GOLD, correction time and next destinationAfter FOMC news release yesterday, a massive bearish candle pierced through 1844 level of support, which was previously a level of resistance. Now, it needs some correction and rest. The price is located near an important structural level at the moment. Therefore, we are getting ready to open some long positions and aim for the previously broken area of support, before we can see some further decline in the price.
What do you think, family? Feel free to drop your ideas in the comment section below!
Commodity
USOIL NEXT RESISTANCE IS 80.00US OIL TRYING TO DO BIG ACHIEVEMENTS, REVISITING POST 2008 CRASH LEVELS OF 80.00, I EXPECT OIL TO BREAK THE RESISTANCE AND FLIP IT INTO SUPPORT SO I'M OPENING A LONG POSITION TARGETING 109.00 IN THE UPCOMING YEAR.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, THIS IS ONLY MY IDEA. TRADE RESPONSIBLY.
USDWTI Pullback?Here we're seeing a weak momentum on Crude oil. We may see a pullback to levels marked on the chart for a move higher.
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NASDAQ Fib Levels and more symbols regardlessLet's talk about US Markets first. Dow Jones (daily Buy) is moving in the direction 34574.2 gaining %0.13. NASDAQ (Buy) is 13747.51 points, following its trendline falling % -0.01. Also on the chart, important Fib lines are drawn. S&P 500 (signalling Buy) is 4203.47 high, falling % -0.02.
Silver troy ounce (31.10 gram) 28.125 USD (percentage of 0.4, Buy signaling) and Platinum , 1199.2 USD (1.42 of pct, Neutral) are finding buyers/sellers presently. Ounce palladium 2866.5 USD (%1.5) costs for traders.
Copper 1 pound (0.4535 kg), 4.654 USD (with the percentage of -0.5, Buy) is being traded at the time written. Besides this, XAUUSD, 1902.7 USD (%-0.14, Buy) going along its trendline.
American Dollar index (DXY) 89.886 is pushing itself (%0.06 Buy) on the line again. USDTRY is signalling Neutral along with the price of 8.5105 TRY (%0.0312 ) and Euro TL (signalling Neutral) is currently being traded with 10.40538 TRY (pct 0.02327).
Exchange Istanbul (BIST100) (signalling Neutral) is moving with 1432.04, gaining %0.81. Asian stock markets may tell us more. Shanghai Composite (SSEC) (Buy) is 3624.7137, gaining %0.26. NIKKEI (Buy) is followed by 28814.12, falling % -0.16.
German DAX is at the high of 15567.36, gaining %0.95 (Strong Buy). UK100 index 7080.47 is gaining %0.82 (providing Buy signals).
Gold’s weekly outlook: May 31 – June 04Gold made a 4th consecutive green candle closing above $1900 (weekly close) after a long gap of 27 weeks as the dollar remained weak. The move in the gold was more of a technical push than anything else but the inflation fears and the ongoing pandemic led disturbed fundamentals also helped in the rise. As countries continue to lighten restrictions on back of full vaccinations, it still remains oddly unclear whether the newer variants are skillful enough to bypass the inoculations easily which might pose a larger threat to the exposed population. If one event softens a bit another is ready to take up the lead to keep the uncertainty heightened as now the Wuhan China angle has resurfaced over the origin of the virus which could again mount geopolitical tensions between U.S and China. Thus the world continues to remain in the clutches of uncertainty which makes the yellow metal an easy sought after given its safe haven characteristics. To watch next week – Fed speakers, inflation data, OPEC meet and other important economic data.
On the chart –
Gold finally closed above $1900 for the week after a lengthy wait as the technicals continued to push the price higher. The price has hit a minor resistance area though a small gap up might be enough to overcome it as the major resistance lies still ahead. In a probability, gold might try an inverse head and shoulders pattern if the price fails to take out the resistance at $1960-70 which again if happens is another towering bullish sign. We have 2 scenarios –
1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1921. If this is crossed it can move towards $1945. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1963.
2. Bears remain out of the picture given the trend except scalp trades.
Bullish view – Bulls reclaimed $1900 on closing basis after a gap of 27 weeks on back of a muted dollar. The move was aided by supportive fundamentals arising from fresh geopolitical tensions and continued uncertainty due to the ongoing pandemic which is failing to fade. For bulls it can be seen as a huge victory as $1900 was a big psychological level which was difficult to cross in the recent past, now that it has been taken out on weekly timeframe the confidence of bulls should be at a new high and surging forward might not be that difficult. Only cause of worry is the upcoming resistance area which if taken out can propel the metal higher at a faster pace.
Bearishness still fails to entice.
On larger terms, gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher.
Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1906 for the targets of $1921 and $1945 with a stop loss placed below $1897. Longer term target $1963.
Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets.
Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
Gold’s weekly outlook: May 24-28Gold had another big green week as inflation fears returned back forcing riskier asset classes to reverse some gains. The situation though remains mostly same with virus still rampant in many countries while few others are reopening after vaccinating the population, the element of fear hasn’t faded with the new mutants spreading at a heightened pace which might force countries to rethink over opening too soon. Though the cheer is quite obvious post the long time spent in curbs it might be short lived given what has happened with some other countries after they were fully opened post the end of first wave. The outlook for the economies remain pretty grim as if a part of globe is on the improvement the part is succumbing which is not at all helping the overall recovery and this scenario might stay for some more months which only signifies a sustained bull run for the yellow metal as it remains the safest haven. To watch next week – Fed speakers, earnings and other important economic data.
On the chart –
Gold moved higher with a $58 green candle clearly breaking out of the flag even on a conservative approach doubly confirming the much awaited large flag breakout. The metal now has a defined trajectory which should lead it to new highs given the intensity of the breakout. We have 2 scenarios –
1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1886. If this is crossed it can move towards $1901. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1921.
2. Bearish bets remain void post the large bullish breakout except scalp trades.
Bullish view – Bulls climbed higher post breaking out of the flag as inflation fears aided their run along with the grim situation across the globe due to the pandemic which is still unwilling to rest. For bulls the breakout itself is an exuberance but what lies ahead would be even more cheerful as the breakout is huge and it should result in new highs given the technicals and the fundamental factors aiding the yellow metal.
Bearishness continues to remain off the grid as the trend remains bullish.
On larger terms, gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher.
Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1891 for the targets of $1901 and $1921 with a stop loss placed below $1882. Longer term target $1945.
Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets.
Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
Is it a good time to sell some SugarThe buying spree at 17/05 NY open didn't make the market move very much. Instead, it creates volatility in the Sugar market. Therefore, I believe the Bulls are just not there to defend the market and a breakout should occur soon.
Trailing Stops should be used when the price hits 16.62.
XAUUSD SHORT TO 1570XAUUSD short to 1570 long term as a major correction is needed after a multi year bull run. Also, on its recent bull run, Gold has move up really impulsively without retesting a lot of major zones, in the process creating a lot of imbalance which now needs to be filled. Inefficiency is a sign of weakness in any trend.
From a fundamental perspective, the US10 year Yields rising back to previous highs of 2020, will put pressure on Gold to drop as both assets correlate negatively. Also, with the roll out of vaccines and economies worldwide slowly reopening, the demand for Gold will drop. Waiting on the next big false flag attack by the worlds elite & shadow government, so that I have a reason to start buying Gold again long term!
GOLD Buy or Sell ? Price Action Is Key.
Hello traders:
Lately many have been asking about where GOLD might be going, and the question is always whether to bur or sell now.
From my point of view, there is no need to rush to jump into the position right away.
Let the price comes to you when its ready and execute is going to be more consistent and sustainable.
So lets take a look at the overall price action.
We know the price is in a higher time frame correction, flag/channel structure that has been correcting since August 2020.
The latest price shows us at the top of this HTF correction, and depending on how you would identify structure, looks like price is breaking out now.
As always I talk about don't jump into the trades just because price breaks some trendline, S/R line or other indicators.
Wait for confirmation with a clear breakout, and a lower time frame continuation correction is best.
This would be the first option to look for if it develops into such.
Where as the second option would be to see if price will fail to break higher,
instead have a reversal impulse on the LTF, pushed the price down out of this current ascending channel correction,
then look for bearish continuation down.
Very similar like the previous ascending channel that the price formed.
Overall from a higher time frame perspective and long term outlook, I still would like to see this HTF flag/channel finish correction and leads to the upside.
But we also need to acknowledge the price may or may not be ready now for the upside move,
and we need to adjust and have plan to manage if it doesn't.
As I always say, let the price come to you. Plan your trade, trade your plan.
This is how we can be more consistent, sustainable in trading for long term.
Thank you
Gold’s weekly outlook: May 17-21Gold closed in the green as the technicals continued to propel the price along with a lower dollar. The price was dominated by the inflation fears in the start of the week but it eased away as the economic data suggested a robust recovery which was the reason behind the dip in the dollar and the bonds. The ongoing pandemic continues to ravage the economy as it has forced many countries to shutdown again to battle its deadly second wave which is claiming more lives nearly every day but the economic data speaks completely opposite which is just adding to the uncertainty. Some countries are reopening after vaccinating its population but with the new mutant jumping borders it might create undesired situations again which only adds up to the bullish scenario for the yellow metal. It may look only pessimistic around but the reality is such with uncertainty just going one way up as if not the pandemic the other geopolitical reasons continue to haunt the world without taking a breather which bodes well for the gold as it remains the safest haven. To watch next week – Fed Minutes and other important economic data.
On the chart –
Gold had a mild green bar but a positive one post an important candle which was showcasing the awaited breakout, the bar created is still a tricky one as it cannot be taken as a foolproof to ascertain the accuracy of the breakout but the bounce from the lows does suggest otherwise as in the retest of the flag/consolidation which confirms the breakout. Given the flag/consolidation is finally broken with a confirmation it makes the path of gold very clear. We have 2 scenarios –
1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1857. If this is crossed it can move towards $1875. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1886.
2. Bears remain ousted post the bullish breakout except scalp trades.
Bullish view – Bulls tried to advance higher post the likely flag/consolidation breakout but were grounded briefly as inflation fears overtook though they still managed to end the week with minor gains making a new closing high. The situation only worsened with geopolitical tensions reemerging along with increased fears due to fast spreading of a new variant of the coronavirus which might be able to dodge the vaccine as well. The fundamentals stay deeply in favor of higher prices while technicals have turned ultra bullish post the likely breakout.
Bearishness continues to remain off the table post another bullish breakout.
On larger terms, gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher.
Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1846 for the targets of $1857 and $1875 with a stop loss placed below $1837. Longer term target $1886.
Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets.
Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
Gold Likely to Retrace From 1850.00Gold is clearly starting to develop a new bullish trend; however, this does not preclude the possibility for the emergence of interim corrections along the way.
The price action is currently drawing near to the descending trend line (in purple) and the 200-day MA (in orange). Given the significance of the two as major turning points, the price of gold seems very likely to rebound from 1850.00, thereby initiating a minor correction. This is further supported by the fact that gold managed to break out above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement only today, and the breakout is not yet certain.
A potential dropdown could fall as low as the 23.6% Fibonacci (around 1770.00) before the commodity finds the necessary support.
The long term target for the newly emerging uptrend remains the same - the 61.8% Fibonacci at 1917.50
Gold’s weekly outlook: May 10-14Gold created a large green bar after days of consolidation as the dollar resumed its downtrend. The rise in the price was quite sharp once $1800 was taken out and this was more of a technical burst than fundamentally as the situation across the globe continues to remain grim with new virus strain causing a fresh stir of panic as it has started spreading. The pandemic has heavily impacted the economic growth and it could remain a constant irritant for maybe another year or more as most parts of the world have only faced the second wave and historically such events do not end without a third wave. With economic growth/revival still under a dark cloud it remains quite obvious that the yellow metal should continue to shine given its safe haven characteristics. To watch next week – Fed Speakers, earnings and other important economic data.
On the chart –
Gold finally broke above the psychological level of $1800 with a large weekly green candle which to some extent is showing the start of the long awaited uptrend as it has likely broken the flag/consolidation though it remains to be reconfirmed to fully judge the technical shift. We have 2 scenarios –
1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1839. If this is crossed it can move towards $1857. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1875.
2. Bears likely have lost their last hope due to a possible bullish breakout except scalp trades.
Bullish view – Bulls stormed above $1800 as the dollar resumed its retreat along with a deepening pandemic as the fresh mutant scare further stretches the uncertainty. The bulls not only exploded above $1800 but likely broke the ongoing flag/consolidation which should push yellow metal into another league with a new all time high eyed. If the breakout is confirmed then gold will possess unmatched technical prowess as fundamentals continue to remain highly favorable.
Bearishness continues to remain out of context.
On larger terms, gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher.
Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1840 for the targets of $1857 and $1875 with a stop loss placed below $1833. Longer term target $1886.
Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets.
Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
GOLD - Purple War Zones!GOLD is overall bullish trading inside the red channel so we will be looking for Trend-Following Buy setups as (if) it approaches our lower red trendline. Knowing that GOLD can still trade higher from here, to test the upper red trendline.
Here are the two strong zones where I will be looking for high probability setups:
I call them War Zones, (highlighted in Purple circles)
Zone 1: (1790-1800)
This highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the round number 1800 and lower red trendline. (trend-following setup)
Zone 2: (1850-1860)
This highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the orange trendline and upper red trendline. (over-bought / over-extended area)
As per my trading style:
As GOLD approaches one of the purple circles, I will be looking for reversal buy/sell setups (like a double bottom /top pattern, trendline break, and so on...)
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Gold is about to go high again !After breaking a resistance area, that area became a support for the chart and after that the chart got stuck into a rectangle form range market.
Today it has broken the top of that rectangle and it is probable that it will go high as the width of the rectangle.The best are for long position is on the the top of the rectangle with regarding that an ascending trend line will support our chart to continue its uptrend.But remember that Gold is extremely volatile and news and other fundamental factors can be really effective on Gold's trends. So make sure that you use Stop losses for your trades.