final chapter, if implemented, it would represent fairly rapid progress and a positive sign for both parties.”
In addition to trade developments, the easing of tensions in Kashmir and a ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan have also reduced demand for safe-haven assets like gold. The ceasefire, brokered by the United States, remained largely intact over the weekend.
Adrian Day, CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management, stated that his outlook on gold remains unchanged. He explained, “Rising concerns over a potential U.S. recession, coupled with cautious optimism about easing trade tensions—especially between Washington and Beijing—could exert pressure on gold. However, gold’s notable resilience against price declines indicates underlying demand that has not yet fully entered the market.”
Meanwhile, Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst at Barchart.com, firmly maintained a bullish view on precious metals. He said, “If I had to write one analytical sentence on the market board, it would be: Precious metals must rally. I emphasize ‘must’ because nothing is certain in the markets. My bearish call last week was wrong, and it’s clear that technical analysis has become almost obsolete—especially in today’s world where algorithm-driven trading dominates.”
After a week largely influenced by the Federal Reserve’s meeting and tariff-related headlines, market focus now shifts to a data-heavy week featuring a broad range of U.S. economic indicators. The action kicks off Tuesday with the release of the April Consumer Price Index (CPI), a report that could offer insights into whether the Fed might cut interest rates in its June meeting.
The real highlight, however, is expected on Thursday, when key reports are scheduled to be published, including the Producer Price Index (PPI), retail sales figures, jobless claims data, and two major regional indices—the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey and the Empire State manufacturing index. Amidst this flood of information, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is also set to deliver a speech in Washington, which could serve as a major catalyst for market movement.
To wrap up the week, markets await Friday’s release of the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May—a report often viewed as a psychological gauge of American consumer behavior.
Gold - Follow The Macro Trend!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 GOLD has been overall bullish from a macro perspective trading within the rising wedge pattern in orange.
After rejecting the $3,500 round number and upper bound of the wedge, XAUUSD signaled the start of the correction phase as marked by the red falling channel.
Moreover, the $3,100 - $3,150 zone is a strong support.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of support and lower orange trendline acting non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #XAUUSD approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Gold Price Action (TRAP)Gold has been respecting a clear descending channel on the 1H timeframe. After a strong bullish impulse, price has been consolidating within this structured decline, showing lower highs and lower lows. But something interesting is happening now...
🔍 Current Observations:
Price remains within the lower boundary of the descending channel — showing signs of compression.
Volume spike detected near recent lows while candles remain relatively small in range.
This is a classic “Volume > Price” divergence, often associated with smart money absorption or hidden accumulation.
💡 What This May Mean:
Despite the bearish structure:
The increase in volume without new strong lows could indicate that institutional players (smart money) are absorbing sell orders from retail traders.
These setups can often lead to a sharp upward breakout, especially if the price closes above the channel midline or recent swing high.
📌 What to Watch:
A confirmed break above the channel (preferably with strong volume) would validate a potential reversal.
Support remains fragile around the lower boundary. Failure to hold may trigger a final flush or fake-out before reversal.
🔔 Strategy Ideas:
⚠️ Don't jump in early — wait for a clean breakout candle with follow-through.
✅ Look for confirmation like:
Bullish engulfing at key support
Volume spike + breakout of last 1–2 candle highs
Break of descending trendline with a close
🧠 Final Thought:
This may be a smart money trap setup — where institutions accumulate just before the trend turns. Keep your eyes on volume + structure for the clearest signals.
Gold H4: Sell Below Resistance Toward \$3,200XAUUSD (Gold vs USD) and outlines a range-bound trading scenario with key levels and potential price targets. Here’s a breakdown of the analysis:
🔍 Key Observations:
Support Zone (~$3,200 - $3,230):
Highlighted with yellow shading and green arrows.
Multiple historical bounces show this as a strong demand area.
Aligns closely with the 200 EMA ($3,223), reinforcing its strength.
Resistance Zone (~$3,350 - $3,375):
Marked as “RESISTANCE + TARGET 1”.
Previously acted as a ceiling; several price rejections noted.
A breakout above this zone could aim for Target 2: $3,400+.
Current Price (~$3,277):
Price is between the 50 EMA ($3,322) and the 200 EMA ($3,223).
Possible consolidation or preparation for a breakout.
Targets:
Target 1 (Downside): ~$3,200 — possible if price rejects from current level and breaks below support.
Target 2 (Upside): ~$3,400 — achievable if resistance breaks.
Price Projection Paths:
Bearish path: Rejection → retrace to support → break → Target 1.
Bullish path: Pullback → support holds → breakout → Target 2.
⚖️ Trading Idea Summary:
Bullish Bias above $3,230: Watch for a bounce and break of resistance toward $3,400.
Bearish Bias below $3,223: Watch for a breakdown and fall toward $3,200.
Use candlestick confirmation and volume for entry validation.
The price has a strong bearish momentum, could it drop further?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is rising towards the pivot, which acts as an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 1st support, which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 65.43
1st Support: 55.63
1st Resistance: 71.37
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Long Uranium and Nuclear via UECMy price targets for UEC. Based on the US Government's newly restored enthusiasm for Nuclear power & their borderline hostility towards dependance on other nations for much of anything, I think this All-American uranium company is ripe for a big run. I believe it will go way past my price targets and I may only trim half of my position if TP 3 hits.
THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT:
Last week’s KOG Report didn’t really go the way we wanted! We got the move we wanted initially into the low, then the long upside, but the levels we wanted to short from again were smashed through. We managed to navigate and adapt to the move and after changing the plan on the FOMC KOG Report we ended again with an extremely decent week on Gold.
As we’ve always said, when markets don’t go our way, don’t hold on to hope. If you're in the wrong way, accept your wrong and change your bias, this will not only save your account but together with the right risk management, you’ll be able to come out of the market in positive for the week.
So, what can we expect from the week ahead?
We have some news over the weekend that can open us up with gaps, otherwise Monday should be a ranging day and we’ll see some action Tuesday onwards. For this week we’ve added the red boxes for everyone, the indicator is working like a dream and allowing our traders to scalp, swing trade and day trade across the 15min/1h/4h timeframes. So please take note of them!
The problem we have this week is the structure entails two possible moves by the way they’ve set this up. For that reason, we’ll look at the key levels on the red boxes for the break and close together with KOG’s red box targets and bias of the week, before we commit to the market other than scalping.
We have the key level below 3306-10 support which if held again can push upside this time in attempt to break through the 3330 level and target the 3350-55 and above that 3365 region before a RIP. 3360 is the level to watch, if broken above and supported, we can start again with longs into that 3400+ region, but only on confirmation.
The ideal scenario here for us is a break of this symmetrical pattern in one direction, then applying our trading strategy to it which will confirm the move, we can only do this once it’s broken and then update you with the plan.
For now, we’ll play the red boxes and of course wait for our trusted algo Excalibur to guide us. As always, we will update the wider community as we go through the week.
KOG’s bias of the week:
Bullish above 3310 with targets above 3335, 3345, 3350, 3350, 3362 and 3370
Bearish below 3310 with targets below 3306, 3301, 3297, 3285 and 3274
RED BOXES (TAKE NOTE)
Break above 3335 for 3342, 3350, 3354, 3365, 3370. 3373 and 3385 in extension of the move
Break below 3320 for 3310, 3306, 3298, 3293, 3285 and 3279 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG