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Gold Up 0.8% Already This Week!Gold is starting the week with a strong move to the upside, which may be its next attempt at the $2000 round number and the all-time high at $2075. It’s still early in the week, so it's too soon to tell if the bullish momentum will continue, so we will have to be patient to find out. Despite this current upwards move, we have to remember that price is in consolidation and has been since August 2020 when price created the all-time high. When price consolidates, we expect to see sideways movement and sudden, unpredictable moves to both the upside and the downside. We are interested in a confirmation of a breakout, not just an initial breakout. As the previous trend was bullish, the bias is for a breakout to the upside. The first breakout will indicate a potential continuation. The second breakout will confirm a trend continuation. Patience until that happens. If you like enjoyed this post, make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, comment below. We reply to every comment! See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:GOLD
by Sublime_Trading
USOIL Potential for Bearish Pressure | 18th April 2022We see a potential for bearish reversal from sell entry level of 104.65 which lines up with 50% Fibonacci retracement towards the take profit level of 97.98 which lines up with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Alternatively, price might rise up to stop loss level of 108.76 which lines up with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
TVC:USOILShort
by Rockqet
USOIL Potential for Bearish Momentum | 14th April 2022Price is on a bearish momentum. We expect a potential for bearish dip from sell entry level of 104.65 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement towards the take profit level of 97.98 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection . Alternatively, if price breaks through the pivot structure, it might rise towards to the stop loss level of 108.76 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection . Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
TVC:USOILShort
by FXCM
1
USOIL Potential for Bearish Momentum | 14th April 2022Price is on a bearish momentum. We expect a potential for bearish dip from sell entry level of 104.65 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement towards the take profit level of 97.98 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Alternatively, if price breaks through the pivot structure, it might rise towards to the stop loss level of 108.76 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
TVC:USOILShort
by Rockqet
GOLD LONG TERMHello everyone, What I see on the chart is a movement from 1780 to 2074 (294$) (old resistance) and its 61% correction to 1890. There are some minor resistance ofc but the main resistance is 1965. If this level breaks what we ganna see is a correction with a double bottom which most likely means a "NEW GOLD HIGH". If gold breaks the 1965, ı will be watching 2040 - 2074 and 2184. 1811 is the support however I dont think we ganna test there. There is really good strong buyer on the 1890 levels.
TVC:GOLDLong
by bruno_iksil
Coffee Futures (KCK2022), H1 Potential for Bearish Dip!Type: Bearish Dip Resistance : 229.45 Pivot: 227.30 Support : 220.80 Preferred case: We see the potential for further bearish continuation from our Pivot at 227.30 in line 78.6% Fibonacci projection towards our 1st support at 220.80 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. Our bearish bias is further supported by stochastic indicator where it is at resistance level. Alternative scenario: Price might move towards the 1st resistance level of 229.45 in line with 100% Fibonacci projection and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Fundamentals: No major news
ICEUS:KCK2022Short
by Genesiv
Cocoa Futures (CCK2022), H1 Bullish BounceType : Bullish Bounce Resistance : 2639 Pivot: 2552 Support : 2500 Preferred Case: Price is near pivot level of 2552 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Price can potentially bounce up to the 1st resistance level of 2639, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection, along with a graphical swing high resistance. Our bullish bias is further supported by stochastic indicator where price is near resistance level. Alternative scenario: Price might continue to drop towards the 1st support level of 2500 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Fundamentals: No Major News
ICEUS:CCK2022Long
by Genesiv
HGK2022 (Copper Futures) | H1 Bullish PressureType : Bullish Pressure Resistance : 4.7730 Pivot: 4.7000 Support : 4.6415 Preferred Case: Price is near pivot level of 4.7000 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially rise up to the 1st resistance level at 4.7730, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator where it is at resistance level. Alternative scenario: Price might also dip towards the 1st support level of 4.6415 in line with a graphical swing low support. Fundamentals: No Major News
COMEX:HGK2022Long
by Genesiv
Decline of the US Dollar Means Commodities Will Continue To RoarThe pound sterling, the United Kingdom’s foreign currency instrument, was the global reserve currency in the 19th century and the first half of the 20th century. For decades, the US dollar has been the world’s reserve currency, which became official in 1944 after a delegation from forty-four allied countries decided that the world’s currencies would no longer be linked to gold but pegged to the US dollar, which was linked to gold. The Bretton Woods Agreement established the authority of central banks to maintain fixed exchange rates between their foreign exchange instruments and the US dollar. In turn, the US would redeem US dollars for gold on demand. The redemption option ended in 1971 when President Richard Nixon announced that the United States would no longer convert dollars to gold at a fixed value. The dollar’s link to commodities Three factors that will continue to weigh on the dollar’s global role Expect higher base prices for commodities Long-term trends are very bullish Buying dips is likely to be the optimal approach For seventy-eight years, since the end of World War II, the US dollar has been the king of the currencies. On December 27, 1945, the participating countries signed the Bretton Woods Agreement. On August 15, 1971, President Nixon abandoned the gold standard. On February 4, 2022, a handshake on a “no-limits” support agreement between Chinese President Xi and Russian President Putin may go down in history as the beginning of the end of the US dollar as the leading world reserve currency. The watershed event could have far-reaching consequences for markets across all asset classes. Commodities are global assets. The end of the dollar’s reign as the monarch of money will likely lift raw material prices in dollar terms in the coming years. The dollar’s link to commodities As the world’s reserve currency, the dollar has been the leading global pricing mechanism for most commodities. Over the past decades, a rising dollar often weighed on commodity prices as the essentials became more expensive in other currency terms. A weak dollar encouraged buying as prices fell in different foreign exchange instruments. While the US is the world’s leading economy, the population at around 333 million is only 4.2% of the total number of people on our planet. Therefore, the dollar’s link to commodities is financially based on the US position in the global financial markets and not on the supply and demand equations for the raw materials. If the dollar’s role in the world declines, its link to commodity prices will diminish. Three factors that will continue to weigh on the dollar’s global role King dollar is facing a challenge in 2022 as world economic and political events threaten its dominance. The US dollar faces at least three issues that continue to erode its purchasing power and role in the global economy: Inflation - The February US CPI and PPI data pointed to the highest inflation in over four decades. The March data will be even worse. The Fed began increasing short-term interest rates but remains far behind the inflationary curve. Rising inflation erodes the US dollar’s purchasing power. Geopolitical tensions - The war in Ukraine and China’s support for Russia has dramatically changed the geopolitical landscape. In the leadup to the expansionary move, Russia reduced its US dollar reserves, increasing holdings in euros and gold. Sanctions on Russia will likely cause China to follow the same course. China is the world’s second-leading economy, and Russia is a leading commodity-producing country. As China and Russia move away from using the US currency as a reserve currency, the dollar’s global role will decline. Geopolitical tensions have accelerated the descent. The decline of fiat currencies - The rise of cryptocurrencies is a sign of the fall of fiat currencies. Cryptos derive value from bids and offers for the currencies in an open and transparent market that transcends borders. Fiat currencies derive value from the full faith and credit in the governments that issue the legal tender. Meanwhile, rising commodity prices signify the decline in the dollar’s purchasing power. The dollar index measures the US currency against other world currencies, but it is a bit of a mirage as when all fiat currencies lose value, it is not apparent. The dollar index measures the US currency against other world reserve currencies, including the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. The most significant weighting, at 57.6%, is against the euro currency. The dollar may be moving higher against the basket of currencies, but that does not mean that all of them, including the dollar, are losing value. Expect higher base prices for commodities The decline of the dollar and all fiat currencies makes purchasing power drop and commodity prices rise. Therefore, a strong dollar index has not weighed on many commodity prices over the past year. The weekly chart shows that the dollar index has rallied, making higher lows and higher highs since early 2021. Over that period, most commodities have risen to multi-year and all-time highs. The strength of the dollar did nothing to restrain increasing raw material prices. Meanwhile, higher US interest rates increase the cost of carrying commodity inventories and boost the US dollar’s value against other currencies. The weekly chart of the US 30-Year Treasury bond futures shows the pattern of lower highs and lower lows, pushing long-term interest rates higher. The bottom line is that a rising dollar and increasing US interest rates have not stopped commodity prices from rallying since early 2021. Higher interest rates, rising inflation, geopolitical turmoil leading to supply chain issues, and sanctions that interfere with many raw materials supply and demand equations mean that production costs are rising. The base prices for raw materials are moving higher. Long-term trends are very bullish Bull markets rarely move in straight lines, and since commodities are highly volatile assets, corrections can be brutal. However, the long-term charts in four leading commodities, copper, crude oil, corn, and gold, display the same bullish patterns. The quarterly chart of COMEX copper futures shows the bullish pattern over the past two decades. The highly political crude oil market displays the path of least resistance of the price is higher. US energy policy and geopolitical turmoil have only exacerbated the upward trajectory of the energy commodity since April 2020. Corn’s price path has been higher, making higher highs and higher lows for decades. Gold’s bull market dates back over two decades. Gold may be the best example of the decline in fiat currency values as it is a hybrid between a commodity and a foreign exchange instrument. Many other commodities display the same long-term trends. The recent strength in the US dollar means that commodity prices in other currencies have followed even more bullish price paths over the past year. Buying dips is likely to be the optimal approach The trend is always your best friend in markets. While short-term and medium-term traders follow technicals that depend on the market’s sentiment, long-term trends are a function of macro and microeconomic factors. The decline of fiat currency values continues to push commodity prices higher. Over the past decades, price corrections have been long-term buying opportunities in the commodities asset class. The economic and geopolitical landscapes point to a continuation of the trend. Buying on price weakness has offered optimal results. Even if the US dollar index continues to rise, it will not mean the currency is strong. The foreign exchange market is a mirage that only measures one fiat currency’s value against another. Commodity prices are the actual value indicator, and the long-term trends reveal that currencies are all losing purchasing power. We remain bullish on commodities. However, the higher the prices, the more vicious the corrections will become. Buying when they look the worse could be the best course of action over the coming months and years. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
CBOT:AW1!Long
by Andy_Hecht