XAUUSD Gold in Overdrive: Awaiting a Critical Pullback for a BuyDaily Chart Analysis
On the daily chart, XAUUSD has surged to new highs, signaling an overextended market as gold rallies far above previous price swings. The price is now trading at a premium, which indicates that much of the bullish momentum may already be priced in. As a result, there is potential for a pullback toward a more attractive entry area. Specifically, a retracement into a discounted zone—ideally below the 50% level of the previous swing—may offer a better long opportunity rather than entering at these extended levels. 📈⚠️
4-Hour Chart Analysis
Examining the 4-hour timeframe reveals more granular price action that aligns with the daily trend. Here, gold displays signs of potential exhaustion with the recent impulsive moves. The market structure hints at the possibility of a short-term setup if the price begins to reverse, aligning with basic Wyckoff theory principles. This suggests that while there might be an interim short play if the reversal is confirmed, the expectation remains that a healthy pullback will eventually pave the way for a new long opportunity once the price finds support. 🔻🤔
Integrating Price Action, Market Structure & Wyckoff Theory
Using elements of Wyckoff theory, it's clear that the current rally has pushed the market into an overbought state.
• The price action indicates a likely initiation of a distribution phase, where selling pressure might temporarily take over.
• A pullback into the discounted zone (particularly under the 50% retracement of the prior range) would be an ideal opportunity to look for a buying setup.
• On the flip side, if the shorter-term setup solidifies, a conservative short play could be considered until signs of accumulation emerge.
This dual perspective underscores the importance of disciplined risk management and monitoring short-term reversals while keeping an eye on the broader trend. 🔍📉💡
Summary of Key Takeaways
XAUUSD is currently overextended with a strong rally to new highs. While the momentum is robust, the premium pricing compared to previous swings suggests caution. A pullback into a discounted zone, specifically below the 50% retracement level, could provide a more enticing entry point for those looking to go long. Concurrently, the 4-hour chart offers potential setups for a short play should price action indicate a reversal. Coupling these observations with Wyckoff theory fundamentals can allow for a balanced, dynamic trading strategy. 🔄
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any trading decisions.
Commodities
SILVER Will Grow! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
SILVER is trading in an
Uptrend and the price is
Now consolidating above
The horizontal support
Of 31.80$ and as we are
Bullish biased we will be
Expecting a further bullish
Move up
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Channel Down bottomed. Buy opportunity.WTI Crude Oil is heavily bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 38.039, MACD = -2.310, ADX = 38.046) as it is trading inside a Channel Down for more than 1 year. Last week's low has made a technical LL at the bottom of the pattern and the current consolidation indicates that this may be an attempt to initiate the new bullish wave. The 1D RSI recovered from being oversold previously and this potentially hints to a rebound over the 1D MA200. The last bullish wave crossed above the 0.618 Fibonacci marginally. Trade: long, TP = 71.00.
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GS raises gold target to $4,000, UBS to $3,500 Goldman Sachs and UBS have issued another round of bullish forecasts for gold, citing ongoing market uncertainty (i.e., tariffs).
Goldman analysts now expect gold to reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, with a potential rise to $4,000 by mid-2026. UBS holds a slightly more conservative view, projecting $3,500 by December 2025.
Technically, gold has pulled back from new all-time highs seen during the Asian session but potentially remains in a strong uptrend. With prices trading well above both the 50-day EMA and 200-day EMA, shallow retracements may find support, especially as tariff-related risks persist for at least the next 90 days.
XAUUSD Market Update – April 14, 2025🟡 XAUUSD Market Update – April 14, 2025 (End of NY)
🔍 Market Structure Overview
Trend (HTF): Still bullish on H4 with a strong impulsive leg from 3120 → 3248. Current pullback is testing premium zone around 3205–3215.
LTF Structure: M15-H1 shows a textbook liquidity sweep + internal CHoCH, followed by BOS. Price is currently in a reaccumulation phase between 3205 and 3215.
Range: Price is bouncing between the weak high @ 3247 and key support zone @ 3172–3180. Volume thinning out during late NY.
🧠 Key Observations
Fakeout sweep @ 3215: Clear internal liquidity grab followed by CHoCH on M5–M15, triggering short-term upside.
3209 Entry Zone Rejected: Price swept that level without reaction — confirms liquidity engineering.
Premium Distribution Active: H4 OB + FVG zone between 3233–3247 still unmitigated — price may revisit before broader move.
Daily FVG below: Unmitigated bullish gap around 3172–3180, aligning with M30-H1 demand and FIB 61.8 retracement.
🔵 Mitigated Zones
🔹 3205–3210 (EQ zone from earlier CHoCH): Fully mitigated.
🔹 3188 (micro OB): Mitigated and invalidated — no longer valid.
🔹 3215 (fakeout + sweep): Fully played.
🔴 Unmitigated Zones
🔸 3233–3247 (H1–H4 OB + Premium + FVG): 🔥 Active supply area.
🔸 3172–3180 (Daily Imbalance + H1 demand): Strong bounce candidate.
🔸 3120–3130 (Deep discount + demand): Only if a deeper correction forms.
🧭 Current Bias
Short-term bullish into potential rejections near 3225–3233.
Overall market still bullish, but a correction toward 3172–3180 is healthy before continuation.
⚠️ What to Watch
3233–3247: If price spikes into this supply area and shows M5/M15 CHoCH → potential reversal.
3215–3220: Micro liquidity zone may induce late buyers → be cautious.
3172–3180: Strong bounce or continuation zone — RSI confluence and clean M30 imbalance.
🧾 Summary
XAUUSD is currently consolidating between key supply (3233–3247) and demand (3172–3180). Price is sweeping intraday liquidity, hinting at another attempt toward the upper zone before a deeper correction. Patience is key — sniper entries only around the unmitigated OBs with clear M5 confirmation.
Stay sharp, stay selective. Don’t chase, let price come to your zone.
🔔 Like this style of analysis? Drop a comment, follow and subscribe, or share your views with the community. Let’s grow together. 🫱🏽🫲🏽
#GoldMinds #XAUUSD #SmartMoney #FVG #SniperEntry
Bullish continuation?XAU/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 3,156.20
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 3,083.60
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 3,242.52
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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Choose to go short at high levels for crude oilThe price of crude oil is still fluctuating within a range and lacks clear directional momentum. The outlook remains bearish until it breaks through the $63.70 mark or there are clear factors stimulating demand. In the short term, the trend of oil prices is likely to remain confined to the current range. In terms of trading suggestions, it is advisable to mainly go short and go long as a supplement.
Oil trading strategy:
sell @ 61.90-62.10
sl 62.80
tp 61.20-61.00
If you approve of my analysis, you can give it a thumbs-up as support. If you have different opinions, you can leave your thoughts in the comments.
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Great start to the week with our chart idea playing out, as analysed.
We started of with our bearish target hit at 3230 followed with ema5 cross and lock below 3230 opening 3201, which was hit perfectly and followed with the weighted bounce of over 40 pips inline with our plans to buy dips.
We will now either look for support above this Goldturn level for a continuation above or a cross and lock below 3201 will open the Goldturn level below.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3261
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3261 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3292
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3292 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3324
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3324 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3352
BEARISH TARGETS
3230 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3230 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3201 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3021 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE
3179
3152
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3167 WILL OPEN THE SWING RNGE
3120
3094
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2975 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3069 - 3038
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
SILVER My Opinion! SELL!`
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the SILVER next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 32.295
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 30.783
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NZD/USD Approaches 0.5900 – Critical Test for Bulls Ahe🧭 Overview:
The NZD/USD pair showed notable bullish strength on Monday, April 14, 2025, opening at 0.5830, hitting a high of 0.5900, and closing near 0.5885. This upward movement marks a potential shift in sentiment after a prolonged period of consolidation, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and increased risk appetite among investors.
📈 Current Market Structure:
The pair broke above the consolidation range and is now trading near a key resistance zone around the 200-day moving average. The recent bullish candle indicates strong buyer momentum, suggesting that a medium-term trend reversal may be underway.
🔹 Key Resistance Levels:
0.5900: Psychological level and the 200-day SMA. A daily close above this may confirm a shift in long-term trend.
0.5955: A former swing high, acting as the next resistance for bulls.
0.6000 – 0.6040: Major resistance zone. A breakout here could confirm full bullish reversal and open room for extended gains.
🔸 Key Support Levels:
0.5823: Recent swing low and intraday support. Holding above this level maintains short-term bullish bias.
0.5760: Intermediate support. A break below this could expose the pair to deeper corrections.
0.5700: Major support level, aligning with previous structure lows from February 2024.
Source: DailyFX, Investing.com
📐 Price Action Patterns:
Recent bullish candles have broken key resistance within a sideways range, indicating increased demand for the kiwi dollar. The breakout above 0.5850 confirms momentum, while the lack of overbought signals on RSI and MACD crossover further support the continuation of the move. However, price faces a major test at the 0.5900 area.
🔮 Potential Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Scenario:
If NZD/USD maintains above 0.5823 and successfully breaks above 0.5900, the pair could extend gains toward 0.5955 and 0.6000. This scenario may be supported by weaker U.S. dollar sentiment and stabilization in global risk sentiment.
❌ Bearish Scenario:
If the pair fails to hold above 0.5823, it may decline toward 0.5760. A break below this level opens the door to test 0.5700, which would invalidate the current bullish breakout structure.
📌 Conclusion:
NZD/USD is showing signs of bullish recovery, supported by a breakout above consolidation and increased technical momentum. The area around 0.5900 will be critical — a successful close above it could mark the beginning of a new bullish phase. Traders should watch price action closely near this resistance zone and adjust strategies accordingly.
🗓️ Note: This analysis is based on market data available as of April 14, 2025. Always follow up with the latest price action and news events before making trading decisions.
XAU/USD Weekly Outlook Liquidity Grab Before Next Move📌 XAU/USD Weekly Outlook: Range-Bound Behavior Hints at Potential Liquidity Grab Before Next Move 💰📊
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently consolidating within a broad 30-point price channel between 3,216 and 3,246. Price action shows clear indecision, as bulls and bears wrestle for control without confirmation of a breakout or breakdown.
While the overall trend remains bullish, momentum has softened compared to last week. Technical indicators are signaling overbought conditions, and a deeper liquidity sweep is becoming increasingly probable. Traders should remain patient and watch for clearer signals during the upcoming European session.
🔍 Market Structure Highlights
Upside Barriers: 3,246 (ATH), 3,255, 3,268, 3,285, 3,302
Downside Supports: 3,216, 3,195, 3,172, 3,152, 3,120
📈 Trade Opportunity Zones
Potential Long Setup:
Buy Zone: 3,172 – 3,170
Stop Loss: 3,166
ls: 3,176 | 3,180 | 3,184 | 3,188 | 3,192 | 3,196 | 3,200
Potential Short Setup:
Sell Zone: 3,268 – 3,270
Stop Loss: 3,274
Target Levels: 3,264 | 3,260 | 3,256 | 3,252 | 3,248 | 3,244 | 3,240
🧭 Weekly Strategy Insight
With no significant economic data on the calendar this week, price movements will likely be driven by intraday liquidity and order flow. Focus should be placed on the London and New York sessions, where volume tends to peak and directional bias becomes more evident.
Current market behavior suggests that a fake-out or liquidity trap could develop before the next significant move. Traders are advised to avoid chasing price and instead wait for optimal entries at key zones.
⚠️ Risk Reminder
Even in the absence of major news, volatility remains elevated. Always execute trades with a solid risk plan and predefined TP/SL levels. Protect your capital first — the opportunities will come with patience and discipline. 🛡️
SILVER: Local Bearish Bias! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 32.134 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
GOLD: Strong Bullish Sentiment! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 3.209.40 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 3,236.71.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
GOLD short-term analysis and buying planThe key guidance for gold's trend this week is undoubtedly focused on every subtle change in the tariff news.
In this market, the influence of a tariff news is so great that all previous technical-based analysis and forecasts are instantly invalid. Looking back at the recent market, we can clearly see that in just three days, the price of gold first fell sharply by $211, and then rebounded rapidly, soaring by $275 in three days. Such drastic and frequent price fluctuations are almost entirely driven by various news, which once again highlights the decisive role of news in the current gold market.
From a purely technical analysis perspective, the strong performance of the weekly surge clearly shows that the current market structure is controlled by the bulls. It is worth noting that in the past month or so, the Asian market has formed a unique opening must rise rule. In-depth details of the market, we can find that the low point of gold in the US market, 3220-3215, has become a key watershed between the strength of longs and shorts. When the price runs above this area, the market shows obvious strong characteristics; once the price falls below this area, the market is very likely to turn to a weak pattern.
Similarly, the Asian session retracement low point of 3185-3190 area also constitutes an important dividing line between long and short positions. If the price remains above this area, the bulls will dominate; if it unfortunately falls below, the market is likely to quickly switch to the short mode, and even trigger a rapid plunge. For the upper long target, there is still great uncertainty. Investors can focus on the new high breakthrough in the 3245-3250 area, followed by the 3265-3260 area and the psychologically important $3,300 mark.
As the tariff war continues to deepen, the market generally expects that in the next 1-2 weeks, the gold market will usher in more crazy fluctuations, and its rise and fall is expected to set a new record. We need to be vigilant at all times and respond cautiously to market changes.
Key points:
First support: 3210, second support: 3202, third support: 3192
First resistance: 3246, second resistance: 3263, third resistance: 3300
Operation ideas:
Short-term gold 3206-3209 long, stop loss 3198, target 3240-3250;
Short-term gold 3260-3263 short, stop loss 3272, target 3220-3210;
Gold Wave 5 Bull Complete?! (4H UPDATE)I’m currently eyeing up 2 areas on Gold for short term sells, within the Gold Fund for my investors. Once price reaches 1 of these 2 areas, I can then judge from price action if Gold will finally drop lower as we want, or will bullish momentum kick in again.
POI 1: $3,147📉
POI 2: $3,060📉
Markets are hugely volatile, so we need to monitor minor areas for any potential reversals or continuation of trends.
Gold Market Outlook: Potential Pullback in Play Following Early Early this morning, the gold market opened with a downside gap, potentially signaling the beginning of a corrective phase. With no high-impact economic events on the calendar today, price action may remain sideways or retrace toward the previous session’s low. On the 1-hour timeframe, bearish divergence has already been identified, supporting the case for a short-term pullback.
A similar consolidation phase occurred after the bullish momentum seen from March 11 to March 20. If no unexpected developments influence the market, comparable price behavior could emerge. Overall, conditions suggest a classic breakout–pullback–continuation scenario, which is consistent with typical movements following strong directional trends. A key resistance zone near the 3280 level is currently being observed as a potential target area
XAU/USD: A Huge Fall Ahead? (READ THE CAPTION)By re-examining the gold chart on the 30-minute timeframe, we can see that the price once again moved exactly as expected and finally managed to rise back above $3100, reaching as high as $3136.5! Currently, gold is trading around $3120, and I expect we will soon see further decline in gold. The potential downside targets are $3115, $3105, and $3100 respectively. This analysis will be updated again!
The Last Analysis :
XAUUSD: 14/4 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis
Daily chart resistance 3300, support below 3150-2970
Four-hour chart resistance 3250, support below 3190-3150
One-hour chart resistance 3250, support below 3210
Analysis of gold news: Last week, the gold market staged a thrilling bull carnival, with a strong weekly price increase of $298. Among the many complex factors affecting the trend of gold prices, tariff news is like a "visible hand" that firmly controls the direction of the market.
Judging from the current situation, if the tariff policy is further tightened, the risk aversion sentiment in the global market will inevitably be re-ignited, which will in turn drive the gold price to continue its strong rise. On the contrary, once there is a sign of easing in the tariff policy, the gold market is very likely to reverse in an instant, fall rapidly or even fall into a situation of plummeting. Therefore, the key guidance for the trend of gold this week is undoubtedly focused on every subtle change in the tariff news.
Gold operation suggestions: Last Friday, the technical side of gold continued to fluctuate upward and break through the highs. The US market accelerated to break through and stood above the 3240 mark and closed at a high level. It closed with a big rise for three consecutive trading days. The short-term gold price has completely entered the overbought pattern.
From the current trend analysis, today's upper short-term resistance is around the 3250 mark, and the lower support is the one-hour level 3210 and the four-hour level 3190. In terms of operation, continue to buy in line with the trend when stepping back to this position. At the same time, gold is currently in a serious overbought pattern. Be careful of a sharp correction and decline.
Buy: 3210near SL:3205
Buy: 3190near SL:3185
Buy: 3150near SL:3145
THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG Report we said we would stick with the NFP move and look for price to continue long looking for our target region 3050-55. We were already in the move with the trades protected, however, on open we did get closed at BE only to be able to get a better entry from the undercut low. After the break of the key level and on the flip we managed to then continue with the move upside completing numerous Excalibur targets as well as our bias and red box targets upside.
I can’t say that was an easy week, the move was huge and thankfully we managed to stay the right side of it guided by the in-house indi’s and Excalibur.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
Although further upside is likely, we can’t long here as it’s too dangerous after that stretch last week. So let’s see how the market opens and if the Asia session attempts to test that high again. It’s the first level of 3230 that needs to be watched, support here can push us back upside into the above the key level of 3250-55 which is our ideal level for the hunt. If we can stay below that level we could see a RIP and price attempt the correction many traders are looking for in the early part of the week. The lower levels 3220 need to break as well as then the hurdle of 3210 which will make the correction easier.
Due to low volume news next week, we could see a lot of ranging in anticipation of some geopolitical news which will bring sudden spurts of volume and the movement that we want to see.
3190 is the key level support and also the pattern test region, traders should keep an eye on this level of support for any RIP’s and potential for upside, so if attacked a bounce around there should be on the cards. It’s simply a red box break and close week this week, monitoring the price action and only looking for the longs if we get pullbacks, otherwise, 1-2 decent short opportunities should be enough for the short week.
KOG’s bias of the week:
Bearish below 3265 with targets below 3220, 3210. 3197, 3190 and below that 3170
Bullish on break of 3265 with targets above 3276, 3280, 3285 and above that 3292
RED BOXES:
Break above 3250 for 3255, 3261, 3269, 3275 and 3290 in extension of the move
Break below 3230 for 3220, 3210, 3206, 3195 and 3180 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-14 : Up-Down-Up PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets will move in a moderate upward price trend.
Although I don't expect anything huge today, I do believe the EPP structures/layers support this upward price move and that we'll see the SPY attempt to move back towards/above 550 over time.
The QQQ will likely follow the SPY higher over the next 5+ days.
Don't get too excited about this upward price move because it is structurally moving to setup a PEAK that will transition into a downtrend near April 22-25. This peak will create a downward price flag (a new inverted EPP) structure that will assist in developing a new sideways price structure carrying into June/July.
In other words, it looks like we are trapped between 480-585 on the SPY, and we will likely stay within that wide consolidation range for another 2-3 months.
Gold should attempt to rally this week, trying to break above $3300. I believe this is a critical level for Gold and also presents a breakaway level for Silver near $33.00
Bitcoin has moved into APEX VOLATILITY and will continue to trap BUYERS into believing BTCUSD is breaking away from the consolidation range. This is a BULL TRAP.
I believe BTCUSD will ROLL OVER within about 4-5 days - setting up a big breakdown move as the SPY/QQQ also roll downward in about 5+ days.
We still continue to see volatility and sideways price action. Still lots of opportunities for skilled traders.
Get Some..
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