GOLD Can Turn Bearish Now, After Completing a 50% Retracement!GOLD futures analysis for Wed Jun 26th.
Price reached the -FVGand is reacting to it now.
This, after pulling back tothe 50% fib.
Should the FVG fail, Gold is bullish. This is not
supported by fundamentals, though.
As the market environment is more risk on than
off, I expect the -FVG to hold, and the retracement
of the last impulsive move down to end, and a new
bearish leg to begin.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Commodities
GOLD SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
GOLD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 3,339.37
Target Level: 3,313.04
Stop Loss: 3,356.82
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Gold Price ActionHello Traders,
There’s a potential Buy/Sell opportunity here based on the current price action. I’ve marked trendlines on two different timeframes, which highlight key Support and Resistance levels.
I've shared more detailed analysis on my channel, so feel free to check that out for deeper insights.
When the price reacts (rejects) from these support or resistance zones, we can look to confirm our entry by analyzing volume—this helps us avoid false signals.
For trade management, consider using a Risk-Reward ratio between 1:2 and 1:5, depending on your personal trading style. Most importantly, avoid trading blindly—always wait for confirmation.
Wishing you all the best and happy trading!
Thank you!
XAUUSD Possible Move 26.05.2025Gold is currently respecting an ascending channel, showing consistent higher highs and higher lows. Price is now testing the upper boundary of this channel and approaching a key supply zone (3353–3357), which previously triggered a strong sell-off.
Key Zones:
🔼 Sell Zone: 3353–3357 (confluence of supply + channel resistance)
🔽 Buy Zone: 3325–3329 (demand zone + channel support)
✅ Trade Ideas:
📍Buy Setup
Entry: 3325–3329
SL: Below 3310
TP: 3350–3355
📍Sell Setup
Entry: 3353–3357
SL: Above 3367
TP: 3330–3325
🔔 Important Note:
⚠️ Today's U.S. Jobless Claims data is critical. Expect volatility and possible breakout/fakeout scenarios around the time of release. Trade only on confirmation.
XAU/USD – Smart Money Building Toward $3360? |26 June 2025Gold (XAU/USD) is pushing into fresh highs around $3337, and we may be approaching a key inflection point. But beneath the surface of candles and wicks lies the real story — one written by liquidity, displacement, and smart money positioning.
This outlook breaks down gold’s price action using Smart Money Concepts (SMC), price structure, and Fibonacci confluence, to help identify the most probable high-value trade zones for both swing and intraday traders.
4H Outlook – Institutional Flow & Structure
Market Structure
Gold recently broke above the $3310–$3320 resistance, confirming a bullish Break of Structure (BOS). This keeps the market in a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, validating continued bullish pressure.
Smart Money Insights
BOS: Clean break above $3320 signals strength.
CHoCH: None yet — trend remains bullish.
Liquidity Sweep: Sell stops below $3295 have already been taken.
Buy-Side Liquidity: Sits above $3350 — price may gravitate there next.
FVG: Unfilled Fair Value Gap between $3314–$3322 — possible retracement zone.
Bullish OB: Identified between $3300–$3310, aligned with FVG and BOS level.
Equilibrium: Using $3275 (swing low) and $3342 (swing high), the midpoint sits near $3308, acting as fair re-entry value.
Key Zones
Buy Zone (Demand): $3295–$3310 — OB + FVG + Fib confluence.
Sell Zone (Supply): $3350–$3360 — next likely liquidity target.
Bias Summary
As long as price remains above $3295, the bullish structure stays valid. Watch for a retracement into $3308–$3316 for potential continuation toward $3350–$3360. Price may briefly dip below $3310 to trigger liquidity before moving higher.
1H View – Precision Entries
Structure
Following the high at $3342, price has pulled back slightly and is forming what appears to be a bullish flag — often a continuation pattern.
Smart Money Zones (1H)
FVG: $3315–$3322 — potential short-term reaction zone.
Order Block: $3305–$3312 — 1H bullish OB aligned with 4H bias.
Sell-side Liquidity: Swept at $3295 earlier this week — supports continuation.
Trade Setups
Long Setup #1 – Optimal Entry
Entry: $3308–$3315
Stop: Below $3295
TP: $3342 (partial), $3350–$3360 (full)
Why: Strong zone combining FVG, OB, and Fib support.
Long Setup #2 – Aggressive Entry
Entry: $3316–$3320
Stop: $3300
TP: $3340–$3350
Why: Quicker entry inside the imbalance — riskier but valid.
Short Setup – Countertrend (Low Conviction)
Only valid on a clear break below $3310 + CHoCH
Entry: Below $3310 (confirmed)
Target: $3295
Note: Lower confidence unless 1H structure turns bearish.
Final Notes
The bias remains bullish above $3301–$3308. This is a high-probability area to look for long setups on retracement. Avoid shorts unless we see a confirmed structural shift with a CHoCH and OB breakdown.
Expect the market to potentially hunt stops below $3310, then aim for liquidity sitting above $3350–$3360.
Silver - overview with Initiative AnalysisHey traders and investors!
Hourly Timeframe
📍 Context
The hourly chart is in a sideways range.
Currently, the buyer has the initiative, potential target 36.55.
📊 Key Actions
The 35.30 level on the hourly timeframe has worked well. This level marks the correction extreme within the dominant buyer initiative (i.e., an initiative where the correction is less than 50%).
A seller attack bar (IKC) targeting the lower boundary of the sideways range was absorbed by the buyer, and this absorption led to a renewed buyer. Targets visible on the chart - Hourly and daily timeframe: 36.55 and 36.89
Daily Timeframe
📍 Context
Currently, the buyer has the initiative, potential target 36.89.
📊 Key Actions
On the daily timeframe, there was also a seller IKC bar attacking the lower boundary of the buyer's initiative, which was bought back by the buyer.
🎯 Trade Idea
Potential buying patterns can now be monitored at: 36.20, 36.05, 35.67, 35.458
With targets set at: 36.55, 36.89, 37.32.
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA).
Wishing you profitable trades!
[XAUUSD] GOLD – Bullish Setup in Play🟡 *Key Context*
- Geopolitical calm (Trump ceasefire remarks) lowered risk aversion, pushing Gold down — but key support is holding.
- Fed uncertainty continues, yet technicals point to a possible reversal.
📉 *Price Structure*
- Price dropped into a falling wedge, testing 3285–3295 (H4 demand zone).
- RSI bullish divergence + harmonic ABCD pattern seen on 30m.
📌 *Trade Setup – Long Bias*
🔹Entry: 3285–3295 zone (watch for bullish candle confirmation)
🔹Stop Loss: Below 3280 (structure invalidation)
🔹Target 1: 3320–3330
🔹Target 2: 3390 (longer-term move)
⚠️ Volume confirmation is key — wait for breakout strength. Avoid entries during news events. Risk must be managed tightly.
#XAUUSD #Gold #TradingSignal #TeconLab #BuyTheDip
Trading Strategy (XAUUSD) – June 25, 2025 After a sharp decline in the previous session, XAUUSD has shown a mild recovery and is currently trading around 3,332 USD. However, price action suggests this could merely be a pullback within a broader downtrend, as gold has yet to break above the key resistance zone.
Technical Analysis
Price Action
Gold has bounced from the support zone between 3,291 – 3,317 USD, which has historically acted as a strong demand area. This zone also aligns with the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement from the previous bullish leg.
However, XAUUSD remains below the key resistance zone at 3,373 – 3,392 USD, which is a confluence of:
- The Fibonacci 0.618 retracement from the most recent downtrend
- A historical supply zone that has been rejected multiple times
- The upper boundary of the sideways range formed since May
- If price fails to break through this zone in the coming sessions, the risk of continued downside remains high.
RSI Indicator
- The RSI (14) is currently hovering around the neutral zone (49–54), indicating that the rebound lacks the strength needed to confirm a trend reversal.
- The RSI has not crossed above the 55 threshold, suggesting the dominant trend is still bearish.
Key Technical Levels to Watch
Resistance:
- 3,373 – 3,392 USD: Confluent resistance zone (Fibonacci 0.618 + prior supply zone)
- 3,435 – 3,452 USD: Major swing high, a key medium-term reference level
Support:
- 3,291 – 3,317 USD: Immediate support zone, still holding strong
- 3,250 – 3,224 USD: Potential downside target if the bearish momentum resumes
Suggested Trade Setups
Scenario 1 – Buy if price holds above 3,291 and shows confirmation signals
Entry: 3,295 – 3,300 USD
Stop-loss: Below 3,289 USD
Take-profit: 3,340 – 3,355 – 3,370 USD
Conditions: Must show clear bullish reversal patterns (Pin Bar, Bullish Engulfing) on H1 or H4 timeframe
Scenario 2 – Sell if price rejects from resistance zone with confirmation candle
Entry: 3,370 – 3,375 USD
Stop-loss: Above 3,392 USD
Take-profit: 3,330 – 3,310 – 3,290 USD
Conditions: Clear bearish rejection candle + declining volume
Note: XAUUSD is currently in a technical rebound phase after a strong drop but lacks solid reversal confirmation. Traders should closely monitor the price reaction near the 3,373 – 3,392 USD resistance zone over the next sessions. This area will determine whether the downtrend will resume or a reversal begins.
Stay tuned for more daily trading strategies, and make sure to save this analysis if you find it helpful for your trading plan.
Strategy analysis by @Henrybillion
XAU/USD - Channel Breakout (26.06.2025)The XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 3385
2nd Resistance – 3410
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Crude oil fluctuates in a narrow range, waiting for direction
💡Message Strategy
Middle East ceasefire eases supply concerns, but risk premium remains
Oil prices rose more than 1% on the day as investors weighed the status of the ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Although both sides have announced an end to hostilities, US intelligence reports show that Iran's nuclear capabilities have only been temporarily damaged. ING analysts pointed out that although immediate concerns about supply disruptions have subsided, potential risks remain, a factor that may support spot prices in the short term.
Previously, crude oil prices soared after the US military action on Iranian infrastructure, but prices have retreated as the ceasefire continues. Although the geopolitical premium has been reduced, it has not been fully digested.
API shows a sharp drop in inventories, traders await EIA report
Industry data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that US crude oil inventories fell sharply by 4.23 million barrels in the week ending June 20, far higher than the expected drop of 800,000 barrels. Gasoline and distillate inventories increased by 400,000 barrels each.
Market focus now turns to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report scheduled for release on Wednesday. Traders were expecting a 1.2 million-barrel draw in inventories, and confirmation of that figure by the EIA, widely viewed as an industry benchmark, would reinforce expectations of tighter supply.
📊Technical aspects
From the daily chart level, crude oil fluctuates upward in the medium term and tests around 67. The K-line closes with a large real negative line, which has not yet destroyed the moving average system and is still supported. The medium-term objective upward trend remains unchanged.
However, from the perspective of momentum, the MACD indicator crosses downward above the zero axis, indicating that the bullish momentum is weakening. It is expected that the medium-term trend of crude oil will fall into a high-level oscillation pattern.
The short-term trend of crude oil (1H) is in a narrow range of consolidation, with a small fluctuation. The oil price repeatedly crosses the moving average system, and the short-term objective trend direction fluctuates. In terms of momentum, the MACD indicator fast and slow lines slowly rise below the zero axis, and the long and short positions are in a stalemate, with no obvious advantage on one side. It is expected that the trend of crude oil will maintain a consolidation pattern during the day.
💰Strategy Package
Short Position:67.00-67.20,SL:67.80,Target: 65.50-64.50
Long Position:64.00-64.20,SL:63.50,Target: 65.50-66.50
Gold Peaked, Deep Analysis: MACD & RSI, Targets: $3,131 & $2,904Gold (XAUUSD) already peaked. The 22 Apr session was a clear top signal. A very strong one at that. The chart is showing a lower (red arrows) and overall distribution channel. Trading volume continues to drop. Bearish volume is predominant.
Gold produced a strong rally, it lasted 159 days. Total growth amounts to +39% from bottom to top, starting November 2024, end April 2025.
It's been 64 days since the all-time high. No new highs, no bullish momentum. Geopolitical factors that would push Gold to new all-time highs, a war, did show up recently, a surprise event and yet Gold's price failed to move higher. This is a warning signal.
The RSI is weak now. Gold is trading very high, a very strong price but with a risk RSI. This is another warning signal, a strong one. Bullish would be the contrary, low price with a strong RSI. A weak RSI at this point can be interpreted as the bullish force being exhausted.
The daily MACD is pretty bad. Trending fully down with no possibility of anything bullish. Here is the chart.
This is a friendly reminder. Switch to Crypto.
You've been warned.
Namaste.
XAUUSD – Sniper Entry Plan June 26, 2025👋 Hello traders,
Gold is currently consolidating after recent downside liquidity sweeps, and Thursday brings high-impact USD catalysts. Let’s break it down and build a precise plan for sniper entries around these volatile zones. We’re trading structure, not noise — eyes on the prize. 🎯
🔸 HTF Outlook (D1 → H4 → H1)
🌐 Macro & Geopolitical Context
Markets are bracing for:
USD Unemployment Claims (Forecast: 244K, previous: 245K)
Final GDP q/q and Durable Goods Orders
Fed speakers (Barkin, Barr, Harker)
Stronger-than-expected data could reinforce USD bullish sentiment, sending gold down. Weaker reports + dovish Fed = bullish pressure on gold.
🗺️ Daily Bias: Neutral to Bullish
Price is ranging above a key CHoCH low + Daily OB (3272–3288)
Strong bullish continuation only confirmed with a break above 3370–3384
FIBO: 50% retracement of the last swing is near 3310, giving structure to Buy Zone 1
Bias: Bullish as long as 3272 holds — PA supports HL structure above imbalance
🕓 H4 Bias: Bearish Pullback
CHoCH at 3384 → clean Lower High + price failed to close above premium FVG
Pullback testing EMA 50/100 + FVG at 3345
FIBO extension zone at 161.8% aligns near 3288 = reactive downside target
Bias: Reactive bearish under 3352. If 3370 breaks cleanly → short invalid.
🕐 H1 Bias: Bullish Short-Term
CHoCH → HL printed at 3310 → higher lows forming toward supply
EMA 21/50 crossed to the upside, RSI mid-range (50–60)
PA structure showing ascending triangle under resistance
Bias: Bullish continuation valid toward 3352–3370, unless breakdown under 3308
🔸 LTF Precision (M30 → M15)
🔹 Sell Zone 1 – 3352–3345
H1 OB + M15 FVG + upper range sweep
RSI expected to peak near 70 → potential divergence
FIBO: 78.6% retracement of previous bearish leg
PA: Watch for M15 liquidity sweep + bearish engulfing
🔸 Entry: Wait for break/retest → confirmation on M5–M15 BOS
🔹 Sell Zone 2 – 3370–3384
HTF premium imbalance zone + weak high above
RSI likely in exhaustion zone
FIBO extension 1.272–1.618 completes inside this supply
PA: Only enter after stop hunt wick + clear CHoCH (M5)
🔸 Entry: Reactive fade after liquidity trap
🔸 Buy Zone 1 – 3308–3313
H1 CHoCH + OB + EQ zone
RSI bounce zone (30–40)
FIBO 50–61.8% retracement of bullish swing
PA: Watch for M15 bullish engulfing or double bottom formation
🔸 Entry: Only on structure break + retest confirmation
🔸 Buy Zone 2 – 3288–3272
Daily OB + HTF FVG + massive imbalance
RSI expected to overshoot under 30
FIBO: 1.618 extension from previous M15 bullish leg
PA: High-RR reversal zone if flushed by NY open
🔸 Entry: Enter only after M5 CHoCH or strong engulfing near the OB
⚖️ Decision Zone – 3333–3336
Previous supply turned EQ zone
PA shows indecision — do not enter here
Useful for monitoring if price holds support or rejects
🔸 Trade Scenarios
🟢 Bullish Scenario
If USD data is weak:
Flush to 3308 or 3288
Confirm HL formation → sniper buy from OB → aim 3345+, possibly 3370 sweep
🔴 Bearish Scenario
If USD prints strong:
Price spikes into 3352 or 3370 zones → rejection + BOS
Sniper short entry → targets 3310 → 3288
🔸 Final Plan & Action Points
✅ Patience is key during news. Let structure confirm.
✅ Track price behavior near 14:30 CEST, avoid instant spikes.
✅ Best sniper RR zones:
🔹 Sell from 3352 or 3370
🔸 Buy from 3308 or 3288
📊 Precision matters. Structure wins.
👍 Like this if it helped you map the move, and 🔔 follow for tomorrow’s sniper entry.
— GoldFxMinds
Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
USD under pressure ahead of PCE—gold holds $3,300The euro has reached its highest level since October 2021, driven in part by commitments from European leaders to increase NATO defence spending.
The swing factor for the euro dollar in the shorter term is the possibility of US rate cuts. Critical for this will be US inflation data, starting with tomorrow's PCE report. If tariffs fail to significantly lift inflation, the case for a July rate cut strengthens—adding further pressure on the dollar.
That weakness is also supporting gold. XAUUSD is above $3,300. Recent price action has formed a potential symmetrical triangle on the daily chart—a structure that can precede a breakout. A move above $3,400 could signal renewed bullish momentum.
BULLS HOLDING KEY PIVOT 〉ATH AROUND THE CORNER As illustrated, Im trying to visualize what a potential bull run could look like starting from what seems to be a "bullish signature" move by gold: a diagonal double bottom.
Don't believe me; go back in time and study how gold makes bottoms and how new bull runs start. The fact that it was NY that manipulated BOTH times and got the best price, is a strong footprint that MIGHT just indicate a potential bottom (at least of this current bearish correction.
I won't say "this is it" and ATH are next FROM this potential rebound; HOWEVER, it could indicate at least the next 10 to 24 hours of potential bullish impulse to retest a degree of the bearish drop since Sunday's weekly open.
Hammer candle from Tuesday's NY session low + today's 4H bullish engulfing, are also powerful components that show bullish strength indicating 3300 to be a major support area.
I'm expecting (BUT NOT ADVISING) Asia to break aggressively to the upside confirming that this could have been this current correction's bottom, and/or at least this week's low.
Should Thursday close above Tuesday's high or consolidating near it, also shows signs of bullish strength and opens the door for Friday to make a second bullish impulse move.
This would reflect on the Weekly candle leaving a long rejection wick and closing (potentially) back above 3350 - 3360.
Should this be the case, the following week would have the road paved to lift off price to retest previous 4H highs of 3440 - 3450 range.
...
July is a bullish month historically. Don't believe me; search "seasonality tool, gold" and see it for yourself.
It is a matter of weeks for Gold to breakout of this wide accumulation phase it has been since end of April, and start a fresh and brand new bull run that could/should last until the end of the year.
-
GOOD LUCK
Persa
BTC continues to short at high levels during the day📰 Impact of news:
1. Geopolitical impact
📈 Market analysis:
BTC has reached an intraday high of 108,125, just one step away from the all-time high of 112,000. With the increase in trading volume and institutional sentiment turning bullish, the momentum seems to be in the bulls' favor. In addition to institutional buying, the ceasefire agreement in the Iran-Israel war is also an important factor in Bitcoin's sharp rebound. Trump's announcement of the end of the war almost immediately triggered a surge in the cryptocurrency market. However, the overall pattern has not changed, and the range resistance has not been broken, so we still keep the idea of shorting at high levels.
🏅 Trading strategies:
SELL 108000-107500
TP 104500-103500
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
XAUUSD: Trend changed to bearish. Significant downside potentialGold turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.253, MACD = 18.142, ADX = 16.679) as it crossed below both the 4H MA200 and 1D MA50. The two form a Bearish Cross. Technically a Channel Down has emerged, no different than those that emerged after rejections on the R1 Zone (like now). As long as the 4H MA50 acts as a Resistance and holds, we will be bearish, aiming at the S1 level (TP = 3,245).
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Continue to short gold!Gold prices rose modestly on Wednesday, mainly benefiting from the US dollar index hovering at a one-week low and the low US bond yields, which boosted the purchasing power of non-dollar investors. The market is closely watching the situation in the Middle East, and the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran is still uncertain. However, as the conflict between the two sides has temporarily eased, the geopolitical risk premium that had previously pushed up gold has gradually dissipated, and safe-haven funds have continued to flow out of the gold market, limiting the room for gold prices to rebound.
Technically, gold closed with a big negative line on the daily line, recording the seventh consecutive week of decline, which significantly undermined the recent bullish pattern. The current market sentiment is clearly bearish. After the sharp drop last night, there may be a technical adjustment today, but the 3347-level high point above has become a key resistance. If it cannot be broken, the short-term pressure situation will remain unchanged. The downward support focuses on the 3300-level area. If it is lost, it may further test the previous low of 3290, or even fall to the important turning point of 3274. Overall, the decline of the US dollar brings short-term respite, but the technical selling pressure and the fading of risk aversion continue to suppress the rebound momentum of gold. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term.
Gold XAUUSD Analysis 25.06.2025The Gold shows with a recent upward trend following a period of consolidation and a dip. Key observations:
The price previously fluctuated between a support level around 3,310-3,319 and a resistance near 3,354.
The current price is consolidating near the recent high, suggesting potential for further upward movement or a pullback.
Signal:
Buy signal is present in the range of 3,316-3,319, aligning with the support level, offering a good entry point for a potential upward move.
Hanzo Drex | 30-Min Break Out Setup – 200 Pips in Sight🔥 Gold – 15 Min Scalping Analysis
⚡️ Objective: Precision Break out Execution
Time Frame: 15 -Minute Warfare
Entry Mode: Only after verified Break out
👌Bullish Break : 3333.5
Price must break liquidity with high volume to confirm the move.
☄️ Hanzo Protocol: Dual- Entry Intel
Zone Activated: Deep Analysis
➕ 4 wicks connected at 3333
➕ 7 wicks connected at 3329.5
➕ Body Close at 3328
➕ Body Close at 3334
➕ Liquidity at 3344