Back above $3,300, GOLD may remain neutral, tax focusOANDA:XAUUSD reclaimed the psychologically important level of $3,300/ounce last week, but while gold is still receiving some support as a safe haven amid economic and geopolitical risks, its upside momentum may be limited as the market shifts its attention to other commodities.
Gold prices ended last week on a generally bullish note, rising back above $3,300 an ounce after US President Trump unexpectedly announced a series of new trade policies. Spot gold prices rose about 0.5% last week on Friday.
Although the market initially doubted Trump’s self-imposed July 9 deadline, the overall market reaction remained steady and the renewed risk appetite helped the S&P 500 hit a new record high, somewhat undermining gold’s safe-haven appeal. The July deadline has been pushed back to August 1, but the global trade conflict is far from over. Gold has regained support after initial pressure after Trump announced a new trade policy on copper imports, along with a series of news stories about the relationship between Trump and the FED sent to readers throughout the past week.
A sharp rise in copper prices will also add to inflationary pressures, exacerbate economic uncertainty and raise concerns about recession and stagflation. In this context, gold is expected to continue to receive support from potential risks.
In addition to fierce competition in the commodity market, gold may remain fundamentally neutral in the short term, as economic data will support the Fed's neutral monetary policy. The key market focus next week will be the June Consumer Price Index (CPI). The Fed has made it clear that it is in no rush to raise interest rates while inflation risks remain high.
However, traders still need to be cautious and closely monitor the situation surrounding the tariff war initiated by Trump, which will directly affect the price of gold. In case of negative news, the gold price will receive support and vice versa if positive news appears in the market.
Over the weekend, US President Trump once again used the tariff tactic, announcing that he would impose a 30% tax on imports from the EU and Mexico, causing a strong reaction from the international community. This move not only casts a shadow over the relationship between Europe and the United States, as well as between the United States and Mexico, but also adds further uncertainty to the global trade model. EU politicians, businesses and academics were quick to respond, calling for unity to protect their interests, while Mexico stressed the need to maintain national sovereignty and pledged to respond calmly.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold has a 3-day rally, and the upside momentum has reached the important target resistance at the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. Gold's upside momentum is also limited by this Fibonacci retracement level, specifically it has slightly dropped to $3,355/oz.
But overall, gold is still not in a position to form a specific trend, and the indicators and positions are mainly showing the possibility of continuing to accumulate sideways.
For gold to have the conditions for a new bullish cycle, it needs to bring price activity above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, then the target will be around $3,400 in the short term, more than $3,430.
Meanwhile, a pullback, which sees gold sell below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement, would open the door to a bearish cycle, with a target of around $3,246 in the short term, rather than the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement.
RSI hovering around 50 also suggests a hesitant market sentiment, so the short-term bias for gold is neutral.
Along with that, notable positions will also be listed as follows.
Support: $3,350 – $3,310 – $3,300
Resistance: $3,371 – $3,400 – $3,430
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3406 - 3404⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3410
→Take Profit 1 3398
↨
→Take Profit 2 3392
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3340 - 3342⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3336
→Take Profit 1 3348
↨
→Take Profit 2 3354
