Could the Gold reverse from here?The price is reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 2,627.88
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 2,655.19
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 2,585.75
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Commodities
THE KOG REPORT - ELECTION SPECIAL COMPLETEDKOG first published this chart at the beginning of November prior to the US Election with our view of the movement expected and the trade plan for the month.
We highlighted the path with the Red arrows and added the green arrows with the actual movement. As you can see, we weren't too far off with the projection using it to then trade the levels intra-day and for the swings successfully. It's worked well and combined with our tools, indicators, algo and target activations we can honestly say it's been another great year in Camelot.
We will end this idea here and mark it as completed at the green arrow point above.
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
XAGUSD Silver BEARISH - Head & Shoulders and Wedge BreakSilver has two patterns on the Daily TF that indicate a bearish direction ahead.
There is a complete Head & Shoulders pattern and also a Rising Wedge pattern that has been broke. Silver (XAGUSD) has recently had a bullish retracement to re-test both patterns and should start falling soon.
Short-Term TP = $28
Long-Term TP (from Head & Shoulders) = $24.60
Long-Term TP (from Wedge) = $20.70
I expect the short-term TP to be hit at least. The longer-term TP's may or may not be reached. What will probably happen is that the Head & Shoulders target will be reached and Silver will hold up around the $25 level.
NOTE : I personally love Silver and think it's a great long-term investment. I also consider it a highly manipulated market. I am bearish now based solely on the chart, but keep in mind that anything can happen with Silver!
Silver’s Deep Retrace: Long Setup with Bullish Potential I’ve entered a long trade on Silver (XAG/USD) after observing a deep retrace to the 0.7 Fibonacci level on the daily timeframe. The entry at $28.96 is positioned strategically based on historical support and the current technical setup.
The stop loss is set at $26.54 to mitigate risk, while the take profit target is $36.00, aligning with a potential bullish continuation. In the bearish scenario, a break below $27.50 will prompt a reassessment and tighter risk management. Conversely, on the bullish side, breaking above $32.50 will strengthen the case for holding towards the TP.
Silver’s price action showcases its potential for a significant bounce back, supported by current geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions.
Fundamentals:
1. Federal Reserve’s Hawkish Stance:
The Fed’s updated projections for rate cuts in 2025 have pressured silver prices, as a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields (above 4.5%) diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets. However, easing inflation in the long term could rejuvenate demand for precious metals.
2. Geopolitical Tensions:
Although silver traditionally benefits from uncertainty, recent macroeconomic headwinds, such as concerns about tariffs under the new Trump administration and sluggish global economic recovery, have overshadowed its safe-haven status.
3. Industrial Outlook:
Challenges in the industrial demand for silver, particularly from China’s solar panel production slowdown, add pressure. However, as inflation stabilizes and geopolitical risks unfold, silver could regain its industrial and safe-haven allure.
Technicals:
• Entry: $28.96
• Stop Loss: $26.54
• Take Profit: $36.00
• Key Levels:
• Bearish Scenario: Manage position below $27.50.
• Bullish Case: Strength above $32.50 confirms upward momentum.
This setup leverages a confluence of technical retracement, macroeconomic factors, and the potential for a trend reversal. Stay sharp and pay yourself as the market unfolds.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Bearish Outlook For Next Week Explained
Gold closed this week, retesting a recently broken
significant daily horizontal support - a lower boundary
of a wide trading range.
With a high probability, the price will drop from the underlined zone
all the way down to 2563 - the next important structure.
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GOLD → Short to medium term perspectiveFX:XAUUSD after breaking through the support and updating the local minimum is returning to the area of 2620-2625, fueling the hopes of the bulls for possible growth. But, the medium-term picture for gold is not stable. Let's understand
The strong dollar, which soared to local highs is a threat to gold going forward, as the Fed's hints of halting the rate cut course and adopting a hawkish stance on monetary policy has affected the market quite aggressively. There are 2 rate cuts pledged for 2025. Not to forget Trump's policies in general - the impact on rising inflation....
There are two interesting charts online that should not be overlooked:
Statistics play an important role in shaping prices, but it is worthwhile to base this on actual fundamental and technical data. You should not use these statistical charts as primary data, but you can take them into account. We will analyze the dollar in terms of cycles and possible reversal in the second half of January and further as Trump acts....
As for gold, technically, in the short and medium term, I expect the decline to continue for the following reasons:
- the bearish structure is confirmed
- a localized retest of the zone of interest and imbalance is forming before a further fall.
- The bearish trend has not broken within the framework of the December 10-13 movement.
- price updates local lows
We continue to follow the zones: 2631-2636 and 2650
Regards R. Linda!
Gold BULLISH SCENARIO .read description .gold View for BULLISH SCENARIO . might be the next ATH ?
going to sweep the marked tops by closing above 2627.3
then we expecting a retrace around 2664 .
based on what we get on the way we will update the view .
but overall closing above 2715 for few days should take us to ATH as shown in prev idea .
(( this is only for BULLISH SCENARIO )) - for bearish one if we closed below the last low 2540 we going down deep 2471 .
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Dec 22 - Dec 27]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD fell quite sharply from 2,664 USD/oz to 2,582 USD/oz, then recovered to 2,631 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,622 USD/oz.
The reason gold prices dropped sharply this week is because the FED cut interest rates by another 0.25% as predicted. However, what caused disappointed investors to sell off gold was because the Fed chairman said he would only cut interest rates two more times in 2025. Previously, in September 2024, the FED predicted four more cuts. interest rate next year.
In the same context, the US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index in November increased by 2.8% over the same period last year, unchanged compared to October, but still much higher than the target. of the Fed is 2%. This also strengthens the possibility that the FED will reduce the current monetary easing cycle.
Furthermore, Donald Trump is about to take office as US President for his second term. If Mr. Trump implements a fiscal expansion policy and sharply increases tariffs with America's trading partners, it will significantly reduce the country's trade deficit, meaning the supply of USD will decrease sharply, pushing the currency This increases, thereby negatively affecting gold prices. Furthermore, Mr. Trump's tax policy also increases inflation, forcing the Fed to delay cutting interest rates, or even raise interest rates again if inflation skyrockets.
Next week's gold price is likely to be torn between FED's monetary policy and geopolitical instability. However, next week, most international investors will be on holiday for Christmas and New Year 2025, so gold trading volume will decrease sharply, causing gold prices next week to only fluctuate within a narrow range.
📌From a technical perspective, next week's gold price will likely continue to adjust and accumulate. Accordingly, if next week's gold price still trades above the threshold of 2,582 USD/oz, it will continue to move sideways within the range of 2,585 - 2,665 USD/oz before the holiday. On the contrary, if next week's gold price is pushed below 2,582 USD/oz, there is a risk of falling to 2,530 USD/oz.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,591 – 2,552 – 2,538USD
Resistance: 2,623 – 2,634 – 2,656USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2666 - 2664⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2670
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2529 - 2531⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2525
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 4h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing ema5 play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 2629 and a gap below at 2600. We need ema5 to cross and lock above or below the weighted Goldturns to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2629
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2629 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2655
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2655 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2694
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2694 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2726
BEARISH TARGETS
2600
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2600 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2561
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2561 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2518 - 2486
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD DAILY CHART MID/LONG TERM UPDATEHey Everyone,
Please see the daily chart update we have been trading and tracking for a while now, to give you all an overall view of the range.
After completing 2686 previously we were left with a candle body close break opening the gap above but had no cross and lock therefore confirming rejection for the move down.
We are now seeing price play in the retracement range and expect this range to provide support with the lowest in the range we can see 2560 and support above this level should provide bounces to chase targets above.
We will use our smaller timeframe analysis on the 1H and 4H chart to buy dips from the weighted Goldturns for 30 to 40 pips clean. Ranging markets are perfectly suited for this type of trading, instead of trying to hold longer positions and getting chopped up in the swings up and down in the range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up using our smaller timeframe ideas.
Our long term bias is Bullish and therefore we look forward to drops like this, which allows us to continue to use our smaller timeframes to buy dips using our levels and setups.
Buying dips allows us to safely manage any swings rather then chasing the bull from the top.
Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM ROUTE MAPHey Everyone,
Another update on the weekly chart idea we have been tracking for over a month now and still playing out as analysed.
As stated already this chart allowed us to project the long term corrections and direction. We are using this chart to track our bullish targets until no ema5 lock to confirm rejections on the levels.
The channel top is continuing to provide support like we stated for the past few weeks, We had a test within the channel into 2590 axis inline with the retracement range, which gave the perfect reactional support bounce.
This is the beauty of our Gold channels, which we draw in our unique way, using averages rather than the price. This enables us to identify fake-outs and breakouts clearly, as minimal noise in the way our channels are drawn.
As long as we see no ema5 break and lock below into the channel, we cane safely continue with our plans to buy dips in this range within the boxes using the levels just like last weeks reactional bounce on the retracement axis level.
We will continue to track the movement down and trade the bounces up, inline with our plans to buy dips, using our smaller time-frames, keeping in mind the long range gaps above for the future.
Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
SILVER BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
It makes sense for us to go short on SILVER right now from the resistance line above with the target of 29.057 because of the confluence of the two strong factors which are the general downtrend on the previous 1W candle and the overbought situation on the lower TF determined by it’s proximity to the upper BB band.
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HelenP. I Gold can rise a little and then drop to $2590Hi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. Some days ago price made a gap and then reached the support level, which coincided with the support zone. Then XAU broke this level and continued to move up to the resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone and soon broke it too. Next, the price rose to 2720 points and then made an impulse down, breaking the resistance level, after which tried to back up, but failed and some time traded below the 2665 level. Some time later, Gold reached the resistance level again and finally broke it one more time, after which rose to the trend line. Then the price turned around and started to decline inside a downward pennant, where it soon dropped to the resistance level and broke it again. Then Gold fell to the support zone, after which turned around and tried to grow but failed and dropped back to the support zone. Recently price finally started to grow and reached an even trend line, which continues to trades close. For this case, I expect that XAUUSD will make a small move up, higher than the trend line, and then start to decline. For this reason, I set my goal at a 2590 support level. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Analysis of gold trend next weekAnalysis of gold trend next week:
Based on the current news, data and technical aspects. The trading strategy for next week will be mainly short selling at high levels. First of all, the first pressure level 2638-42 will be the main reference pressure level. Gold can continue to be short when it reaches around 2638-42. The short-term pressure level 2632 will be our final As a defensive position, as long as gold does not break through the 2642 line and stands firm, gold will still maintain a short trend. The closer the price is to 2638-42, the more beneficial it is for us to be short! From the daily and hourly lines, the shorts are pressing step by step, and there is still room for shorts.
From the 4-hour analysis, the upper resistance focuses on the 2638-42 line, and the lower support focuses on the 2586-92 area. The intraday pullback relies on this position to continue shorting at high levels, and falls back along the short trend. The daily level is under pressure below this position and continues to maintain the high shorting rhythm unchanged. If you buy more against the trend, please be cautious about the buying point, enter the market with a light position, and strictly set a stop loss.
Gold operation strategy:
1. Short sell gold when it rebounds to 2638-2642, stop loss at 2651, target at 2588-2593;
2. Buy gold when it falls back to 2586-2593, stop loss at 2575, target at 2630-35;
WTI/USD on high time frame
"Hello traders, I am focusing on oil in the high timeframe. Oil, being a critical commodity, is heavily influenced by global political situations. Observing institutional orders, I anticipate that the price could potentially rise above $75 on the weekly and monthly charts. This week, due to low market liquidity caused by the holiday period, it is advisable to closely monitor the price for further analysis post-holidays."
GOLD → Interest rates are dropping, so why is gold falling?Hello, dear friends! Ben here!
Gold prices remain consolidated below the $2,600 level following a strong two-way price movement in the previous session and stay near their lowest point in over a month.
The primary reason for the decline in gold prices is the recent decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates by an additional 0.25%. While this move was widely anticipated, the Fed also indicated that it plans to reduce rates at a slower pace in 2025. The impact of recent Fed rate cuts had already been priced into gold. At this point, investors are eager to know how many rate cuts the Fed will execute in 2025.
According to the Fed's latest interest rate projections, only two rate cuts are expected in 2025, compared to four cuts projected in the September forecast. In theory, the Fed’s hawkish stance has worked effectively: the dollar has strengthened, and the markets have weakened.
Today, all eyes are on GDP and the PCE data—an index the Fed considers a key measure of inflation.
From a technical perspective, after retesting the previously broken channel boundary and an imbalance zone, gold prices have dropped further. As a result, a clear trend is emerging that warrants close observation. If the price fails to hold above the critical support level around $2,586/ounce, it is highly likely to decline toward the $2,521/ounce area.
Sincerely,
Bentradegold!
SILVER IDEA : SHORT | SELL (WB: 23/12/24)Guys! End of the year - last bit of chart worklkkk until mid Jannnnnyyyyy!
Anyway! This. Is. A simple continuation trade. Silver MIGHT drop from this point but it is still in discount I’d seek for buys until price reaches premium and continues the trend… good luck trading next week!
This one will be interesting as I don’t like continuous trades.. nevertheless, we shall see
RR: 2.84
OIL IDEA: SHORT/SELL (W/B: 23/12/24)Guys! It’s almost the end of the year!
This one is quite self explanatory… order flow is bearish - we’ve had a break of structure to the down, so price is looking to tap back in to finish the sell. The trade I’m showing is RR: 2.80, with the final TP of RR: 4.14. Enjoy and good luck!
Last couple posts will be my last until probably mid January
Gasoline, is more likely to bottom soon. GASOLINE / 1D
Hello Traders, welcome back to another market breakdown.
GASOLINE appears to be attempting to establish another low. A breakout above critical resistance levels could indicate a potential continuation of the upward trend. However, the price is currently consolidating within a range. Therefore, rather than entering at the current levels, it is advisable to wait for a breakout followed by a pullback into the breakout zone for a more calculated and strategic entry.
Maintain discipline, allow the market to align with your strategy, and approach trades with confidence.
Trade safely,
Trader Leo.
$USO crash before the bull market starts?I originally thought that we'd see a move higher off the bounce from $69, however the chart has now morphed and looks more bearish than it did over the summer.
If we break the trend line to the downside, then I think it's likely that we can see a crash to the $40 region before the bull market in oil really starts.
Let's see how it plays out over the coming months.