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Gold will continue to fall, and it is time to short goldBrothers, first of all, let me introduce myself. I am Allen, a professional trader with several years of experience. I have always believed in a saying: It is not important to judge right or wrong. What is important is how much profit you get when you are right and how much loss you lose when you are wrong. I cannot guarantee that I have no mistakes, but I have indeed helped many people to gain a lot, so my posts will share with you my most authentic thoughts, experiences and trading strategies, and move towards the road of glory with my brothers. Gold continued to fall and broke, and the bulls had no counterattack strength. The selling sentiment was already quite obvious. At this stage, I am unswervingly bearish on gold. From a short-term technical perspective, the previous overbought phenomenon has been repaired to a certain extent with the retracement, of course, it still tends to be on the short side technically. In addition, the sharp rise of the US dollar has caused absolute suppression on gold, which is more conducive to the continued decline of gold. Gold is currently trading around 2863. As gold continues to fall, the upper resistance area moves downwards. Gold is currently experiencing resistance at 2870-2880. Therefore, in terms of short-term trading, we can wait for gold to rebound and boldly short gold after approaching this area. If gold falls below the 2850 mark next, then gold is expected to continue to test the area near 2830. Opportunities are reserved for those who are prepared. If you seize the opportunity, you can seize wealth. I share my trading thinking and logic for free every day. Many friends have reported that it is very helpful. If you want to grasp market trends, trading ideas and trading plans in a timely manner, you can follow the bottom of the article for details!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GoldKing_Allen
Crude Oil - The Manipulation of Trend LinesIn this example on Crude Oil I give some insight into how trendlines and traditional support & resistance theories may be used by "smart money" for the purposes of facilitating their positions via inducing liquidity. Basically, trendlines are drawn along the highs or lows of price movements and help to identify the direction and strength of a trend. They serve as visual guidelines for traders, highlighting potential turning points or continuation patterns. Support and resistance levels are areas where the price historically finds a floor or ceiling, leading many market participants to place their entry and exit orders around these zones. Because these levels are based on historical price action, they hold significant psychological value among retail traders. The Mechanism of Liquidity Manipulation Liquidity Pools and Stop Loss Clusters: Retail traders often cluster their stop losses near prominent support or resistance levels. Smart money is aware of these liquidity pools and can engineer price moves to trigger these stops. For example, by intentionally nudging the price through a known support level, institutional players can trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders. This “stop run” injects a burst of liquidity into the market, which can then be absorbed as positions are liquidated at less favorable prices for retail traders. False Breakouts and Reversals: Another common tactic involves creating false breakouts. A price move that breaks above a resistance level (or below a support level) might initially appear to signal a new trend. However, smart money can deliberately drive prices just past these technical barriers to trigger stop-loss orders and entry orders. Once sufficient liquidity is collected from the triggered orders, they may reverse the move. This reversal traps traders who anticipated a sustained breakout, leaving them with positions that quickly turn against them. Exploiting Herd Behavior and Market Sentiment: The widespread reliance on technical analysis means that many traders have similar expectations about where price will reverse or accelerate. This collective mindset, or herd behavior, creates predictable zones of liquidity. Smart money can capitalize on these self-fulfilling prophecies by anticipating the mass reaction around key trendlines and support/resistance levels. They use this insight to position themselves ahead of the crowd, executing large trades that move the market in their favor. Strategic Benefits for Smart Money By manipulating these common technical levels, smart money participants can: Maximize Efficiency: Accumulate or distribute large positions with minimal market impact by tapping into pre-existing liquidity pools. Control Market Direction: Influence short-term price movements to create advantageous conditions for larger trades. Enhance Risk-Reward Profiles: Trigger stop losses at critical junctures, effectively reducing their own risk while capitalizing on forced exits from retail traders. Conclusion While trendlines and support/resistance are invaluable tools for assessing market structure and potential price movements, they also serve as instruments for liquidity manipulation by experienced market participants. The predictable nature of stop-loss placements and entry orders around these levels creates opportunities for smart money to trigger cascades of orders, generating liquidity in their favor. As a result, retail traders must be aware of these dynamics and consider them when planning their trades, acknowledging that what appears to be a genuine breakout may, in fact, be a carefully orchestrated move to capture liquidity. This nuanced understanding highlights the double-edged nature of technical analysis tools in modern trading. By appreciating both their utility and potential for manipulation, traders can better navigate the complex interplay between market psychology and institutional strategy.
TVC:USOIL
by Road_2_Funded
1
Trade Idea: XAUUSD Short ( SELL LIMIT )Technical Analysis: 1. Daily Chart: • Trend: Uptrend but showing signs of exhaustion. • MACD: Still bullish but momentum is weakening. • RSI: 53.11, indicating neutral momentum, with a possible shift to downside pressure. 2. 15-Min Chart: • Trend: Clear downtrend forming. • MACD: Bearish momentum is strengthening. • RSI: 42.74, nearing oversold but with room for further decline. 3. 3-Min Chart: • Trend: Short-term consolidation after a sell-off. • MACD: Slight bullish divergence but still negative. • RSI: 44.71, meaning there is no immediate reversal signal yet. Fundamental Analysis: • US Dollar Strength: If there is upcoming economic data supporting a stronger USD (such as rising bond yields or hawkish Fed comments), gold could decline further. • Recent Price Action: Gold has been in a long-term uptrend, but the recent pullback suggests a correction is in play. Trade Setup: • Entry: 2878 • Stop Loss (SL): 2892 (14 pips above entry) • Take Profit (TP): 2850 (28 pips below entry) • Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 2:1 FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSD
FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by KeN-WeNzEl
4 reasons that Gold may have peaked: Gold can thrive on uncertainty, and for the past three years, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been a key driver. However, recent developments hopefully suggest a possible shift toward peace. While a complete resolution is uncertain, the beginning of peace talks, no matter how flawed they appear, could weaken gold’s safe-haven appeal. Gold benefits from lower interest rates, as it competes with yield-bearing assets like bonds. Earlier in the year, markets expected the Federal Reserve to cut rates aggressively. However, recent economic data and Trump’s economic policies mean inflation could be a greater concern than initially thought. This has led to doubts about how quickly the Fed will ease policy. If rate cuts are delayed or scaled back, gold’s upside could be limited. Gold and Bitcoin are seen as alternative stores of value. Bitcoin has recently fallen about 20% from its highs. This could suggest a broader shift in risk sentiment, potentially impacting gold if investors move back into the U.S. dollar or other assets. Markets initially expected Trump to push aggressive tariffs, which would have fueled inflation and boosted gold. However, so far, his rhetoric has been more meandering than expected, with only a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. If markets believe that Trump’s trade policies will be less disruptive than previously thought, gold loses a key bullish narrative.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
XAUUSD - Worries about the US economy!?Gold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 30-minute timeframe and is in its descending channel. An upward correction of gold towards the supply limits will provide us with the next selling position with a good risk-reward ratio. An economist believes that the massive influx of gold and silver into the United States, coupled with speculation about the liquidity of the country’s gold reserves, could have profound effects on American consumers as well as the domestic and global economy. Thorsten Pollitt, professor emeritus of economics at the University of Bayreuth and publisher of the BOOM & BUST report, told Kitco News that the increase in physical gold and silver inflows into the US is not surprising, as banks are increasing their reserves to counter potential risks associated with tariffs. He stressed that while the likelihood of tariffs on gold and silver is low, the risk is significant enough for banks and investors to take a precautionary approach. Looking at the long-term implications of this, Pollitt explained that the increase in US gold and silver reserves, coupled with the government’s renewed focus on its reserves, could lead to expectations that both precious metals would be used as currency alongside the US dollar. He added that using gold and silver as hard currency alongside the dollar could help reduce the problem of inflation, which has become a major challenge for the economy. However, he stressed that for such a scenario to happen, the price of gold and silver would have to reach a much higher level to be commensurate with the size of the US economy. (Hard currency refers to a form of currency that is globally accepted and retains its value due to its stability and reliability.) Pollitt went on to explain that the significant increase in US government debt has put not only the Federal Reserve, but the entire fiat-based monetary system at risk. “In the future, the Federal Reserve will no longer be able to maintain the same flexibility that it has in the past,” he said. For example, in times of financial crises, the Fed would usually support the economy by injecting liquidity into it. But now, doing so could trigger a wave of hyperinflation. We now know that the Fed can no longer simply be the savior of the economy as it used to be.” He also warned that the Fed’s policies have led to the market not pricing in risks properly. For example, yields on risky corporate bonds are significantly below their historical average. Currently, the yield spread between B-rated corporate bonds and U.S. Treasury bonds is 1.45 percent, its lowest level since mid-1979. Warren Buffett, one of the most influential figures in the investment world, has made his concerns clear. In his annual letter to shareholders, the 94-year-old has a stark message for policymakers in Washington: financial turmoil and monetary instability pose a serious threat to the U.S. economy. The warning comes as his conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway has delivered a record-breaking profit and a record $334.2 billion in cash. But Buffett is treading carefully as investment opportunities appear to be shrinking and is preparing to hand over the reins to his appointed successor, Greg Abel. In the letter, Buffett expressed concern about the growing U.S. budget deficit and warned of a possible extension of tax cuts that began under Trump. He emphasizes that “irresponsible fiscal policies can destroy the value of paper money” and emphasizes the importance of sound public financial management. According to him, the stability of the US economy depends on a strong dollar, and any mistake in monetary policy can have irreparable consequences. With the rapidly growing budget deficit and increasing discussions about extending the Trump-era tax cuts, Buffett warns that the value of the dollar may weaken. He calls on Washington policymakers to maintain a stable economic framework and support the vulnerable: “Support people who have been unfortunate in life through no fault of their own. They deserve a better life.” Warren Buffett reminds us of one of the fundamental principles of investing: “In times of uncertainty, caution and responsible management are more important than ever.” His warning about the growth of the US public debt and the depreciation of the dollar may come true if current trends continue. Moreover, his focus on investing in Japan and preparing for his successor is a key step for the future of Berkshire Hathaway, a company that must find its way without him in a world of increasing economic instability.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
WTI - Will Oil Return to the Uptrend?!WTI oil is below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving within its medium-term descending channel. If the downward trend continues towards the demand range, the next opportunity to buy oil with a risk-reward ratio will be provided for us. An upward correction of oil towards the supply range will provide us with an opportunity to sell it. Despite markets showing resilience to geopolitical uncertainties following recent tensions between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, any signs of economic weakness in the United States could prompt investors to raise their expectations for interest rate cuts. However, even if inflation data does not reinforce such expectations, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the U.S. dollar. In the United States, inflation remains a major challenge for the Federal Reserve. The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3% in January, dashing hopes for two rate cuts in 2025. However, the market’s reaction was not overly negative, as investors anticipated that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which the Federal Reserve prioritizes, would be less severe than the CPI. According to the Cleveland Federal Reserve’s Nowcast model, the core PCE index fell from 2.8% to 2.7% in January, while the overall PCE rate declined to 2.5%. If the actual data released on Friday aligns with these projections and no unexpected increases appear in the monthly figures, expectations for two 0.25% rate cuts may strengthen, exerting downward pressure on the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, U.S.President Joe Biden attempted to foster freer elections in Venezuela by extending an offer of cooperation, but this initiative failed. Now, Trump has announced that he will terminate this policy. He also noted that Venezuela is refusing to take back illegal migrants who had arrived in the U.S. This agreement, which had eased sanctions on oil, gas, and gold, was partially revoked in April 2024 after opposition candidate María Corina Machado was barred from running in the presidential election. Trump wrote on Truth Social: “We hereby revoke the concessions that corrupt Joe Biden granted to Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela regarding the oil deal dated November 26, 2022, as well as the electoral conditions in Venezuela, which the Maduro regime has failed to meet. Additionally, the regime has not returned the violent criminals it sent to our great America as quickly as promised. Therefore, I am ordering that Biden’s ineffective and unmet concessions be revoked as of the March 1 extension date.” Today, Trump escalated his stance on Venezuela by canceling Chevron’s oil license. This move was prompted by Caracas’s refusal to accept deportees and implement democratic reforms. President Trump announced that he would revoke the Biden-era license that had allowed Chevron to produce oil in Venezuela. This decision appears to be a significant setback for Chevron, the American oil giant. On his social media platform, Truth Social, Trump stated that he would rescind the license granted on November 26, 2022, which had permitted Chevron to operate in Venezuela.
TVC:USOILLong
by Ali_PSND
XAUUSD - 1hr | Wyckoff Event UPDATEWe await the price to confirm the last step (6) to complete the distribution Phase. The price has fallen to SUPPORT as we predicted. Once a LOWER LOWER is formed, the Distribution Phase is complete. Expect gold turn to remain bearish. Falling as low as 2815. BULLS : If the price can respect the support and bounce back above 2910 with strong bullish momentum, we can see the price rally back up to the 2950 area. BEARS : If the price creates the lower low as we are expecting around 2860-2880. Then look for the price to: 1. retest support as far back up to 2910. 2. dramatically fall and continue its pullback as low as 2800-2820
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSD
by nikdobii
(USOIL) on the 4-hour (4H) timeframe, (USOIL) on the 4-hour (4H) timeframe, showing technical analysis and potential price movement. Chart Details: • Current Price: Around 69.01 - 69.07 • Technical Analysis: • Support Zone: 68.26 - 69.18 (marked in red) • Resistance Levels: 75.14 - 77.03 (yellow and purple zone) • Chart Pattern: Possible double bottom or bullish reversal setup • Expected Movement: If the support holds, price may rise towards 74-75 • Previous Resistance: Horizontal key levels and a head & shoulders pattern Conclusion: This chart suggests a bullish breakout possibility, especially if the price stays above 69 and moves upward. However, if it breaks below 68.26, further downside pressure could build up.
TVC:USOIL
by Artiverma256
Trade Idea: XAUUSD Long ( BUY STOP )Analysis: 1. Daily Chart: • Strong uptrend with price making higher highs and higher lows. • MACD is bullish, and RSI is at 62.67 (still below overbought territory). • No major resistance above the current level, suggesting continuation. 2. 15-Min Chart: • Price is recovering from a recent pullback. • MACD is turning positive, signaling a potential bullish move. • RSI at 53.30 suggests room for upside. 3. 3-Min Chart: • Consolidation near 2916.88, indicating a possible breakout. • MACD and RSI show signs of bullish momentum returning. Trade Setup: • Position: Long (Buy) • Entry: 2920 (above recent consolidation) • Stop-Loss (SL): 2908 (recent minor support) • Take-Profit (TP): 2944 (next key resistance) • Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 2:1 Fundamental Justification: • Gold remains bullish due to inflation concerns and potential rate cut expectations from the Fed. • No significant bearish catalyst, and momentum favors bulls. FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSD
FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by KeN-WeNzEl
Will Russia’s New Dawn Reshape Global Finance?As the Russo-Ukrainian War edges toward a hypothetical resolution, Russia stands poised for an economic renaissance that could redefine its place in the global arena. Retaining control over resource-laden regions like Crimea and Donbas, Russia secures access to coal, natural gas, and vital maritime routes—assets that promise a surge in national wealth. The potential lifting of U.S. sanctions further amplifies this prospect, reconnecting Russian enterprises to international markets and unleashing energy exports. Yet, this resurgence is shadowed by complexity: Russian oligarchs, architects of influence, are primed to extend their reach into these territories, striking resource deals with the U.S. at mutually beneficial rates. This presents a tantalizing yet treacherous frontier for investors—where opportunity dances with ethical and geopolitical uncertainties. The implications ripple outward, poised to recalibrate global economic currents. Lower commodity prices could ease inflationary pressures in the West, offering relief to consumers while challenging energy titans like Saudi Arabia and Canada to adapt. Foreign investors might find allure in Russia’s undervalued assets and a strengthening ruble, but caution is paramount. The oligarchs’ deft maneuvering—exploiting political leverage to secure advantageous contracts—casts an enigmatic shadow over this revival. Their pragmatic pivot toward U.S. partnerships hints at a new economic pragmatism, yet it prompts a deeper question: Can such arrangements endure, and at what cost to global stability? The stakes are high, and the outcomes remain tantalizingly uncertain. This unfolding scenario challenges us to ponder the broader horizon. How will investors weigh the promise of profit against the moral quandaries of engaging with a resurgent Russia? What might the global financial order become if Russia’s economic ascent gains momentum? The answers elude easy resolution, but the potential is undeniable—Russia’s trajectory could anchor or upend markets, depending on the world’s response. Herein lies the inspiration and the test: to navigate this landscape demands not just foresight, but a bold reckoning with the interplay of economics, ethics, and power.
RUS:IRUSLong
by UDIS_View
Analysis of gold trend on 2.26th Spot gold fell below $2,900 an ounce for the first time since February 18, after U.S. consumer confidence suffered its largest monthly decline in more than three years in February. Interpretation of the news: With the Federal Reserve remaining cautious and the Trump administration increasing policy uncertainty, the U.S. dollar and gold markets have diverged. At present, the market's focus is still on the Federal Reserve's economic data in the next few months and the Trump administration's policy implementation. The trends of the US dollar and gold may continue to be dominated by these factors. This Friday, the United States will release the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which is the inflation indicator that the Fed pays the most attention to. The market expects the data to fall to the lowest level since June last year. If the data meets expectations, it may further strengthen the Fed's reason for cutting interest rates and continue to support gold prices. However, if the inflation data is strong, the Fed may remain more cautious on the issue of interest rate cuts, which may put some pressure on the short-term trend of gold. Analysis of gold trend: Gold fell all day on Tuesday, and the US market also ushered in a waterfall dive. It fell from 2944 and reached a low of 2888 as of the time of posting, with an overall decline of 56 points. Although there is a small rebound now, it is still fluctuating below 2900. Now the technical indicators are all in a bearish state and have no reference significance; now it mainly depends on the consolidation of the late trading, using time to exchange for space consolidation. From the hourly level, the decline of gold prices in the US market directly broke through this week's low of 2921 and 2900. Now the low support is converted to a high suppression reference. Secondly, there is the psychological pressure of the 2900 mark. If the closing price of gold is still below this position today, then Wednesday will still be dominated by rebound shorting. If it effectively stands above 2900, then pay attention to the rebound repair of gold prices in the Asian market on Wednesday; Specific operation suggestions: 1. If the gold price closes above 2900 on Tuesday, short and sell near 2915 with 2922 as protection in the Asian session on Wednesday, and then observe the break of 2900; 2. If the gold price closes below 2900 on Tuesday, then wait for the gold price to rebound and recover to around 2905 in the Asian market on Wednesday and go short and watch the breakout of the low of 2888; 3. As for the long operation, our team of professional and senior gold trading analysts recommends waiting for the gold price to break below 2888, then going long near 2880 to see a rebound, and focusing on the 2900 target above.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Caesar_Gorman1
Copper is gonna to complete the 2nd leg??Hi all trading lovers and copper buyers... Seems that after BREAKOUT from Descending Triangle and Pullback to breakout level, price is going to complete the 2nd BULLISH Leg in Weekly uptrend with a round level target (5.5555)... (Pullback could be a bit deeper...) PLEASE NOTE THAT IS ONLY AN ANALYSIS AND COULD BE WRONG... MARKET IS BASED ON POSSIBILITIES AND UNCERTAINTIES... MANAGE YOUR RISK... #Forex #Trading #Analysis #Copper #Chart #Spike #Wedge #Uptrend
FX:COPPERLong
by MJElahifx
GOLD → Volatile. Entering consolidation. What is next?OANDA:XAUUSD after a short-term uptrend, gold is now shifting into a consolidation phase, with speculative traders actively defending key risk zones. In this environment, what can we expect from the precious metal next? Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff policies and weak U.S. economic data has driven investors back toward safe-haven assets. However, after reaching a record high of $2,956 on Tuesday, gold experienced a pullback due to profit-taking and a decline in Chinese imports. Despite this, weak U.S. consumer confidence data has helped support a partial recovery. While gold still holds bullish potential, its upside movement is being restrained by a stronger U.S. dollar and rising bond yields. However, trade war concerns continue to fuel demand for the metal. Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: 2,921 – 2,942 Support: 2,905 – 2,888 At this stage, the market is forming a sideways range, leading to two potential scenarios: A pullback to retest the 2,905 – 2,888 support zone before a potential rebound. A breakout above resistance, confirming a continuation of the bullish trend. If buyers can push gold into the 2,921 – 2,929 zone and maintain control above this level, the metal could regain upward momentum. Stay tuned and seize the best opportunities!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold