SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-4 : Breakaway PatternToday is a very interesting day because my MRM investment model turned BEARISH on the Daily chart. That means we have broken through major support because of this tariff war and the markets are not OFFICIALLY (based on my models) into a Daily BEARISH trend (or a Daily Broad Pullback Phase).
What that means is we need to start thinking of the markets as OVERALL BEARISH and trying to identify support - or a base/bottom in the near future.
This is no longer a BULLISH market - everything seems to have flipped into a BEARISH primary trend (OFFICIALLY).
So, watch this video to understand how Fibonacci price levels will likely play out as the SPY targeting the 500-505 level (possibly lower) and where the same Fibonacci price levels will prompt the QQQ to target 395-400.
BUCKLE UP. This is a BIG CHANGE related to overall market trend.
Gold is holding up much better than Silver. But I still believe this is a PANIC selling phase in Gold/Silver and they will both base/recovery and RALLY much higher.
The funny thing about the cycles in Gold/Silver is this:
In 2007-08, just after the major expansion phase completed, the Global Financial Crisis hit - prompting a large downward price rotation in metals.
Maybe, just maybe, this forced tariff war issue is a disruption that will "speed up" the process of metals rallying above $5000++ over the next 60+ days.
I see this move as PHASES and it appears the tariff disruption may prompt a faster Phase-Shift for metals over the next few months. We'll see.
BTCUSD seems to be in SHOCK. It's really going nowhere on very low volume.
If BTCUSD is a true hedge or alternate store of value - I would think it would have an upward reaction to this selling.
We'll see how this plays out.
Get some.
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Commodities
Let's cover the action of some instruments as we get the NFPLet's see what's happening with the market as we get the NFP number live.
Let's dig in!
MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX
TVC:DXY
TVC:GOLD
FRED:SP500
FX_IDC:EURUSD
MARKETSCOM:EURUSD
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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SILVER INTRADAY pullback to support at 3090Silver maintains a bullish sentiment, in line with the prevailing uptrend. Recent intraday price action suggests a corrective pullback, potentially retesting the previous consolidation zone for support.
Key Level: 3090
This zone represents a significant area of prior consolidation and now acts as a key support level.
Bullish Scenario:
A pullback toward 3090 followed by a bullish bounce would confirm continued upside momentum. Immediate resistance targets include 3266, with extended upside potential toward 3350 and 3450 over the longer term.
Bearish Alternative:
A confirmed breakdown and daily close below 3090 would negate the current bullish outlook. This would open the door for a deeper retracement toward 3028, followed by 2945.
Conclusion:
Silver remains technically bullish while trading above 3090. A successful retest and rebound from this level would support further upside. However, a daily close below 3090 would shift sentiment bearish in the short term, increasing the risk of a deeper correction.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
GOLD - Bullish Momentum Continues! Key Levels & Trade SetupCurrent Price Action:
Gold (XAUUSD) is showing strong bullish momentum on the 1-hour chart, with clear support levels forming. The price recently tested 3,108.56 and is holding above key psychological support at 3,100.00.
Key Levels & Trade Setup:
Support Zones:
- FVG (Fair Value Gap) acting as support
- Strong base at 3,108.56 (11:35 candle)
- Major psychological level at 3,100.00
Market Context:
The chart shows liquidity pools with clear buy/sell labels, indicating institutional activity. The price is respecting Fibonacci levels, suggesting a structured uptrend.
Final Thoughts:
Gold remains in a strong uptrend, with clear support levels and Fibonacci confluences providing high-probability trade setups. The 3,100 level is critical—holding above it keeps the bullish bias intact.
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Always do your own analysis. Trade safe! 💡
GOLD short-term intraday analysisThe central bank's continued gold purchases, rising risk aversion and relatively low real interest rates will continue to attract funds into the precious metals market. Gold prices fell on a new profit-taking as traders chose to cash out before the release of the crucial US NFP employment data. Given the increased risk of recession, the NFP data will help provide more clues to the Fed's interest rate outlook.
The volatility of gold is really getting bigger day by day, with a single-day fluctuation of several hundred US dollars. The decline is always faster and more fierce than the rise. After breaking the 3100 dividing line, it accelerated downward. Yesterday's lowest was 3054. The key position below is 3033/3054. Note that you can also participate in long positions at key support positions under the plunge, but you must be patient and wait for the position.
The gold 1-hour moving average still shows signs of turning downward, but the rise of gold in the US market did not allow the gold 1-hour moving average to enter a dead cross pattern. Although gold bulls rebounded strongly, it was also stimulated by risk aversion news. However, gold continued to fall after rising, and gold began to return to volatility. In the short term, gold is supported near 3078!
Now that gold has fallen below the support near 3100 again, the gold bears are still more dominant in this tug-of-war. Today is the NFP data day. Overall, the impact of the NFP data is expected to be eclipsed. More importantly, the stimulus of risk aversion news.
Key points:
First support: 3085, second support: 3078, third support: 3054
First resistance: 3120, second resistance: 3135, third resistance: 3167
Operation ideas:
Buy: 3078-3082, SL: 3068, TP: 3100-3110;
Sell: 3132-3135, SL: 3144, TP: 3110-3100;
“Weak Demand Signals Potential for a Lower Low”Currently, the position of NCF1! or Newcastle Coal is within wave 5 of wave (C) of wave , indicating that Newcastle Coal remains vulnerable to further corrections toward the 86.55–96.15 range, as represented by the black labels.
A similar pattern is observed in the red labels, where Newcastle Coal is also nearing the completion of wave (5) of wave .
We observe continued pressure on coal demand due to weak consumption and oversupply, as many countries are increasingly investing in renewable energy sources amid slower global economic growth.
GOLD Bullish consolidation supported at 3058Gold maintains a bullish sentiment, in line with the prevailing uptrend. Recent intraday price action suggests a corrective pullback, potentially retesting the previous consolidation zone for support.
Key Level: 3058
This zone represents a significant area of prior consolidation and now acts as a key support level.
Bullish Scenario:
A pullback toward 3058 followed by a bullish bounce would confirm continued upside momentum. Immediate resistance targets include 3141, with extended upside potential toward 3167 and 3198 over the longer term.
Bearish Alternative:
A confirmed breakdown and daily close below 3058 would negate the current bullish outlook. This would open the door for a deeper retracement toward 3028, followed by 3000 and 2974.
Conclusion:
Gold remains technically bullish while trading above 3058. A successful retest and rebound from this level would support further upside. However, a daily close below 3058 would shift sentiment bearish in the short term, increasing the risk of a deeper correction.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
GOLD Will Explode! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for GOLD below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 2788.3
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 2802.9
Recommended Stop Loss - 2780.8
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed sharply lower due to the aftermath of tariff impositions. Following a significant gap-down, the index broke below the lower Bollinger Band, intensifying selling pressure. Yesterday’s bearish candlestick confirmed a sell signal, leading to an expanded third wave of selling. The index has now reached the previous support zone near 18,500, with additional volatility expected due to today’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report and Fed Chair Powell’s speech.
On the monthly chart, the Nasdaq is forming a lower shadow around the 20-month moving average. Given the sharp decline, if further selling occurs, oversold conditions may trigger a strong rebound, making it risky to chase shorts at this stage. The 240-minute chart also shows a sell signal, with heavy selling pressure continuing. However, this is a risky zone to enter new short positions, so it's advisable to monitor short-term price movements before making a move.
Regardless of whether you take long or short positions, due to high volatility, make sure to set stop-loss levels and adjust leverage to a manageable risk level.
Additionally, the VIX surged, forming a large bullish candle and reaching its March 11 high. With the VIX in an uptrend and a buy signal appearing, further volatility expansion is likely. However, since it has reached a key resistance zone, a short-term pullback in the VIX could allow for a Nasdaq rebound. For the VIX to break above its previous high, a period of consolidation may be necessary. Given the strong buying momentum on both the weekly and monthly charts, this should be taken into consideration when forming a trading strategy.
Crude Oil
Crude oil plunged following the OPEC meeting, where supply increases became a key issue. While oversupply concerns are a factor, the economic slowdown fears from tariffs have also played a major role in the decline. Previously, $68 was considered a strong support level, but oil collapsed from $72 in a steep decline. The final key support lies around $66.
On the daily chart, the MACD and signal line are converging near the zero line, suggesting that once a new wave begins, it could lead to a strong trend movement. Depending on today's session and Monday’s market, oil could see an aggressive breakout in either direction. Current candlestick patterns indicate that the weekly chart remains bearish, meaning holding long positions over the weekend carries significant risk.
The 240-minute chart also confirms a strong sell signal, with MACD plummeting. Oil may form a temporary sideways range near the $66 support, but if this level breaks, selling pressure could intensify. Ensure you manage stop-loss risks carefully in case of further downside.
Gold
Gold declined, reacting to fluctuations in the U.S. dollar's value. The price failed to hold above $3,200 and dropped below the 5-day moving average. Gold has been in a one-way trend, so a bullish approach remains valid unless it breaks below the 10-day MA. However, it has now entered a range-bound phase, and MACD on the daily chart is nearing the signal line, suggesting potential downside risks. The MACD failed to break its February highs, increasing the likelihood of divergence, which could trigger a strong correction if selling intensifies. With rising market volatility and today's NFP release, further wild swings in gold prices are expected.
The 240-minute chart has shown a sell signal, leading to a sharp decline. However, the price has found support near a key resistance-turned-support zone. Since the MACD and signal line remain above the zero line, gold may continue trading within a range in the short term. On shorter timeframes, candlestick volatility is high, so reducing leverage and widening stop ranges would be a prudent strategy.
During periods of extreme market volatility, technical analysis may become less effective, as market sentiment often overrides chart patterns. As always, trade only within your manageable volatility range. The market is always open, so even if you incur losses, there will always be opportunities to recover. Manage risk wisely, and best of luck with your trades today!
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DeGRAM | GOLD ready for a declineGOLD is in an ascending channel between trend lines.
The price is moving from the dynamic resistance, which has already acted as a pullback point twice.
The chart has already reached the upper boundary of the channel and dropped below the resistance level after testing the 62% retracement level.
On the 1H Timeframe, the indicators show that XAUUSD has started to work out the formed bearish divergence.
We expect a decline.
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Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
WTI / OIL PoV - Break Point 65$ / 62$ / 47$ LONG The price of oil has recently undergone a significant retracement, dropping to its lowest levels in the last three months. This decline has been influenced by several factors, including trade tariff policies and decisions made by OPEC+.
In March 2025, the price of Brent crude fell below $70, touching a low of $69.76, its lowest since September. In New York, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) lost 1.64%, reaching $67.24. New tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on imports from Canada and Mexico have fueled uncertainty about international trade, raising concerns that global economic slowdown might cause oil demand to fall behind supply.
Additionally, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 138,000 barrels per day in April, with the goal of reaching a production level of 2.2 million barrels per day by 2026. This decision contributed to an oversupply that could negatively affect prices, especially if economic growth slows.
Trade tariffs have had a direct impact on the oil market. In February 2025, China imposed a 10% tariff on U.S. crude oil in response to U.S. tariffs, contributing to the drop in oil prices to their lowest levels of the year. Additionally, U.S. crude oil inventories increased beyond expectations, indicating further weakness in demand.
Geopolitical tensions, such as the U.S. proposals to take control of Gaza and the intention to strengthen sanctions on Iran, have added further uncertainty to the market, affecting consumer and investor confidence.
Regarding the price levels you’ve identified for potential purchases, it's important to note that the oil market is influenced by a combination of geopolitical, economic, and supply factors. The support levels at $65, $62, and $57 that you've pointed out may represent significant technical levels, but it’s crucial to monitor geopolitical developments and trade policies that can affect price volatility. It is advisable to consult up-to-date sources and market analysis before making investment decisions.
XAUUSD M15 I Bearish ContinuationBased on the M15 chart analysis, we can see that the price could rise toward our sell entry at 3092.56, which is a pullback resistance.
Our take profit will be at 3072, aligning with the 161.8% Fibo extension.
The stop loss will be placed at 3120.64, a swing high resistance.
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Detailed Analysis of Silver (XAG/USD) – Double Top BreakoutThe chart represents a technical analysis of Silver (XAG/USD) on the daily timeframe (1D). A Double Top pattern, one of the most reliable bearish reversal formations, is developing. This signals a potential downtrend, with key price levels and trendlines confirming weakness in bullish momentum. Below is a full breakdown of the pattern, price action, and trading setup.
1️⃣ Pattern Formation: Double Top – Bearish Reversal
A Double Top pattern occurs when the price reaches a resistance level twice, failing to break higher. It indicates a shift from a bullish trend to a bearish one.
🔹 Characteristics of the Double Top in This Chart:
First Peak (Top 1 - Resistance at ~$34.57):
The price made a strong move upward, reaching a high near $34.57.
Selling pressure at this level pushed the price downward, forming a support level near $30 (Neckline).
Pullback & Temporary Support (~$30 Neckline):
Buyers stepped in at the support zone, causing a bounce back towards resistance.
This level acted as strong demand, preventing further decline temporarily.
Second Peak (Top 2 - Rejection at Resistance Again):
Price attempted to break above the previous peak but failed.
This failure to form a higher high confirms the presence of strong sellers.
The second rejection strengthens the resistance level at $34.57, signaling exhaustion in buying momentum.
Break of the Trendline Support (Bearish Shift):
A previously ascending trendline (black dashed line) was providing support for the uptrend.
Price broke below this trendline, indicating a possible trend reversal from bullish to bearish.
2️⃣ Key Technical Levels & Trading Setup
🔸 Resistance Zone (~$34.57 - Stop Loss Area)
This is the major resistance level, tested twice and confirmed as a supply zone.
A move above $34.57 would invalidate the bearish pattern, making this an ideal stop-loss level.
🔹 Support Level / Neckline (~$30 - Breakdown Confirmation)
The neckline acts as a critical level. If the price breaks below $30, the Double Top formation is confirmed.
If the price retests this level from below and rejects (fails to reclaim it as support), it becomes a strong short entry signal.
🔻 Target Price (Projected Move - $23.01)
The target is based on the measured move rule of a Double Top:
Distance from resistance ($34.57) to neckline ($30) ≈ $4.57.
Projecting this same distance downward gives a target of ~$23.01.
This aligns with historical demand zones, increasing the probability of price reaching this level.
3️⃣ Trading Plan: Short Setup Execution
🔽 Short Entry (Breakdown Confirmation Below $30)
Ideal entry point is after the neckline breaks and confirms resistance upon a retest.
A breakdown with strong volume enhances the validity of the setup.
🚨 Stop Loss Placement (Above $34.57 Resistance Level)
Placing a stop above the second peak ($34.57) ensures protection against invalidation.
If price moves back above this level, the pattern fails, indicating a potential return to bullish momentum.
🎯 Target Price ($23.01) – Measured Move Projection
The price target aligns with the pattern structure and historical support levels.
Traders can take partial profits at intermediary levels ($27–$26) before full target realization.
4️⃣ Additional Confirmation Factors – Confluence for Bearish Bias
1️⃣ Momentum Indicators: RSI & MACD Bearish Signals
If RSI (Relative Strength Index) drops below 50, it confirms weakening bullish momentum.
A MACD bearish crossover (signal line crossing below the MACD line) would further validate the downtrend.
2️⃣ Volume Analysis – Breakout Confirmation
A high volume breakout below $30 confirms selling pressure.
Low-volume breakdowns can lead to false breakouts, making volume a crucial factor to watch.
3️⃣ Fundamental Factors – Macro Outlook on Silver (XAG/USD)
Silver prices are influenced by interest rates, inflation, and USD strength.
If USD strengthens, silver could face more selling pressure, aligning with this bearish technical setup.
Any hawkish monetary policy statements could accelerate the downside movement.
5️⃣ Risk Management & Alternative Scenarios
✔️ Ideal Risk-Reward Ratio
Risk: Stop loss at $34.57 (~4.5% above entry)
Reward: Target at $23.01 (~23% move)
Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:5 (highly favorable for short trades)
⚠️ Bullish Invalidations – When to Avoid the Trade?
If Silver reclaims $34.57 and holds above, the pattern fails.
A false breakout scenario could occur if price breaks below $30 but quickly moves back above.
Watching for bullish divergence on indicators like RSI before entering a short position is recommended.
Final Conclusion: Bearish Bias with Strong Downside Potential
📉 Summary of the Bearish Case:
✔️ Double Top pattern confirms a bearish reversal if the neckline breaks.
✔️ Break of ascending trendline signals increasing seller control.
✔️ Key levels: Stop-loss above $34.57 | Entry below $30 | Target $23.01.
✔️ Additional confluence: RSI, MACD, and volume confirmation strengthen the trade setup.
🚀 If price action aligns with this analysis, this setup presents a high-probability short opportunity.
Would you like any refinements or additional insights? 🔥
GOLD/XAUUSD SWING UPDATESHello folks, Gold are on a trend right now. Waiting for this zone for shorts? 3180 might be the high or 3200.
The Initial targets at 3066 zone.
This idea base on my previous idea on fibonacci, Full updates once price goes 3066 zone.
Idea on the new highs maybe later on High impact news.
The idea here is short.
Trade at your own risk.
Follow for more.
I will update once this zones mitigated. Good luck! pewwpeww
Hellena | GOLD (4H): SHORT to 38.2% Fibo lvl 3050.Dear colleagues, the price has been in an upward movement for quite a long time and I believe .that it is time for a correction in the “2” wave.
I think it is possible that there may be a small update of the maximum of the top of wave “1” to 3176.771, then I expect a correction to the area of 38.2% Fibonacci level 3050.
As usual there are 2 possible entry options:
1) Market entry
2) Entry by pending limit orders, if the price updates the maximum.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
GOLD BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
GOLD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 3,101.76
Target Level: 2,970.42
Stop Loss: 3,188.94
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 12h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to support area 65.268.We need to talk about one important nuance. Many people ask “Hellena, you say you can't buy oil, but it's going up. Well, it is, yes. But all my data and wave markings suggest that the price will soon start a downward movement. There are major changes in geopolitics and I am not in a position to stop them. I just set a stoploss and wait for the trade that will bring me profit.
Now coming to the forecast, I think that the downward movement will start soon, but before it, the price may rise quite high, maybe even to the area of 74.000.
But the main direction is the support area of 65.268.
There are 2 possible ways to enter the trade:
1) Entry at market price.
2) Limit pending sell orders if the price starts an upward movement to the area of 74.484.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
USOIL:Continue to move downwardAfter U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs and the OPEC+ decided to increase oil production, concerns about the demand outlook intensified, leading to a significant decline in crude oil prices on Thursday.
The short-term trend of crude oil has dropped sharply, with all the gains since mid-March being given back. The oil price has touched a low near 66. The moving average system diverges downward, and objectively, the short-term trend direction is downward. The bearish momentum is abundant. It is expected that after a minor adjustment at a low level in the intraday trading, the short-term trend of crude oil will mainly continue to move downward.
Trading Strategy:
buy@67.5-68
TP:66-65.5
Get daily trading signals that ensure continuous profits! With an astonishing 90% accuracy rate, I'm the record - holder of an 800% monthly return. Click the link below the article to obtain accurate signals now!
Bearish drop?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 127.2% Fibonacci support.
Pivot: 66.59
1st Support: 64.82
1st Resistance: 67.96
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Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
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