Crude Oil Trade Idea: Intraday mechanicsNYMEX:CL1! NYMEX:MCL1!
Bigger Picture:
Traders should note that news headlines do not always drive the price action. More often, news outlets look for narrative to align with the price action.
Previously, it was about the supply glut and worsening demand due to an uncertain outlook. Now the latest news flow is about Aramco OSP rising, OPEC+ adding another 548K bpd in August — higher than anticipated 411K — of the wounding of involuntary cuts. News outlets now view this as signs of demand growth and low inventories.
What has the market done?
Market has consolidated, building acceptance around microComposite Volume Point of Control at 65.50 (mcVPOC). Market then broke out of this balance.
What is it trying to do?
Market is building value higher; 2-day mcVPOC is at 68.29.
How good of a job is it doing?
Market is holding support and has tested resistance multiple times. It has also held support.
What is more likely to happen from here?
Further movement higher as long as it holds above support and yearly open confluence in the short term.
Key Levels:
• Resistance zone: 68.95 - 68.85
• pHi: 68.87
• 2-day VPOC: 68.29
• pSettlement: 68.38
• yOpen: 67.65
• Support zone: 67.70 - 67.50
• pLow: 67.89
Primary Scenario:
Crude oil pit session begins with open auction in yesterday’s range. Prices move lower to test prior day's low, 2-day balance support in confluence with yearly open. Prices push back higher towards yesterday's settlement and 2-day Volume Point of Control (VPOC) at 68.33.
Secondary Scenario:
Crude oil pit session begins with open auction in yesterday’s range. Market consolidates and chops around pSettlement and 2-day VPOC. Market takes out overnight high, fails to go further higher, and reverts lower. Settles below overnight low, however staying above prior low to continue one-time framing higher for the regular trading hours (RTH).
Commodities
Gold Trade Setup – Long Invalidated, Watching Retest for ShortGold has been consolidating between $3,200 and $3,500, recently pressing against a descending resistance line that has rejected price several times. I was favoring the upside, but our long setup was invalidated — the stop loss at $3,330 was hit.
Price is now retesting ascending support, and I'm shifting focus to a short opportunity, using our previous long entry level (~$3,333) as a key area of interest for entries.
Here’s the updated plan:
Short Entry: Around $3,333
Stop Loss: $3,340
Take Profit: $3,303
Remaining cautious but opportunistic — the larger structure is vulnerable and could break further if support fails.
Royal Gold (RGLD) Poised for Growth with $3.5B Sandstorm Acq.🚀 **Royal Gold (RGLD) Poised for Growth with $3.5B Sandstorm Acquisition!** 🥇
Royal Gold ( NASDAQ:RGLD ) is making waves with its $3.5B all-stock acquisition of Sandstorm Gold ( NYSE:SAND ) and a $196M cash buyout of Horizon Copper, announced July 7, 2025. Here’s why this could be a game-changer for investors! 📈
**🔥 Financial Highlights:**
- **Q2 2025 Performance**: Sold 40,600 GEOs at $3,248/oz gold, $32.91/oz silver, with an impressive 87% gross margin. $11.1B market cap reflects strength. 💰
- **Acquisition Impact**: Sandstorm deal adds 40 producing assets, boosting 2025 GEO production by 26%. Expect revenue & earnings growth post-Q4 2025 close. 🚀
- **Dividend Confidence**: Declared $0.45/share Q3 dividend, signaling robust cash flows. 💸
**📊 Sector Edge & Valuation**:
- **Undervalued?** Compared to Wheaton ($56B) & Franco-Nevada ($44B), Royal Gold’s lower valuation (per RBC Capital) could signal a bargain. Post-deal scale (75% gold revenue) may close the gap. 📉
- **Performance**: Sandstorm’s record Q1 2025 results + Royal Gold’s aggressive expansion outpace peers in growth potential. 🚀
**⚠️ Risks to Watch**:
- 6%–8.5% stock dip post-announcement reflects dilution fears (~19M new shares). 📉
- Commodity price volatility & regulatory approvals (due Q4 2025) pose risks. ⚖️
**🎯 SWOT Snapshot**:
- **Strengths**: Enhanced portfolio, 87% margins, leading North American royalty player.
- **Opportunities**: Analyst optimism (BMO $197 target) & copper exposure via Horizon.
- **Weaknesses**: Short-term dilution concerns.
- **Threats**: Commodity price swings, peer competition.
**💡 Why Buy Now?**
Royal Gold’s stock dip could be a buying opportunity, with analysts like BMO ($197 target) and unusual options activity signaling confidence. If precious metals stay hot ($3,342.80/oz gold futures), RGLD’s diversified portfolio could shine! 🌟
📅 **Deal Close**: Q4 2025, pending approvals.
🔎 **Dive Deeper**: Check Royal Gold’s IR page or Yahoo Finance for details.
What’s your take on NASDAQ:RGLD ’s big move? Bullish or cautious? 🐂🐻 #StockMarket #Gold #Investing
Gold: Market analysis and strategy for July 10.Gold technical analysis
Daily chart resistance level 3345, support level 3245
Four-hour chart resistance level 3340, support level 3285
One-hour chart resistance level 3330, support level 3310.
Yesterday, gold bottomed out and rebounded, standing above 3310, breaking the previous downward rhythm. The breakthrough of the previous opening means that gold is likely to continue to rise. The current market is bullish above 3310. You can buy around 3310. The upper resistance is 3340/45 area. The gold price runs in this area. If the top signal appears at a small level, you can sell.
In terms of intraday operations, it is recommended to sell in the 3340-45 range after rising, and buy when it falls back to 3310. It runs in a narrow range and can be scalped.
SELL: 3343 near
BUY: 3310near
GOLD: Local Bullish Bias! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 3,324.79 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 3,330.13.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
SILVER: Will Go Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break below the current local range around 36.619 will confirm the new direction downwards with the target being the next key level of 36.530 .and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Copper - the hot topic this weekUS is planning to implement tariffs on copper imports at a scale of 50%. It's an interesting move, which might not make much sense. Let's dig in.
MARKETSCOM:COPPER
COMEX:HG1!
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
75.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
Gold - Sell before longer term buyLooking at gold we are a matter of a few pips away from entry. looking to play gold down till our larger 4H area of demand seeing as we have had a CHoCH to the upside.
There for i will be looking to take my sell position down to 3283.5 at a bare minimum as it was the previous structure level in which we turned around.
Lets see if we get tagged in. If not i will jump down to the lower TF and see if we can get a confirmation that price is going to turn from here.
Why Ethereum’s Will 10×🚀 Ethereum’s Next 10×: Why bank-grade adoption + the stable-coin avalanche make a moonshot look conservative
Big banks are building on-chain right now. JPMorgan & Bank of America began 2025 pilots for dollar-backed tokens that settle on Ethereum, while Societe Generale just unveiled its USD CoinVertible stable-coin on main-net.
Stable-coins already move more money than Visa + Mastercard combined. $27.6 trillion flowed through stable-coins in 2024—most of it routed over Ethereum block-space.
Ethereum clears four-fifths of that stable-coin volume. More than 80 % of all stable-coin transactions occur on ETH or its L2s, locking in network effects that rivals can’t match.
ETF wall-of-money is already hitting the gate. 2025 Ethereum ETFs posted a record $743 million month of inflows—the strongest vote of institutional confidence to date.
ETH supply keeps shrinking while demand spikes. Post-Merge burn has removed roughly 332 k ETH, flipping issuance negative; base-line inflation is now < –1.3 %/yr.
30 million ETH is locked in staking, slicing liquid float by 25 %. The yield engine tightens supply just as banks and ETFs need inventory.
Real-world assets are going token-native. Tokenized bond issuance jumped 260 % in 2024 to €3 billion, and virtually every pilot settles on ERC-standards.
Layer-2 roll-ups slashed average gas fees to <$4. Cheaper block-space makes day-to-day payments viable, driving still more stable-coin throughput (and fee burn).
User base is exploding toward mass scale. Active ETH wallets hit 127 million—up 22 % YoY—showing that retail, devs, and institutions are onboarding together.
Energy-efficient PoS removes the last ESG roadblock. With > 99 % less energy use than PoW chains, Ethereum checks the sustainability box that banks and asset managers need for wide-open deployment.
Bottom line: when TradFi giants plug directly into Ethereum rails and stable-coins dwarf legacy payment rails, every transfer torches a little more supply. Add the ETF flywheel and a vanishing float, and a 10× move shifts from “moon-boy” to math.
OTHER EXAMPLES
TSLA
www.tradingview.com
Total 2
www.tradingview.com
MartyBoots here—trading for 17 years, and I would like to hear YOUR take!
👉 Can Ethereum really 10× from here? Drop your best argument below, hit the 👍 if you learned something, and smash that Follow to stay in the loop on every crypto deep-dive I post.
GOLD Intraday Chart Update For 10 July 25Hello Traders,
as you can see that GOLD is stuck in tight range between 3300-3330 all eyes on clear breakout for now
further only market will break clearly 3345 level then we will consider market will move further advance below 3300 GOLD will move towards 3250
Scalping Range 3300 - 3330 for the short time period
Disclaimer: Forex is Risky
GOLD (XAUUSD): Important Decision Ahead
As I predicted, Gold went up from a trend line yesterday.
The price is now testing another trend line - a falling resistance
of a bullish flag pattern.
The next reliable bullish signal that you can look for is its
bullish breakout and a daily candle close above that.
A bullish move is going to follow then.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
GOLD Is Very Bearish! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 3,320.51.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 3,298.54 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
XAGUSD Analysis : Squeeze + Curved Support Break + Bearish SetupThe XAGUSD 4-hour timeframe presents a structurally rich bullish setup, displaying signs of smart money accumulation and directional bias toward a potential breakout. Price action is currently compressing beneath a major horizontal resistance, supported dynamically by a Black Mind Curve, indicating progressive demand absorption by larger players.
This structure — characterized by rounded, ascending support and multiple rejections off a flat resistance — resembles a re-accumulation cup-like formation beneath a key supply level. These conditions often precede high-probability breakouts, driven by liquidity engineering and retail trap setups.
🔍 Key Technical Elements:
🟢 1. Black Mind Curve Support (Dynamic Demand Zone)
The curved trendline support represents an institutionally significant accumulation level, respected over multiple sessions. Note the price’s consistent reaction at this curved support, producing long lower wicks and bullish engulfing candles — both signs of liquidity grabs followed by strong buyer commitment.
This curve essentially acts as a visual footprint of algorithmic buying interest — creating a controlled, higher-low structure leading into the resistance wall.
🔵 2. Major Horizontal Resistance Zone (~37.20–37.40)
This level has served as a historical sell-side liquidity pool, having rejected multiple attempts to break higher over the past weeks. Each approach has been met with selling pressure, but the gradual compression of price against this zone hints at an impending breakout. Repeated testing of resistance with higher lows builds pressure — a classic ascending re-test model.
🟡 3. Break of Structure (BOS) Levels: Confirmation Zones
Minor BOS (~36.20): Confirmed. Indicates bullish intent and short-term trend shift.
Major BOS (~35.80): The ultimate invalidation level. If broken, the bullish thesis is compromised, and price may re-enter the lower consolidation zone.
A bullish BOS above 37.40 would mark a true breakout and open the door to 38.00+ levels.
🔴 4. Liquidity & Smart Money Behavior
The long wicks and deep retests into the Black Mind Curve suggest stop-loss hunts and liquidity inducement. Institutions often use such zones to trap breakout traders early, accumulate orders below swing lows, and then reverse the move. The price action around July 3–10 reflects this behavior clearly.
⚫ 5. Volume & Momentum Consideration
While not shown in the chart, volume confirmation is critical here. A breakout above resistance should ideally be supported by increased volume and momentum divergence on RSI/MACD. A failure to confirm could indicate a fakeout trap, which is not uncommon in commodity markets like Silver.
📌 Strategic Trade Scenarios:
🟢 Bullish Continuation Setup:
Trigger: Break and 4H candle close above 37.40 resistance
Retest Entry: Wait for price to retest broken resistance (now support) with bullish confirmation (engulfing, pin bar, etc.)
Targets:
TP1: 38.00 (psychological round number)
TP2: 38.60–38.90 (measured move target from structure base)
TP3: 39.50 (extension target)
Invalidation: Break below 36.00 with strong bearish volume
🔻 Bearish Rejection Scenario:
Trigger: Sharp rejection from resistance zone followed by breakdown below the Black Mind Curve and BOS levels
Confirmation: Close below 36.20 with high volume
Targets:
TP1: 35.80
TP2: 35.20 (curve base)
TP3: 34.80 (range bottom liquidity zone)
Invalidation: Return above 36.80 after rejection
📘 Market Context & Professional Insight:
This is a high-probability continuation pattern in a bullish macro context. With interest rates stabilizing and commodity demand remaining firm, silver often trails gold in performance but catches up with volatility. Traders must watch the behavior around the resistance level, as that’s where smart money will show their hand.
Institutional traders typically accumulate below resistance and engineer a breakout with controlled price action — and this chart is a textbook display of that setup. The Mind Curve structure mimics Wyckoffian schematics in the re-accumulation phase.
Timing is crucial — breakout traders should be patient and disciplined, avoiding premature entries before a valid confirmation of strength.
✅ Conclusion:
Silver (XAGUSD) is approaching a critical juncture. The chart structure suggests an imminent breakout above major resistance, supported by institutional behavior along the Black Mind Curve Support. However, traders must remain agile — watch for breakout confirmation or signs of a false move followed by distribution.
This chart embodies a calculated bullish bias, and offers a great risk-to-reward opportunity for both trend followers and breakout traders.
Gold H4 | Rising into a swing-high resistanceGold (XAU/USD) is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 3,336.84 which is a swing-high resistance.
Stop loss is at 3,370.00 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 3,289.33 which is a swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Falling towards 50% Fibonacci supprt?The Gold (XAU/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 3,306.96
1st Support: 3,287.36
1st Resistance: 3,342.69
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Waiting for the Perfect Entry: XAUUSD Market Structure Breakdown🔍 Taking a look at XAUUSD today: it’s clearly in a downtrend 📉 on the 4H chart, with consecutive lower highs and lower lows 🔽.
📌 My bias is bearish, and I’m patiently waiting for price action to set up for an entry 🎯.
If we get a break of market structure 🧱, followed by a retest and failure of the current range high 🚫, that could present an opportunity 👀 — not financial advice ⚠️.
NATURAL GAS formed Head and Shoulders patternCAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
🔍 From a longer-term perspective, I noticed that a Head and Shoulders pattern 🪖🩻 is about to form. This pattern has been forming since December 2024 and in the long term 🕰️ means no good for those who play long here 📉.
🙋♂️ Personally, I will stay aside for now and observe 👀. The asset may head towards the 3.0000 support level 🪙, where I expect a potential rebound 🔄, possibly even a retest of the trendline from below ↩️.
⏳ In the long term, the asset may even move towards the 2.0000 support level 🚨, but I will need more observation and data to be sure 🧪.
🕊️ Time will show. Thank you for the attention! 🙏
Why Your Orange Juice Costs More?The price of orange juice is surging, impacting consumers and the broader economy. This increase stems from a complex interplay of geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic pressures, and severe environmental challenges. Understanding these multifaceted drivers reveals a volatile global commodity market. Investors and consumers must recognize the interconnected factors that now influence everyday staples, such as orange juice.
Geopolitical shifts significantly contribute to the rising prices of orange juice. The United States recently announced a 50% tariff on all Brazilian imports, effective August 1, 2025. This politically charged move targets Brazil's stance on former President Jair Bolsonaro's prosecution and its growing alignment with BRICS nations. Brazil dominates the global orange juice supply, providing over 80% of the world's trade share and 81% of U.S. orange juice imports between October 2023 and January 2024. The new tariff directly increases import costs, squeezing margins for U.S. importers and creating potential supply shortages.
Beyond tariffs, a convergence of macroeconomic forces and adverse weather conditions amplify price pressures. Higher import costs fuel inflation, potentially compelling central banks to maintain tighter monetary policies. This broader inflationary environment impacts consumer purchasing power. Simultaneously, orange production faces severe threats. Citrus greening disease has devastated groves in both Florida and Brazil. Extreme weather events, including hurricanes and droughts, further reduce global orange yields. These environmental setbacks, coupled with geopolitical tariffs, create a robust bullish outlook for orange juice futures, suggesting continued price appreciation in the near term.
DeGRAM | GOLD forming head and shoulders📊 Technical Analysis
● A double rejection at 3 358—confluence of the May-July descending trend-line and the long-term channel roof—has carved successive lower highs; the break of the inner up-trend (circled) shifts structure bearish.
● Price is now slipping out of a contracting pennant; sustained trade beneath 3 246 (pattern base / April pivot) exposes the mid-channel magnet at 3 202, with the outer rail projecting 3 121.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Surprise rise in NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations and Daly’s “no urgency to cut” remarks lifted 2-yr real yields and the DXY, while ETFs saw a fifth straight day of outflows, signalling fading bullion demand.
✨ Summary
Sell 3 300–3 320; break below 3 246 targets 3 202 → 3 121. Short view void on a 4 h close above 3 358.
-------------------
Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
Gold (XAU/USD): Tugged Between Tariffs and Treasury YieldsGold is finding renewed interest from two forces: falling real yields and a cautious Fed. Despite the dollar’s strength, we’re seeing the yellow metal hold above $3,300. Treasury yields are sliding, and global central banks, especially China’s PBOC, are still net buyers of gold. The World Gold Council reported $38 billion in inflows to gold ETFs in the first half of the year, the highest in five years.
Technically, support remains stiff at the 50-day EMA ($3,305), with a ceiling at $3,340. If broken, $3,360 - $3,400 comes back into play. But failure to hold above $3,300 opens downside risk to $3,246, and possibly $3,185.
Early impulsive action got me active! This was a move I was looking to happen yesterday but got slapped trying. It just rocks out like that some time and you have to wait for the next opportunity. In this move early and looking for it to continue if it can hold well above yesterdays high. Trailing stop with every 50 ticks cause anything can happen turning price around and I dont want to give to much back.
Gold Loses Its Shine – Short-Term Sentiment Turns BearishHello everyone, great to see you again for today’s market chat!
The factors that once made gold appealing — inflation fears, economic uncertainty, and the flight to safety — are gradually fading. As confidence grows that the Fed will maintain high interest rates for an extended period, capital is steadily moving away from gold and into more stable, yield-generating assets.
Across the financial community, there’s growing consensus: gold is no longer a top investment priority. The U.S. dollar is gaining strength, Treasury yields are rising, and gold’s support structure is weakening. While investors await the Fed’s next move, many are staying on the sidelines — or even leaning toward a bearish outlook. Notably, the rebound in the DXY is also playing a key role in adding pressure.
Gold is currently lacking momentum, lacking support, and most of all — lacking conviction. At this stage, the trend is no longer a debate, but a widely accepted short-term reality.
What about you — where do you think gold is headed next?