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GOLD - TRIO RETEST!GOLD is overall bearish trading inside the orange channel so we will be looking for Trend-Following sell setups as it approaches the upper orange trendline. The highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the orange trendline, green resistance, and brown trendline retest. What I call "TRIO RETEST" As per my trading style: As GOLD approaches the purple circles, I will be looking for reversal sell setups on lower timeframes (like a double top pattern, trendline break, and so on...) Unless the bulls break above the green zone again, then we will be looking for buy setups on its retest. Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TheSignalyst
46
Detail Price Action Outlook on GOLD & SILVER Hello traders: Let's take a closer look into GOLD and SILVER. As we have seen some strong bearish moves from market opens this week, let's take a look at it from a technical, price action point of view. GOLD From my previous outlook on GOLD: Price indeed made a push down to the swing lows, which could be forming double bottoms. What we need to watch out for on the lower time frames to see if there's bullish reversal price action, followed by continuation correction for the buys. or If price manages to continue to drop lower than the previous swing lows, then expect the price to continue lower to the bottom of the HTF parallel channel structure, before a big reversal up move. SILVER Long Term Outlook on Silver: From my previous short term outlook on Silver: Similar developments like GOLD, we see price does push down to the previous swing lows as well. This is a good area to watch for price development as we could be forming a larger, deeper HTF continuation correction that may be at the bottom of potential reversal area. Alternatively, if price pushes down lower the previous swing lows, but moving in the corrective phase, then we can still expect the bullish reversal up move once correction completes. Any questions, comments or feedback please let me know. :) Thank you Jojo
OANDA:XAUUSD
by jojofang0901
41
Copper Rises to Resistance as Supply-Side Issues Heat UpCopper prices are seeing some upside movement as supply-side issues intensify. Codelco's Andina mine in Chile saw workers go on strike after mediation talks fell through. This adds to labor tensions in the major copper-exporting country, with workers at BHP Group's Escondida mine still negotiating a new contract as a possible walk-off looms. Meanwhile, workers at a JX Nippon Mining & Metals owned mine, also in Chile, went on strike this week. Prices are now at a descending trendline formed off the July swing high after rising off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Moreover, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) looks to be providing a degree of confluent resistance. Breaking above the trendline may open the door for an extension higher.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by Thomaswestw
August Could Be The Start Of A Bumpy Period In MarketsLast week, in an interview on CNBC, legendary trader and investor Stanley Druckenmiller sounded an alarm. He told reporters on the financial news network, “I can’t find any period in history where monetary and fiscal policy were this out of step with the economic circumstances, not one…I will be surprised if we’re not out of the stock market by the end of the year, just because these bubbles can’t last that long.” He went on to say there is a “raging mania in all assets.” Jackson Hole could send ripples across markets like in 2020 The market expects the beginning of tightening The delta variant provides another excuse What does “transitory” really mean? Fasten your seatbelts for a very rocky ride in markets- The dollar and bonds have become risk barometers than the VIX In 2021, cryptocurrencies rose in a parabolic move to record highs. Even though they corrected, prices remain far above last year’s levels. The explosive rallies reflect the decline in the faith in government and central bank control of the money supply. The tidal wave of central bank stimulus and tsunami of government stimulus has weighed on fiat currency’s purchasing power. The stock market has risen to all-time highs because, for many investors, TINA, there is no alternative to stocks. As Leon Cooperman, the ex-Goldman Sachs partner and hedge fund manager, once said, “Buying bonds amounts to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.” Commodity prices are trending higher in a bullish relay race that began at the March and April 2020 lows. Gold reached a record peak in August 2020. Grain and oilseed prices rose to eight-year highs earlier this year. In May, lumber, copper, and palladium reached record peaks. NYMEX crude oil futures recently rose to the highest level since 2014. Natural gas traded to highs above $4 for the first time since the peak winter season in late 2018. The last time natural gas was north of $4 per MMBtu was in 2014. Ethanol moved to its highest price since 2014, and coal to a level not seen since 2008. Last week, coffee futures traded at over the $2.15 level for the first time since 2014 before correcting. Commodities, stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other asset prices are trending higher. Residential real estate is not only a seller’s market, but prices have moved to insane levels in some regions. The bottom line is accommodative monetary and fiscal policies have planted turbocharged inflationary seeds, and markets have responded. Stanley Druckenmiller knows it is not a question of if significant volatility grips markets across all asset classes, but when it occurs. August 2021 could be a very bumpy period in markets as the traditionally volatile fall season is on the horizon. Jackson Hole could send ripples across markets like in 2020 The markets are anxiously awaiting word from the US central bank at its annual August gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Aside from fishing, hiking, and other outdoor activities, the Fed tends to use the offsite experience as an occasion to roll out monetary policy changes. Even though the 2020 summer meeting was virtual, the Fed took the opportunity to introduce a not-so-subtle change in inflation targets, shifting them from 2% to an average of 2%. After the highly inflationary CPI data over the past three months and a slew of other validations that the economic condition is far above the “target,” the Fed’s tone changed. At the recent meetings, the rhetoric became subtly more hawkish than dovish. However, this week, the central bank took a dovish step back as COVID-19’s delta variant is causing infections to rise. The variant could be a convenient reason for the Fed to maintain the accommodative status quo. The market expects the beginning of tightening Recent Fed minutes told markets the central bank debated whether they would begin tapering quantitative easing with mortgage-backed securities or government bonds. When the tapering starts, the Fed Funds rate hikes will eventually follow. The subtle change in the rhetoric increased market expectations that tighter credit is on the horizon. However, the market does not always get what it expects, and the Fed and US Treasury are notorious doves since 2008. The delta variant provides another excuse If the central bank digs deep into the excuse box, which sits next to the toolbox full of accommodative tools, it may come up with the rising number of COVID-19 delta variant cases as justification for the status quo. The powers in Washington DC will not mind as Democrats desperately want to hold onto and even expand the majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate. Liquidity and stimulus continue to prop up the economy, but the flood of the pair comes with a steep price tag. If the Fed decides to delay tapering QE or set a schedule to increase the Fed Funds rate from zero percent, it will only push off the inevitable. The bottom line is that artificially low interest rates and $120 billion each month in debt purchases are transitory policies to stabilize economic conditions. What does “transitory” really mean? The Fed’s mantra in 2021 is “transitory” when describing rising inflationary pressures. After the May CPI data, all the focus turned to lumber prices and skyrocketing home prices. In the wake of the June CPI, bottlenecks in the supply chain causing a semiconductor shortage and lack of supplies of new and used cars were thrust to the center of the excuse stage. Meanwhile, markets have been in an inflationary relay race to the top, with one asset passing the baton to the next. The stock market remains near record highs. Cryptocurrencies exploded, reaching incredible peaks in April and May, which is a direct challenge to the central bank and government control of the money supply. Commodity prices have been a merry-go-round of increasing prices. Real estate levels are out of this world. My wife and I bought a new home in late 2016. This week, smaller houses on our block were selling at over 100% above the price we paid. “Transitory” means temporary, and that a condition will pass. The Fed refused to define its measurement period for the “average 2% inflation rate,” calling it “discretionary.” Uncertainty is growing, and markets appear ready to respond. Fasten your seatbelts for a very rocky ride in markets- The dollar and bonds have become risk barometers than the VIX The price of any asset is always the correct price because it is the level where buyers and sellers meet in a transparent marketplace. The Fed may control short-term interest rates via the Fed Funds rate, but long-term interest rates reflect the market’s perception of credit. Ironically, the bond market has been taking on the Fed since August 2020. In a series of counter-intuitive moves, the US 30-Year Treasury bond futures fell from 183-06 in August 2020 to a low of 153-29 during the final week of March while the Fed purchased an average of $120 billion each month in debt securities. As inflation data began to make the Fed think about tightening over the past few months, the bonds have risen, reaching the most recent high at 167-04 in mid-July. The bond market has been moving contrary to the central bank’s signals with the futures near the highs at just below the 165 level as of July 30. Meanwhile, the dollar index reflects the US currency’s value against other world reserve foreign exchange instruments. Since the euro is the second-leading reserve currency, the dollar index has a 57.6% exposure to the European currency. The dollar index tends to move higher and lower with interest rate differentials. In the wake of last year’s pandemic, the rate gap between the dollar and the euro narrowed substantially. As the weekly chart illustrates, the dollar index fell from its highest level since 2002 at 103.96 in March 2020 to a low of 89.165 in early 2021, a drop of 14.2%, a substantial move for the US dollar. Since May, the index rallied, reaching the 93.195 level in July. The dollar index was at just over the 92 level on July 30. The index fell after the July FOMC meeting when the central bank appeared more dovish than the prior month. The high in March 2020 was a flight to quality during the worst period of asset liquidation caused by the pandemic. The decline came as US rates fell. The latest rally is on the back of the prospects for rising US rates compared to European rates and the potential for volatile markets over the coming weeks and months. The dollar and bond market are likely to reflect volatility better than the VIX index. The VIX reflects implied volatility of put and call options on S&P 500 stocks. Since market participants tend to panic during downside corrections, the VIX rallies when stocks fall. However, the stock market’s rise could be a symptom of inflationary pressures where all asset prices are rising, and that could continue given the tidal wave of central bank liquidity and tsunami of government stimulus. Even if the Fed bites the bullet and tightens credit, the process will be laborious. The central bank does nothing quickly unless it faces an unprecedented event, as we witnessed in 2008 with the financial crisis and 2020 on the back of the pandemic. Going from hawkish to dovish is a short-term affair while reversing course to a tighter approach to credit is done at a snail’s pace, in the interest of “market stability.” Meanwhile, with the 2022 midterm elections on the horizon and a green and progressive agenda in Washington DC, the spending will continue. Government stimulus in the trillions overwhelms any tweaks the Fed may make over the coming months. The price tag for inflationary policies is massive. The market is waiting for the Fed to unwrap its plans at the August Jackson Hole event. The FOMC got a lot more inflation than it bargained for when it boosted its target to an unknown and unmeasurable “discretionary” level last year. Fasten your seatbelts; markets are in for a wild ride over the coming weeks and months. The fall tends to be a volatile time in the stock market. Corrections in 1929, 1987, and 2008 came during the fourth quarter. Follow those trends as they are your only friend. The central bank and government policies may have been friendly for markets since the early 2020 lows but feeding the inflation beast with liquidity and stimulus is like giving bigger fixes to a junkie. According to Stan Druckenmiller, a rude awakening could be on the horizon. I can’t disagree, as all the seeds of financial insanity have begun to bloom. Either raging inflation or raging stagflation would roil the markets, and one of the two conditions seems unavoidable. We could look back at August 2021 as the beginning of an unprecedented and volatile period in markets. Fasten those seatbelts, hedge your bets and investments, and prepare for a head-spinning ride. It is far better to be safe and ready than unprepared and sorry when it comes to your assets. Get free early access to articles using the designated link below. Sign up for the Monday Night Strategy Call using the link provided below. Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
CBOT:ZB1!
by Andy_Hecht
19
Corn Futures Expected to Move Lower Towards 563'4Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in Corn Futures ( ZC1!). Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 2-Hour chart. ZC1! Hit some resistance around the 572’2 price level and is expected to move lower in the short term. This resistance is a lower high on the commodity and is expected to make another leg lower. Technical Indicators ZC1! is currently above its short (25-SMA), medium (75-SMA) and fractal moving averages. This price increase appears to be a counter trend move of an overall decline in the commodity. The RSI was overbought and is now trending lower towards the 50 level. Moreover, the KST is also displaying negative divergence as the indicator had a negative crossover. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go short at market. At the time of publishing ZC1! is trading around 563’4. The short- term target price is observed around the 548’6 price level, towards the medium term SMA. A stop loss is set at 572’2. This produces a risk reward ratio of 1.56.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Ceddy86
Natural Gas Heading Towards 3.20Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in Natural Gas. Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 2-Hour chart. Natural Gas has been in a rangebound or rectangular trading pattern since the end of June and is currently making another move lower towards 3.50 support. The key move will be a breakdown from support which will take the commodity towards 3.20. Technical Indicators Natural Gas is currently below its short (25-SMA), medium (75-SMA) and fractal moving averages and its RSI is trading below 50, heading towards oversold levels. Moreover, the KST is in a bearish move . Recommendation The recommendation will be to go short at market. At the time of publishing Natural Gas is trading around 3.61. The medium-term target price is observed around the 3.2 price level. A stop loss is set at 3.85. This produces a risk reward ratio of 1.77.
NShort
by Ceddy86
$1800 for Gold could be major support$1800 for the gold bugs seems to be a Goldilocks number. Recent support has been tested several times but a break out from the recent downtrend at first looked like a false breakout. If we were to take that swing high on this latest bullish move, the consensus target of $2000 should be easily met, even $2100 is doable. For the likes of a royalty company the fluctuations in the metals is less relevant but a higher precious metal market does bring outside interest back into these assets, so the likes of Vox Royalty will be benefiting from the current appreciation in the yellow metal. They both have shown a swing low buy the dip from mid-June, so some correlation currently on show.
TVC:GOLD
by TH_Analysis
Palladium Hits Strong Resistance! What Next?Since our last post, palladium has made good progress, moving up $90 to meet the resistance from February 2020. Price is at an interesting point, because a clean break above and we should see price move towards the all-time high at $3017. The weekly 50 simple moving average has aided this gradual upwards move. The first break of $2875 was short-lived as price came tumbling down and reentered consolidation in April/May. Price is still in consolidation, and the longer it does so, the bigger the move we can expect in the direction of the breakout. So should we see a breakout to the upside, which is the bias as the prior trend was bullish, we can expect a solid long-term uptrend to unfold. This is why we want to position ourselves to take advantage of any breakouts that may occur. It will require some patience while price sets itself up, but the reward will more than make up for the time sitting on the sidelines. We will continue to follow the journey of this commodity. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:PALLADIUMLong
by Sublime_Trading
ridethepig | Copper for the Yearly Close📌 Copper for the Yearly Close First with an immediate review of the flows. We were tracking for the capitulation low which was our moment to advance... It was a great choice of moment to load the longs. Extending the belief in commodity shortages which have been entering into play all year long. The highs are worth striving for, all factors remain the same with the macro picture still equal. The main cases where this will play an additional note too at China and Australia flows which is something to consider. After clearing our first targets it's time to aim for the 4.5 main impulsive zone. A flyaway break is in play with such a bullish close, which is generally not very common. Of course the last time this happened was in the early 2000's; and we exploded. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
COMEX:HG1!Long
by ridethepig
4
Palladium Ready For A Breakout?Palladium looks set to make another attempt at breaking out of the 16 month period of consolidation, which began in February 2020. A break above the consolidation high at $2875 was made in April this year, but that was short-lived as price returned back into the consolidation zone after being forced down by the $300 round number psychological resistance level. During the sideways market movement, price has still respected the 50 simple moving average, which has acted as support, helping price create higher lows. Last week we had a reversal just around the 50 simple moving average, which was shown in a recent post, and this week price is gaining momentum and heading towards resistance at $2875. If this level is broken then we still have the $3000 round number and the all-time high at $3017 in the way. The long-term movement has been bullish prior to the consolidation period, so the bias is for a break out to the upside. Should we finally have a breakout, then we should see a linear trend unfold as this commodity has trended really well in the past. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:PALLADIUMLong
by Sublime_Trading
Nickel short tradeThanks for viewing, I am not sure how widespread interest in Nickel is, my interest in Nickel is; - It is a valuable metal that is in demand as the world turns towards electrification (Nickel currently has a low proportion of its demand ~3% from batteries and ~70% from steel-making but EVS. Vehicle manufacturers are turning towards much higher proportion of vehicles being EVS and battery manufacturers are turning to higher efficiency batteries with a higher proportion of nickel, - There are therefore, strong fundamental reasons to expect strong long-term demand, - It is possible to buy large volume physical metal and store it in secure locations (you can even take out a low interest loan on a %age of the market value of the metal collateral) like silverbullion.com.sg. - I would like to add physical Nickel into my "all weather portfolio" (so that commodity positions comprise 7.5% of the portfolio - a la Ray Dalio) I am looking for an entry point to buy. If you trade, I put my entry point on a break below the swing low for a 1:1 extension of the previous drop. If my view is correct this would allow wave (B) to complete without making a lower low (than was set in Feb 2016). This would set the scene for a new bull move towards all-time highs. That short trade (stop placed arbitrarily above nearby resistance) could net -27% closing out at $180.93. Actually, I may look into a platform that offers a short contract. If the Feb 2016 low is exceeded, my bullish scenario is off the table. Reasons for a bearish view: - MACD histogram strong down trend, - MACD moving averages looking like crossing over to the downside, - If a wave (B) unfolds to an expected 1:1 extension that will mean an 44% price decline, - Lower buy volume for Iron ore over the past 18 months and signs of exhaustion in the Iron Ore rally - and as so much of nickel demand is from steel-making this would also drag down Nickel, - Nagging suspicions about a generalised property bubble that is in the process of deflating in the west (commercial property down 20-30% in the US in 2020) if it gets underway (massive manipulation will be required to stop the implosion of a huge speculative bubble in residential and commercial property) in China - there could be a huge reduction in steel demand for construction. At the moment I'm not trading, but looking to enter long around the $180 (below $8000/ton) mark. At the moment silverbullion.com.sg is offering just under 4% over spot and similar buy-sell spread. Storage fee are around 1.5% per year at current prices (more as a % basis for smaller 250kg / 550lb amounts). They have 2000kg bags of 99.8% pure Nickel at USD14,986/ton. I would be looking to enter below USD8000/ton and am hoping for a ~40% price drop overall before the next bull market. Of course, I could be wrong, or right but too early, or I may miss the buy-zone for some reason (like lack of funds) even if it unfolds exactly as I have charted it. I am not an affiliate and the link posted isn't an affiliate link. It is just something I discovered in my search for gold and silver bullion non-bank vaults. If anyone knows of a better offering elsewhere - please let me know (I am also interested in low premium / spread bulk copper - not small ingots or coins). Lately, I have been finding Elliot Wave principles very helpful in determining entry-points into commodity, gold and silver, and equity positions. When pessimism prevails people and organisations sell or get liquidated and the bottom normally isn't right at the point that fundamental factors switch from 'sell' to 'buy'. I find EW is helpful for setting entry and exit points - especially in lieu of more concrete information. Protect those funds
DJ:DJCIIKShort
by flyinkiwi10
Gold, Bullish Reversal ImminentGood afternoon ladies and gents, What a week it has been. Lots of beautiful setups all week on many dollar based pairs. Whilst all of that has been going on, I've been sniping entries on Gold in preparation for the reversal that will take place soon. The Monthly & Weekly Orderflow on this pair is Bullish. Despite the sharp drop after FOMC last week, the bias remains intact and as a matter of fact, I have even more conviction in this trade. Technically speaking, Gold should rally as it's extremely undervalued and dropped directly into my Buy Zone where I'm looking for a solid reversal structure on the H4. Although it's not fully formed yet, I have a feeling that when Gold moves, it will be aggressive and it will not be moving in any other direction other than up and until those targets above are yet. Fundamentally speaking, Gold may rally as Inflation is as its all time highs (catalysed by the incredibly high QE rate that took place last year) and CoT reports do point towards this commodity being bullish. Here I give you a potential entry point and stop loss that provides an RR of 1:5/1:6; however, my entries on the lower timeframe provide a superior risk to reward. Let's see what happens. Trade at your own risk & manage your risk effectively should you trade this idea. Until later - AmplaFX
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jiraiya_eth