GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Dec 16 - Dec 20]At the beginning of this week, OANDA:XAUUSD quite strongly from 2,627 USD/oz to 2,726 USD/oz, but then dropped sharply to 2,645 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,648 USD/oz.
The reason why international gold prices increased sharply in the first sessions of this week was because investors reacted to the fact that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) returned to buying 5 tons of gold in November after many months of temporarily stopping buying. reserve gold. Even with the six-month hiatus, the PBoC bought 34 tons of gold this year and remains one of the top central banks buying gold in 2024.
However, gold currently accounts for less than 6% of China's total foreign exchange reserves. This shows that the PBoC's room to continue buying gold reserves is still very large, especially when US-China tensions are increasingly escalating when President-elect Donald Trump threatens to impose very high tariffs on China.
However, after rising to 2,726 USD/oz earlier this week, gold prices once again fell sharply because US inflation remained persistent, affecting expectations of the FED's monetary easing cycle.
While the decision on FED monetary policy will receive more attention next Wednesday, the gold market will also receive important economic data that can impact the FED's monetary easing cycle, such as retail sales, revised third quarter GDP of the US...
📌Technically, the gold price still maintains an uptrend on the Daily technical chart, as the price is still above the EMA89 moving average. However, on the H4 chart, the movement of the moving average shows that the price is accumulating sideways, the resistance area to pay attention to is around the 2725 mark, while the important support zone is around the round resistance mark of 2600. In the coming week Many influential information can cause gold prices to fluctuate strongly beyond this sideways range.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,644 – 2,634USD
Resistance: 2,663 – 2,676 – 2,693USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2751 - 2749⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2755
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2579 - 2581⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2575
Commodities
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 2666and a gap below at 2645. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2666
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2666 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2682
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2682 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2697
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2697 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2719
BEARISH TARGETS
2645
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2645 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2628
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2628 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2606 - 2586
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 4h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing ema5 play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 2693 and a gap below at 2656, which is already done with candle body close but need ema5 to cross and lock below to confirm the move further down. Weighted Goldturns will need ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2693
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2693 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2726
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2726 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2765
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2765 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2795
BEARISH TARGETS
2656- DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2656 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2613
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2613 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2561 - 2519
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD DAILY CHART MID/LONG TERM UPDATEHey Everyone,
Please see the daily chart update we have been trading and tracking for a while now, to give you all an overall view of the range.
After completing a nice run of bull targets over the last few months, we last updated this chart stating we were playing between two weighted levels 2629 and 2686 and 2629 was still providing support with no ema5 lock below leaving a the gap open again at 2686.
2686 was hit again last week completing this target one again with no further lock above 2686 confirming the rejection for the move down.
We will continue to see play between 2629 and 2686 until we see a break with ema5 lock to confirm the next range.
We will use our smaller timeframe analysis on the 1H and 4H chart to buy dips from the weighted Goldturns for 30 to 40 pips clean. Ranging markets are perfectly suited for this type of trading, instead of trying to hold longer positions and getting chopped up in the swings up and down in the range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up using our smaller timeframe ideas.
Our long term bias is Bullish and therefore we look forward to drops like this, which allows us to continue to use our smaller timeframes to buy dips using our levels and setups.
Buying dips allows us to safely manage any swings rather then chasing the bull from the top.
Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD MONTHLY CHART LONG TERM/RANGE ROUTE MAPHey Everyone,
Please see update on our monthly chart idea for our long term/range analysis that we last updated last week on month start.
Last week we stated that this month also started with a detachment to ema5 below for a correction, which was nearly completed and can be pulled up to complete, also highlighted with a small mini circle on the charts for visual purpose.
- This detachment to ema5 was completed perfectly.
We also stated that the area above 2589 is a strong level of support with ema5 providing dynamic support now for a bounce.
- This also played out perfectly with ema5 providing dynamic support and above our 2589 support level for the push up, perfectly hitting our axis target 2702.
We will wait for month end to look for a body close above 2702for a further continuation or if momentum allows to compete the axis targets above before hand.
However, we will keep in mind the channel top that may require a support test. We will continue to use all support structures, across all our multi time frame chart ideas to buy dips also keeping in mind our long term gaps above. Short term we may look bearish but looking at the monthly chart allows us to see the bigger picture and the overall long term Bullish trend.
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD (XAUUSD): Support & Resistance Analysis For Next Week
Here is my latest structure analysis
and important supports and resistances for Gold for next week.
Support 1: 2648 - 2666 area
Support 2: 2605 - 2625 area
Support 3: 2536 - 2563 area
Resistance 1: 2718 - 2732 area
Resistance 2: 2787 - 2789 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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Gold Is Approaching An Important SupportHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring XAUUSD for a buying opportunity around 2635 zone, Gold is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 2635 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
SILVER IS BULLISH TO $34!Silver Long / buy idea
On high timeframes monthly & weekly silver is bullish and currently at a higher low which also aligns very nicely with a strong support level which is being rejected.
On the daily timeframe the SMA's have crossed and the market does look to have pulled back and is currently rejected that price level which is good confluence that the trend is changing on the lower time frames to a bullish trend, which again is confluence of a bullish market due to the overall trend being bullish as shown on higher time frames
On the daily & 4hr the fib also aligns very nicely with other technical factors, the market has touched the 61.8% retracement level and looks to be rejecting that area.
The fib gives a target price of $34 which is slightly under the ATH. I would st stop at around $29 to give some protection from the support level, if price does pull back down then the support is there to act as a barrier to rebound the market and stop us from bing stopped out.
1:4 RR on this trade with a potential 12% ROI.
GBPUSD - Nothing Can Stop It, It's All The Way Up!Here we have the monthly chart for GBPUSD.
GBPUSD 'recently' completed a major ending diagonal. We know this as it was a 5 wave pattern in the form of a wedge. Now that the bottom is in, we're expecting multiyear bullish price action.
Wave 1 can be an impulse or a leading diagonal. For GBPUSD, we are seeing a clear leading diagonal pattern = 5 waves.
We are anticipating one final move up to complete wave 1 and then we'll be seeing a wave 2 correction (as shown in the chart)
Trade Idea: Trading the 5th wave of the Leading Diagonal
- Watch for bullish price action to appear
- Confirmations such as trendline break or BOS can be used to gain an entry
- Once entered, put stops below wave 4
- Target: 1.36 (1,100pips)
Once wave 1 leading diagonal is complete, we'll be back with an update!
If this post gets enough engagement, we'll post lower timeframe charts.
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
GOLD Will Collapse! SELL!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on GOLD and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 2689.1 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 2657.2
Safe Stop Loss - 2708.9
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USOIL: Bearish Continuation & Short Signal
USOIL
- Classic bearish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell USOIL
Entry - 71.02
Stop - 71.82
Take - 69.48
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
GOLD Trading Opportunity! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for GOLD is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 2648.6
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 2675.4
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Multiday OHLC IndicatorMulti-Day OHLC Indicator (Private Access)
This is a custom Multi-Day OHLC (Open, High, Low, Close) indicator designed to identify key price levels based on the daily price action. By calculating and plotting these critical price points, it helps you spot important support and resistance zones, as seen in the chart above.
The indicator helps traders to:
• Identify significant price levels based on recent multi-day price action.
• Spot potential reversal points and trade setups when price approaches key zones.
• Make informed decisions by visualizing multi-day price data on a single timeframe.
This indicator is private and free of cost. If you’d like access to it, feel free to request access, and I’ll grant you the privilege to use this powerful tool for your trading.
Multiday OHLC IndicatorMulti-Day OHLC Indicator (Private Access)
This is a custom Multi-Day OHLC (Open, High, Low, Close) indicator designed to identify key price levels based on the daily price action. By calculating and plotting these critical price points, it helps you spot important support and resistance zones, as seen in the chart above.
The indicator helps traders to:
• Identify significant price levels based on recent multi-day price action.
• Spot potential reversal points and trade setups when price approaches key zones.
• Make informed decisions by visualizing multi-day price data on a single timeframe.
This indicator is private and free of cost. If you’d like access to it, feel free to request access, and I’ll grant you the privilege to use this powerful tool for your trading.
The Importance of Stop Loss and Emotional Discipline in TradingThe Importance of Stop Loss and Emotional Discipline in Trading
“The market doesn’t care about your emotions; it follows its own rules.”
One of the most critical aspects of successful trading is setting a stop loss and sticking to it. Here's why:
Protect Your Capital
Trading without a stop loss is like driving without brakes. A stop loss helps limit your losses and keeps your trading capital safe for future opportunities.
Stay Disciplined
Many traders make the mistake of moving their stop loss further away out of fear of being stopped out. This is a slippery slope that can lead to even larger losses. Stick to your plan, no matter what.
Remove Emotions from Trading
Fear and greed are your worst enemies. By predefining your stop loss, you eliminate emotional decision-making in the heat of the moment.
Focus on Risk Management
Before entering a trade, always ask yourself:
What’s my risk-reward ratio?
How much am I willing to lose if the trade goes against me?
Learn to Accept Losses
Losses are a natural part of trading. A stop loss isn’t a failure; it’s a tool to protect you and keep you in the game for the long term.
Key Tip:
Never remove your stop loss hoping the market will “come back.” Hope is not a strategy—discipline and planning are.
Let your emotions stay out of your trades. Protect your capital, trade your plan, and let the market do the rest.
Gold can correct and then continue to grow to resistance levelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. By observing the chart, we can see that the price some days ago fell to the support level, which coincided with the buyer zone and started to grow inside a broadening wedge. In this pattern, the price rose to the resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone and even broke it, after which continued to grow to the resistance line of the wedge pattern. After this, Gold made a correction to the seller zone and then in a short time backed up to the resistance line, but soon turned around and started to decline. Gold quickly fell lower the 2720 level, breaking it and also it exiting from a broadening wedge pattern. Then the price continued to fall and later reached the 2605 support level and even broke it too, after which made a retest and continued to fall to 2535 points. Later XAU turned around and started to grow inside the upward pennant, where it in a short time rose to a resistance level, breaking the 2605 support level, but then Gold made a downward impulse. After this, the price fell to the support line, but a not long time ago it exited from the pennant pattern and now continues to grow. In my mind, Gold can make a move down and then continue to rise to the 2720 resistance level. So, that's why I set my TP at this level. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
USOIL Will Go Down! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for USOIL.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 71.095.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 70.000 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
How to Identify Significant Liquidity Zone in Gold Trading
A liquidity zone is a specific area on a price chart where the market orders concentrate.
In this article, I will teach you how to identify the most significant liquidity zones on Gold chart beyond historical levels.
Liquidity Zones
First, in brief, let's discuss where liquidity concentrates.
Market liquidity concentrates on:
1. Psychological levels
Above, you can see a clear concentration of liquidity around a 2500 psychological level on Gold price chart.
2. Fibonacci levels
In the example above, we can see how 382 retracement of a major bullish impulse attracts market liquidity on Gold XAUUSD daily time frame.
3. Horizontal support and resistance levels and trend lines.
In that case, an area based on a classic support/resistance level was a clear source of market liquidity on Gold.
Significant Liquidity Zone
A significant liquidity zone will be the area where psychological levels, Fibonacci levels, horizontal support and resistance levels and trend lines match .
Please, note that such an area may combine the indicators, or any other technical tools.
Such zones can be easily found even beyond the historic levels.
Look at a price chart on Gold on a daily.
Though the market has just updated the ATH, we can spot the next potentially significant liquidity zone with technical analysis.
We see a perfect intersection of a rising trend line, 2600 psychological level based on round numbers and a Fibonacci extension confluence of 2 recent bullish impulses.
These technical tools will compose a significant liquidity zone.
The idea is that Gold was rallying up because of the excess of demand on the market. We will assume that selling orders will be placed within that liquidity zone and the excess of demand will be absorbed by the supply.
It will make the price AT LEAST stop growing and potentially will trigger a correctional movement.
Learn to recognize such liquidity zones, it will help you a lot in predicting Gold price movements.
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Geopolitical tensions will lead to gold strengtheningGold is trading in an ascending channel drawn by the Andrews fork. The support level of $2,646 acts as a critical point, and if it holds, there is a possibility of a rise to the resistance level of $2,702.
Technical and fundamental analysis
1- Technical analysis: The price is close to the lower Bollinger band and is likely to return to higher levels.
2- Geopolitical tensions: Increased tensions in the Middle East have increased demand for gold.
3- Weakness of the dollar: The decline in the dollar index and possible Federal Reserve policies have worked in favor of gold.
Conclusion
Holding the $2,646 level is essential for the bullish trend to continue, and any increase in geopolitical tensions could push the price towards $2,702.
Gold is nearing the retrace area.Hey Traders, In today's session we’re closely monitoring Gold for a potential buying opportunity around the 2655 zone. The price has broken through the 2655 resistance and is now in a corrective phase, approaching a key retracement area.
Stay vigilant and trade wisely!
– Joe
xauusd analysis for mondayTechnical Analysis
Key Levels:
Support:
Primary Support: $2,630–$2,640, a crucial level that has consistently held over the past weeks.
Secondary Support: A breakdown below $2,630 could lead to further declines toward $2,600 and $2,570
Resistance:
Primary Resistance: $2,670–$2,700, a zone gold must clear to confirm bullish momentum.
Extended Target: A sustained move above $2,700 could push gold toward $2,720 or higher, with the long-term target near $2,750
Price Action:
Gold has been consolidating around $2,650, indicating indecision in the market. Traders are awaiting a catalyst for a breakout in either direction
Indicators:
RSI: Neutral, indicating no overbought or oversold conditions.
Moving Averages: Gold is trading near its 50-day moving average, reflecting a balance between buyers and sellers.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Suggests the current correction phase might end soon, potentially paving the way for an upward movement
Fundamental Analysis
Key Drivers:
1. Federal Reserve Meeting:
A dovish stance or pause in rate hikes could weaken the USD, benefiting gold. Conversely, a hawkish surprise could pressure prices.
2. US Economic Data:
Housing Data: Strong numbers may support the USD, weighing on gold.
GDP Report: A weaker-than-expected reading could bolster gold's safe-haven appeal, while strong data might strengthen the dollar
3. Global Economic Factors:
Geopolitical Risks: Persistent uncertainties may sustain demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Inflation: Gold's role as an inflation hedge keeps it relevant amid ongoing inflationary pressures globally
4. Seasonal Trends:
December traditionally sees increased gold demand, linked to year-end portfolio adjustments and festive purchases.
Trading Scenarios
Bullish Scenario:
Entry: Above $2,660
Targets: $2,700, $2,720, and potentially $2,750
Stop-Loss: Below $2,630
Strategy: Look for a confirmed breakout above resistance or positive market sentiment boosting gold.
Bearish Scenario:
Entry: Below $2,630
Targets: $2,600 and $2,570
Stop-Loss: Above $2,660
Strategy: Watch for rejection at $2,650 or stronger-than-expected US data supporting the USD.