OIL & The Buffet TradeMARKETSCOM:OIL & The Buffet Trade
From a Technical View I see the Inverse Head & Shoulder playing out.
Current economic catalyst may be the reason why this very common technical pattern plays out, I'll be trading it on the way up.
The GOAT Buffet is all in NYSE:OXY which says a lot.
Commodities
Gold prices under pressure from profit takingAt the beginning of the trading session on January 13 (US time), the world gold price fell sharply due to the high demand for profit-taking in the market after the price increased continuously in recent sessions. In addition, the USD also increased sharply. The DXY index reached 109.9 points, the highest level in 2 years.
However, according to analysts, in the last sessions of last week, the gold price continuously approached the level of 2,700 USD/ounce, showing positive signals for the precious metal in the future, despite the great resistance of the recovering USD and the rising US Treasury bond yields.
It can be seen that in the context of many factors against gold, gold is supported by the hedging tool of inflation, financial market fluctuations, economic and geopolitical tensions.
The latest survey results from WisdomTree, an American asset management group, show that the main purpose of using gold in investors' portfolios is "diversification" to spread risks, helping to minimize potential risks in other investments.
Gold prices will fluctuate strongly when Trump takes officeGold prices fluctuated violently today when the USD Index reached 109.35 points, helping the value of the USD increase to its highest level in the past 2 years.
On the other hand, bond interest rates also increased to nearly 4.8%, which encouraged many people to invest in this investment channel. Since then, very little money has flowed into the gold market. Today's gold price has taken on additional disadvantages.
Under pressure from the USD and US bonds, speculators may think that holding gold is disadvantageous. Therefore, many people have sold gold to take profits. Today's gold price has naturally "evaporated" tens of USD/ounce.
Analysts say the international gold market is fluctuating unpredictably due to investors' concerns about financial stability, before Mr. Donald Trump returns to the White House on January 20.
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed lower after facing resistance at the 5-day moving average. As mentioned yesterday, selling at the 5-day moving average was an effective strategy, and since it touched the 5-day line during the pre-market, sell-side trades were easier throughout the day. The daily chart shows continued selling pressure with six consecutive bearish candles. As discussed, it's important to monitor the 120-day moving average support and keep an eye on a potential overshoot down to the 20,300 area.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has crossed above the Signal line (golden cross), but selling pressure persisted. While a death cross has not yet formed, if it does, it could trigger a third wave of selling. Conversely, a failure to form a death cross could lead to a rebound, potentially forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. Avoid chasing sell-offs and focus on range-bound trading strategies. Additionally, today’s CPI release could cause a lower wick and a bullish reversal candle, so caution is advised.
Oil
Crude oil closed lower after facing resistance near its recent high. The $79 level remains a strong resistance zone, and the significant divergence from the moving averages makes it difficult to break above easily. Some correction was expected in this area, and while the price has pulled back, it remains far from the 5-day moving average, suggesting the potential for further declines.
The daily chart indicates support in the $75–$76 range, and a drop to this area should not be ruled out. On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal on the MACD has appeared, but there is still divergence from the zero line, making buying at major support levels a preferable strategy. Selling near $79 remains valid. Additionally, oil inventory data is scheduled for release today, which may influence the market.
Gold
Gold ended with a doji candle, forming a small range after digesting the PPI data. Today’s CPI release is expected to provide a clearer direction for the market. Recent declines in expectations for additional rate cuts have been supporting gold prices. As today’s inflation data impacts Treasury yields, gold’s direction will likely hinge on the bond market's response.
If gold forms a bullish candle today, both the MACD and Signal lines may rise above the zero line, continuing the bullish trend. Conversely, if gold closes with a bearish candle, it is likely to remain within the $2,625–$2,725 range for the time being. On the 240-minute chart, support around $2,680 is key, with the MACD potentially attempting to cross above the Signal line. Failure to form a golden cross could result in further declines. Focus on buying during dips before the CPI release, as this is the most favorable approach today.
Wishing you a successful trading day!
■Trading Strategies for Today
Nasdaq - Bearish Market
-Buy Levels: 20,840 / 20,780 / 20,745 / 20,570
-Sell Levels: 21,015 / 21,070 / 21,120 / 21,190 / 21,320
Oil - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 77.50 / 76.90 / 76.50 / 75.70
-Sell Levels: 78.60 / 79.10 / 79.65 / 80.10
Gold - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 2,683 / 2,674 / 2,666 / 2,661 / 2,654
-Sell Levels: 2,704 / 2,712 / 2,717 / 2,723 / 2,729
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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WIG (Warszawa, PL) to Gold (in ounces), 1M (Heikin-Ashi)Dear Everyone,
Today, one more time I present the wide index in Warszawa (PL) in relation to Gold prices (of an ounce). Of course, the price is using monthly candles with Heiki-Ashi preparation. So, there is presented bigger timeframe.
As we could see, there is a real possibility to buid an inverse Head-&-Shoulders pattern. But, we will see, what future will bring to us. The prices in Warszawa could stay in relation to Gold at current levels even to March or May. But the chart seems to be very promising for the second half of the year and next year.
However, we need to keep in mind as there is also other element: Gold prices. Let's remember that when we have (now) the time of real positive interest rates (read as: cash shortage), there is a question if the prices of Gold would be only higher and higher - IMHO that's slighthly controversial thesis.
As always, with best regards to you all,
Paweł
XAUUSD: 1H MA200 rebound.Gold is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.885, MACD = 7.900, ADX = 30.745) as it is consolidating between the 1H MA50 and 1H MA200. Since yesterday, it has found support on the latter. The 1H RSI is rebounding in the same way it did on January 6th, which was the previous HL of the Channel Up. This indicates that it is a buy opportunity. The two bullish waves before both hit their 1.618 Fibonacci extensions to form a HH at the top of the Channel Up. Consequently, we turn bullish on Gold now, aiming at the 1.618 Fib (TP = 2,720) which conveniently falls a little under the R1 level.
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GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Great day on the charts today with Gold recovering from yesterdays drop, perfectly inline with our plans to buy dips.
Our 4h chart idea Bullish target 2694 was hit at the start of the week and now our bearish target also complete at 2665. No lock on either weighted level and therefore playing between both levels in this range. We need ema5 to cross and lock above or below the weighted Goldturns to determine the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2694 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2694 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2726
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2726 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2753
BEARISH TARGETS
2665 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2665 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2633
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2633 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2600
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Will gold’s bullish trend change today?
On the daily line, the daily line continues to be positive for four consecutive times, and the price is effectively running above the short-term moving average and the Bollinger Middle Track. Even if there is a pullback, the shape remains the same. This is enough to show that the advantage of the bulls has not changed. The current short-term moving average has moved upward again. Forming support, other cyclical indicators maintain a bullish arrangement, and the Bollinger Bands as a whole continue to extend upward. In addition, the macd indicator double-line golden cross upward form shows sufficient upward potential. Therefore, overall on the daily line, bulls will reach new highs. High probability. In terms of the 4-hour, after the shock consolidation of the US market last Friday, it can be confirmed that gold has stabilized at 2665. This is enough to be reflected from the fact that a long lower shadow big positive line was collected during the US market. In addition, the current short-term moving average forms an upward pattern at 2685 and 2678, and other periodic indicators also show a bullish arrangement. In addition, the Bollinger Bands open upward as a whole, and the MACD indicator double lines are in a golden cross upward pattern, showing sufficient upward momentum. Therefore, the overall 4-hour level should be dominated by bulls.
For the operation strategy of gold at the beginning of this week, it is recommended to continue to do more at low levels and short at high levels. For the support and resistance below, pay attention to the 2685-2680 area first, and continue to look at the 2700-2710 area above in the short term. If it is broken by the bears, then focus on 2673 and 2664. In particular, the latter, as the negative drop point of non-agricultural data, will become the strongest defense of the bears. Long orders need to be decisively arranged above. For the upper resistance, pay attention to the vicinity of 2703 first, and then pay attention to the area of 2712. You can try short-term shorting when it is touched for the first time.
In terms of gold's short-term operation ideas today, our team recommends mainly longs at the low levels of the correction, supplemented by shorts at the rebound highs. The top short-term focus is on the 2700-2710 first-line resistance, and the bottom short-term focus is on the 2665-2660 first-line support
Gold operation strategy:
1. Gold retreats to the 2663-2665 line, cover positions and buy long, stop loss at 2655, target 2690 line, break the position and look at 2704-2707 line
2. Gold rebounded for the first time, sell short at the 2710-2712 line, stop loss at 2720, target the 2665-2670 line, and look at the 2653-2658 line if the position is broken;
WTI Crude Oil Probes Trend Line Resistance at 5-Month HighsChart Analysis:
WTI Crude Oil is approaching a pivotal juncture as it tests the long-term descending trendline resistance, while short-term momentum remains firmly bullish.
1️⃣ Downtrend Resistance (Red Line):
Prices are testing the multi-month descending trendline resistance near $78.
A breakout above this level could signal a shift in the broader bearish structure.
2️⃣ Moving Averages:
50-day SMA (blue): Rising steadily at $70.51, providing dynamic support for the recent uptrend.
200-day SMA (red): Flattening around $75.06, aligning with the key breakout zone.
3️⃣ Momentum Indicators:
RSI: At 72.05, indicating overbought conditions, which could precede a short-term pullback.
MACD: Bullish momentum is intact, with the MACD line above the signal line and accelerating in positive territory.
What to Watch:
A sustained break above the descending trendline and the 200-day SMA could pave the way for a test of $82-$85 resistance levels.
Overbought RSI warrants caution; traders should monitor for bearish divergences or signs of exhaustion.
Failure to break above resistance could see prices retrace toward the 50-day SMA or $74 support.
WTI Crude is at a critical crossroads, where a breakout could signal a trend reversal, while failure to sustain above resistance might reinforce the longer-term bearish bias.
-MW
USOIL: Key Levels and Trend Direction AnalysisUSOIL Analysis
The price has stabilized above the pivot line and closed the daily candle above it, indicating a continuation of the bullish trend gradually toward 75.35. A retest of 72.75 is possible before pushing up again.
On the other hand, a 4-hour candle closing below 72.74 would confirm a bearish trend, targeting 71.78.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 73.40
Resistance Levels: 74.40, 75.35, 76.10
Support Levels: 72.74, 71.78, 70.50
Trend outlook:
Bullish: While above 72.75
Bearish: If 72.74 is broken
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TradeTech Analysis
SILVER Will Fall! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for SILVER.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 29.780.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 28.792 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-14 : Harami/Inside PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets will stay somewhat flat/sideways related to building a base.
Yesterday, 1-13, my broad cycle patterns suggested the markets would establish a "base" - leading to a "peak" on 1-18 and a major top on 1-20. Because of this, I believe the markets will attempt to melt upward into a peaking pattern (with the SPY possibly reach 595-598) before stalling out ahead of the Inauguration event.
Gold and Silver may follow this trend after stalling a bit today. Overall, I believe Gold & Silver will move upward attempting to hedge against global risk factors playing out over the next 30+ days.
Bitcoin rejected the breakdown move yesterday - setting up another attempt at a THIRD sideways FLAG formation in an EPP pattern. This is very unusual - but given what the markets have been doing over the past 30 days - it is what it is.
More than likely, we'll see Bitcoin rally a bit higher (near $100k), then stall again and attempt another breakdown event.
Yesterday's new low suggests a breakdown is likely.
Get some.
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Gold may continue to fall
The gold price has been in a wide range of fluctuations in the near future, forming a clear descending wedge (blue downward trend line) and an ascending channel (red trend line). The current gold price is running around the 2,668 level, showing certain short-term correction pressure.
At present, we can clearly see the correction path of gold from the previous high to the low. The price is currently hovering between the 0.618 ($2,670) and 0.5 ($2,654) levels, showing that this area is a key point for both bulls and bears to fight over. If the price continues to fail to break through the 0.618 level, it may usher in a larger decline, with the target possibly pointing to the support level of 0.382 ($2,637) or even 0.236 ($2,617).
The hourly rising channel shows that gold as a whole still maintains a mild upward trend, but recently the price has shown significant signs of a correction after encountering resistance at the upper edge of the upper channel. The price has failed to test this resistance area several times and then moved downward, indicating that this level is an important resistance area. The key support level below can focus on the lower edge of the red channel and the price corresponding to Fibonacci 0.236.
In the short term, if the gold price falls below $2,654, it will confirm the head and shoulders top pattern (implying left shoulder, head and right shoulder structure), further opening up the downside space, with the target pointing to the $2,617 to $2,584 area. However, if the metal can once again break above $2,670 and hold above it, it could resume its upward momentum and test the previous highs.
Overall, the current gold price is in a stage of long-short tug-of-war, and we need to pay close attention to the breakthrough of the Fibonacci key levels and channel boundaries. From the perspective of trading strategy, in the short term, we can focus on the breakthrough direction of the $2,654 and $2,670 areas, adjust positions and maintain flexibility.
GOLD Is Going Up! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 2,621.75.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 2,686.96 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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XAU/USD : Reasons for Falling! (READ THE CAPTION)In the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that after reaching $2697 and hitting all targets last Friday, gold eventually closed around the $2690 zone. Today, gold showed a bearish sentiment, dropping by over 300 pips and correcting to as low as $2664.
Currently, gold is trading around $2670, and if it stabilizes below this level within the next 4 hours, further declines can be expected. Potential bearish targets are $2663, $2658.8, and $2652.5, respectively.
This analysis will be updated soon, so stay tuned for a trading setup in the lower timeframes!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Sugar Up for a Potential RallySugar prices have reached a strong demand zone around 1825–1830, a major support level. The price action suggests potential accumulation, with buyers likely stepping in. A rebound could target the 1983 level as the next resistance.
A sustained breakout above 1983 could open the door for further upside momentum, while a failure to hold 1825 may signal increased bearish activity.
Follow up for results.