Analysis of the latest trend of gold market:
Analysis of gold news: On Wednesday (January 8), spot gold was currently trading around $2,663. Due to the uncertainty of Trump's policies and the turbulent geopolitical situation, the price of gold rose to $2,665/ounce during trading on Tuesday, close to the nearly three-week high set last Friday. However, due to the strong performance of US service industry data and the increase in job vacancies, it was indicated that the possibility of a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve was reduced. The US dollar index rebounded and the 10-year US Treasury yield hit a new high in more than half a year, narrowing the increase in gold prices and closing at around $2,648.53/ounce. This trading day will usher in the US January ADP employment data (commonly known as "small non-agricultural") and the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting. Investors need to pay close attention. In addition, pay attention to the speech made by Federal Reserve Governor Waller on the economic outlook at the OECD meeting.
Fundamentally, stronger-than-expected new job data and a strong service industry ISM index both indicate a strong economy, but the threat of inflation lingers. It also indicates that the Federal Reserve may slow down the pace of the interest rate cut cycle. It once suppressed the gold price to retreat, but did not change the outlook for gold prices. Looking ahead, in the short term, as Trump prepares to take office in January, his policies will promote economic growth and increase price pressure, making gold prices still face short-term pressure range shock adjustments. But the continued shock adjustment is still laying the foundation for the subsequent rise. Trump's tariff policy will also increase market concerns. During the Trump administration, the US debt situation may worsen and the fiscal deficit may increase, which will fuel the continued safe-haven demand for gold. And the bullish factors supporting gold prices in 2024 are still continuing, and the Fed's interest rate cuts, central bank buying and geopolitical tensions will continue to push gold to new highs. Next, people will pay attention to the December employment report released on Friday to find clues about the strength of the labor market. Also awaiting Wednesday's ADP employment report and minutes from the Federal Reserve's December meeting.
Technical analysis of gold:
Gold has been running in a contracting triangle pattern with gradually falling highs and gradually rising lows since it fell from 2790 to 2536. After nearly two months of consolidation, the current market has reached the end of the triangle. The upper pressure is currently on the 2790-2726 connecting trend line, and the lower support is on the 2536-2583 connecting trend line. No matter which direction the market breaks in the future, there will be a good unilateral market. Please pay attention to whether the non-agricultural data this Friday and the CPI inflation data next week will form a breakthrough opportunity. At the daily level, it fell 2614 on Monday and bottomed out, then rebounded 2665 on Tuesday and fell back. The short-term long and short continuity is insufficient. Fortunately, the closing lines are all above MA5. The high and low price points in the small range gradually rise, and the overall shock is strong. grid The MACD red column on the indicator continues to increase in volume, the golden cross of the fast and slow line is about to surface, and the long-term trend of the 100-day moving average is good. On the whole, the short-term bullish position of gold is strong, and the probability of an upward breakout in the market outlook is high. In the short-term during the day, the low-long trend is Lord. The short-term oscillating upward trend of gold at the 4-hour level is obvious. After each recent decline, the market can quickly rebound to a new high. Yesterday, the market fell under pressure at 2665, but the K line did not continue to fall, indicating that the current trend is strong. Although 2665 has not been broken many times, in terms of the short-term trend, it is only a matter of time before it breaks.
On the whole, today's short-term operation thinking for gold is to focus on buying long and bullish prices when pushing back to lows, supplemented by short selling when rebounding high. In the short-term, focus on the 2640-2635 first-line support at the bottom, and focus on the 2665-2670 first-line resistance at the top in the short-term.
Gold trading strategy:
1. When gold rebounds, sell short at the 2663-2665 line, stop loss at 2673, target the 2635-40 line, and look at the 2615-2620 line if the position is broken;
2. Gold returns to the 2637-2640 line to buy, stop loss at 2629, and target the 2655-2660 line;
