Commodities
OUR TRADE TODAY ON USOILMy clients and I today too 2 trades, one on Oil and the other one on Nasdaq, we entered after that the market gave us a reversal point to target the liquidity level, which the market filled later in the day.
I didn't post it since we had to focus on recovering the losses silently, since we did, I'll be reposting again.
Follow for more!
Bullish bounce?WTI oil (XTI/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 79.16
1st Support: 78.07
1st Resistance: 80.83
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2025-01-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: The bull channel is clear and valid until broken. I do think a bigger pull-back is overdue but until then, bulls are in control.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2670 - 2770
bull case: Bulls want to print above 2761 and make a new high above the December high. If they can get it, we could see more upside to 2800 since there is no more resistance afterwards. the bull channel is tight and no matter how you count it, we had at least 3 legs up and betting on a 4th is a losing strategy in most cases.
Invalidation is below 2700.
bear case: Bears doing not enough and if they fail at 2761, we will go 2800+ again. Not much to interpret here. We are still in a bull channel on the 1h tf and bears would need a 1h bar close below the 20ema for a start. The previous times we got above 2740, we printed huge bear reversal bars and I am hoping for another one tomorrow. Bears are also seeing this as at least 3 legs up and they want another decent pull-back for at least 50 points like the prior ones.
Invalidation is above 2765.
short term: Neutral. Waiting for bears to come around here at big resistance. If they fail, we see 2800 soon. No bigger interest in buying this.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-02: If we break strongly above 2700, we will likely retest 2740-2760 and depending on that move, we will either stay inside the big range 2560 - 2760 or retest 2800 or even higher.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the double bottom on the 1h tf at 2722 before EU open. Otherwise just any pullback to the 1h 20ema.
Could the price drop from here?USO/USD is reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 79.13
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 80.50
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 77.49
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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GOLD Will Collapse! SELL!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on GOLD and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 2694.1 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 2685.5
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Silver (XAGUSD): Position Update and New TargetsBack in October 2024, we successfully closed our second position at the exact top of wave 3, capturing the peak before XAGUSD dropped by 17%. We’re still holding our first setup, which remains open with the stop loss set at break-even.
We believe the bottom of wave 4 was established around $29, and the chart now points towards a move higher into wave 5. Our focus is on a continuation above the Point of Control (POC) into the $31.35–$32.90 range. At that point, we’ll look for an entry during the pullback (wave (iv)).
Alerts are set, and we’re ready to capitalise when the opportunity arises.
#XAUUSD DAILY ANALYSISDue to the buyer power that caused the micro-wave 4 correction to turn into a triangle... we have updated the chart again on the daily time frame... so that you are aware of the future events of #GOLD
We are happy that you have joined the group of professionals
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WTI CRUDE OIL: Buy opportunity on the 1D MA50.WTI Crude Oil is neutralizing the previously overbought 1D technical outlook (RSI = 69.520, MACD = 2.080, ADX = 64.888) as after crossing over the R1 level, it is pulling back under it. Technically this has been mirroring the March-August 2023 fractal and based on that, we should see this pull back almost reach the 1D MA50. A buy opportunity is waiting there and our target is the 1.618 Fibonacci level (TP = 86.00).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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XAU/USD : Gold Surges Above $2700: Volatility Looms! (READ)By analyzing the gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we see that, as anticipated, the price experienced another strong rally, breaking above $2700. Today, gold reached $2711 before encountering a bearish order block, triggering a correction. Currently, it is trading around $2703.
With key reports like Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims ahead today, gold is expected to see heightened volatility. Given the current momentum, further correction is likely. The first corrective target for gold is $2698.5, with subsequent targets to be updated in future analyses. Stay tuned!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
Following on from the initial KOG Report we've not done too badly managing to plot the path for the move and jump on board with it over the week. Yesterday we wanted that pullback into the 2685-90 region to continue with the bias and the bias levels which didn't hit exactly but the move continued and we've completed all of our targets for the week.
Now, again we're a bit high, so if you're looking for trades the only option is to wait for the pull back, or for those on the boxes and scalping, look for a reversal from above, if not broken, support has flipped 2710!
For us, a great week on the gold and the rest of the markets, we'll be taking it easy tomorrow.
KOG’s Bias for the week:
Bullish above 2650 with targets above 2700✅, 2706✅ and above that 2716✅
Bearish on break of 2650 with targets below 2640 and below that 2635
RED BOXES:
Break above 2690 for 2700✅, 2703✅, 2706✅, 2710✅ and 2724✅ in extension of the move
Break below 2680 for 2667, 2665, 2655 and 2640 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
USD/JPY : Ready for more Fall?! (READ THE CAPTION)Upon analyzing the USD/JPY chart in the daily time frame, we see that the pair is currently trading around the 157.060 level. Given the recent price action, I anticipate a significant correction in USD/JPY in the near future.
The first potential target for this decline is 156.25, so keep a close eye on this level! Stay tuned for updates as we track this movement together.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments below!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
This is an update on our 1H CHART route map shared on Sunday. This chart has been playing gout perfectly.
We started the week with the retracement range test followed with the bounce into our bullish target 2691. EMA5 cross and locked above 2691 opening 2706 and 2719. This was hit perfectly today completing this range.
We are now looking for ema5 lock above 2719 to open the range above for a continuation or failure to lock above will follow with a rejection here.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2691 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2691 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2706 - DONE
POTENTIALLY 2719 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2719 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2736
BEARISH TARGETS
2679 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2679 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE
RETRACEMENT RANGE
2668 (DONE) - 2654
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2654 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2640 - 2624
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
EUR/USD : Approaching Critical Demand Zones! (READ THE CAPTION)By reviewing the #EURUSD chart in the three-day timeframe, we can see that the price has currently reached a very important demand zone, and the probability of a price reversal from this level is high! However, note that I personally have another scenario in mind, which is that after an initial short-term rise in the current area, the price will decline again to the very important demand zone of 1.005 to 1.007 , and then, with a suitable trigger in this area, we can look for an attractive BUY position !
All key levels and important zones have been marked on the chart! If you have any questions, be sure to ask, and I will try to respond as soon as possible!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Will gold fluctuate significantly today?
In the early Asian session on Wednesday (January 15), spot gold fluctuated slightly and is currently trading at $2,683 per ounce. Gold prices rebounded slightly on Tuesday, closing at $2,677.22 per ounce, after U.S. inflation data was slightly lower than expected, giving investors a faint hope that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates in 2025, and the U.S. dollar fell in response. The strengthening of the U.S. dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields may still be unfavorable factors for gold in the first half of this year, but the demand for gold as a diversified investment tool will be enough to outweigh these unfavorable factors. On Tuesday, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield continued to rise, once refreshing a more than 14-month high of 4.820%. This yield is regarded as a risk-free yield, the opportunity cost of holding gold in the market, and the rise in this yield will reduce the attractiveness of gold. In addition, concerns about Trump's policy uncertainty also provide support for gold prices, but U.S. Treasury yields continue to climb, which makes gold bulls cautious. Investors are currently waiting for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday to analyze the Fed's policy path.
U.S. President-elect Trump will return to the White House on January 20. He has previously vowed to impose additional trade tariffs. Analysts expect this will trigger a trade war and reignite inflation. President-elect Trump said on Tuesday that he would set up a new department called the External Revenue Service, "to collect tariffs, import duties and all taxes from foreign countries." Trump is preparing to impose new import tariffs before taking office next week. In terms of geopolitical situation, negotiators are trying to agree on the final details of the Gaza ceasefire after marathon talks in Qatar, with mediators and both warring parties saying they are closer than ever to reaching an agreement. However, after more than eight hours of talks, a senior Hamas official told Reuters reporters late on Tuesday that the group is still waiting for Israel to submit a map for its withdrawal from Gaza. U.S. President Biden attended the talks together with envoys of President-elect Trump. Investors need to pay attention to relevant news. In addition, New York Fed President Williams and Chicago Fed President Goolsburn will deliver speeches on the trading day, which investors need to pay close attention to. In addition, pay attention to the release of the Beige Book of Economic Conditions by the Federal Reserve.
Gold market trend analysis:
Gold technical analysis: The gold range has contracted and fluctuated, the daily physical K-line is small, and the short-term space has become passivated. If the space cannot be walked out, it will fall into a narrow range of contraction and saw-saw oscillation, and it is not strong or weak. The daily structure enters the triangle range. Although the low point is upward, forming a small step upward, the resistance at the upper track has not been effectively broken through, and there is no upward space for the time being. In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate back and forth within the range. If the gold rebound and rise is not sustained, then gold will continue to be a volatile market. Gold has poor sustainability recently. Don't chase the rise easily. Continue to short gold at a rebound high.
The gold 1-hour moving average is about to enter a dead cross downward. If the gold 1-hour moving average forms a dead cross downward, then the gold downside space will be further opened. The market is changing rapidly. Gold is now a volatile market. Gold rebounds high and continues to short. On the whole, the professional and experienced gold analyst team recommends shorting on rebounds as the main strategy for short-term gold operations today, and long on pullbacks as the auxiliary strategy. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 2676-2680 resistance line, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 2645-2650 support line.
Gold operation strategy:
1. Go long on gold when it falls back to the 2660-65 line, stop loss at 2655, target at 2675-80 line, and look at 2690 line if it breaks;
2. Go short on the 2690 line when gold rebounds for the first time, and cover short on the 2704 line when it rebounds, stop loss at 2711, and target at 2665-70 line;
Oil Short 4HI’m excited to share my next setup for Oil. This trading idea is based on correction levels.
The main idea area is between 80.35 and 80.25. However, since oil tends to react to the 50 levels, I prefer to focus on the 80.5 level for my entry.
For the 4-hour entry, I am waiting for the formation of an M pattern with a lower peak at the second base. I’ll be looking to take scalp sell at the levels of 80.25, 80.35, and 80.5 for the first touches. after that, I'm going to wait for the confirmation to take the main Sell.
Please note that, typically, upon the first collision, we could experience either an impulse or a rejection entry. At the second base, we should wait for a consolidation area to confirm our entry. For a better understanding of this setup, please refer to my previous oil chart.
TP1: 79.9
TP2: 79.2
TP3: 77.4
SL: 81.35
Please remember that trading carries risks, and it's crucial to do your own research. The ideas shared here reflect my personal analysis and may not guarantee success. Always trade responsibly and consider seeking professional advice if needed.
Happy trading!
Analysis of gold review in simple languageHello guys
We came with gold analysis.
We have two scenarios:
1_ According to the upward trend, let the price reach the resistance range and maintain the range from there to open a sell transaction.
2- Let the price reach the support range and open the purchase transaction while maintaining the range.
In our opinion, the first scenario is more tolerant.
*Trade safely with us*
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-16 : Momentum Rally PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets will continue a rally phase - trending on the momentum from yesterday. It is likely the SPY/QQQ will attempt to rally and break away from the downward-sloping price channel I show on my charts.
Remember, my broader cycle pattern research suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to rally into Jan 20-23, then peak and roll downward/sideways into a Feb 9-10 V-Bottom pattern.
As I highlight in this video, the markets appear to be moving into a consolidation phase within the current downward-sloping price channel. I'm watching to see if the new Trump administration brings a BUMP (like last time) that breaks the US markets away from this consolidation trend.
Remember, the data on the US economy and earnings continues to be strong. A Trump-Bump will likely happen again, pushing the US markets into even greater dominance as the 900-lb Gorilla compared to other global economies.
However, until global central banks can move their economies to become more independent of US economic demand and imports, the process of working through the excesses of the COVID/Spending-spree administration (Biden) will continue as long as wealth in the US goes unchallenged (by some crisis or economic event).
So, again, expect the 900lb Gorilla to continue to dominate while there is no major crisis event in the future.
Gold and Silver should rally today on a RALLY pattern as well.
I believe BTCUSD is struggling to find support and may move downward over the next 10+ days.
We'll see what happens.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Gold Price Update: Potential Bullish ContinuationGold prices are showing signs of a potential bullish continuation. The price has retraced to the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 2,677.26 USD after a strong upward move and appears to be stabilizing around this support.
The current consolidation above 2,677.26 USD suggests the possibility of another upward push toward the 1.0 Fibonacci level at 2,697.98 USD, with further resistance levels at 2,718.71 USD and 2,729.08 USD. However, if the price fails to hold above 2,677.26 USD, the next support level to watch is 2,666.89 USD.
Key Levels:
Immediate Resistance: 2,697.98 USD (1.0 Fibonacci level)
Support Zone: 2,677.26 USD (0.5 Fibonacci level) and 2,666.89 USD (0.25 Fibonacci level)
Potential Targets: 2,729.08 USD (1.75 Fibonacci level)
This setup indicates a bullish outlook if key support levels hold. Should monitor price action closely for confirmation of the next move.
GOLD approaching key short-term resistance. What's next?Gold is moving in the upwards direction, despite the higher US CPI reading, which benefits the US dollar. However, there is a possibility that the higher inflation reading was already priced in and maybe this could lead to slower upside pace for the US dollar. Let's dig in...
TVC:GOLD TVC:DXY MARKETSCOM:GOLD MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX
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