Extra Cash For Christmas HolidayHey trader, I hope you having a profitable week. If not, try this:
But first, let me explain how these trades will be triggered. If the price bearish bounces off the 4H Half a Bat Neckline, 50 and short-term MA’s with a bullish reversal candle close (1st trade signal), then proceeds to bullish break and retest the (Possible) 4H H&S Neckline (2nd trade signal); according to the 4 Hour: the price would be or have formed a head and shoulde pattern and in prep to rally for its 3-level trend; and according to the daily: the price would be bouncing off the 50 and 8 MA’s - in prep to rally for the double bottoms L1, so once that hapens, then I should BUY → E.1 - E.2
That's it for today. I hope you found value in this article. If you have a different concept in mind, feel free to share it in the comments section (below), I'd love to know your thoughts!
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Sphatrades.
Commodity
Natural Gas: The supply-demand dynamic is at a critical stageDeutsche Bank reported that in a particularly critical phase is the supply-demand dynamics regarding natural gas towards the winter season, which the behavior of households will be decisive in the coming months, as their consumption represents a large percentage of total consumption. A supply failure is likely to be avoided at least as the scenarios confirm that a 20% YoY reduction in consumption this winter (and flat annual demand thereafter) is likely to lead to some shortages either early in 2023 or the winter of 2023/24.
The reduction in Germany remains at 40%, while if demand falls by only 10% YoY stocks will not be exhausted even in such a scenario. For certain, fill levels would fall below 10% in late winter 2022/23, but this would not put energy security in doubt until 2024. The European Commission is working on proposals to limit prices. While negotiating with reliable suppliers, for instance, Norway, and strengthening common markets seem to be the Commission’s preferred options, the idea of a (temporary) price cap on imported natural gas is gaining ground.
The greater the potential for the implementation of a cap the lower the success of the implementation of the first two measures. Such an implementation could lead to increase supply risks, depending on the design of such an import price cap which would accompany the mandatory demand reduction.
From an Elliot wave perspective, we will examine the Natural Gas chart to see its potential move in the short to mid-term.
Looking at the weekly chart, natural gas made an impulsive five-wave rally from the lows, which suggests that low is in place and we can expect a bigger recovery. However, in Elliott waves, after every five-wave rise we can expect a slow down in three waves, so we are tracking now an (A)-(B)-(C) correction before the uptrend resumes. First support is around 5.3 level, while second support would be around 3.5 level.
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Commodity Wheat idea (05/10/2022)wheat
Completion of wave y of the compound binary wave, and completion of wave b at prices 945 We expect wheat to decline in the coming period after ending the correction pattern as we explained, and we expect a decline as prices are less than the decisive point 945, which is the crucial point. Important, a point for the next period and the beginning of the wave retreat
GOLD SHORT TO 1684You missed out on the Gold bottom & didn't get into buys? Here's your chance to get in on the retracement. I am targeting 1684 on Gold. This here is a HEDGE trade against our buys. A counter trend trade like this is always risky, so use strict risk management & enjoy📈
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DB. commodity index idea (27/09/2022)DB. commodity index
We expect the index to continue declining because prices are below the 27.05 resistance point, and wave (2) has already ended and started falling in waves (3). We expect prices to drop to 1.618% at 22.18, but currently, we expect the correction to continue to 61% at 26.06 to end wave 2 before descending again.
GOLD (XAU/USD): history is repeating itself. Again? Possibly.Taking a look at the 4H timeframe chart, we can witness the beauty of price action. Accumulation+Distribution phases, a massive descending channel and many other details. Mr. Wyckoff was not the only person enjoying this incredible art. Any individual that is a fan of naked trading and of monitoring the price decline/grow gradually, will spot accumulation+distribution phases with ease.
Now, as it can be observed from the graph, not only the two previous "consolidation+dump" scenarios played out perfectly, but they also lead to the development of a third phase. At the moment, we can notice that after the recent dump, the price has pulled back to the area of the previous sideways-moving consolidation box. Here, we are expecting for the price to form a new box and range within the borders of it before making another impulsive move. Considering the current strength of the USD and the recent price development, we strongly believe that the bearish moves will continue for the near future.
GOLD (XAU/USD): detailed breakdown. What is the next step?As it can be clearly observed from the 3H timeframe graph, after breaking out of the ascending channel illustrated on the chart, the price has managed to re-test the area of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and complete the break+retest pattern.
At the moment, the price is trading within the borders of the rectangular range portrayed on the graph. Considering the strength of the USD and the recent price development of GOLD, we are pretty positive that bearish impulses will continue from here on.
With the Stop Loss above the upper barrier of the consolidation box, we are entering short positions and aiming for the bottom of the ocean.