XAU/USD Trading Plan – Preparing for Volatility Ahead of FOMC! ⚠️This week, all eyes are on the FOMC meeting on March 19, where the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook. Gold remains in a bullish trend, but it has now reached a key resistance zone that could trigger a correction before determining the next move.
⚠ Important Note: This plan is only valid before the FOMC meeting. As the announcement approaches, traders are advised to close their positions to protect their accounts, as high volatility is expected.
🔥 Fundamental Analysis – What to Expect from the FOMC This Time?
📌 1️⃣ The Fed is Expected to Keep Rates at 4.25% - 4.5%, But…
Dot Plot & Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will shape market expectations for the future.
If the Fed remains hawkish, the USD could strengthen, putting pressure on gold.
If the Fed signals a dovish stance, the USD could weaken, potentially pushing gold higher.
📌 2️⃣ Global Central Banks Continue to Buy Gold
China, Russia, Poland, and India continue to increase their gold reserves, reducing their reliance on the USD.
This trend supports long-term bullish prospects for gold, although there could be short-term corrections.
📉 Technical Analysis – Key Levels for XAU/USD
🔹 Main Trend: Bullish, but facing strong resistance.
🔹 Price Channel: Gold is still in an uptrend, but a short-term correction may occur.
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
📍 Resistance:
3,055 - 3,071 – If gold fails to break through this level, a correction could follow.
📍 Support:
3,021 - 3,009 – Watch this area in case of a pullback.
2,986 - 2,948 (FVG Zone on H1) – A deeper liquidity level if selling pressure increases.
🎯 Trading Plan – Pre-FOMC Strategy
BUY ZONE: 3010 - 3008
SL: 3004
TP: 3015 - 3020 - 3024 - 3028 - 3032
SELL ZONE: 3054 - 3056
SL: 3060
TP: 3050 - 3046 - 3042 - 3038 - 3030
⚠ Important Warning:
Ahead of the FOMC, consider closing all positions to avoid unnecessary risks, as market reactions can be unpredictable.
🔥 A major wave from the FOMC is coming – trade wisely and protect your capital! 🚀
Commodities
Best GOLD XAUUSD Consolidation Trading Strategy Explained
In article , you will learn how to identify and trade consolidation on Gold easily.
I will share with you my consolidation trading strategy and a lot of useful XAUUSD trading tips.
1. How to Identify Consolidation
In order to trade consolidation, you should learn to recognize that.
The best and reliable way to spot consolidation is to analyse a price action.
Consolidation is the state of the market when it STOPS updating higher highs & higher lows in a bullish trend OR lower lows & lower highs in a bearish trend.
In other words, it is the situation when the market IS NOT trending.
Most of the time, during such a period, the price forms a horizontal channel.
Above is a perfect example of a consolidation on Gold chart on a daily.
We see a horizontal parallel channel with multiple equal or almost equal highs and lows inside.
For a correct trading of a consolidation, you should correctly underline its boundaries.
Following the chart above, the upper boundary - the resistance, is based on the highest high and the highest candle close.
The lowest candle close and the lowest low compose the lower boundary - the support.
2. What Consolidation Means
Spotting the consolidating market, it is important to understand its meaning and the processes that happen inside.
Consolidation signifies that the market found a fair value.
Growth and bullish impulses occur because of the excess of demand on the market, while bearish moves happen because of the excess of supply.
When supply and demand find a balance, sideways movements start .
Look at the price movements on Gold above.
First, the market was rising because of a strong buying pressure.
Finally, the excess of buying interest was curbed by the sellers.
The market started to trade with a sideways range and found the equilibrium
At some moment, demand started to exceed the supply again and the consolidation was violated . The price updated the high and continued growth.
Usually, the violation of the consolidation happens because of some fundamental event that makes the market participants reassess the value of the asset.
At the same time, the institutional traders, the smart money accumulate their trading positions within the consolidation ranges. As the accumulation completes, they push the prices higher/lower, violating the consolidation.
3. How to Trade Consolidation
Once you identified a consolidation on Gold, there are 2 strategies to trade it.
The resistance of the consolidation provides a perfect zone to sell the market from. You simply put your stop loss above the resistance and your take profit should be the upper boundary of the support.
That is the example of a long trade from support of the consolidation on Gold.
The support of the sideways movement will be a safe zone to buy Gold from. Stop loss will lie below the support zone, take profit will be the lower boundary of the resistance.
AS the price reached a take profit level and tested a resistance, that is a short trade from that.
You can follow such a strategy till the price violates the consolidation and establishes a trend.
The market may stay a very extended period of time in sideways, providing a lot of profitable trading opportunities.
What I like about Gold consolidation trading is that the strategy is very straightforward and completely appropriate for beginners.
It works on any time frame and can be used for intraday, swing trading and scalping
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I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
USOIL BULLISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| LONG
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 66.30
Target Level: 67.73
Stop Loss: 65.34
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 4h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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FOMC today ?World gold prices increased by 3 USD, to 3,030 USD/ounce. In the US trading session (night of March 18), gold at one point rose to a record high of 3,035.4 USD/ounce. The safe haven demand for gold has pushed prices to a record high. Investors are worried about the increase in global trade wars and new geopolitical developments between countries, so they have bought gold.
Israel launched airstrikes across the Gaza Strip early Tuesday morning, killing at least 400 Palestinians, including women and children, according to hospital officials. The surprise bombing broke a ceasefire that had been in place since January and threatened to completely reignite the 17-month war. Over the weekend, the US attacked Houthi targets in the Middle East and vowed to attack more.
In addition, investors are now watching the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon. The market is not expected to make any changes to interest rates at this meeting, but will closely analyze the wording of the FOMC statement and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference.
GOLD market Update: BUY DIPS 2990 USD TP 3100 USD🏆 Gold Market Update / Wednesday
📊 Technical Outlook
🔸Bullish OUTLOOK
🔸5 waves Bullish Sequence on H1
🔸2846/2930 w1, 2930/2887 w2, 2887/3045 w3
🔸3045-3055/2980-2990 wave 4 pullback now
🔸2980-2990/3100 - final wave 5 pump
🔸Recommend to BUY DIPS 2980/2990 USD
🔸Price Target BULLS: 3100 USD in Wave5
🏆🔥 Latest Gold Market Update – March 2025 🔥🏆
🚀 Gold Prices Hit New Highs!
💰 Gold Breaks $3,040+ – Soaring to record levels as investors seek safe-haven assets. 🏦✨📈
📊 Analysts Raise Targets – UBS forecasts $3,200 by June amid strong bullish momentum. 🔮💎
🌎 Key Market Drivers:
⚠️ Geopolitical Tensions Rising – Middle East conflicts fuel gold’s safe-haven appeal. 🌍🔥
📉 Stock Market Volatility – Investors flee equities, boosting gold demand. 📊📢
Defensive Sector with Growth PotentialSupporting Arguments
Current Market Uncertainty Sustains Demand for the Defensive Sector. NEE represents the defensive utility sector. Given the current political and economic uncertainty in the market, there could be an additional catalyst for the company's stock price growth.
Demand for Green Energy from the IT Sector. More than 80% of the company's portfolio consists of renewable energy sources (RES). Demand from data centers in the IT sector may allow the company to outperform competitors.
Attractive Valuation Levels and Technical Outlook
Investment Thesis
NextEra Energy (NEE) has strong long-term growth prospects due to the increasing demand for RES and the electrification of various sectors. Their integrated business model, combining the regulated utility business FPL and the competitive renewable energy business NEER, ensures both stability and growth opportunities. NEE's leadership in RES production, along with investments in battery energy storage and gas infrastructure, allows the company to benefit from the growing demand for clean energy solutions.
Current Market Uncertainty Could Drive Stock Price Growth. Tariffs imposed by the administration on imports and their potential impact on the U.S. economy remain in investors' focus. The market has responded to high uncertainty with a significant correction in overheated sectors, and pressure may persist for some time. As a representative of the utility sector, NEE benefits from uncertainty and may continue its growth.
Demand for Green Energy from the IT Sector. The largest public companies continue to increase capital expenditures on AI infrastructure to stay competitive. A key component of such infrastructure is data centers, which consume large amounts of energy and contribute to increased environmental pollution. As a result, data center owners create strong demand for companies that provide access to RES. More than 80% of the company’s portfolio consists of renewable energy sources. Already, the company’s annual profit growth rate is twice as high as that of its competitors.
Attractive Valuation Levels and Technical Outlook. The company's stock is trading at the 200-day moving average and recently rebounded from the resistance line at the 50-day moving average, which could serve as a strong catalyst for movement toward the previous peak of $84.8. Based on the forward PEG ratio, the company is trading at about the same level as companies engaged in traditional energy sources for household supply, while maintaining profitability 5-15% higher than competitors. Based on the forward P/E ratio, the company appears cheaper than its closest direct competitors (18x vs. 20.5x).
Our target price is $82, with a "Buy" recommendation. We recommend setting a stop-loss at $64
Hellena | GOLD (4H): LONG to 161.8% Fibo lvl area at 3038.Dear colleagues, I believe that the upward movement is not over yet. The bulls have gained strength and the upward five-wave movement is not over yet!
I expect that the wave “3” of senior and middle order is not yet complete. Possible correction to the area of 2955.837, then I expect an upward movement to the area of 161.8% Fibonacci extension 3038.730.
As usual - the upward movement is in priority, so I do not recommend short positions, but I recommend long limit pending orders.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Gaza conflict and Trump tariffs push GOLD higher againOANDA:XAUUSD rose more than 1% on Tuesday to a new record high and are currently trading around $3,035/oz, close to yesterday's peak. Trade uncertainty due to rising tensions in the Middle East and US President Trump's tariff plans have boosted investor demand for safe-haven assets.
Israeli airstrikes kill more than 400 in Gaza
Early Tuesday morning local time, the Israeli military carried out heavy airstrikes on Gaza City in the northern Gaza Strip, Deir el Balah, the Nusayrat refugee camp in the central Gaza Strip, as well as Khan Yunis and Rafah in the south.
The British news agency Reuters reported that Israeli airstrikes killed more than 400 people in Gaza, threatening a two-month ceasefire.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the airstrikes were carried out because Hamas has repeatedly refused to release Israeli detainees. Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that if Hamas does not release the detainees, "our attacks will intensify."
Hamas said Israel's move was a unilateral end to the ceasefire, leaving Israelis held in Gaza "to face an unknown fate."
There were unconfirmed reports that an Iranian vessel collecting intelligence during the Gaza offensive was sunk by US forces, escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Saudi media reported on Tuesday that the Iranian Navy's most advanced intelligence ship, the Zagros, was hit by an unidentified missile in the Red Sea on Monday evening local time, causing its hull to be damaged, leaking and sinking.
World Media reported that the US military was then attacking Houthi armed forces in the area outside the Red Sea, while the Israel Defense Forces conducted a large-scale bombing of Gaza, and the origin of the missile that hit the Iranian naval vessel could not be determined.
Trump's Tariffs
Meanwhile, US President Trump has proposed a series of US tariff plans, including a 25% flat tariff on steel and aluminum (which took effect in February), as well as reciprocal tariffs and sectoral tariffs that will be applied on April 2.
Trump said he would impose general reciprocal tariffs on April 2, with additional tariffs targeting specific industries. Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday that both tariffs would be applied to foreign goods imported into the United States “under certain circumstances,” “They tax us, we tax them, and then we’ll tax other industries beyond autos, steel, aluminum.”
Ultimately, Gold is often considered a safe investment in times of economic or geopolitical uncertainty, and in the current environment, it is still fundamentally well supported.
There are also many other supports such as demand from central banks, national reserves, and ETF volumes, the decline of the Dollar, the Fed's monetary policy, etc. Readers can review previous publications for more information.
Technical outlook analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, although the RSI is operating in the overbought area, it has not shown any signal to indicate a significant downside correction. A signal for a correction is a crossover of the RSI below 80.
Meanwhile, the sustained price action above the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level is a positive signal with the expectation of further upside and the next target is the 0.618% Fibonacci extension position at the price point of $3,065.
Currently, there is no notable resistance ahead, so until the level of 3,065 USD gold can still rise freely.
The intraday uptrend of gold will be noticed again by the following notable positions.
Support: 3,021 – 3,000 USD
Resistance: 3,065 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3068 - 3066⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 3072
→Take Profit 1 3060
↨
→Take Profit 2 3054
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2984 - 2986⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2980
→Take Profit 1 2992
↨
→Take Profit 2 2998
Trading Plan for the Day (March 19) | XAU/USDMarket Overview:
Gold (XAU/USD) continues its upward movement. I will wait for the price to break out of the current structure and form a candlestick pattern.
🎯 Key Scenarios:
Breakout Scenario:
A candle must close within the body of the previous candle, confirming the breakout.
After confirmation, I will look for an entry setup on a lower timeframe (e.g., M15 or M5).
Pullback Scenario:
If the breakout does not occur, I will consider long positions during a corrective move toward the OB IDM (Order Block Initial Drive Momentum) zone.
📉 Short Positions:
For short positions, I will consider them only if liquidity builds above PDH (Previous Day High) to break the current structure.
📊 Trading Plan:
Monitor the price action closely:
If no short opportunities arise, I will focus on long positions.
⚠️ Risk Management:
Ensure position size does not exceed 1% of your trading capital to manage risk effectively.
📢 Wishing everyone a profitable trading day!
Will Mixed Geopolitical News Limit the Downside of Oil Prices?Macro:
- Oil prices continued their decline following an agreement between the US and Russia to halt attacks on energy infrastructure, though without implementing a complete ceasefire.
- The market turned bearish amid expectations that Russian sanctions may be eased, potentially increasing the oil supply surplus.
- Uncertainty lingered as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East sent mixed signals. While the possibility of increased supply pushed prices down, fears of conflict disrupting oil production kept some upward pressure.
Technical:
- USOIL retested its descending channel's upper bound before rejecting the boundary and forming a bearish Engulfing Candlestick, which may provide a hint that bears are in control. The price is below both EMAs, indicating persistent bearish momentum.
- Breaking below the support at 65.80 may prompt another plunge to the 100% Fibonacci Extension at 64.00.
- Closing above 68.40 and breaking the descending channel's upper bound may shift the current structure sideways before retesting the following resistance at 70.20.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
GOLD in coming days...The price, as we expected, grew to the (ab=cd) extent after breaking out of this cup-and-handle pattern, and now, technically speaking, it needs some correction, which depends on the level of tensions.
Give me some energy !!
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⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
AUD/CAD Breakout in Motion – Bulls Targeting Higher LevelsTechnical Overview:
The AUD/CAD pair has formed a clear ascending triangle pattern, signaling bullish momentum.
A successful breakout above the resistance zone indicates potential upward movement toward key levels.
Price is currently testing a resistance level near 0.9093, and a clean break above could trigger a strong rally.
Key Levels to Watch:
Entry Zone: Above 0.9093 (breakout confirmation)
First Target (TP1): 0.9163
Second Target (TP2): 0.9299
Stop Loss (SL): Below 0.9008 (previous structure support)
Supporting Factors for Bullish Bias:
✅ Trendline Support: The ascending trendline is holding strong, reinforcing bullish structure.
✅ Higher Lows Formation: Indicates buyers are stepping in aggressively.
✅ Breakout Confirmation: If price sustains above 0.9093, momentum will likely continue.
USOIL BREAKOUT FROM THE WEDGE|SHORT|
✅CRUDE OIL is trading in a
Downtrend and the price broke
Out of the bearish wedge pattern
And the breakout is confirmed
Because the 4H candle closed
Way below the wedge's support
So we are bearish biased and
We will be expecting a
Further bearish move down
SHORT🔥
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Why gold may—or may not—reach $3,060 next Gold is now up 15.57% in 2025 after gaining 27.2% in 2024.
If the current momentum continues, traders may target the upper parallel trendline near $3,060 and rising.
Safe-haven demand is a key driver of this rally, but what could disrupt it?
For one, U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke for 90 minutes today, agreeing on steps toward a peace deal in Ukraine, including a pause on attacks on energy infrastructure. However, Putin declined to accept a broader 30-day ceasefire proposed by U.S. and Ukrainian officials.
NEXT MOVE POSSIBLEHello everybody I hope you are doing well and you had a profitable trades during manipulation last week.
Today I'm here with an idea as you saw the marketing was running crazy last week.
flying since last week, breaks all the resistance and still making ATH and ATH.
Most of the people are still confused those who trades with support and resistance, They are still finding the zones for sell and buy but the market respects their support but not resistance still breaking the resistance and making all time high.
here is the point where gold can change the trend bullish into bearish. If price breaks 3041then gold can follow the same bullish trend, as I said gold can change the direction bullish into bearish yup its possible at the price 3040there is a sell liquidity if price hits their liquidity and breaks 3028 with strong candle gold can fall till 3000.
$XAUUSD | Gold - Nearing ExhaustionGold has seen a strong rally over the past week – technically impressive, but from a Risk-On perspective, it’s more of a warning sign. As I mentioned in my Nvidia market report, I don’t think the Risk-Off phase will last forever. But for now, I believe we’re not quite done with it yet.
From where I stand, Gold could push a bit higher. My next target is the 161.8% Fibonacci extension at $3,038, which I expect to act as a reaction level. After that, I’m targeting a drop back down into the $2,955 to $2,930 area – this is where I expect sub-wave ((iv)) to complete.
What happens next will depend on how price reacts within that zone. Ideally, we’ll see one final move up to complete sub-wave (v) or roman ((iii)), but where exactly that ends is still unclear – I’ll reassess as we approach the zone.
For now, Gold remains strong – but I believe it's nearing exhaustion.
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Another great day on the charts once again with our analysis playing out to perfection!!
After completing our 2993 Bullish target yesterday, we stated that we now have a ema5 lock above 2993 opening 3011. This target was hit today just like we said, followed with a further cross and lock above 3011 opening 3029, which was also hit today completing this range.
We now have a lock above 3029 opening 3049. We now need to keep in mind we have had no corrections from the last two days momentum. Failure to lock above the next level will follow with a rejection to find support at the lower Goldturns for bounce and then further cross and locks will confirm the next range for us.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2993 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2993 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3011 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3011 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3029 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3029 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3049
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3049 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3068
BEARISH TARGETS
2968
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2968 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2942
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2942 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2922
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2922 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2906 - 2886
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Crude oil turns lower on Putin-Trump callBoth oil contracts are now lower on the day, giving up earlier gains. From the day's high, WTI is now 2.8% lower and counting as prices test the day's lows. Oil prices moved lower on hints/hopes of peace from the just-finished Trump & Putin talks. The rationale here is that any peace progress would increase the chances of removing sanctions on Russian oil shipments, increasing global supplies.
WTI has held the trend resistance and old support-now-resistance at $68.45. The inverted daily hammer candle, if completed, would point to more weakness in the days ahead. As such, we could see prices dip down to test waters below recent lows of just north of $65.00 handle - a level last tested back in September 2024. A potential break below that could pave the way for a test of the May 2023 low of $63.60.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Why GBPJPY is Bullish?? Detailed technical and fundamentalsThe GBP/JPY pair has recently confirmed a bullish reversal by breaking out of a falling wedge pattern, aligning with our earlier analysis. Currently trading at 194.000, the pair is on track toward our target of 199.000.
Technically, the breakout from the falling wedge—a pattern typically indicative of bullish reversals—suggests increased buying momentum. This is further supported by the pair's ability to maintain levels above key resistance points, now acting as support. The next significant resistance is anticipated around the 195.000 level, a psychological barrier that, if surpassed, could pave the way toward our 199.000 target.
Fundamentally, the British pound has been bolstered by positive economic indicators, including robust GDP growth and a resilient labor market, enhancing investor confidence. Conversely, the Japanese yen has experienced depreciation due to the Bank of Japan's commitment to ultra-loose monetary policies, aiming to stimulate inflation and economic growth. This monetary policy divergence has contributed to the upward trajectory of GBP/JPY.
In conclusion, the confluence of technical and fundamental factors supports a bullish outlook for GBP/JPY. Traders should monitor upcoming economic releases and central bank communications, as these could impact market sentiment and price action. Maintaining a disciplined approach with appropriate risk management strategies is essential as the pair approaches the 199.000 target.