BRIEFING Week #3 : Peak Stupidity ?Here's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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Phil
Commodities
SILVER Trading Opportunity! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
SILVER looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 30.376 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 30.638
About Used Indicators:
The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Natural Gas Bullish OpportunityWhy the Bullish Sentiment?
🌬 Cold Weather Incoming: Frigid forecasts are set to spike heating demand, boosting natural gas consumption.
🌍 Global LNG Demand: International markets, particularly Europe and Asia, are tightening the supply, fueling upward pressure.
📉 Lower Storage Levels: US inventories are running below the 5-year average, creating a potential supply crunch.
⚠️ Geopolitical Tensions: Supply concerns in Europe continue to drive bullish sentiment, making natural gas an attractive play.
With all these factors aligning, the stage is set for a potential rally! 📈
Entry: 3.40 USD.
Take Profit Levels:
🎯 Take Profit 1: 3.49 USD
🎯 Take Profit 2: 3.61 USD
🏆 Take Profit 3: 3.81 USD
Stop Loss: Set your safety net at 3.25 USD, just below the support level. 🛡
Where do you think Natural Gas will go?
Gold Price Facing Resistance After Channel Breakhello guys!
Broken Channel:
The price recently broke out of a rising channel, signaling a potential shift in trend. Following the breakout, it retested the broken channel boundary, indicating that this level now acts as resistance.
Double Top Formation:
A double-top pattern can be observed near the upper resistance zone around $2,710–$2,730, suggesting that the price struggled to maintain upward momentum. This is a bearish signal, implying a potential reversal in the near term.
Middle Line of the Larger Channel:
The price touched the middle line of the larger upward channel before retracing, highlighting the importance of this level as a key resistance zone.
Potential Path:
if the price fails to break above the resistance zone ($2,710–$2,730), it could decline sharply toward the next support levels around $2,580 and $2,540.
Bitcoin & Gold: Weekly Options Trading Recap
Gold: 🌟 The entire past week saw a positive trend in gold trading, characterized by a continuous accumulation of vertical call spreads targeting $2925-$2950. On Friday, higher targets around $2990-$3000 were added, with expiration in August of this year. The sentiment remains positive. However, volatility increased last week and remains at a relatively high level, indicating potential turbulence in the precious metals market.
Bitcoin: 💰 Interesting portfolios aiming for $120,000-$140,000 have been observed in Bitcoin trading. These portfolios emerged on January 16 when Bitcoin was around $99,000. Within a couple of days, Bitcoin surged by 6.8% and broke the previous high around $102,500.
Silver Breakout? or FakeoutMetals look to have tailwinds with bonds finding support (real rates coming off), DXY stabilising, and the incoming trump administration. The charts are constructive with possible early breakouts. If upward momentum continues then price will likely target recent highs and then possibly higher after consolidation or pullback.
Possible risks to trade include resumption of bond decline with rising real rates and USD strength.
THE 2ND TRADE OF THE DAY TO HIT THE STOPAs I posted on the post on NASDAQ earlier, this is our 2nd trade of the day to reach our stop and to be in loss after we made a profitable one on OIL which I will link to this post below.
You can check them and read what I explained in NASDAQ's post about how to stick to your plan and not let your emotions take over your trading.
Follow for more!
OUR TRADE TODAY ON OILToday, we took 3 trades, A profitable and 2 in loss.
I will share the 3 of them so I share with you the other side of trading with only few people show which is losses.
Our trade on OIL went as expected, but the other one on NASDAQ and GOLD didn't go as planned which left me and my clients with couple $ up. And that's normal since we're still in profit on the weekly and monthly basis.
Follow for more!
LUCMF Asymmetric Trade PossibilityLuca Mining Corporation high reward:ratio — multi-month swing trade Here we have an asymmetric trade potential on LUCMF. Price has broken a long term downtrend and seems to have been creating a reversal pattern in the form of an inverse head and shoulders, as many silver miners are currently doing. This same pattern is not only present on most miners, but on the silver futures or spot charts themselves, in which silver has already broken out of; seemingly following the exact pattern of gold, in the handle portion of its cup and handle In this sense, it is safe to assume the miners are lagging silver in such a way that silver has been lagging gold — same exact pattern just slightly late to the party — this gives traders a “second chance” at catching the move in which silver is currently completing — in the miners
Long term target: $1.65.
Speculative entry point — any price above .45 in case of a false breakout
Conservative entry point — any price above the neckline breakout level (you can adjust this lower according to your risk tolerance as many smaller cap miners often produce false breakdowns)
I suspect there will be a false breakdown after seemingly confirming the breakout, which may warrant a liberal stop loss according to your personal risk preference
GOLD - 15 min ( Best Buy And Sell Scalping After Break ) In the context of Gold trading via FXCM, significant technical levels have been identified on the 15-minute time frame. A bullish outlook is established following a breakout through the key level of 2713.5, notably accompanied by high trading volume. Conversely, a bearish sentiment emerges if the price breaches the key level of 2703, also supported by substantial volume. It is imperative to note that our analysis is grounded in precision rather than numerical approximations, ensuring the provision of the most accurate trading opportunities.
⚡️GOLD / FXCM
Best Break Our / Key level's 15m Tf
🚨Bullish After Break Out key level + High Volume / 2713.5 Point
🚨Bearish After Break Out key level + High Volume / 2703 Point
⚡️ We Only Sent Most Accurate Opportunity and Analysis 💲 Not by Number ..+
GOLD - Potential Bearish Rejection at ResistanceGold is approaching a key resistance zone, which aligns with the upper boundary of the ascending channel. This area has the potential to act as a strong barrier, leading to a bearish pullback if sellers regain control.
A rejection at this resistance could push the price back toward the $2,698-$2,700 level. If this level holds, it may provide a base for buyers to attempt another rally.
However, a failure to hold above the $2,698 level could signal further bearish momentum, potentially targeting lower areas within the channel. Traders should watch for confirmation, such as bearish candlestick patterns or strong rejection wicks, at the resistance zone.
XAUUSD, EXCACTLY AS PLANNED IN OUR LAST POSTTechnical Analysis:
XAU/USD (Gold) has shown strong bullish momentum, trading comfortably above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which signal a sustained uptrend. The price recently broke a key resistance level at $1,950, which now acts as strong support. Momentum indicators like the RSI are in bullish territory but remain below overbought levels, suggesting room for further upside. The MACD histogram is widening, indicating increasing bullish momentum.
The next key resistance lies at $2,000, a psychological level, followed by $2,030, a recent multi-month high. A confirmed break above $2,000 could set the stage for a move toward $2,050. On the downside, support at $1,950 and $1,920 will be critical to watch for any potential retracement.
Fundamental Analysis:
Gold's bullish outlook is driven by a combination of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Concerns over global economic slowdown, persistent geopolitical tensions, and central banks maintaining high levels of gold reserves are supporting safe-haven demand.
In the U.S., softer inflation data and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve have weakened the dollar, making gold more attractive for international buyers. Additionally, Treasury yields have started to stabilize, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
Furthermore, with the Chinese economy showing signs of recovery and increased demand for physical gold from Asia, gold prices are expected to remain well-supported in the near term. Central bank buying also continues to provide a long-term tailwind for prices.
Key Catalysts to Watch:
U.S. economic data, particularly inflation and labor market reports.
Fed policy updates and FOMC meeting minutes.
Developments in geopolitical hotspots that could spur safe-haven flows.
Demand trends from major gold-importing countries like China and India.
Oil Market: WTI Barrel Faces the $78 BarrierOver the past two sessions, the price of crude oil has dropped more than 2%. This decline coincides with the Israeli Prime Minister reaching a ceasefire agreement in Gaza. The temporary peace deal has been perceived as favorable for oil production, as it eliminates a geopolitical conflict that could have disrupted operations in the Middle East. As a result, production expectations have risen, contributing to downward pressure on crude prices.
Uptrend
The WTI crude market has maintained a steady upward trend since early December 2024. However, the most recent bullish peak showed significant momentum, which could signal the emergence of bearish corrections in the price.
MACD Indicator
The MACD and signal lines remain bullish but have begun to exhibit a negative slope. Additionally, the histogram has fallen to a fully neutral position around the 0 line of the indicator. These developments suggest a potential exhaustion of previous bullish momentum, creating opportunities for bearish movements.
RSI Indicator
The RSI line remains close to the overbought territory, hovering near the 70 level. Any future movements that revisit this level could increase the likelihood of short-term bearish corrections.
Key Levels
$78: This is the current resistance level, coinciding with the highs from August 2024. Sustained moves above this level could strengthen the bullish outlook and potentially accelerate the ongoing uptrend.
$72: A crucial support zone where bearish corrections are likely to see significant activity. Moves near or below this level could jeopardize the formation of the current upward channel.
By Julian Pineda, CFA - Market Analyst
Analysis of the latest trend of gold market:
Analysis of gold news: Spot gold rebounded slightly during the U.S. trading session on Thursday (January 16). The price of gold fell nearly $30 from the one-month high hit last Friday on Monday. The lowest intraday price hit $2,656.73/ounce and closed at $2,662.83/ounce. Last week's strong employment report consolidated the Fed's expectations of cautious interest rate cuts this year. The U.S. dollar rose sharply to the highest level in more than two years, and the U.S. Treasury yield hit a high of more than eight months, which blocked the gold price at the 2,700 mark. In addition, the breakthrough in the Gaza ceasefire mediation also suppressed the safe-haven demand for gold. The U.S. employment report released last Friday highlighted the strong momentum of the economy and made the outlook of the Federal Reserve unclear. The U.S. dollar index rose to 110.17, the highest since November 2022, during trading on Monday, but gave up its gains in late trading, and reported a weekly report of 109.59, a drop of about 0.05%. Trump will be sworn in as the President of the United States next week. The tariffs and protectionist policies he proposed are expected to stimulate inflation and may trigger a trade war, thereby increasing the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset. People familiar with the matter revealed that the economic team of US President-elect Donald Trump is discussing slowly raising tariffs month by month to increase bargaining chips in a step-by-step manner while trying to avoid a surge in inflation. This has slightly cooled the market's concerns. The US December PPI data will be released this trading day, and several Federal Reserve officials will give speeches. Investors need to pay attention to them. In addition, investors need to pay attention to news related to the geopolitical situation.
Gold technical analysis: Gold's two consecutive positive daily lines have recovered the previous decline. It has re-touched the 2700 integer mark and closed at a high level at the end of the trading day. The probability of breaking today has increased. At present, the daily line structure has driven the moving average indicator to turn upward to form support, and the daily line structure has begun to change to a bullish upward trend. The daily line closed positive, and there is still a high point today. The daily support is near 2678, if it reaches it, you can go long. The Asian early trading session pulled back to 2692 and opened higher, proving that the market is still very strong. The current price of gold is close to resistance at 2719, so we will not chase it. If there is a signal above 2719, we can consider going short first. There is nothing to analyze today. Gold is bullish but cannot chase the rise.
In the bullish rising channel of the 4-hour chart of gold, the step-up rising channel is formed based on the low point of 2655. If the low point is not broken, the bulls will not change, although the process is slow. But the overall situation remains in a fluctuating rise. The 1-hour moving average of gold has entered the golden cross upward pattern again. The gold price has moved sideways and upward in the Asian session at 2685. The basic idea and direction are the same as those on Wednesday. As long as the decline stabilizes, we can continue to look at the bullish market. The market will break through 2720 points and form a new high. On the whole, our senior professional gold analyst team recommends that the short-term operation of gold today is mainly long on the pullback, supplemented by short on the rebound. The short-term focus on the upper side is 2726-2731 resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is 2700-2695 support.
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Great finish to the week with our analysis playing out perfectly. Yesterday we shared our update of the 1H chart idea with our targets all complete and today we follow up on our 4H chart idea.
We got our Bullish target at 2694 complete, which followed with ema5 lock above 2694 opening the range above, all the way into 2726. We got a nice push up clearing over 300 pips and just a few pips short of 2726, which can be considered, as done. Smashing finish to the week!!!
We will now come back Sunday with our updated Multi time-frame analysis, Gold route map and trading plans for the week ahead.
Have a smashing weekend!! And once again, thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Gold at Resistance Zone>Technical Patterns>Potential DropThe U.S. economic Indexes released on January 16, 2025 , have implications for Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ):
Core Retail Sales m/m : ncreased by 0.4% , slightly below the 0.5% forecast, indicating moderate consumer spending.
Retail Sales m/m : Rose by 0.4% , under the expected 0.6%, suggesting a potential economic slowdown.
Unemployment Claims : Reached 217,000 , higher than the anticipated 210,000, pointing to a softening labor market.
These factors may lead to a weaker U.S. dollar and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, potentially driving gold prices higher.
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Now let's take a look at the Gold chart in the 4-hour time frame and see how much Technical Analysis can help us predict the trend of Gold in the coming hours and days.
Gold is moving in the Resistance zone($2,743-$2,700) and near the Upper line of the Ascending Channel , the upper lines of the Rising Wedge Pattern and Time Reversal Zone(TRZ) .
In terms of Classic Technical Analysis , Gold appears to be moving within the Rising Wedge Pattern .
According to Elliott's wave theory , Gold appears to be completing microwave C of the main wave Y . The wave count will change if the Resistance zone($2,743-$2,700) breaks .
Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks .
I expect Gold to start falling at least the Support zone($2,697-$2,689) and the lower line of the ascending channel after entering the TRZ and touching the upper line of the ascending channel and the wedge pattern.
Note: If Gold can break the Resistance zone($2,743-$2,700), we can expect an All-Time High(ATH) for Gold.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 4-hour time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-17-25 : Gap Up Higher PatternToday's pattern is a Gap Up Higher in Counter Trend mode.
I believe this pattern would have resulted in a Gap Down Lower price trend related to the counter-trend setup. But it looks like the foreign markets drove the SPY/QQQ higher.
The obvious disruption to the SPY Cycle Patterns recently has come from the post-election concerns and the expectations of a broader credit/debt market crisis (which seems to be subsiding).
I believe we have to get past the Inauguration before we'll be able to see if the markets attempt to establish any defined price trend or continue to trade in a sideways price mode.
Gold and Silver are struggling to muscle higher - which I believe is the likely outcome for metals.
BTCUSD has moved back above $100k - but may struggle above the downward-sloping price channel.
Overall, at this point, I would suggest traders pull profits on any trades they have open as we move into the new Trump Administration and a slew of new EOs and new policies that may disrupt the markets.
We are very likely going to see some new price volatility over the next 30+ days.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Silver could rise above 32 (1500+ pips target)In my previous analysis on OANDA:XAGUSD , I noted that the lack of bearish continuation following the break below the 30 level suggested a high likelihood of a false breakout.
I anticipated that the price would most likely reverse to the upside, and this scenario has played out as expected.
After breaking back above the 30 level and successfully retesting it, XAG/USD is now holding steadily above this important support.
Additionally, the price has broken out of the falling wedge pattern by moving above the descending trendline.
The morning star candlestick formation observed two days ago further reinforces the bullish outlook.
Adding to the positive sentiment, a strong close today could result in a continuation pin bar on the weekly chart, further supporting upward momentum.
In conclusion, the strategy remains to buy on dips, with an ideal entry around 30.30 and a target at the technical resistance above 32.
Gold will little correct and then to continue grow in channelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. The chart shows how the price entered to seller zone, where it reached the mirror line and then dropped to the buyer zone, breaking the 2710 level. After this, the price bounced up from the buyer zone but soon corrected back. Then Gold made a strong upward impulse to the seller zone, breaking the mirror line again. In the seller zone, the price started to decline inside the downward pennant, where it broke the 2710 level one more time and fell to the support line of this pattern, breaking the support level too. Gold some time traded below the support level and later it exited from the pennant pattern, reached this level, and broke it, after which continued to grow. When the price reached 2662 points, the price corrected the buyer zone and then started to grow inside the upward channel. In the channel, Gold rose to the resistance line and then corrected to the support line, after which continued to move up to the resistance level. Recently price reached this level and even try to break it, but failed. For this moment, I think that Gold can correct to support line of the channel and then rise to the resistance level back. After this, XAU can break this level and continue to move up inside the channel. For this case, I set my TP at 2740 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
GOLD - Price can break support level and fall to $2660 pointsHi guys, this is my overview for BTCUSDT, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
A not long time ago price entered to wedge, where it at once made an upward impulse to resistance line, breaking $2695 level.
Next, price in a short time declined to support line, breaking $2695 level again and then exiting from a wedge.
After this, price fell below $2625 level and started to grow in a rising channel, where it traded between $2625 level.
Later, Gold broke this level and rose a little, after which made correction and then continued to grow.
Price reached $2695 level, but at once made a small correction, after which backed up and broke this level.
At the moment, I think that Gold can start to decline from resistance line of a channel to $2660, breaking support level.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Institutional Supply: XAU/USD shortsHey,
One of the key charts that I am focused at is GOLD.
As you can see at the chart, price is moving towards a key supply area.
It's a very basic chart, but simple works and keeps us consistent.
I'll be looking at GOLD short plays when the zone is reached...
And when the 4-hour shapes up.
Kind regards,
Max Nieveld