GOLD - Price can start to decline, breaking support levelHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some days ago price fell inside falling channel, where it soon reached and broke at once $2720 level.
Then price continued to decline and later fell to $2535 points, after which XAU started to grow.
Price exited from falling channel and soon entered to flat, breaking $2620 level, where it soon reached top part.
After this, price was corrected and some time traded near $2620 level, and then grew to top part one more time.
But soon, Gold turned around and declined Below $2620 level, exiting from flat and recently rising back to this level.
Now, I think that Gold can make a small move up and then start to decline to $2540
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Commodities
Gold: Multi Tie FrameHello Traders
In the weekly timeframe, an ascending channel is observed, showing a good reaction at its upper boundary. We are waiting for a price pullback to the next resistance level.
In the daily chart, an ascending trendline has been broken, with two returns to the breakdown area around 2600.700, indicating the strength of sellers. The price returning to this area for the third time also shows the buyers' insistence. If the price can stabilize below 2532.800, the likelihood of further decline increases. Conversely, if the price cannot break through the green zone, we predict an upward movement to 2606.200.
At the same time, we anticipate a slow downward trend and fluctuations to around 2568 in the coming days.
Bearish drop off pullbacksupport?WTI oil (XTI/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could srop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 69.65
1st Support: 68.56
1st Resistance: 70.71
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USOIL LONG FROM SUPPORT
Hello, Friends!
We are going long on the USOIL with the target of 70.67 level, because the pair is oversold and will soon hit the support line below. We deduced the oversold condition from the price being near to the lower BB band. However, we should use low risk here because the 1W TF is red and gives us a counter-signal.
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SI - Silver Looks GoldenHow does this look?
Yep, I’m stalking a Long, just like in Gold (check out my latest Gold post).
With the price sitting at the Center-Line, it might drop a bit further to the Shift-Line. Or, it could start climbing today.
For me, this is a "building a position" scenario.
Buy… wait… buy more when the price confirms my projection. Or bail out if it doesn’t.
Trading is so simple...
...but SO HARD §8-)
Happy digging!
After the US pivoted monetary policy : ??At the beginning of the trading session on December 19 (US time), the world gold price continued to decrease after the US announced the number of unemployment benefit applications was 220,000, down from the forecast of 230,000 applications. This prompted the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to slow down the process of cutting interest rates in the future.
Previously, gold investors were disappointed when the Fed sent out an unfavorable signal right after the monetary policy meeting on December 18. The US Central Bank issued a new forecast, showing that there will be 2 rounds of 25 basis point interest rate cuts next year.
According to independent metal trader Tai Wong, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell revealed that he will slow down the process of cutting interest rates in the context of persistent inflation.
This message from the Fed will make the gold price trend worse in the long term.
According to analysts, the gold market has been volatile at times after the US pivoted its monetary policy. Specifically, the FED is expected to cut interest rates by a total of 0.5 percentage points only twice in 2025. This is a big change compared to the FED's announcement in September 2024 that there would be 4 interest rate cuts next year. This move has stimulated a very strong increase in the price of the USD and US bond interest rates.
Because gold is priced in USD, when the "health" of this currency is stronger, it will put pressure on the price of this precious metal. Higher US bond interest rates have attracted investors to put capital into bonds, reducing demand for gold.
Gold vs. Silver: Is the Ratio Signaling a Major ShiftIntroduction:
Precious metals are displaying promising price action, warranting a closer look at the gold AMEX:GLD to silver AMEX:SLV ratio. This ratio provides valuable insights during bull markets:
Bullish Silver: In a strong bull market, silver typically outperforms gold, causing the ratio to decline.
Gold Leading: Recently, gold has taken the lead, advancing in a corrective rally, but there are signs this could change.
Analysis:
Inverted Saucer Formation: On the gold-to-silver ratio chart, a large inverted saucer formation is emerging. This bearish pattern indicates a potential breakdown below key support levels, signaling silver’s outperformance in the months ahead.
What to Watch:
A confirmed breakdown of support in this ratio could signal a major shift in favor of silver.
If silver outperforms, prices could surge to retest its 2011 highs of $48-$50 next year.
Gold Outlook: Despite the shift in favor of silver, gold remains bullish. A breakout could target significant upside, with price projections of $3,300-$3,400.
Trade Setup:
Silver Bullish Setup:
Trigger: A breakdown in the gold-to-silver ratio, confirming silver’s relative strength.
Target: SLV retesting $48-$50.
Stop Loss: Manage risk by placing stops near recent support levels in silver.
Gold Bullish Setup:
Gold continues to show strength, targeting $3,300-$3,400. Monitor for breakouts in gold prices alongside silver’s potential surge.
Conclusion:
The precious metals setup looks increasingly bullish. The gold-to-silver ratio is hinting at a shift toward silver outperformance, a hallmark of true bull markets. If this scenario plays out, silver could retest its 2011 highs, while gold targets new all-time highs. This is a chart and setup worth keeping a close eye on in the coming months. Which metal do you think will lead the charge? Share your thoughts below!
Charts:
(Include charts showing the gold-to-silver ratio with the inverted saucer formation, key support levels, and projected breakdown targets. Add gold and silver price charts highlighting bullish setups.)
Tags: #Gold #Silver #PreciousMetals #GLD #SLV #BullMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingIdeas
GOLD --> The Downtrend Persists. What’s the Next Target?Dear Friends,
Gold has seen a modest rise amidst a broader bearish trend, currently trading around $2,617, up 1.27% on the day.
This slight uptick can be attributed to sellers pausing their pressure, coupled with the fundamental appeal of gold increasing. As the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding precious metal decreases due to lower interest rates, gold becomes more attractive.
However, the Federal Reserve's cautious outlook on rate cuts—suggesting smaller reductions than expected next year—could weigh on gold's upward momentum.
Additionally, US Treasury yields edged higher on December 18, with the 10-year yield reaching its highest level since May. Treasuries, often considered a direct competitor to gold due to their interest-bearing nature, could diminish gold's appeal if yields continue to rise.
Ben personally advises waiting for a decisive candle close below the 2636 liquidity zone before taking further advantage of the market trend.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Intraday Bearish Bias
Gold nicely retested a recently broken key daily horizontal support.
After its test, I see very intraday bearish price action with
a confirmed local Change of Character CHoCH.
The price will most likely drop lower at least to 2585.
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GOLD--> The downtrend is not over yet!Hi guys.
Today, gold prices are trending lower with the current price hovering around $2,600.
Accordingly, this decline is due to the Fed signaling a cautious policy easing path next year, still supporting higher US bond yields and supporting the USD to stand near a two-year high.
Therefore, in the short term, it would not be surprising if Brian prioritizes a short strategy and targets at least $2,538.
GOLD - Should I sell?Brian, hello everyone!
Gold prices “plunged” and fell more than 2% to a one-month low in mid-week trading after the Fed decided to cut interest rates as expected, but noted that it would slow the pace of borrowing cost reductions in the near term. The Fed’s stance boosted the USD and bond yields.
Based on the performance of gold on the 4-hour time frame, along with indicators from EMA and RSI, a bearish trend is expected in the coming period. With the current unfavorable situation for gold, the price of gold is likely to reach $2,537 in the near future.
Weekly Forex Forecast: GOLD & SILVER Are Bearish! SELL Them!This forecast is for the week of DEC. 16 - 20th.
Gold and Silver are both bearish, after raiding the buy side liquidity. Silver is "heavier" than GOLD, so it would be my preferred asset to sell! There is support for lower prices, and no real support for higher prices currently.
Seems like a no brainer.
Wait for a pullback to the -FVG and look for a proper sell setup, my friends.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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2024-12-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold - Bearish. I doubt we can close the week below 2560 but we now have a giant bear gap between 2615 - 2652. No interested in selling this tomorrow but if we close the week below 2600, the bull trend is gone for good.
comment : No matter what you think China is doing with Gold, this market is going down. We are 200 points below the ath and the bull trend is most likely over. If we close this week below 2630, it would be the second close below the weekly 20ema since January.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2590 - 2640
bull case : Bulls are in pain. Every rip is sold hard and we have a clear bear channel. Hard to come up with arguments for the bulls right now. Best they can hope for is to stay above 2600 but this market is as weak as it gets since last week.
Invalidation is below 2595.
bear case: 2566 is their main target and I am not confident they can get it tomorrow. I expect more chop near 2600 over the next 2 weeks but for Q1 I have wet dreams about 2400. If you want to trade this, look for shorts near the 3h or 4h 20ema and longs only if 2600 continues to be bigger support.
Invalidation is above 2642.
short term: Neutral. I don’t expect this to go into the weekend far from 2600 but for next 2 weeks I have 2 measured move targets below 2570.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-19: No bigger opinion on this for the rest of 2024. Market is in balance until we see a new impulse. Likely close around 2600.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: selling near the 4h 20ema or bear trend line.
Gold - Starting A Major -25% Correction!Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) is starting to reject resistance:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
After rallying an incredible +35% during 2024, Gold is now (finally) starting to show some expected weakness at a major resistance trendline. Following this quite significant overextension, it is quite likely that we will see at least a short term bearish correction now.
Levels to watch: $2.700, $2.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Could the Silver rise from here?The price is reacting off the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 28.78
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 27.71
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 29.83
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
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Bearish drop?XAU/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 2,647.58
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 2,649.06
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 2,562.07
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
GOLD Bearish Breakout! Selll!
Hello,Traders!
GOLD is trading in a
Downtrend and the price
Made a bearish breakout
A retest and pullback
From the key level of 2620$
So we are bearish biased
And we will be expecting
A further bearish move down
Sell!
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Gold Market Update:Corective Phase Set Stage for Further DeclineGold has entered a corrective phase following yesterday's substantial decline, with price action consolidating within a defined range. This period of consolidation is expected to persist, allowing the market to recalibrate before the prevailing bearish momentum likely resumes. Downside targets remain intact, with the next leg lower anticipated once the correction concludes. Engage with this analysis by liking, sharing, or sharing your perspectives in the comments below.