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Gold at a Psychological Level Gold has now risen to 100 times its previously fixed price of $35 per ounce. Is this a psychological milestone signaling a correction ahead, or is there still more upside potential? Under the Gold Reserve Act of 1934, gold was officially priced at $35, a rate maintained until 1971, when President Nixon suspended the dollar’s convertibility into gold, effectively ending the gold standard. This historic move, known as the “Nixon Shock,” allowed gold to trade freely in the market. By December the same year, the market price had already climbed to around $43–44 per ounce. So why has gold risen from $35 to $3,500? Gold is widely recognized as a hedge against inflation—but in reality, it has proven to be more than that. Let’s consider this: If inflation had compounded at the target rate of 2% per year since 1971, gold should be priced at $102 today. But at $3,500, the also implied that the compounded annual growth rate is around 8.9%. So, what explains this outperformance? One key driver is the expansion of the money supply, especially through debt, and more critically, debt financed by money printing. Periods of high inflation are can be preceded by an unjustified increase in the money supply, not backed by corresponding income or production output. In 2018, we saw the beginning of Trump’s Tariff 1.0. Since the anticipation of Trump’s Tariff 2.0, I’ve incorporated a framework I call the QTD Matrix—which stands for Quantitative Easing, Tariffs, and Debt—to track the trajectory of gold prices. As long as we continue to see: • Central banks deploying Quantitative Easing during crises, • Ongoing or escalating Tariff wars, and • Persistent growth in national Debt, It is reasonable to expect gold to remain firm and potentially break into new highs. Historical Observations: • Let’s start with Gold vs QE. Each major wave of QE has triggered a significant rally in gold—from Japan’s QE in 2001, to US QE1, QE2, and QE3 following the 2008 crisis, and the massive Covid-era QE in 2020. • Next Gold vs Tariffs. When Trump’s Tariff 1.0 was announced in August 2018, gold pivoted on that very day and began trending higher. In October 2022, Biden’s export controls on advanced chips acted as a tariff-equivalent event, once again prompting gold to rise. After Trump's re-election in November last year, markets began pricing in Tariff 2.0, and gold responded by trending upward once more. • Finally Gold vs Debt. Gold has also moved in close tandem with the rising US debt over the years. As of now, I believe that QE (Q), Tariffs (T), and Debt (D) will remain in play. Hence, it's reasonable to expect: • The cost of living to remain elevated, • Inflationary pressures to persist, and • Gold prices to continue their long-term uptrend. That said, I’m also noticing technical and psychological resistance in the mid-term after it reached $3,500. This is a quarterly chart, once I have identified its primary uptrend line, I would like to mirror it to its significant peak (going back way back the 1980s, a period of high inflation), which appears to intersect around the psychological level of $3,500. With the trade war currently on pause, gold may temporarily take a breather. But as long as QTD remains intact, it may just be a matter of time before gold tests its recent resistance—and, if broken, continues its upward trajectory. We should also ask: Is there any possibility that the Q, T, or D could shift in the opposite direction? If so, that could be a positive sign for equity markets. Micro Gold Futures & Options Ticker: MGC Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
COMEX:GC1!Short
by konhow
A Brief Overview of Price Patterns in TradingPrice patterns are technical analysis tools that help identify price behavior on charts to predict future trends. Common patterns include continuation and reversal formations. Continuation patterns such as flags, triangles, and rectangles often appear during strong trends and indicate the likelihood of the trend continuing after a period of consolidation. Reversal patterns like head and shoulders, double tops and bottoms, and wedges signal potential changes in trend direction. Recognizing these patterns allows traders to optimize entry points, stop-loss levels, and take-profit targets. The clearer the pattern and the higher the timeframe it appears on, the more reliable it tends to be. However, no pattern guarantees success, so it's important to combine them with other factors like volume, support and resistance zones, and confirmation signals before making trading decisions. Each pattern has its own identifying characteristics such as shape, length, and breakout zones, so consistent observation and practice are essential. Price patterns not only assist in technical analysis but also reflect market psychology and crowd behavior. For best results, traders should combine pattern recognition with risk management and patiently wait for clear signals instead of reacting emotionally. A deep understanding of price patterns can increase the probability of success and reduce risk in the trading process. Wishing you effective trading and strong discipline!
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Henrybillion
XAUUSD Technical Outlook – Golden Cross in FocusGold is showing signs of recovery on the H1 timeframe, rebounding from the critical $3,290 support zone after a brief consolidation phase. A notable development is the 50-period moving average crossing above the 200-period MA — forming a Golden Cross, which is a classic bullish signal suggesting upward momentum may strengthen in the near term. 🔍 Momentum Insights: Resistance Check: On the micro-level, XAUUSD is approaching short-term resistance — the 50-MA itself — which may offer temporary friction. MACD Confirmation: The MACD histogram has crossed above the signal line, reinforcing bullish divergence and signaling growing upward momentum. Structure: Price is maintaining higher lows while respecting the moving average structure — a sign of controlled bullish development. 📈 #TradeIdea – Breakout Strategy We are watching for a buy opportunity above the $3,320 breakout level, aligning with a shift in both momentum and structure. 🔼 Long Setup: 📍 Entry: Buy on breakout above $3,320 🎯 Target 1: $3,350 🎯 Target 2: $3,365 🛡️ Stop-loss can be trailed below $3,290 (support turned invalidation)
TVC:GOLDLong
by filatovarthur
GOLD → Consolidation ahead of news. Retest of resistanceFX:XAUUSD remained above the key support level of 3280 and is testing intermediate resistance. Against the backdrop of the dollar's decline, the metal has a chance to continue its growth... Gold is trading in consolidation ahead of the Fed meeting minutes. Easing trade risks and the dollar's recovery triggered a correction from the recent peak of $3366. Against the backdrop of the dollar's correction, the metal is entering a phase of local rally and testing resistance at 0.5f The Fed is maintaining a cautious tone, and the market is waiting for signals on interest rates. The escalation of the conflict in Ukraine and the threat of new sanctions from Trump did not cause significant concern in the markets. Investors are waiting for drivers Resistance levels: 3322, 3348, 3363 Support levels: 3290, 3282, 3265 A small correction may form from 3322 before growth continues. The market is interested in liquidity in the 3348-3363 zone, and the price is likely to test this zone. However, further developments depend on the fundamental background. Rising economic risks or hints of interest rate cuts could support the price of gold. Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
11
Technical Analysis: XAU/USD (Gold) Price Action📊 Technical Analysis: XAU/USD (Gold) Price Action 🕒 Timeframe: 4H (Based on candlestick structure) 📅 Published: May 27, 2025 💰 Current Price: 3,303.860 🔴 Major Resistance Zone 📍 3,480 – 3,500 📌 Seen with red arrows and price rejections. 📉 Strong selling pressure has occurred twice from this level (double top-like behavior). ❗ Until price breaks above this, bulls face a major hurdle. 🟣 Key Mid-Level Zone (S/R Flip) 📍 3,340 – 3,360 🔄 This area has flipped between support and resistance. 🔸 Price tested this level recently and pulled back (orange circle), suggesting sellers are active. 🔮 This is the pivot zone – watch for break/rejection to determine next trend leg. 🟪 Main Support Zone 📍 3,180 – 3,220 ✅ Multiple bounce reactions visible (green arrows and circles). 💪 This zone has held strong; indicates solid buyer interest. 📉 If price returns here and breaks below, we could see further downside to 3,120 or lower. 🧭 Market Structure Summary 🔁 The market is in a range-bound structure between 3,220 – 3,360, with spikes towards 3,480. 🔃 The recent higher low followed by rejection at mid-resistance suggests potential distribution. 🧠 Forecast Scenarios 🔵 Bullish Scenario (Blue Path) Break above 3,360 → Retest as support → 📈 Potential rally to 3,480 📍 Target: 3,480+ 🟢 Confirmation: Strong bullish engulfing candle + volume surge 🔻 Bearish Scenario (Blue-Arrow + Orange Circle) Rejection at current resistance → Drop toward 3,220 📍 Target: Main Support zone ❗ Watch for bearish candle pattern confirmation at 3,340 ⚖️ Trading Strategy Tips 🔍 Wait for confirmation at the mid-resistance before entering. 🛡️ Place stops below support zones for long positions. 💥 Aggressive short sellers may look to enter near 3,340 with tight stops above. 🧩 Conclusion The asset is in a critical decision zone. Whether it breaks higher toward the resistance or retraces to support will shape the next directional move. Traders should remain cautious, and let price action confirm bias before committing.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ZareeFxTradingAac
4
USD/JPY Poised for Upside: Momentum Building Toward Key TargetsBy examining the USD/JPY chart on the daily timeframe, we can see that the price is currently trading around 144. Given the momentum, I expect this pair to rise soon. The potential bullish targets are 145.5, 147.35, and 148.65 respectively. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
6
Trading Strategy (XAUUSD) – May 27, 2025The situation unfolded after President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on European goods starting June 1st—a move he later postponed to July 9th to allow more time for negotiations. However, sentiment remains cautious as investors closely monitor global developments—including the growing U.S. budget deficit, ongoing trade negotiations, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine—all of which could influence gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Investors are currently awaiting the release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and the PCE inflation data on Friday for further insight into the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook. XAUUSD Trading Strategy Around Key Price Levels: SELL XAUUSD around 3363–3365 Stoploss: 3370 Take Profit 1: 3358 Take Profit 2: 3352 Take Profit 3: 3348 BUY XAUUSD around 3326–3328 Stoploss: 3320 Take Profit 1: 3332 Take Profit 2: 3338 Take Profit 3: 3342 Note: Always set a Stoploss in all situations for safety.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
Bears Win the Battle for GoldGold had been stuck between the orange downward trendline and the shorter-term upward trend channel (white), with a decisive move imminent as discussed in earlier posts. That decision now appears to favor the bears, as the upward trend channel has broken. Following the break, gold quickly dropped to the 3,270–3,290 support zone, which is currently being tested. This zone also includes the 200-hour moving average, adding to its significance. The main support to watch is the yellow trendline visible at the bottom of the chart, which originates from late December. This trendline currently sits near 3,150 and could be the key medium-term target if bearish pressure continues. In the shorter term, if the 3,270–3,290 zone fails to hold, the next downside target is likely 3,200.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ftdsystem
XAUUSD H4 | Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 3323, a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibo retracement. Our take profit is set at 3266.73, a pullback support that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibo retracement. The stop loss is set at 3366.41, a swing high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:XAUUSDShort
by Tradu
Gold’s Rally Faces Exhaustion: A Technical Pause or Trend ReversTVC:GOLD Gold has been on an impressive bullish run in recent months, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions, inflationary concerns, and macroeconomic uncertainty. However, recent price action suggests that the trend may be entering a critical turning point. Despite strong underlying sentiment, gold has failed to set a new high—often a clear indication of trend fatigue and the potential start of a technical correction. The inability to push beyond resistance signals that gold may be entering what market theorists refer to as an "exhaustion phase." In this phase, bullish momentum begins to slow down as the market runs out of buyers willing to chase higher prices. This often results in a pullback, not necessarily a full reversal, but a pause that allows the market to reset. Volume dynamics also support this view. A decline in volume during recent rallies suggests waning conviction among buyers—a subtle but telling clue that demand may be weakening. From a technical standpoint, if this pullback extends further, gold is likely to test a key structural support zone. This level has historically served as both resistance and support, making it significant not only technically but also psychologically for market participants. This area also aligns with several other technical confluences: a Fibonacci retracement zone (possibly the 38.2% or 50% level), trendline support, and even the potential completion point of a Bullish Bat harmonic pattern. The Bullish Bat pattern, a well-known formation in harmonic trading, is especially worth noting. Based on precise Fibonacci measurements, it typically forecasts a reversal near the 88.6% retracement of the initial XA leg. When this pattern completes near major support and is accompanied by price action confirmation (e.g. bullish engulfing candle, divergence, or base-building), it can offer a high-probability setup for long entries. However, technicals alone are not sufficient. A comprehensive view of the macroeconomic environment is essential. Several factors are in play: upcoming U.S. inflation data, evolving expectations around the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, geopolitical uncertainty, and movements in real bond yields. Any of these variables can either validate or invalidate the technical setup, and traders need to stay alert to news that might affect the overall risk appetite. From a tactical perspective, this is a time for patience. Aggressive entries without confirmation can expose traders to unnecessary risk. Waiting for clear signals near support, aligning trades with higher timeframes, and adhering to disciplined risk management will be essential for success. In conclusion, gold is at a potential inflection point. Whether this is just a healthy correction in a broader uptrend, or the beginning of a deeper shift, remains to be seen. Both technical and fundamental perspectives are required to build a well-informed trading thesis. I welcome your insights—whether you analyze from a chart-based or macroeconomic angle. Let’s continue the conversation, share strategies, and grow together as traders.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
Bullish bounce off 38.2% Fibonacci support?The Gold (XAU/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the pullback resistance. Pivot: 3,262.87 1st Support: 3,208.70 1st Resistance: 3,360.90 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by ICmarkets
2025.05.28 gold analysis This is the daily chart analysis for gold. After an upward move, a broadening descending pattern is forming on the daily chart. For the past four days, price has been supported by the 20-day moving average, with rebounds and pullbacks occurring repeatedly in similar zones. However, with the May 27th candle closing as a bearish candle, it’s wise to approach the market with the possibility of a 20MA retest and potential breakdown in mind. If the 20MA breaks, there's a high probability price will decline to clear the left-hand blue demand zone. At that point, the Ichimoku Cloud support may turn into resistance. Looking at the 2-hour chart, we can see a bounce from the bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud. The key turning point for gold seems to be a break below the cloud. Currently, the important level to watch is around 3286. If the cloud breaks and the low at 3277.8 is breached, the price could fall to the low 3200s or even down to the 3100s. From a bullish perspective, a break above the descending resistance trendline and 3366.5 would be needed to shift the view to bullish. If that trendline is broken, it would signal a breakout from the descending broadening pattern, and a move up to around the 3500 level — where the pattern initially started — could be targeted. Conclusion For now, a bearish approach seems appropriate. A breakdown of the daily 20MA could lead to a sharp drop, and its timing is uncertain. A bullish setup is still premature. It’s better to wait for the descending broadening pattern to be invalidated before considering a long position. The pattern still favors the downside.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Greedy_allday
Potential Head and Shoulders Pattern on XAUUSD (Gold)Chart: XAUUSD (Gold) on the 15-minute timeframe (based on "XAUUSD-15-OANDA" in the image). Pattern: Possible Inverted Head and Shoulders. The image highlights what appears to be a developing head and shoulders pattern. Key Observations: Head and Shoulders Formation: The image indicates a possible left shoulder, a head, and what could become a right shoulder. Fibonacci Retracement: There's a Fibonacci retracement level of 0.618 marked from the head to the potential right shoulder. Trendline: A downward-sloping trendline connects the highs of the pattern. Support/Resistance Levels: Horizontal yellow lines suggest potential support or resistance areas.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by OctoAlgo_indicator
GOLD HUNTER MODE: XAUUSD H1 OUTLOOK + DAILY PLAN (May 26, 2025)Hey GoldFxMinds crew! 🌟 Hope you’re ready for a fresh week with the kind of sniper focus that turns confusion into clarity. Let’s break down Monday’s key levels and structure, so you trade with confidence, not hope. Current price: ~3358 Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish, but caution is king as price sits at the top of a major H1 range. 🟤 PREMIUM ZONES – SELL INTEREST 🔻 3358–3368 H1 premium supply zone (last week’s local high + FVG unfilled) Price hit premium, strong reactions likely 🦅 Eyes on — watch this area for potential sharp rejections or fakeout spikes! 🔻 3380–3395 M15/M30 extension, just above the current HH, in unmitigated OB + FVG High risk for wicks and “bull trap” inducement 🦅 Aggressive sellers: this is your upper defense — don’t get faked! 🟢 DISCOUNT ZONES – BUY INTEREST 🟩 3325–3335 H1 demand/FVG + retest zone, previous breakout base CHoCH confirmed, so first bounce possible here 🦅 Eyes on — look for bullish PA or quick rebounds, but wait for confirmation! 🟩 3295–3312 M15/M30 deep demand, oversold last week, zone of confluence with 50 EMA If price nukes through first demand, this is the next major long trigger 🦅 This is where real buyers step in — be patient, don’t rush! 🟠 INTRADAY MID-ZONE ⚡ 3340–3348 Intraday equilibrium, lots of chop expected Not ideal for entries; instead, use this zone to judge direction after NY open 🦅 Eyes on — let price tell the story, don’t force trades in the middle! 📊 STRUCTURE RECAP (H1 + M15/M30 Confluence) Bullish structure intact above 3325–3330, but buyers need to defend each demand zone or we retrace lower. Premium zones above 3358 are loaded with liquidity and can reverse fast. If price fakes out above 3368–3395 and rejects hard, expect a selloff to next demand. If buyers defend 3325–3335 with a strong CHoCH/BOS, we can see a new impulse leg higher. 👋 Final Note: Watch, Don’t Chase! This is a week for patient, sniper-style entries. Watch the 3358–3368 zone like a hawk — every wick, every fakeout counts! Don’t get trapped in the chop; let price come to your key POIs and wait for confirmation. If you found this plan helpful, smash that like, follow, and drop your questions or thoughts below! Your feedback fuels the next level of analysis. Let’s crush the week, team! 🚀 — GoldFxMinds
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by GoldFxMinds
8