Gold Slips as Ceasefire Eases SafeHaven Demand Bearish Below3339Gold Drops on Israel-Iran Ceasefire
Gold prices declined as safe-haven demand eased following President Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Despite the pullback, gold remains up nearly 23% year-to-date, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty driven by Trump’s tariffs, and robust central bank purchases.
Market Focus:
All eyes are now on U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, which may offer fresh insights into potential near-term interest rate cuts.
Technical Outlook:
Gold remains under bearish pressure as long as it trades below the 3329–3339 pivot zone.
A confirmed 4H candle close below 3329, or especially 3309, would further validate downside momentum toward the support range.
Support Levels: 3302, 3281, 3256
Resistance Levels: 3364, 3393
A clear break below 3302–3281 would open the path toward deeper bearish continuation.
Commodities
Gold May Dip Short-Term Amid Cautious Fed & Geopolitical Calm📊 Market Overview:
• Gold saw a slight correction as Middle East tensions eased following a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel.
• A weaker USD and lower U.S. Treasury yields offered some support to gold prices.
• However, the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts and upcoming testimony from Chair Powell continue to weigh on gold sentiment.
📉 Technical Analysis:
• Key Resistance Levels:
– $3,350–3,360 (21/50-day SMAs)
– $3,370–3,385 (Fibonacci zone and swing highs)
• Nearest Support Levels:
– $3,316–3,320 (intraday lows and psychological level)
– $3,300–3,305 (strong support), followed by $3,245–3,275 if broken
• EMA 09: Price is currently trading below the 09 EMA, indicating a short-term downtrend.
• Candlestick Pattern / Volume / Momentum:
– The 15-minute chart shows slight recovery signals, but with weak momentum; RSI is below average and MACD is slightly bearish.
– No strong reversal candlestick pattern detected; small-bodied candles (doji) suggest indecision and selling pressure remains near $3,340.
📌 Outlook:
Gold may decline slightly in the short term, potentially retesting the $3,316–3,320 support zone. A rebound is possible if the USD weakens further or the Fed unexpectedly signals rate cuts.
💡 Suggested Trading Plan:
🔻 SELL XAU/USD at: $3,335–3,340
🎯 TP: $3,330 - $3,325
❌ SL: $3,345
🔺 BUY XAU/USD at: $3,318 – 3,315
🎯 TP: $3,320 - $3,325
❌ SL: $3,312
WTI Oil H4 | Continuation of downward trajectory?WTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 67.15 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 70.30 which is a level that sits above a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 62.49 which is a swing-low support.
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Gold H4 | Pullback resistance at 50% Fibonacci retracementGold (XAU/USD) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 3,344.72 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 3,400.00 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 3,276.41 which is a swing-low support.
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Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Silver Outperforms Gold, Eyes $36Silver climbed back toward $36, bouncing from over two-week lows on falling Treasury yields and a softer dollar. While the Israel-Iran ceasefire remains shaky, Fed Chair Powell said “many paths are possible,” hinting at a flexible rate stance depending on job market data.
Strong industrial demand and tight supply continue to support silver, which is up nearly 9% in June, far outpacing gold’s modest gains.
Resistance is seen at 37.50, while support holds at 35.40.
Gold Rebounds on Ceasefire FragilityGold edged back up to around $3,330, recovering from a two-week low. While the Israel-Iran ceasefire brought temporary calm, a US intelligence report showed that Iran’s nuclear progress was only briefly disrupted, raising concerns about renewed tensions.
Fed Chair Powell adopted a cautious stance, saying rates would likely stay unchanged for now, though a July cut remains possible. Diverging views among Fed members on inflation and job data may limit gold’s upside in the near term.
Resistance is seen at $3,355, while support holds at $3,285.
4‑Hour Analysis – Supply & Demand Overview 25 June 20251. Market Structure
XAU/USD currently trades at 3333 and shows clear higher highs and higher lows on the 4‑hour timeframe—reflecting a bullish structure backed by recent swing lows above 3300 and highs nearing 3365
2. Key Demand Zones
DZ1: 3320–3330 – Consolidation region with multiple wicks and price rejections; confirmed buying volume (aligned with ML and 50‑EMA confluence)
DZ2: 3300–3310 – A deeper base with strong reversal history; aligns with psychological round number and 0.382 Fib of recent up-swing
3. Key Supply Zones
SZ1: 3350–3360 – Upper resistance cluster formed by repeated spikes and quick rejections; overlapping 0.5–0.618 Fib from the last retracement
SZ2: 3380–3400 – Broader distribution area with past failed breakouts; significant liquidity shelf noted
4. Why These Zones Matter
Demand zones act as value entry areas where institutional and retail buyers absorb selling pressure, usually followed by swift reversals.
Supply zones represent distribution pockets where buy orders face strong pushback, often leading to corrective moves.
5. Bias
✅ Overall Bias – Bullish (4‑hour) thanks to structural trend (HH/HL), price above key previews like 50‑EMA & 20‑EMA, and consistent demand responses. Only a break below 3320 invalidates bullish tilt.
⚡ 1‑Hour Intraday Setups (Aligned with Bullish 4H Bias)
Buy the Dip (Main Entry)
Zone: 3320–3325
Context: Retest of DZ1, tagging the 4H structure and 1H ascending trendline.
Confirmation: Bullish pin bar or long tail candle + volume surge.
Channel Retest Quick‑Entry
Zone: 3330–3335
Context: Price remediates after a clean breakout above the 1‑hour descending channel.
Confirmation: Trendline bounce or bullish engulfing on the first test.
Supply‑Fade (Aggressive)
Zone: 3350–3355
Context: Approach to SZ1—plays the bearish reaction in a bull market context.
Confirmation: Bearish pin bar, upper wick exhaustion, and slim 1H RSI divergence.
📈 Chart Snapshot & Confluences
DZ1 (3320–3330) aligns with the 0.382 Fib and ascending 1‑hour trendline.
Quick-entry zone (3330–3335) sits close to the 1‑hour 50‑EMA, offering dynamic multi‑timeframe confluence.
SZ1 aligns with higher-term fib and previous supply peaks.
📝 Ready Summary
XAU/USD – 4H Structure: Bullish – higher highs & higher lows.
Major Demand Zones: 3320–3330 (primary), 3300–3310 (secondary).
Major Supply Zones: 3350–3360 (hot zone), 3380–3400 (upper resistance).
Bias: Bullish as long as price holds above 3320.
Intraday Trade Zones:
Buy the Dip: 3320–3325 – look for pin‑bar/volume bounce.
Quick Re‑Entry: 3330–3335 – trendline or 50‑EMA test confirmation.
Supply Fade (Aggressive): 3350–3355 – bearish rejection setup.
Pro Tip: Focus on clean price action signals (wicks, engulfings, volume) within entry zones and confirm with multi‑timeframe confluences (Fib, EMA, trendlines).
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Bullish Move From Support
WTI Crude Oil may continue rising from an underlined blue support cluster.
As a confirmation, I see a quick liquidity grab below that and a consequent
bullish imbalance candle on an hourly time frame.
I expect a rise to 66.24
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Hellena | Oil (4H): LONG to 50% lvl Fibo area of 70.00.Colleagues, after a long break, I think it is worth returning to oil forecasts. The situation is stabilizing a bit and now I think that the price is in a strong correction (ABC) at the moment I see wave “B”, which may reach the area of 50% Fibonacci 70 level.
It is possible that wave “A” will continue to develop towards the 62-63 area, but I still hope for an upward movement.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
GOLD → Attempt to buy back the fall. Uncertainty factorFX:XAUUSD is falling within our expectations. After breaking through the trigger-level of 3340, the price fell to the liquidity zone of 3306. There is uncertainty in the market...
Gold is rising after a false break of support at 3300-3306, interrupting a three-day decline amid a weakening dollar and ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Investors are cautious due to the unstable truce between Iran and Israel, while the decline in USD/JPY after the Bank of Japan's statements and the rise in PPI in Japan are further supporting demand for gold. Powell's comments on the need for caution in monetary policy only temporarily strengthened the dollar. Now the market is focused on US housing data and the second day of Powell's speech
Technically, the price may consolidate at 3306-3347 for some time and only then show us (against the backdrop of the fundamental sentiment that has formed) which direction it will then take
Resistance levels: 3347, 3364, 3372
Support levels: 3319, 3307
The market is trying to buy back the decline. Tuesday's daily session closed with a long shadow, indicating interest in this price range. A pullback to 3320-3310 is possible before growth to 3340-3347.
Best regards, R. Linda!
DeGRAM | GOLD dipped below the supply zone📊 Technical Analysis
● Price has broken the inner rising-trend support and is sliding inside a fresh descending channel; the current pull-back is stalling in the 3 350-3 365 supply zone, where the old trend-line and a June distribution block overlap, printing consecutive lower highs.
● The channel’s width and the purple flag just completed project to 3 295 support (May pivot + mid-channel); a close beneath it exposes the outer rail / March swing low around 3 245.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Hawkish Fed comments have pushed 2-yr yields back above 4.8 % and lifted the DXY, while CFTC figures show a third straight week of long liquidation, curbing bullion bids.
✨ Summary
Fade 3 345-3 360; sustained trade under 3 320 targets 3 295 ➜ 3 245. Short bias void on an H1 close above 3 365.
-------------------
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WTI CRUDE OIL USD WEEKLY ANALYSIS Price is reacting from a weekly FVG just below the 50% of a larger range, with some bullish momentum possibly fueled by recent geopolitical tensions.
But price is still within a bearish range acting as resistance, so upside may remain limited unless structure shifts.
A daily bullish OB below the 50% of that range could offer a solid pullback entry if price retraces which is aligning with the broader narrative and upside liquidity. Im having a neutral view of this and leveraging on both sides.
What are your thoughts?
Bearish drop?The Gold (XAU/USD) is rising towards the pivot, which has been identified as an overlap resistance, and could drop to the 1st support, acting as a pullback support.
Pivot: 3,339.40
1st Support: 3,297.74
1st Resistance: 3,389.16
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XAUUSD 1H | Harmonic AB=CD | Sentiment Reversal in PlayGold has formed a clean Harmonic AB=CD Pattern, with price currently sitting at the PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone). This aligns with technical expectations for a possible bullish shift.
🗓️ The recent sharp sell-off in Gold was heavily influenced by the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, triggering fear, panic, and speculative selling. Despite Gold's fundamentally bullish bias as a safe-haven asset, market sentiment overpowered fundamentals in the short term.
🔍 On the 30min LTF, we have a crystal-clear Bullish Divergence on RSI, adding further confluence that downside momentum is weakening, and a corrective reversal may unfold from this area.
Bias:
✅ Harmonic AB=CD complete — PRZ active
✅ LTF Bullish Divergence (30m) confirmed
✅ Price action showing exhaustion at key support
✅ Expecting potential bullish reaction and relief rally
⚠️ As always, waiting for confirmation with proper risk management. Market remains sensitive to geopolitical headlines.
💡 DYOR — Do Your Own Research before executing trades.
GOLD → Declining interest. Retest of supportFX:XAUUSD experienced significant volatility toward the end of the US trading session. This was due to developments in the Middle East. The de-escalation of the situation is leading to a decline in interest in the metal.
The announced ceasefire between Iran and Israel has reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, while falling oil prices have reduced its appeal as a hedge against inflation. Gold is supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut in July. The focus is on Fed Chair Powell's testimony before Congress and further developments in the Middle East.
Technically, the price confirms the local bearish structure. A continued assault on the 3340 support level could trigger a further decline.
Support levels: 3343-3340, 3320
Resistance levels: 3360, 3366
Focus on the trading range (consolidation) 3340 - 3400. De-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East may lead to a decline in interest in gold as a hedge asset, which may cause the price to break down of consolidation. If the retest of 3340 continues, the price will begin to contract before the level, in which case the chances of a breakdown and decline will only increase. The target will be the liquidity zone of 3320 - 3306
Best regards, R. Linda!
GOLD. Daily Timeframe overview with Initiative AnalysisHey traders and investors!
Daily Timeframe
Market phase : sideways. Seller's initiative.
Boundaries marked with black lines.
Gold followed an alternative scenario from the previous review toward 3435. The buyer played out the 8-9 vector of the range on the daily timeframe, and now the initiative has shifted to the seller. The seller's targets are 3245 and 3201 — areas to watch for potential buy patterns aiming for a new ATH. The price might get stuck in the 3293–3271 zone. If a strong buyer reaction occurs, a reversal may happen in this range.
The ideal area to look for buy patterns is around 3201.
Selling is risky.
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA).
Wishing you profitable trades!
GOLD Risky Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
GOLD made a bullish
Rebound but will soon
Hit a wide horizontal
Resistance of around 3,345$
And as we are locally bearish
Biased after the recent rising
Support breakout we will be
Expecting a bearish pullback
And a local move down
Sell!
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Will crude oil prices continue to decline?On Tuesday, oil prices fell by 6%, hitting a two-week low, as market expectations that a ceasefire between Israel and Iran would reduce the risk of supply disruptions in Middle Eastern oil. WTI crude oil fell below $64 per barrel intraday, eventually closing down 3.35% at $64.96 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 3.7% at $67.73 per barrel. With the easing of the Israel-Iran conflict, the trading logic of the crude oil market will return to fundamentals. For now, the consumption peak season has hedged the pressure from OPEC+ production increases. Although U.S. crude oil demand has not shown eye-catching performance, OPEC+ production increases have also fallen short of expectations. In the later stage, attention needs to be paid to the geopolitical situation and the landing of OPEC+ production increases. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, factors such as continued OPEC+ production increases, weak demand, and supply surplus will still dominate oil price movements. The daily chart of crude oil closed with a bearish hammer line, in a two-day bearish pattern. After breaking the high, crude oil fell rapidly, indicating signs of the end of the oil price rally. Today, the focus is on whether the oil price continues to break down.
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GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Jun 23 - Jun 27]This week, after opening at $3,369/oz, OANDA:XAUUSD prices fluctuated within a fairly narrow range, from only $3,340-$3,374/oz, and closed at $3,368/oz. The fact that gold prices closed this week close to the opening price shows that investors are hesitant in the current context.
The reason why gold prices are still fluctuating within a narrow range this week is because US President Donald Trump gave Iran a 2-week deadline to consider negotiating an end to the conflict with Israel, even though the Israel-Iran conflict is still raging.
In addition, on June 12, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5%, while adjusting its forecast for US GDP growth lower and raising its estimate for near-term inflation. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that tariffs would push up prices and weigh on economic activity. Although two rate cuts are expected before the end of the year, Powell said the Fed may wait for more clarity before cutting rates.
Next week, the Fed Chairman will hold two semiannual monetary policy hearings before the US House and Senate committees on Tuesday and Wednesday. If Fed Chairman Powell hints at a rate cut in September 2025, the USD could fall against other major currencies, causing gold prices to rise next week. Conversely, if the Fed Chairman emphasizes that they will continue to prioritize controlling inflation and is in no hurry to cut interest rates, the USD will rise, thereby pushing gold prices down next week.
📌Technically, the gold price on the H4 and D1 charts is stuck between the range of 3295-3450, which is an important support level around 3295, and the resistance level at 3450.
The current price is moving sideways and accumulating in smaller time frames, and the trend has not been clearly defined when it has not broken through the above two resistance levels.
There are two scenarios for gold.
In the long-term framework, if it breaks through the 3450 zone and breaks the trend at the same time, it is expected that the gold price will set a new high.
In the case that the gold price trades below the 3300 round resistance, and at the same time the 3295 support zone is broken, it is easy to form a head and shoulders pattern on the H4 chart.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 3,350 – 3,320 – 3,300USD
Resistance: 3,371 – 3,400 – 3,435 – 3,500USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3412 - 3410⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3416
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3294 - 3296⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3290
XAUUSD Daily Sniper Plan – June 25, 2025👋👋 Hello traders!
Gold is still moving down strongly. Today’s plan is made for traders who want clear and precise levels. Let’s look at the structure, important zones, and where to watch for trades.
1. Higher Timeframe Overview (Daily, H4, H1)
Daily: Price is falling near the 200 EMA around 3323. RSI shows less buying strength. We wait for a clear move.
H4: The trend is down with lower highs at 3418 and lower lows at 3311. RSI is low, showing weak buying. Price is near the 200 EMA.
H1: Small bounce up to 3328–3332 resistance. RSI is weak, so price must break this zone to move higher.
2. Lower Timeframe Details (M30, M15)
M30: EMA5 crossed above EMA21 but price is near resistance at 3328–3332. RSI is neutral.
M15: Price broke a small wedge up but is limited by EMA21 and EMA50. RSI near 58 shows price could be overbought.
3. Key Zones and How to Trade Them
🔻 Sell Zone: 3345 – 3352
Look for signs that price rejects this zone (wicks, bearish candles) before selling.
🟡 Flip / Decision Zone: 3360 – 3380
Do not trade here. This zone will show if trend changes. Wait for clear confirmation.
🟢 Buy Zone: 3300 – 3285
Look for price rejection and strong buying signs before buying here.
🟢 Deep Buy Zone: 3265 – 3272
Only buy here if price goes below 3280 and shows strength.
4. What to Do
Current price is about 3323.
If price goes above 3332, watch the sell zone 3345–3352 for a short trade.
If price drops below 3332, expect a move down to the buy zone 3300–3285.
Do not buy above 3360 without a clear trend change.
Be patient and wait for good signals.
5. Important Levels
Zone Price Range Notes
Sell Zone 3345 – 3352 Best short zone
Flip Zone 3360 – 3380 Wait and watch, no trades
Buy Zone 3300 – 3285 Good buy zone
Deep Buy Zone 3265 – 3272 Last buy chance
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NATGAS SUPPORT AHEAD|LONG|
✅NATGAS is going down now
But a strong support level is ahead at 3.450$
Thus I am expecting a rebound
And a move up towards the target of 3.600$
LONG🚀
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-24 : Post Market UpdateThis post-market update highlights the weakening volume while my primary proprietary modeling system continues to stay BULLISH.
The markets are really quite interesting right now. Weakening volume in this Gapping uptrend, today, suggests traders are not buying into the ceasefire between Iran and Israel.
Additionally, the move in metals suggests a PANIC phase has setup in the US markets.
This type of panic phase typically leads to selling of assets and moving capital into CASH.
I suggest traders continue to prepare for a moderate melt upward trend over the next few days - but be prepared for any potential breakdown (possibly trying to FILL THE GAP).
This market appears to be running on fumes.
While I believe Trump's policies will lead to a stronger bullish price trend over the next few years, these disruptions and the potential for consumers to pull away from spending/economic activity over the second half of 2025 is still very real.
Buckle up.
At this point, hedge your trades, move some capital into CASH and prepare for bigger price volatility as we move into July 2025.
Get some.
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