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Oil - Looking To Sell Pullbacks In The Short TermH4 - Strong bearish move. No opposite signs. Currently it looks like a pullback is happening. Expecting bearish continuation until the two Fibonacci resistance zones hold. If you enjoy this idea, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍! Drop your thoughts and charts below to keep the discussion going. Your support helps keep this content free and reach more people! 🚀 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:WTIShort
by VladimirRibakov
XTI/USD "WTI LIGHT CRUDE OIL" Heist Plan (Scalping/Day Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰💸✈️ Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the XTI/USD "WTI LIGHT CRUDE OIL" Energy market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is to escape near the high-risk MA Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout (64.00) then make your move - Bullish profits await!" however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level for Pullback entries. 📌I strongly advise you to set an "alert (Alarm)" on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs. Stop Loss 🛑: "🔊 Yo, listen up! 🗣️ If you're lookin' to get in on a buy stop order, don't even think about settin' that stop loss till after the breakout 🚀. You feel me? Now, if you're smart, you'll place that stop loss where I told you to 📍, but if you're a rebel, you can put it wherever you like 🤪 - just don't say I didn't warn you ⚠️. You're playin' with fire 🔥, and it's your risk, not mine 👊." 📍 Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 1H timeframe (59.00) Day trade basis. 📍 SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. 🏴‍☠️Target 🎯: 68.70 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 🛢️ XTI/USD "WTI LIGHT CRUDE OIL" Energy Market Heist Plan (Scalping/Day) is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors. ☝☝☝ 📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro Economics, COT Report, Seasonal Factors, Intermarket Analysis, Inventory and Storage Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Future trend targets and Overall outlook score..., Go ahead to check 👉👉👉🔗 ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
FXOPEN:XTIUSDLong
by Thief_Trader
2
XAU/ USD) bullish trend analysis Read The ChaptianSMC Trading point update analysis for XAUUSD (Gold vs. USD) on the 2-hour timeframe appears to suggest a bullish continuation setup after a correction. Here's a breakdown of the idea: Key Points from the Chart: 1. Rising Channel: The price is moving within an ascending channel. After a breakout and strong rally, it is currently in a flag or wedge-like correction pattern. 2. Correction Zone: The price is consolidating downward inside a small descending wedge (a bullish pattern), potentially forming a bull flag. This is typically a sign of continuation after a strong upward impulse. 3. Support Zone: A 4H support level is marked around 3,301.416, which aligns with the lower boundary of the flag pattern. This is a potential buy zone for price to react and bounce. 4. Target Point: The target is projected at 3,404.254, implying a breakout to the upside if the support holds. 5. RSI Indicator: RSI is currently around 65, with previous values near 80, suggesting a slight cooldown but still in bullish territory. A slight drop in RSI might occur before the next bounce. 6. EMA 200: The EMA 200 is well below current price (around 3,137), indicating a strong bullish trend. Mr SMC Trading point Possible Trade Idea: Entry: Around the 3,301–3,305 support area. Confirmation: Wait for a bullish reversal pattern (engulfing candle or strong bounce). Target: Around 3,404 (as per the marked target zone). Stop Loss: Below the support zone (e.g., below 3,295), depending on risk tolerance. Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SMC-Trading-Point
4
GOLD (XAUUSD): Updated Support & Resistance Analysis With a strong bullish rally that we saw on Gold since the beginning of the week, I prepared for you the updated support & resistance analysis. Resistance 1: 3340 - 3357 area Resistance 2: 3390 - 3406 area Resistance 3: 3440 - 3450 area Support 1: 3235 - 3246 area Support 2: 3135 - 3167 area Support 3: 2957 - 2983 area Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by VasilyTrader
1
DeGRAM | GOLD Will Test Support Before Growth📊 Technical Analysis Gold is moving steadily inside an ascending trend. After reaching the upper boundary $3343, a pullback is forming. Support is seen near 3,280–3,290. Resistance zone lies between 3,360–3,380, where the price may reach after the correction and rebound from support. 💡 Fundamental Analysis Fed Policy Shift: Markets are pricing in potential rate cuts in coming months, weakening the USD and favoring gold. Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing global tensions and post-tariff trade friction. ✨ Summary A short-term pullback may offer a new buying opportunity around 3,280, with targets at 3,360–3,380. Macro uncertainty and Fed easing expectations support the trend. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DeGRAM
XAUUSD: Gold is making new highs!Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 1-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. A downward correction of gold towards the demand ranges will provide us with the next buying opportunity with a good risk-reward ratio. We expect a fluctuation of $10-15 in each range. • Revised Year-End Outlook: The bank attributes the bullish outlook to increased central bank purchases, inflows into gold ETFs, and continued geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. • Risk Scenario: Should the Fed shift course due to concerns over U.S. debt or weakening confidence in the dollar as a reserve currency, gold could climb to $4,500 per ounce. One of the major forces behind this rally has been the weakening U.S. dollar under the Trump administration. Market participants are voicing three primary concerns fueling this sentiment: subpar U.S. economic growth, elevated inflation, and declining productivity. These fears stem from several core issues: 1. Tariffs: While intended to support domestic industry, tariffs are increasingly viewed as disruptive, raising fears of inflationary shocks and fragile supply chains—lessons painfully learned during the COVID era. 2. Economic Growth: Trump’s original growth agenda, centered on tax cuts and deregulation, has been overshadowed by other political developments. Many economists are uneasy about a government that seems willing to defy conventional economic principles—raising fears of repeating the failures of protectionist policies. 3. Budget Deficits: The U.S. is running a staggering 7% budget deficit relative to GDP despite low unemployment (~4%). This raises questions about how Trump’s proposed policies would be funded. 4. Erosion of International Norms: The U.S. dollar’s dominance relies on institutions like NATO, the WTO, and the United Nations, as well as global faith in the rule of law. These foundations are reportedly weakening. There are also emerging concerns from places like Beijing, pointing to American vulnerabilities—especially around intellectual property. In a world where IP rights are no longer respected, what value do American corporations really have? 5. Immigration: It remains unclear how much of Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigration is substantive versus symbolic. What is clear, however, is that undocumented migrants have played a crucial role in suppressing inflation in key sectors like agriculture and hospitality. Without a clear plan to replace this workforce, cost pressures could intensify.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
3
Silver H4 | Falling to an overlap SupportSilver (XAG/USD) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 32.007 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 30.400 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit is at 34.480 which is a swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:XAGUSDLong
by Tradu
XAUUSD: 17/4 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyTechnical analysis of gold Daily chart resistance 3400, support below 3193 Four-hour chart resistance 3358, support below 3292 One-hour chart resistance 3326, support below 3300 Analysis of gold news: On Wednesday, as US President Trump ordered an investigation into import tariffs on key minerals, market risk aversion quickly heated up, and gold prices broke through the $3,300 per ounce mark for the first time. Spot gold rose 2.76% after hitting an all-time high of $3,357 during the session. The dollar index fell 0.5%, making gold cheaper for overseas buyers, further pushing up gold prices. In this tariff war, various favorable factors continue to "escort" gold. With this rally, gold has risen 26% so far this year and is on the verge of surpassing its full-year 2024 performance. Gold operation suggestions: Yesterday's single-day increase reached 120 $, and the overall technical pattern has completely entered the bullish rhythm. At present, all technical aspects are overbought, and short-term technical indicators have lost their effect. The overall logic of the rise is greatly affected by the external risk aversion sentiment, and the bullish momentum still exists. From the current trend analysis, today's upper short-term resistance focuses on the vicinity of the 3326 mark, and the lower support focuses on the four-hour level 3292 first-line support. In terms of operation, continue to buy and trade with the trend when stepping back to this position. At the same time, gold is currently in a serious overbought pattern and beware of a sharp correction. Selling is suitable for quick entry and exit, and the stop loss risk is relatively high! Buying with the trend is the right approach! Sell: 3326near SL: 3330 Buy: 3292near SL: 3288 Buy: 3250near SL: 3245
TVC:GOLDLong
by ActuaryJ
April 17, 2025 - Powell, Japan & TrumpHello everyone, it’s April 17, 2025. Yesterday’s U.S. trading was pure market carnage. Semiconductors ( NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:AMD , NASDAQ:ASML ) were steamrolled as AI chip bans to China kicked in and Trump dropped another tariff bomb, hiking duties to 245%. That wiped $200 billion off Nvidia alone. In Chicago, Powell stoked the flames, warning tariffs will fuel inflation and choke growth, and insisted he’s in no rush to cut rates. The CME_MINI:NQ1! tumbled 3%, the CME_MINI:SOX1! lost 4.1%, and bond futures plunged. This morning, U.S. futures are up about 0.75% on headlines that Trump’s talks with Japanese negotiators are “going very well,” sparking rallies across Asia: Nikkei +1%, Hong Kong +2.7%, Shanghai +1%. It seems even a whiff of détente with Japan sends everyone scrambling back into risk assets. On commodities, BLACKBULL:WTI jumps to $63.35 amid fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran and OPEC output cuts; OANDA:XAUUSD rockets to $3,352 /oz; INDEX:BTCUSD hovers near $83,500. Today watch the ECB’s rate cut, Powell’s next speech, Philly Fed and jobless claims before the Good Friday shutdown. With Trump’s erratic tariff theatrics and Powell’s warning of higher inflation and slower growth, volatility is set to reign supreme. Buckle up.
AMEX:SPY
by SmartApingAI
4
Copper: Markets are waiting for the continuation of trade tensioCopper is located between the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its descending channel. An upward correction of copper will provide us with a good risk-reward selling position. If the downward trend continues, we can buy copper at the next demand zone. The World Trade Organization (WTO) has significantly downgraded its outlook for global merchandise trade in its latest report, now forecasting a 0.2% contraction in 2025. Previously, it had projected a 3% growth. The organization warned that if the United States fully enforces its reciprocal tariffs and their effects intensify, global trade could shrink by as much as 1.5%. While the temporary suspension of some tariffs recently announced by Washington has somewhat eased the downturn in trade, the WTO emphasized that substantial downside risks remain. However, for 2026, the organization painted a more optimistic picture, anticipating a moderate 2.5% rebound in trade growth. In a pointed address, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng sent a clear message to the international community, especially the U.S., asserting that China has no intention of backing down and will stand firm if its interests are threatened. His remarks came as a new wave of heavy U.S. tariffs—including duties as high as 245% on certain Chinese exports—has reignited tensions between the two economic powers. He Lifeng affirmed that China remains a reliable trade partner for the world. He also announced increased government support for Chinese businesses engaged in foreign trade and encouraged them to leverage opportunities at the Canton Fair and explore broader global markets. According to him, China’s vast domestic market could become a key destination for high-quality imported goods. Alongside these economic and diplomatic messages, Chinese officials’ rhetoric has turned more confrontational in response to recent U.S. actions. He dismissed what he called the U.S.’s “numerical games” and warned that China’s response to threats would be decisive. Stressing the importance of a healthy business environment, he urged officials to implement supportive policies effectively, ensuring foreign trade and economic activity proceed with greater transparency, efficiency, and ease. Meanwhile, the global maritime shipping industry has entered a concerning phase. New data from Vizion shows that bookings for shipments to the U.S. have sharply declined following the implementation of new tariffs by the American government. This sudden drop occurred just one week after the tariffs were imposed and reflects how businesses are reacting to deep policy uncertainty. High-traffic routes such as Shanghai to Los Angeles—which typically take 20–30 days—and routes through the Panama Canal to New York—which add another 15 days—have seen notable declines in bookings. This downturn is occurring precisely when summer orders should be peaking. The data clearly indicates that the anticipated decline in U.S. port volumes will materialize soon and with greater intensity in May. The plunge in bookings is sounding alarms not just for importers and retailers but also for the broader logistics industry, ports, and even Asian manufacturers, potentially leading to a slowdown in all these sectors. In parallel, Deutsche Bank’s latest report sharply downgraded the U.S. economic growth forecast for 2025 while raising inflation projections, signaling a shift in the bank’s analysis toward a stagflation scenario. According to the report, U.S. GDP is expected to grow by only 0.9% on a quarterly basis in 2025—markedly lower than earlier estimates. Key factors behind this revision include trade tariffs, policy uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions. The new wave of tariffs, particularly those targeting Chinese imports, has been cited as a major driver of renewed inflationary pressures. On the monetary front, Deutsche Bank warned that the abrupt economic policies of the U.S. administration have created unprecedented instability in the global financial system—an impact that will likely persist even if some tariffs are temporarily rolled back. The report also raised concerns about the future of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency and suggested that the country’s ability to finance its growing fiscal deficits could be seriously undermined.
CAPITALCOM:COPPERShort
by Ali_PSND
XAU/USD) Flag Analysis Read The ChaptianSMC Trading point update Analysis presents a bullish outlook for XAU/USD (Gold vs USD) on the 1-hour timeframe, based on Smart Money Concepts (SMC). Here’s a breakdown of the key elements: --- Key Analysis Points: 1. Order Block + Key Support Zone: Price recently tapped into a bullish order block around the $3,166.74–$3,208.62 zone. This area is also marked as a "key support level", suggesting a strong demand zone. The confluence of the Fair Value Gap (FVG) and order block gives this zone higher validity for potential reversal. 2. Bullish Market Structure: The chart shows higher highs and higher lows, indicating a bullish trend. Price action broke above a small consolidation, showing bullish momentum is resuming. 3. Projected Target: The target point is set at $3,283.01, suggesting about a 55-point upside from the current price. This target sits above a previous high, indicating anticipation of a liquidity grab or breakout. 4. RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI is at 57.94, which is a neutral-to-bullish zone. It supports the idea that there's still room for price to move up before being overbought. 5. EMA 200 (Exponential Moving Average): The price is well above the 200 EMA, confirming a bullish bias in the higher timeframe. Mr SMC Trading point --- Possible Strategy: Long (Buy) Entry Zone: Between $3,166–$3,208 (ideal near the order block/FVG). Target: $3,283 Stop Loss: Below the order block, ideally below $3,166 to avoid getting wicked out. --- Final Thoughts: This is a well-structured bullish setup based on institutional concepts like order blocks and FVGs. The price is aligned with the trend, and RSI supports more upside. However, watch for any major news catalysts (especially with those economic event icons shown). Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
FX:XAUUSDLong
by SMC-Trading-Point
4
GOLD short-term analysis, buy setupFrom a macro perspective, the daily chart gold price has formed a lasting upward trend since the low of $2536, with the highest price at $3357.8, which is significantly higher than all major moving averages, indicating that the long-term bullish momentum is still strong. The MACD indicator golden cross pattern on the daily chart continues to develop, indicating that the long-term trend momentum is still upward. This year, the upward trend cannot be changed. If there is a callback squat or sideways consolidation, it is a bullish opportunity; then once it continues to rise today, the retracement above 3315 is a buying opportunity. As for where the target is, the monthly chart is calculated to be around 3444, which is also the target of the next stage. Gold has been crazy recently, and gold bulls have been rising all the way. Every day when I wake up and open it in the past two days, it is a new high. The strength of gold bulls is very strong. The 1-hour moving average of gold continues to form a golden cross with upward bullish divergence. It is difficult for the strong gold bulls to have a big correction. After gold began to fall back and fluctuate near 3315 yesterday, the gold US market continued to break upward directly, so the short-term 3315 of gold formed support again, and gold fell back to 3315 and continued to buy on dips. Before there are no particularly obvious signs of a sharp decline, buying on dips has become our only choice, and it is also the best and safest choice! While looking at the bulls, pay attention to the opportunity to fall back. Unless the strength is suddenly strong at that time, don't easily chase the high position. Wait patiently for the opportunity to fall back. How long can the gold bulls be crazy? Don’t guess the top when it goes up, no one knows this. Since gold is so crazy, all we have to do is follow it. It is difficult for gold to fall sharply before there is a large-scale short signal! Key points: First support: 3315, second support: 3294, third support: 3246 First resistance: 3360, second resistance: 3377, third resistance: 3386 Operation ideas: Buy: 3317-3320, SL: 3308, TP: 3340-3350; Sell: 3387-3390, SL: 3398, TP: 3370-3360;
TVC:GOLDLong
by Jun-GoldAnalyst
DeGRAM | GOLD Growth in the Channel📊 Technical Analysis - Uptrending channel XAU/USD steadily climbs within a clear ascending channel, rebounding from support towards resistance. - Key resistance Main barrier at $3225; a breakout here confirms bullish momentum. - Predictive scenario Breaking $3225 opens doors for further upward movement. 💡 Fundamental Analysis Trump's imposition of trade duties, has caused geopolitical instability, which has contributed to further demand for GOLD. ✨ Summary Positive technical setup combined with supportive fundamentals. Break above $3225 signals continued bullish momentum! ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DeGRAM
3
Gold hits resistance at highs, is the bull market over?The highest price hit the 3358 line in early trading, but we need to be wary of the risks of chasing higher prices. Tomorrow is Good Friday and the market will be closed for one day. There is a high probability that those who hold long orders may take profits and exit. Yesterday, the price of gold rose sharply after opening at US$3,230, with a single-day increase of more than US$100. The daily line closed positive, but it has fallen slightly after rising in early trading. From a technical perspective, if the price of gold falls below the early morning low of 3343, it may turn into a volatile pattern; if it holds this support, there is still a chance to challenge new highs. The key support is located at the top-bottom transition level of the 3310-3305 first-line area. If it falls further to $3270, we need to be alert to the risk of a short-term correction. The upper resistance is clearly at the intraday high of 3358 Intraday gold operation advice 1. In the short term, you can go short, target the 3310 line, and hold if you break the position. 2. If the support below is strong, go long 3300-3310, with the target at 3335-3345. If you agree with this point of view, or you have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices. FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD CAPITALCOM:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GoldHunter_Allen
1
Gold short-term analysisGold fell back to 3229 yesterday and stopped climbing. After breaking the integer mark of 3300 in the European session, the US session accelerated its rise. The daily line reached 3343 at its highest. The daily line finally closed at 3342 with a basically saturated big positive line. The current market trend is strong. The upward trend continued on Wednesday without a correction. The intraday increase reached 110 points again, which is exactly the same as the trend of last Wednesday. The hourly line basically maintains an upward trend. It can only be said that if the strong market retreats more than 20 points, it will inevitably continue its increase. Before there is no particularly obvious sign of a sharp decline, going long has become the only choice, and it is also the best and safest choice. The current support is the top and bottom conversion around 3320-3305. If these positions are not broken, you can go long. Overall, today's short-term operation strategy is mainly to go long on pullbacks, supplemented by shorting on rebounds. The short-term focus on the upper side is 3370-3380 resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is 3330-3320 support. Operation strategy: Range buy: 3320--3325 SL:3310 TP: 3335---3340
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by GoldenViewJake
GLD Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-04-16GLD Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-04-16) Below is a consolidated view of the various model reports and our resulting trade rationale: ────────────────────────────── Comprehensive Summary of Each Model’s Key Points • Grok/xAI Report  – Notes that GLD closed around $306.52 with recent upward momentum and bullish daily indicators.  – Technicals (moving averages, Bollinger Bands, and MACD on daily charts) support a moderately bullish bias despite some near-term caution from 5‑minute signals.  – Recommends buying the $311 call (premium ~ $0.99) with a plan to exit if the price breaks key support or slides 20% in premium. • Claude/Anthropic Report  – Highlights strong daily uptrend fundamentals with GLD well above its key moving averages, although the daily RSI is high (76.59) which raises a caution flag.  – Points to robust call open interest at nearby strikes ($310) and suggests a bullish trade via the call option—even though a slightly lower strike ($310) is mentioned, the overall picture is bullish.  – The recommended entry is at market open with a target around a 50% premium gain and a stop if the premium retracts significantly. • Gemini/Google Report  – Emphasizes strong longer‐term bullish momentum but expresses caution given immediate overbought conditions (daily RSI above 70 and price trading above the upper Bollinger Band).  – Also notes the strangely low max pain ($275) in contrast to the current price, warning of potential early pullbacks.  – Concludes that the overall picture is too conflicted to recommend a trade at the open at this time. • Llama/Meta Report  – Combines technical indicators (EMA, RSI, Bollinger Bands) with strong news sentiment to determine GLD is in a bullish phase.  – Identifies the $311 call (premium ~$0.99) as attractive given its liquidity and distance from the current price (about 1.46% above).  – Recommends market-open entry with targets set at roughly 150% of the premium and stop-loss based on a percentage of the premium. • DeepSeek Report  – Provides a balanced trade plan noting the very strong 30‑day price performance and bullish daily MACD while cautioning on the overbought RSI reading.  – Recommends the $311 call (midpoint premium ~$0.99) with a profit target of roughly a 50% gain and a stop tied to technical support breaks (around $304.90).  – Maintains a moderate confidence level (around 65%) because of the chance that short‑term pullbacks may materialize. ────────────────────────────── 2. Areas of Agreement and Disagreement • Agreement:  – Most models agree on an underlying moderately bullish trend for GLD based on daily technical indicators and positive news (e.g., fund inflows and safe‑haven demand).  – A majority favor a call option trade on the weekly expiry, with many models arriving at the vicinity of the $311 strike (with premiums around $0.99) as an optimal entry. • Disagreement:  – The Gemini/Google report raises concerns about overbought conditions on the daily chart and highlights a very low max pain level that suggests downside pressure, recommending against an immediate open trade.  – Claude mentions a slightly lower strike ($310) but still a call trade; however, the bulk of reports lean toward the $311 call as a balanced choice, accepting the premium being a bit above the ideal $0.30–$0.60 range. ────────────────────────────── 3. Conclusion and Trade Recommendation Overall Market Direction Consensus:  Most models point to an overall moderately bullish outlook on GLD. While the daily trend is robust, some short‑term technicals (e.g., the overbought RSI and near-term MACD signs) advise caution. Nevertheless, the prevailing momentum and strong news sentiment favor a bullish call—even if a temporary pullback remains possible. Recommended Trade:  Trade Idea: Buy a single‑leg, naked CALL option on GLD.  • Strike: $311.00 (this strike shows sufficient liquidity with about 1,055 open interest and a traded premium of roughly $0.99)  • Expiration: Weekly options expiring 2025‑04‑17  • Premium: ~ $0.99 (slightly above the ideal range, but justified by good risk/reward and high liquidity)  • Entry Timing: At the open  • Profit Target: Approximately a 50% increase (target premium ~ $1.50)  • Stop Loss: Approximately 20% drop in the premium (≈ $0.79)  • Confidence Level: Moderately confident (≈70%) given the bullish trend tempered by the risk of an intraday pullback  • Key Risks/Considerations:   – The daily RSI is in overbought territory, so be alert for any pullback.   – The inherent conflict with the very low max pain point ($275) suggests potential short-term volatility.   – Monitor support levels (e.g., $304.90 on the 5‑minute chart) for early signs of reversal. ────────────────────────────── 4. TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format) { "instrument": "GLD", "direction": "call", "strike": 311.0, "expiry": "2025-04-17", "confidence": 0.70, "profit_target": 1.50, "stop_loss": 0.79, "size": 1, "entry_price": 0.99, "entry_timing": "open" } Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions based on proprietary research which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, and options trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC, or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. By reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms. Any screenshots used here are courtesy of TradingView. I am just an end user with no affiliations with them. Information and quotes shared in this blog can be 100% wrong. Markets are risky and can go to 0 at any time. Furthermore, you will not share or copy any content in this blog as it is the authors' IP. By reading this blog, you accept these terms of conditions and acknowledge I am sharing this blog as my personal trading journal, nothing more.
AMEX:GLDLong
by quantsignals
Cocoa's Future: Sweet Commodity or Bitter Harvest?The global cocoa market faces significant turbulence, driven by a complex interplay of environmental, political, and economic factors threatening price stability and future supply. Climate change presents a major challenge, with unpredictable weather patterns in West Africa increasing disease risk and directly impacting yields, as evidenced by farmer reports and scientific studies showing significant yield reductions due to higher temperatures. Farmers warn of potential crop destruction within the decade without substantial support and adaptation measures. Geopolitical pressures add another layer of complexity, particularly regarding farmgate pricing in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire. Political debate in Ghana centres on demands to double farmer payments to align with campaign promises and counter the incentive for cross-border smuggling created by higher prices in neighbouring Côte d'Ivoire. This disparity highlights the precarious economic situation for many farmers and the national security implications of unprofitable cocoa cultivation. Supply chain vulnerabilities, including aging trees, disease prevalence like Swollen Shoot Virus, and historical underinvestment by farmers due to low prices, contribute to a significant gap between potential and actual yields. While recent projections suggest a potential surplus for 2024/25 after a record deficit, pollination limitations remain a key constraint, with studies confirming yields are often capped by insufficient natural pollination. Concurrently, high prices are dampening consumer demand and forcing manufacturers to consider reformulating products, reflected in declining cocoa grinding figures globally. Addressing these challenges necessitates a multi-pronged approach focused on sustainability and resilience. Initiatives promoting fairer farmer compensation, longer-term contracts, agroforestry practices, and improved soil management are crucial. Enhanced collaboration across the value chain, alongside government support for sustainable practices and compliance with new environmental regulations, is essential to navigate the current volatility and secure a stable future for cocoa production and the millions who depend on it.
ICEUS:CC1!Long
by UDIS_View