Get started

Commodity

Iron ore hits record-low as demand drops By the end of 2022, the price of iron ore is expected to hit their lowest level in three or four years as global demand for the commodity continues to slow down, particularly from China, the world's largest consumer of iron ore. In recent years, China has been cutting down its iron ore demand especially after the government placed restrictions on the industry to reduce carbon emissions. In 2021, the country's iron ore import fell to 1.12 billion tons from 1.17 billion tons in the prior-year period. Expectations for 2022 from the production side are no better with Australia, the world's biggest exporter of iron ore, projecting a 0.6% drop in global steel output to 1.947 billion tons. "Combined with growing global recessionary fears, new COVID-19 outbreaks and weakness in China's housing sector have dampened world steel and iron ore demand in recent months," the Australian government said in its October quarterly report. A Reuters survey in October showed that prices are expected within the $90/ton to $115/ton range by the end of the year. MetalMiner data shows the price in early 2022 were at $160.30/ton at the beginning of Russia's war against Ukraine. The decline comes despite forecasts of growth in the demand for iron ore through to 2026. The global market for iron ore is estimated to reach 2.7 billion metric tons, while production is expected to reach 3.17 billion metric tons. Until definite signs of recovery are observed, maybe it is best to err on the side of caution regarding iron ore prices, especially considering the threats of a recession in Europe and the persisting problems in China's property sector, which could heavily impact on the demand for the key steelmaking ingredient.
SGX:FEF1!
by BlackBull_Markets
As the DXY weakened, look at Gold!Does history repeat itself? It looks like it might, especially in the case of Gold. Having found strong support at the 1617 price level (and DXY weakening significantly) Gold showed a really strong upside move, as the price shot up toward the 1680 price level. This similar price movement happened at the end of September too. With the price bouncing off the 1617 support level and climbing all the way to 1729. Look for the current price to break above 1690 (which is also the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level) to signal a continuation of the upward move, with the 1729 price level and previous swing high, as a target.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JinDao_Tai
1
NGAS: Will Demand for Natural Gas Increase With Climate Change?Natural Gas's all-time price action/chart suggest that it is due for a sizeable, generational bull run, to start within the next 3 years. One could blame it on war or climate change or politics but I am not smart enough to determine which may be the actual cause, if any. I can instead deduct from NGAS' wavemap that we are unlikely to enjoy the low prices we've seen during the early 90s or at late as Spring 2020. I've never looked at an inflation chart or have been able to determine what's next for us in that regard but I think this commodity alone can give us some decent expectations. What happens if/when it costs 20x more to keep your home cool in the summer (or warm in the winter)? With an extended diagonal wave in primary Wave 1 of NGAS, we can expect that primary Wave 3 will be likely extended beyond the 1.618 level. We cannot say that this will occur for sure but it is as likely as it ever is. After finding possible support below $5 in 2024, this commodity could make citizens want to hit the rewind button irl. By 2037-2040, Natural Gas could and should be more than the price of Oil. At this point and time, I genuinely believe that NGAS will go 40X within the next 15 years. This is indication that I've found through continued analysis of price action. I have no reason to doubt this perspective but am well aware that it could be invalidated upon any given day. For continued analysis of this worldwide commodity and help with taking advantage of a possibly upcoming generational swings, come surf with me and the Digital Surf Trading Community.
NLong
by DigitalSurfTrading
2
Dr. Copper: Melt-Up Has BegunMassive daily green candle broke out of 3-month pennant and gaussian channel after bouncing off multiple moving averages, most importantly the 200 week SMA. The move also has the highest volume since March. Long RSI trend has been broken too. Back in July, I called for a bottom and an accumulation phase for copper (See Below). It played out. Price needs to take out the August high to confirm that it's out of accumulation phase, but with such strong momentum, it wouldn't be surprising if price disrespects it on Monday next week.
CAPITALCOM:COPPERLong
by Indotermes
1
Educational Series: Trading with Bollinger Bands (Part 1)Bollinger Bands is a volatility indicator. It indicates how HIGH or LOW prices can move during any period. When the market is volatile, the bands widen; conversely, when the market is less volatile, the bands contract. The standard Bollinger Band indicator comes with a preset calculation of the 2 standard deviations and the 20period moving average. This enables us to use the Bollinger Bands more effectively in the following ways; 1) Bollinger Squeeze 2) Bollinger Reversal (Read about this in Part 2) 3) Bollinger Trend (Read about this in Part 3) What is a Bollinger Squeeze? A Bollinger Squeeze is identified when the bands contract for a medium time, and economic news is to be released on the horizon. It is characterized by a horizontal consolidation of price over a period of time. Typically, the horizontal squeeze can be encompassed within a rectangle (shown on the chart). This indicates the potential for an explosive BIG move as the price breaks out of the consolidation. What do with a Bollinger Squeeze? Because the Bollinger Squeeze occurs before a news event, it would be unwise to pick a side for the potential breakout and gamble on the news result. Therefore, the best way to take advantage of this setup is maximized by deploying pending orders. 1) Place a Buy Stop order slightly above the top of the consolidation area, Stop Loss (SL) should be about 1.5 times the size of the consolidation area, with the Take Profit (TP) at the nearest swing high or 2 times the SL amount. 2) Place a Sell Stop order slightly below the top of the consolidation area, Stop Loss (SL) should be about 1.5 times the size of the consolidation area, with the Take Profit (TP) at the nearest swing high or 2 times the SL amount. Whenever the Buy or Sell trade is activated, you must remember to cancel the other pending order (Or you could try to find a One-Cancel-Other EA) Remember - Breakout of the consolidation should result in a quick and fast price movement. If it breaks and climbs slowly, it could be a false break, and you would want to get out of the trade quickly. - Trend could be ignored briefly (due to the explosive and short term move). But only briefly. - Support and Resistance levels are still crucial and must be respected. - This indicator is effective on Forex, Commodity, Cryptocurrency & Equity markets Use the Bollinger Squeeze only on the M15 or H1 timeframe, and remember, it is a relatively rare occurrence.
Education
by JinDao_Tai
6
GOLD (XAU/USD): bearish perspective. When do we sell?Looking at the 4h-timeframe chart of Gold, the following can be observed: the price is pulling back to re-test the 1658 - 1659 area of previously penetrated support which now serves as a zone of resistance. The same area nicely lines up with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. Once that specific key zone is reached, we are looking into closely monitoring the price action and eyeing possible short positions. The initial target is plotted on the graph. Happy November!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Investroy
21
Trading Psychology (Part 1)A philosophy I engage in when trading the markets - I am not self-employed as a trader. - The market is my boss and my trades are my employees. - I merely manage those employees. Traders often have to think fast and make quick decisions, darting in and out of positions on short notice. To accomplish this, you need a certain presence of mind. You need the discipline to stick with your own trading plans and know when to book profits and losses. Emotions simply can't get in the way. It’s NOT that winning traders formulate better trading strategies It’s NOT that winning traders are smarter It’s NOT that winning traders do better market analysis One personal characteristic that almost all winning traders share is that of self-confidence . Winning traders possess a firm, basic belief in their ability to BE winning traders.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by JinDao_Tai
XAUUSD Outlook (26 October 2022)Gold bounces from the 1620 support level as its price forms a double bottom. Similar to what happened on 28th September, the price bounced from the 1620 support to test the 1660 resistance level, and retraced briefly before breaking higher again. Looking at the current price movement, Gold could climb to test the 1660 resistance level again. And if the price breaks the resistance level, the price could climb higher toward the next resistance of 1690, which is at the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JinDao_Tai
2
Elliott Wave View: Gold Could Shine A Bit In The Next DaysShort term Elliott Wave view on Gold (XAUUSD) continued with bearish momentum from 10.04.2022 high calling for further downside. Decline from 10.04.2022 high is unfolding in 3 waves to complete a double correction. Down from 10.04.2022 high, wave (i) ended at 1700.00 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 1725.78. Then XAUUSD resumes the drop as wave (iii). Internal subdivision has 5 waves in lesser degree. The 60 minutes chart below shows the internal subdivision of wave (iii). Down from wave (ii), wave i ended at 1705.81 and correction in wave ii ended at 1715.00. Down from wave ii, wave iii finished at 1660.32 and wave iv bounce completed at 1683.78. Wave (iii) decline ended at 1639.24 and wave (iv) ended at 1668.45. Final leg lower wave (v) of ((a)) is in progress and it should end soon. We are expecting more low to complete wave (v) and wave ((a)). When the impulse has completed, we look for a with the bounce in 3, 7 or 11 swings higher as wave ((b)) that should fail to resume with the downtrend again. A break of 1668.45 should confirm that gold is already in wave ((b)).
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
Elliott Wave View: Silver Needs More Downside Before a PullbackShort term Elliott Wave view on Silver (XAGUSD) continued with bearish momentum from 10.04.2022 high calling for further downside. Decline from 10.04.2022 high is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse. Down from 10.04.2022 high, wave ((i)) ended at 19.92 and rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 20.87. Then silver resumes the drop as wave ((iii)). Internal subdivision has another 5 waves in lesser degree. The 60 minutes chart below shows the internal subdivision of wave ((iii)). Down from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 20.34 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 20.82. Down from wave (ii), wave (iii) ended at 18.84 and wave (iv) ended at 19.30. Wave ((iii)) decline ended at 18.34 and wave ((iv)) ended at 19.07. Final leg lower wave ((v)) is in progress. We are expecting more downside to break 18.34 low to complete a wave ((v)) and wave 1. When the impulse lower has completed, we should see a bounce in 3, 7 or 11 swings higher. This correction should fail as far as pivot at 21.25 high stays intact.
FX_IDC:XAGUSD
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Are You Seeing What I'm Seeing?Hey trader, I hope you're having a profitable week ;) The price is currently running in the bearish H&S L2 as well as below the 50 and bearish crossed short-term MA's. Usually when the price is in a patterns L2, it drops (or rallies) for the L3 after closing with a reversal candle pattern or breaking and retesting the levels support/resistant. But for that to happen, the short-term MA's must be crossed in direction of the market maker patterns trend. So in this situation, both the pattern and MA's are supporting a bearish trend. But it may not occur. The price will reject the drop after it has bullish broke and retested the 3rd Monthly Key and 8 MA or the first trades stop loss key level. With that said, enter these trades at your own risk! That's it for today. I hope you found value in this article. If you have a different concept in mind, feel free to share it in the comments section, I'd love to know your thoughts! Stay Blessed Baby, Sphatrades.
TVC:USOILShort
by Doji-2k1
Silver & Gold. Long? Short?Remain neutral/bearish on gold & silver until the US10Y, DXY, & Fed Funds Rates tops. This is the first time since the de-pegging of USD/Gold (in 1975) that interest rates & the USD have been rising. This creates an extremely tough environment for gold & silver to significantly rally being under pressure from high dollar & rising interest rates. Despite strong headwinds, there are many tailwinds as well that will lead many commodities prices higher such as, the clean transition, & the dollar (usd) devaluing. Chart: FED FUNDS Rate = Blue Line
TVC:SILVER
by brandonmattis
DBA - Invesco Agriculture Fund Commodities are currently repricing lower due to the looming global slowdown. Meaning, there is more potential downside for commodities However, There are more significant tailwinds that will push commodity prices higher in the longer term. DBA ETF broke out of yearly downtrend in 2020 indicating that higher food prices are in the global outlook for the upcoming years. A pullback is probably overdue but after prices stabilize, we can see the DBA ETF push significantly higher. The first stop is fair value (red line).
AMEX:DBALong
by brandonmattis
Extra Cash For Christmas HolidayHey trader, I hope you having a profitable week. If not, try this: But first, let me explain how these trades will be triggered. If the price bearish bounces off the 4H Half a Bat Neckline, 50 and short-term MA’s with a bullish reversal candle close (1st trade signal), then proceeds to bullish break and retest the (Possible) 4H H&S Neckline (2nd trade signal); according to the 4 Hour: the price would be or have formed a head and shoulde pattern and in prep to rally for its 3-level trend; and according to the daily: the price would be bouncing off the 50 and 8 MA’s - in prep to rally for the double bottoms L1, so once that hapens, then I should BUY → E.1 - E.2 That's it for today. I hope you found value in this article. If you have a different concept in mind, feel free to share it in the comments section (below), I'd love to know your thoughts! Stay Blessed Baby, Sphatrades.
TVC:USOIL
by Doji-2k1
Natural Gas: The supply-demand dynamic is at a critical stageDeutsche Bank reported that in a particularly critical phase is the supply-demand dynamics regarding natural gas towards the winter season, which the behavior of households will be decisive in the coming months, as their consumption represents a large percentage of total consumption. A supply failure is likely to be avoided at least as the scenarios confirm that a 20% YoY reduction in consumption this winter (and flat annual demand thereafter) is likely to lead to some shortages either early in 2023 or the winter of 2023/24. The reduction in Germany remains at 40%, while if demand falls by only 10% YoY stocks will not be exhausted even in such a scenario. For certain, fill levels would fall below 10% in late winter 2022/23, but this would not put energy security in doubt until 2024. The European Commission is working on proposals to limit prices. While negotiating with reliable suppliers, for instance, Norway, and strengthening common markets seem to be the Commission’s preferred options, the idea of ​​a (temporary) price cap on imported natural gas is gaining ground. The greater the potential for the implementation of a cap the lower the success of the implementation of the first two measures. Such an implementation could lead to increase supply risks, depending on the design of such an import price cap which would accompany the mandatory demand reduction. From an Elliot wave perspective, we will examine the Natural Gas chart to see its potential move in the short to mid-term. Looking at the weekly chart, natural gas made an impulsive five-wave rally from the lows, which suggests that low is in place and we can expect a bigger recovery. However, in Elliott waves, after every five-wave rise we can expect a slow down in three waves, so we are tracking now an (A)-(B)-(C) correction before the uptrend resumes. First support is around 5.3 level, while second support would be around 3.5 level. All the best! If you like what we do, then please like and share our idea. Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
NYMEX:NG1!
by ew-forecast
1