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XAUUSD – Are the Bulls Back? Key Reversal Zone in PlayXAUUSD – Are the Bulls Back? Key Reversal Zone in Play Gold has been consolidating in a tight range for several sessions, but both macro and technical indicators are pointing to a potential breakout. With volatility expected to rise, traders should keep a close eye on these high-probability zones. 🌍 Macro Overview – Is the Tide Turning for Gold? 📉 The Fed remains hawkish, but market sentiment has shifted, with over 65% probability priced in for a rate cut in September. This adds pressure on the dollar and offers upside potential for gold. 💸 10-year US Treasury yields are stabilizing, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and reigniting interest from risk-averse investors. ⚠️ Ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe continue to fuel demand for safe-haven assets. 🏦 Central banks, especially in China and India, are steadily increasing their gold reserves — a bullish long-term signal for the market. 📊 Technical Outlook – Watch the Fair Value Gap (FVG) The 3325–3327 support zone aligns with an unfilled FVG on H1-H4 charts, providing a key area for bullish momentum to resume. Sustained price action above this level may open a path toward 3360 and beyond. Conversely, if price reaches the 3398–3400 resistance area and shows signs of exhaustion, it could trigger a short-term pullback. ✅ Trade Setup 🟢 BUY ZONE: 3327 – 3325 SL: 3320 TP Targets: 3330 → 3335 → 3340 → 3345 → 3350 → 3355 → 3360 → 🔴 SELL ZONE: 3398 – 3400 SL: 3405 TP Targets: 3395 → 3390 → 3386 → 3380 → 3375 → 3370 → 3360 ⚠️ Final Thoughts The gold market is approaching a decision point... With the PCE and US GDP data due this week, traders should expect a potential volatility spike. Risk management remains key — wait for confirmation at key levels, stick to your plan, and don’t let emotions override discipline. This week could offer strong directional moves for gold, but only for those prepared.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Analysis-23 June 2025Gold (spot XAU/USD) is currently trading around $3,358. On the 4-hour chart, price has been range-bound between $3,356 and $3,400. Recently, gold attempted to break higher (up to around $3,394) but quickly reversed — a sign that the breakout may have been a smart money trap. Technically, the structure saw a break below $3,380 in mid-June, leading to a push toward the $3,323 region. This reflects a short-term bearish wave followed by stabilization near the lows. Bias: The market is currently neutral-to-bullish, depending on key supports. As long as price holds above the $3,322–$3,330 swing-lows, dips are considered buying opportunities. Notably, an order block/demand zone around $3,357–$3,360 appears to be holding well and attracting buyers. On the upside, $3,400 acts as a strong resistance level. A break above $3,400 would shift the bias firmly bullish, while a break below $3,338 would suggest bearish momentum returning. 🔑 Key 4H Support & Resistance Levels Resistance: • $3,400 – Major round number and recent high • $3,434–$3,435 – Next resistance above $3,400 • $3,451–$3,452 – Recent swing top • $3,500 – All-time-high level Supply Zone: • $3,388–$3,394 – Minor resistance and previous support turned supply Demand Zone (Order Block): • $3,357–$3,360 – Major 4H demand area showing strong buyer interest Support: • $3,338 – Critical support level below the order block • $3,322–$3,323 – Multi-source key swing support • $3,280–$3,300 – Lower targets if support fails • $3,260 or below – Worst-case downside projection if breakdown accelerates 📈 1-Hour Intraday Trade Setups Buy the Dip • Entry: $3,357–$3,360 • Confirmation: Bullish reversal candle on 1H • Stop Loss: Below $3,336 • Targets: $3,380 → $3,400 Sell a Rejected Rally • Entry: Near $3,400 (only if clear rejection is seen) • Confirmation: Bearish reversal candle or price stalling • Stop Loss: Above $3,400 • Targets: $3,360 → $3,330 Breakdown Short • Entry: If price breaks below $3,338 with strong 1H close • Stop Loss: Above $3,345 • Targets: $3,323 → $3,300 Bullish Breakout Trade • Entry: Break and retest above $3,400 • Confirmation: Clean 1H close above $3,400 • Stop Loss: Just below $3,400 • Targets: $3,434 → $3,452 ✅ Final Takeaway Gold is currently trading inside a $3,330–$3,400 range. The best intraday opportunity is to buy dips into the $3,357–$3,360 demand zone with a stop below $3,330, targeting $3,400+. If support breaks, flip to short toward $3,320–$3,300.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Tami512
What Is the Base Price or Long-term Support for Crude Oil?What is the base price for oil? Specifically, today we will discuss crude oil, and we can apply this understanding to other commodities as well. I won't go into too much technical detail about the difference between the base price and the cost price for crude oil, but for most people, it helps to see the title as “Is there a bottom-line price or support level for crude oil?” My answer is yes, and this is due to inflation. Over time, we tend to pay higher prices for food, gas and many others that we consume. The cost of goods varies between producers and merchants, and then from merchants to end consumers. However, it all starts with the producer. Before a producer acquires oil for refining, they reference crude oil prices as a benchmark to decide whether to make a purchase or hold back. So, “Is there a bottom-line price or support level for crude oil?” As we can see from the yearly chart, in every few years the base price of crude oil keeps adjusting higher; in levels and stages. There is also this parallel channel formed by joining across its troughs and mirror it to its prominent resistance, we can observe crude oil prices range bound between this broad uptrend over time. We can try to apply this analysis to other commodities; we will find a similar broad uptrend across most of them. But why? Because of inflation. Regarding the bottom-line support for crude oil, we observed that it was at $10 from the 1980s until the turn of the millennium. Over time, accounting for inflation, this support level shifted upward to around $30 from the early 2000s until 2020, the year of COVID-19. And now we can see there is a new support at $60 since the start of 2020. How to explain this break below $30 base price and went to -$40? In technical analysis, this break is considered a false break, because, at the close of that year, on this yearly chart, prices settled above the support line at $30. The story behind this is that when COVID hit, airlines were grounded, leading to storage issues for large quantities of oil. It cost more to store the oil than its selling price, which caused prices to drop below zero, reaching as low as -$40. But prices ultimately found its equilibrium and settle at a fair value at $48 that year. Where is the support for crude oil, and what is its current direction? This was a video analysis on Sep 2024, in this weekly chart, we can see a wedge pattern. Then I believe if the price breaks above this downtrend line, it suggests that we may see higher crude oil prices. And this analysis is taking shape today. We can see prices initially broke above this trendline, but shortly sink below and broke this support line at $66 to $55. And today we are at $73 after the renewal of the Middle East tension. How should I interpret the move to the recent low around $55? I would encourage to always discover the development with different time frame as time progress. Switching to the yearly chart, we observed that crude oil is still supported above $60 that year. Please also make a point to adjust this downtrend line from time to time as market dynamic changes. Watch the full video: WTI Crude Oil Futures & Options Ticker: MCL Minimum fluctuation: 0.01 per barrel = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by konhow
WTI Oil H4 | Multi-swing-low support at 61.8% Fibo retracementWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a multi-swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 72.92 which is a multi-swing-low support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 69.10 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support. Take profit is at 77.60 which is a multi-swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:USOILLong
by Tradu
GOLD recovers market overview, key outlookOANDA:XAUUSD is under downward pressure, and ended last week's trading session with a decline. With tensions in the Middle East easing slightly and the Federal Reserve giving a hawkish signal, the safe-haven demand in the gold market tends to weaken, and investors' profit-taking intentions increase, these are the main reasons why gold recorded a significant correction this week. Gold prices fell last week as safe-haven demand weakened as tensions in the Middle East temporarily eased. President Trump said he would decide on military action against Iran in the next two weeks, a concession that helped ease fears of an escalation. Although Iran continued to launch missiles at Israel, the situation has not spread. However, the Middle East conflict remains risky and is unlikely to end completely. Gold prices are under pressure due to the Fed's hawkish tone. Although the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, Chairman Powell warned of inflation risks, especially from Trump's new tax policies. At the same time, Mr. Chris Waller's statement showed that the possibility of a July interest rate cut also depends on the inflation situation, causing market expectations to decrease and negatively affecting gold - a non-interest-bearing asset. Central banks and institutions maintain bullish medium- and long-term expectations Despite short-term pressures, most institutions maintain positive medium-term expectations for gold. Goldman Sachs reiterated its target of $4,000/oz by 2025, while Citigroup believes gold could fall below $3,000/oz by 2026. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has once again bounced from the EMA21 and reached its initial upside target at the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement of $3,371, as noted in previous editions. For now, for gold to qualify for its next upside target at the raw price of $3,400, it needs to sustain price action above the 0.236% Fibonacci level, which means the 0.236% Fibonacci level is also the closest resistance at present. Once gold breaks above the raw price point of $3,400, it will be in a position to continue its short-term rally with a target of around $3,435, rather than the all-time high of $3,500. In terms of overall structure, gold still has a bullish outlook with the price channel as the main trend and RSI remaining above 50 and well away from the overbought zone, suggesting that there is still plenty of upside ahead. In the case of a sell-off, if gold is sold below the EMA21, it could test the $3,320 support in the short term, more so the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level converging with the lower edge of the price channel. Therefore, early long positions may be considered in terms of volume as well as protection of open positions. Finally, technically, gold is still trending with an overall bullish outlook, with notable positions listed as follows. Support: $3,350 – $3,320 – $3,300 Resistance: $3,371 – $3,400 – $3,435 – $3,500 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3406 - 3404⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3410 →Take Profit 1 3398 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3392 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3312 - 3314⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3308 →Take Profit 1 3320 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3326
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Gold Slumps Sharply – Has the Rate-Cut Hope Faded?Gold prices are under intense selling pressure after the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank, and the Federal Reserve all decided to keep interest rates elevated. This unified stance underscores persistent inflation concerns, driving up the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. As a result, investors rushed to take profits, sending XAUUSD down over 200 pips in just one session. Adding fuel to the fire, the Fed’s latest monetary policy report to Congress warned that inflation could rise to 3% by year-end, higher than previous projections. Moreover, the Fed trimmed expectations for rate cuts in 2025 and beyond, signaling a longer road to policy easing. 🔎 What does this mean for gold's short-term outlook? With high rates here to stay and the Fed's cautious stance, gold remains vulnerable to further downside in the near term. However, if upcoming U.S. economic data shows signs of significant weakness, gold may regain favor as a safe-haven asset. At the time of writing, XAUUSD is trading around $3,347, a critical zone that may determine whether the current drop continues or finds a bottom. Do you believe this dip will deepen—or is it a golden opportunity to buy the pullback? Share your thoughts below!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Kevinn_Nguyen
OIL: THE CHART THAT COULD TIP THE WORLDWTI Crude just bounced hard off the $65 channel support, tagging resistance at $76 — and what happens next isn’t just about price. It’s about power. Zoom into this chart: We're sitting at a directional pivot with two possible outcomes: 1️⃣ If this was a truncated 5th wave, the structure is complete. Any further war escalation could be the catalyst for oil to break resistance — dragging down risk assets, including CRYPTOCAP:BTC and equities. 2️⃣ If wave 5 isn’t done, we’ll likely see one more sharp leg down before oil launches. Either way, this is a high-stakes Elliott Wave setup with global macro consequences. Chart with FIB Levels: You'll see the wave I’ve marked (3) is messy, and on lower timeframes, that may hint at a truncated move worth watching. Why this matters: Over 20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint controlled by Iran. If conflict escalates, that line gets squeezed… and oil price explodes. Price to watch: $76 resistance. If oil breaks, the markets will react fast. If it fails, we might get one more correction and maybe some relief from the sideways pain we’ve seen across risk assets. Remember the COVID Crash? Oil literally went below zero in April 2020. That wasn't just a chart anomaly, it was a global demand collapse. Traders were paying to get rid of oil because there was nowhere to store it. That moment marked a generational low, and what followed was a powerful multi-year 5 wave up. Now look where we are: That same COVID low helped form the base of the current Elliott Wave structure. The fact we’re back testing levels that once sparked global panic is no coincidence. If you’ve been here before, you’ll see the signs. The charts always leave traces. And if this is the end of wave 5, it could be the start of a whole new macro move. TLDR: Stop trading headlines. Trade the structure. This chart is telling us everything.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE
by LisaNEdwards
XAUUSD M15 I Bearish ReversalBased on the M15 chart, the price is trading near our sell entry level at 3367-3365, a pullback resistance that aligns closely with the 38.2% Fib retracement. Our take profit is set at 3346.73, a pullback support. The stop loss is set at 3384.55, a pullback resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:XAUUSDShort
by Tradu
AUD/USD: The Clearest Short Opportunity This WeekThis week, the macro and market landscape provides a rare alignment across all major models—making AUD/USD the standout short opportunity among G10 FX pairs. Key Reasons for the Bearish AUD/USD Bias: 1. Commitment of Traders (COT): Institutional positioning has turned decisively bearish on the Australian dollar, with net shorts increasing and sentiment remaining negative. 2. Z-Score & Positioning Extremes: Z-Score indicators confirm a below-average long bias for AUD, highlighting that recent speculative flows are heavily skewed to the short side. 3. EXO/Score Model: Our EXO (macro scoring) model gives AUD/USD a clear SHORT rating, with no offsetting bullish factors in the “core” or “risk/reward” signals. 4. Commodity Edge – Iron Ore: Iron ore prices, a crucial driver for AUD, have sharply declined in recent weeks. This is a classic “canary in the coal mine” for AUD weakness historically, persistent iron ore declines precede broader AUD selloffs. 5. Sentiment & Risk Environment: Despite global “risk-on” sentiment, AUD is unable to benefit, as both macro and market participants rotate away from commodity FX and into USD strength. 6. Endo (Fundamental) Model: While Australia’s macro data still looks solid on a lagging basis, all faster models (positioning, flows, sentiment, commodities) point to an imminent shift typically, ENDO lags in catching turning points. Conclusion & Tactical View: SHORT AUD/USD is the highest conviction trade for this week, backed by full alignment of macro, positioning, sentiment, and real-economy factors. Expect continued downside pressure while commodity markets and COT data remain bearish. For active traders, the first 3–7 days following this setup historically provide the highest reward-to-risk moves.
Short
by Idealadvantage
Trump’s “ambiguous” statement, where will oil prices go? 💡Message Strategy Trump's remarks are repeated, and the geopolitical premium still limits the downward space of oil prices Trump said that the United States "may or may not" join Israel's actions against Iran. Analysts pointed out that if the United States is officially involved in the conflict, oil prices may rise by $5; if peace talks are launched, they may fall by the same amount. The geopolitical focus is still on the Strait of Hormuz Iran produces 3.3 million barrels of oil per day, but more importantly, about 19 million barrels of crude oil are transported through the Strait of Hormuz. The escalation of the conflict may threaten the safety of the waterway. The Fed's policy turn to dovish failed to effectively support oil prices Although the Fed hinted that it may cut interest rates twice this year, Chairman Powell emphasized that the decision still depends on inflation data, and Trump's upcoming new round of import tariffs may push up prices and limit the boost in oil demand brought about by loose policies. 📊Technical aspects From the daily chart level, crude oil prices in the medium term broke through the upper resistance of the range and tested a new high of 75.50. The moving average system is in a bullish arrangement, and the medium-term objective trend is in the direction. The current trend is in the upward rhythm of the main trend. The MACD indicator fast and slow lines overlap with the bullish column above the zero axis, indicating that the bullish momentum is currently full, and it is expected that the medium-term trend is expected to usher in a wave of rising rhythm. 💰Strategy Package Long Position:73.00-73.50，SL：72.50 The first target is around 75.50 The second target is around 76.50 If the situation in the Middle East escalates, the room for crude oil to rise will be enlarged
TVC:USOILLong
by TheodoreSilas
Weekly Market Forecast: Wait To Buy S&P, NAS, & OIL!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of June 22-28th. The tensions in the Middle East take center stage, as Iran has signaled they are willing to discuss limitations on there Uranium enrichment program. This could allow outflows from safe havens and inflows to risk assets. Keep and eye on Silver for shorts, in the near term, though. Let's see if the market tilts its hand early next week. Monday should bring clarity. Wait for confirmations before entering trades. A break of structure would be ideal! Enter on the pullback to that structure point. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by RT_Money
Gold Under Pressure – Will the 3,385 Zone Hold?Hello everyone, let’s dive into gold price action together! Following decisions from the Fed, BOE, and SNB to hold interest rates steady, gold continues to face downward pressure. High interest rates reflect a firm stance on inflation, pushing short-term capital away from non-yielding assets like gold. On the chart, gold closed the session near $3,368, showing little change from previous candles. The precious metal is still being rejected at a key confluence resistance zone (EMA 34, EMA 89, and a prior consolidation area). As long as price fails to break above $3,385, the downside scenario remains favored. If this resistance holds, my next move would be to sell, targeting a drop to $3,300—a zone where buyers previously stepped in. What about you? Do you see gold heading lower too?
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Edward_TradingFX
4
"XAUUSD – Hidden Strength Within the Accumulation Zone"Hello everyone, how are you currently evaluating XAUUSD? Yesterday, gold remained relatively stable without major volatility, yet continued to be supported by a favorable macro environment. Escalating tensions between Israel and Iran have sustained safe-haven demand. While the U.S. has yet to make a direct military move, President Trump’s emergency meeting and firm stance have increased market caution, which in turn boosted interest in gold. At the time of writing, gold is trading around $3,368, and the long-term trend still favors the bulls. But why do I say that? From both a technical and macro perspective, gold is in a healthy accumulation phase. Although it hasn’t broken above the record high, XAUUSD remains safely above key support zones — especially above the EMA 34 — which continues to affirm its bullish structure. EMA 34 remains a strong dynamic support, with a clear separation from EMA 89, reinforcing the momentum. Even if we see short-term pullbacks in the next few sessions, they are more likely technical retests rather than signs of reversal. Adding to that, the rising trendline, higher support levels, and bullish candlestick patterns all strengthen the case for continued upward movement. These combined factors paint a positive technical outlook for gold in the medium to long term. From my perspective, I remain confident in gold’s long-term uptrend. What about you? Feel free to share your thoughts!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Kevinn_Nguyen
Gold Outlook: 3 Critical Zones That Could Shape the Next Move▋Observation & Meanings: ▪Price has broken out of the Broadening Wedge to the upside — a strong move led by bulls. ▪It then pulled back after reaching the 100% projection of the previous upswing, which also marked the likely extent of the retracement. ▪A break below the minor low (a) suggests short-term downward pressure. ▪However, the overall uptrend structure remains intact as long as the main low (A) holds. ▋What’s next? Trading a retracement is always tricky — by nature, it means going against the prevailing trend. ▪ Question 1 : Is there anything to do when price falls below the minor low (a)? Often, the best move is to stay patient and let the market reveal its intentions, some setups may offer opportunities: ▫The main prior low could act as a key short-term support, as it aligns with the 100% retracement of the previous upswing. ▫For aggressive traders, a quick short toward that level may be an option. ▪ Question 2 : When will a new trend begin? ▫Bearish scenario: A confirmed break below the main prior low could signal the start of a more sustainable downtrend. ▫Bullish scenario: Aside from Aside from (1) a direct breakout above the previous high (B), signs of strength may also come from: (2) A clear lower high or (3) A consolidation range, followed by a strong upside break. In this case : - The prior high (by definition) marks resistance. - However, there’s also a tight congestion area before that high, which may act as the real barrier — potentially even more significant due to its cluster of price action. ▫Once early trend signals appear, the next step is to assess if the structure supports a lasting trend. ▋The 3 big zones: ▪ Uptrend Zone The market is likely regaining upward momentum when one of the following occurs: 1. Price spikes above the previous swing high at point B. 2. Price breaks the tight congestion area to the upside. 3. A new consolidation range forms and breaks to the upside. ▪ Downtrend Zone A clean break below the main prior low (A) would likely confirm bearish control and may open room for further downside. ▪ Ambiguous Zone If price fails to meet the conditions for either an uptrend or a downtrend, it’s likely to remain in a drifting, indecisive state. ▋Mental Notes: ▪Don’t predict the price, trade the price. Have a plan, but not blindly follow. ▪The market will always find ways to surprise. Stay open and follow the flow. ▋Not Financial Advice The information contained in this article is not intended as, and should not be understood as financial advice. You should take independent financial advice from a professional who is aware of the facts and circumstances of your individual situation.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by stock_adelie
Gold Eyes $3486 as Middle East Tensions Spark Flight to SafetyGOLD | Set to Surge Amid Escalating Geopolitical Tensions Gold prices are poised for a sharp rally as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensify, following reports of a U.S. airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities. This has triggered a strong flight-to-safety response, pushing investors toward safe-haven assets. Analysts now forecast a broader upside range, with gold potentially trading between $3,500 and $3,700, driven by both geopolitical instability and persistent inflation concerns. Technical Outlook: Gold is expected to open with a bullish gap, with an initial move toward the key resistance at 3404. A confirmed 1H/4H close above this level would open the path toward 3448, and ultimately 3486, as long as geopolitical risk remains elevated. However, any signs of de-escalation or negotiations from Iran could halt the bullish momentum and trigger a reversal toward 3340. Key Levels: • Pivot Zone: 3365, 3379 • Resistance: 3404, 3448, 3486 • Support: 3348, 3339, 3281
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SroshMayi
Oil panic buying after Iran Strikes?President Donald Trump has confirmed that the U.S., in coordination with Israel, has conducted three strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Will there be panic buying of WTI and Brent at the open? In response, Iran’s parliament has approved a proposal to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route. The final decision lies with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. If a blockade is enforced, oil prices could rise sharply. ClearView Energy Partners estimates a short-term closure could add between $8 and $31 per barrel. JP Morgan has suggested that a full-scale conflict and complete shutdown could drive prices to $130.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets
Can 6 Holes in a mountain move gold this week? 23-27 June 2025Hello fellow traders of OANDA:XAUUSD All about last week here Since Israel's attack on Iran on Friday, June 13th, aimed at destroying all facilities for potential nuclear weapons production, the gold price initially rose to $3450. This surge lasted until Monday, June 16th, during the European session, but then began to fall from there. 📉🔻 Signs of potential peace talks and a swift end to the conflict largely made investors hesitant to invest. Throughout the week, the gold price mostly reacted negatively to higher prices due to investor uncertainty. This was further exacerbated by the fact that the US had not yet entered this war, which Israel initiated. 🕊️😟 However, since the US attack with bunker-busting bombs on the nuclear facilities on June 21st, they are now part of the conflict. Not least for this reason, they might become the target of retaliatory strikes, as already announced by the Iranian regime. 💣💥 If one looks at the timeline of news and announcements regarding potential US involvement in this war, and the two-week waiting period announced by President Trump, it will certainly become clear that this was nothing more than tactics. It was foreseeable that the US would become involved in the conflict, not least because the Israelis lack the appropriate weapons. The possibility of the US providing these weapons to the Israelis was also in the news; however, it then became clear that this specific bomb could only be used by the Stealth Bomber B2. This made it evident that it was only a matter of timing when it would happen, and they naturally wanted to keep that secret – anything else would be nonsensical anyway. 🤫✈️ What's to be expected next? Regarding this conflict, I hope for a swift end. 🕊️🙏 As for the gold price, well, I still believe in a new All-Time High (ATH). 🚀🌟 Will it come this week? Possibly. But the much more important question is whether the Iranian regime will truly dare to attack the US and exact revenge. 🤔⚔️ Market Structure: The chart shows a clear shift from bullish 🐂 to bearish 🐻 structure. We see a significant high around June 13th at approximately $3,451, followed by a break of structure with lower highs and lower lows forming. 📉 Key Levels: 🔑 Premium levels: The area around $3,440-$3,451 represents premium pricing where institutional selling likely occurred. 💎 Fair Value Gaps: There appear to be several imbalances/gaps that price may seek to fill, particularly around the $3,380-$3,400 zone. 🎯 Order Blocks: The consolidation areas around $3,320-$3,340 and $3,380-$3,400 represent potential institutional order blocks. 🧱 Institutional Levels: 🏦 Psychological resistance: $3,450 level acted as significant resistance. 🚧 Current support cluster: $3,320-$3,340 area showing multiple touches. 🛡️ Liquidity zones: The recent lows around $3,293 represent buy-side liquidity that institutions may target. 💧 Fibonacci Analysis: 📏 Based on the major swing from the low around June 9th ($3,300) to the high on June 13th ($3,451): 50% retracement: ~$3,375 (already tested and failed) 📉 61.8% retracement: ~$3,357 (near current price action) ✨ 78.6% retracement: ~$3,337 (aligns with support cluster) ✅ Gann Concepts: 🔢 The timing shows potential significance around the June 13th high, with subsequent price action following geometric price relationships. The current price action around $3,328 suggests we're testing important Gann square relationships from the cycle highs. 📐 Cycle Timing: ⏰ The approximately 10-day cycle from low to high to current retracement suggests we may be in a corrective phase that could extend into late June, with potential for cycle lows around the June 25-27 timeframe based on typical precious metals cycles. 🗓️ Current Assessment: Price appears to be in a corrective phase testing the $3,320-$3,340 institutional support zone. A break below could target the cycle lows, while a hold here with reclaim of $3,380 could indicate accumulation for the next leg higher. ⚖️🔍 Please take the time to let me know what you think about this. 💬 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly. Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Wick-Sniper