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Elliott Wave Analysis: Natural Gas Looks Clearly BearishHello traders and investors! Today we will talk about Natural gas, its price action from technical point of view and wave structure from Elliott Wave perspective. We have been bearish on Natgas all the time and seems like the downtrend is not finished yet. After a big, higher degree a-b-c corrective movement at the end of 2020, ideally for wave B, Natgas turned down in an impulsive fashion, probably as part of the first leg (i) of a new five-wave cycle within wave C that can push the price back to 2020 lows. Well, after we noticed a nice bearish setup formation with waves (i) and (ii), seems like Natural gas is on the way down within wave "iii" and after recent break below strong daily channel support line, it's actually confirming the bearish trend. Currently we can see another three-wave intraday corrective pullback, ideally in subwave (ii), where support line of a corrective channel may now act as a strong resistance. All that being said, be aware of a bearish continuation in 2021, ideally and probably as part of a new five-wave cycle within wave C of a higher degree wave (V) that can send it back to 2020 lows to complete a bigger weekly ending diagonal pattern. All the best and have a great weekend! If you like what we do, then please like and share our idea! Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by ew-forecast
Gold’s weekly outlook: April 19-23Gold finally had a good move on the upside with gains more than $30 for the week as technicals continue to bloom along with a falling dollar and increased uncertainty due to the ongoing pandemic which is ceaselessly throwing up fresh challenges. The coronavirus mutations are simply messing up the vaccination drives as they seem to dodge through generating paramount fears of a prolonged economic disruption as most likely way to keep the virus from spreading currently boils down to lockdown(s) since people are still failing to understand the gravity of the situation though it might be pretty harsh to blame them only as rising inflation requires even more deeper pockets. On inflationary front, the bonds which had spiked up have come back lower as predicted by the central bodies though it still remains a cause of worry given the rising cost of goods. As global situation continues to remain gloomy it paints a perfect picture for the yellow metal to shine. To watch next week – Earnings, ECB meet and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold made a comforting green bar post retesting the breakout which suggests further continuity of the trend towards the flag/channel top which could be finally broken this time as the global outlook remains grim due to the surge in covid cases worldwide. We have have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1789. If this is crossed it can move towards $1804. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1823. 2. Short bets continue to remain offbeat under such heavy bullishness except scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls continue to ride higher as they created another high higher and closed above the resistance of the consolidation pattern which was broken in the week as fundamentals continue to worsen with covid cases surging along with increased death rates as the coronavirus continues to dodge containment through new mutations which are far more deadly and fast spreading. Technical push is probably at its highest in recent weeks with bullish pattern breakouts suggesting the yellow metal should test the flag/channel top and eventually break it on the upside which will make the metal bullish as never before with new high on the cards. Bearishness continues to remain out of context. On larger terms, gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1782 for the targets of $1789 and $1804 with a stop loss placed below $1772. Longer term target $1823. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
Gold’s weekly outlook: April 12-16Gold had another successful green week where it created a fresh higher high as the falling dollar lent its support apart from the blooming bullish technicals. The week saw the Fed chair reaffirming a strong growth forecast along with allaying fears of rising inflation with terming any increase to be temporary which funneled a rally across asset classes except the dollar which had a negative outing. With technical support only getting stronger, the fundamentals seem to match it as situation across globe gets gloomier with every passing day as the pandemic continues to wreck havoc with the 2nd wave claiming more lives than the first. Economic setbacks loom large with many countries in a state which demands a lockdown to curb the spread and mainly reduce the pressure on the overwhelmed medical facilities as many people are not adhering to any measures which is only worsening the situation. This again is the chapter where the uncertainty continues the climb which is a positive for the yellow metal as it remains the safest bet in such times. To watch next week – Earnings season, Inflation figures, Fed speakers and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold continued to build on the last week’s ultra bullish reversal candle as it added $10 for the week which saw a higher high as well. The close seems to provide another signal for prolonged bullishness as it broke the consolidation in lower timeframes which was successfully retested as well. In an expressive picture, it looks like a cup and handle in formation which if broken would just pile up the bullish cases as the major reversal signal of the double bottom formation got confirmed few days ago with only one large bullish breakout remaining – the flag/consolidation going on since weeks. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1755. If this is crossed it can move towards $1771. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1789. 2. Bearish bets still don’t find any value except scalp trades given the ongoing trend. Bullish view – Bulls had a successful outing as they created a higher high though unable to close at such highs still it remains a cause of celebration since another consolidation breakout has been achieved which affirms bullishness. For bulls, the technicals have come into full support which was missing sometime back while the fundamentals continue to demand higher prices since the pandemic is still at large with its 2nd wave getting uglier and deadlier even after lot of vaccination drives across the globe as the virus continues to mutate forcing countries to adopt lockdowns (even if partial) again as medical facilities remain at overwhelmed state. In simpler terms gold again got a new set of wings to fly. Bearishness remains cornered due to continuous bullish breakouts. On larger terms, gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1746 for the targets of $1755 and $1771 with a stop loss placed below $1737. Longer term target $1789. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
4
Gold’s weekly outlook: April 05-09Gold made a stunning recovery from the lows creating a very bullish candle majorly on back of increased uncertainty due to the raging pandemic. The pandemic led fear is just heightening as more and more countries push for stricter measures to curb the spread of the virus in the ongoing 2nd wave even after milestones getting achieved in vaccination drives. The most terrorizing part is the dislodging of economic recovery as lockdowns are the only solution when people fail to understand the gravity of the situation and this is probably happening due to the irrational thought process that post vaccination the virus would not be of a concern and the life would run like ever before, and this is also the reason behind the rapid spread of the virus in the current wave which is more deadlier given the highest death rate doing rounds nearly daily. For gold its certainly a win win situation given it is the safest haven and the last week’s tremendous technical show adds another level of bullishness to the yellow metal. To watch next week – IMF meeting, Fed minutes, Powell speech and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold made a massive bullish candle as it recovered after hitting the low which also strengthens the bullish case as it created a double bottom which is a major reversal pattern and one which was due for fully confirming the uptrend. This bounce after making double bottom pattern was pretty easy to anticipate as such is the ferocity of major reversal patterns. Probably the low has been confirmed and the journey towards new high has begun which will get fueled further once the gold breaks out of the flag/consolidation. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1740. If this is crossed it can move towards $1755. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1771. 2. Bears got a chance only to get deceived again as gold created a major bullish reversal pattern excepting the evergreen scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls had another victory as the low got retested and the pattern of double bottom affirmed the trend further. The week had a nasty start with the bulls having a tough time protecting the supports but once they were able to defend the low which was crucial to remain in the game there was no looking back for the price as it recovered sharply to close in the green which in turn created a super bullish weekly candle. Fundamentals remain supportive for gold since the pandemic began and now technicals too have turned exceptionally bullish after the double bottom pattern which should now allow the yellow metal to break free of the flag/consolidation on the upside which it is in since weeks. Bearishness fails to garner any attention again. On larger terms, gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1735 for the targets of $1740 and $1755 with a stop loss placed below $1725. Longer term target $1771. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
USD CAD (Dollar Loonie) Here on the loonie we have a potiental shark pattern or 5-0 pattern setting up. it is either a bullish 5-0 pattern or bearish shark pattern. We are hoping to see price hit the horizontal yellow line and move down; however, there is a major resistance level just a few pips above the pattern. So, i expect to see PA move a bit into the resistance area and get rejected. i will want to see some type of confluence on the oscillators too, along with some structural pattern. Sorry for not going into it any deeper I am behind on some school work and I am also getting back into the 4H time frame trading gonna slowly get down to the 1H again. I am also in the process in making a few courses as well that covers harmonic trading along with a myriad of other topics. When the courses go live i will upgrade my TradingView package to Premium and advertise them on my TradingView.
Short
by ARegularGuy
Gold’s weekly outlook: Mar 29–April 02Gold had a negative outing after 2 weeks of upside from the lows as the rise in dollar likely prevented gains for the yellow metal. Other than the dollar connection its hard to point towards any other factor since the globe is in similar situation as it was a year ago with virus cases and fatalities on the rise in-spite of large scale scale vaccination drives opted by the countries. In simple words many countries are now grappling with the 2nd wave and some who are going through it already are fearing a deadlier 3rd wave which by all means seems to fit as historically seen such pandemics haunt around for 3 or more waves. Another unseen crisis troubled the world last week as the important trading route of Suez canal got blocked by an extra large cargo ship halting/delaying the smooth trade though it may not be of a major concern. With the major issue of the pandemic still showing no signs of cooling, the economic impact of it will only worsen further as job cuts are back on the cards so are stricter measures and lockdown(s) which could fuel the yellow metal to the highs again as the demand for safe haven is bound to increase in the given circumstances. To watch next week – Important economic data. On the chart – Gold had a red candle following 2 green ones as rising dollar limited the gains plus the down move can be attributed to a simple retest of the smaller channel/flag breakout as well. Technicals out-rightly sound bullish given the breakout in smaller time-frame plus the ongoing bigger channel movement on the upside/top as the bottom has been hit already. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1740. If this is crossed it can move towards $1755. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1771. 2. Bears continue to find themselves isolated as another bullish breakout thwarts the shorts except the scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls had another victory even in the red week as they were able to breakout of a smaller channel/flag in lower time-frames. The situation across the globe certainly pushes for the bullish case as well given the mounting uncertainty arising from the ongoing pandemic which is not willing to even take a break rather it has fueled even more fears of a deadlier 3rd wave as vaccines are not helping much against the new variants. Coming to the technicals, another bullish breakout confirms the ongoing trend which should lead the price to the top of the channel/flag if not break it finally. Bearishness continues to remain off the table post another bullish breakout. On larger terms, gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1737 for the targets of $1740 and $1755 with a stop loss placed below $1728. Longer term target $1771. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
Gold’s weekly outlook: Mar 22-26Gold continued its upward momentum as it made another conclusive green candle majorly on back of technicals aided by a rise in uncertainty due to the pandemic’s wrath as it forced more countries to take stricter measures to curb the spread. The pandemic has been the talking point for more than a year and is still going strong in-spite of various vaccination drives as it continues to wreck havoc by destabilizing the economic activities as more and more countries are vouching for lockdown(s) to prevent the 2nd wave from reaching the peak but historically such pandemics have 3 or more waves before they get normalized/neutralized. In such a condition where the uncertainty is a cause of immense worry be it the virus or the inflation fears gold remains the best and the safest asset class due to its characteristics. To watch next week – Powell and Yellen testimony, BIS summit and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold made another green candle closing above $1740 mainly on technical grounds as dollar and yields remained elevated. The forward movement confirms the trajectory of the price which should hit the channel/flag top if not finally breaking through it. Gold has been flagging since past many weeks and given the current global situation it might finally break the flag pattern on the upside. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1755. If this is crossed it can move towards $1771. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1789. 2. Bearish bets still don’t find any value except scalp trades given the ongoing trend. Bullish view – Bulls had another decent outing as they continue to move towards the flag/channel top. The up-move was mainly credited to the technicals but dire fundamentals also aided as the pandemic refuses to die down rather the 2nd wave sweeping the globe seems stronger than the first as the mass vaccinations are also not helping much forcing countries to revisit lockdown(s) and other strict measures which would definitely dampen the economic recovery/growth if not pausing it. The momentum sides with the bulls and for the price action to remain in the uptrend bulls need to defend the supports and the mainly the low created. Bearishness continues to remain out of context. On larger terms, gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1746 for the targets of $1755 and $1771 with a stop loss placed below $1735. Longer term target $1789. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
Gold’s weekly outlook: Mar 15-19Gold finally had a good week where it closed above the $1700 comfortably after testing the lows of the channel/flag which to a great extent suggests a near term bottom if not a reversal. A lower dollar contributed to the rise though higher yields remain a botheration as inflation fears still loom around while this co-relation of the inflation with higher dollar and a lower gold might not work all the time given the other fundamentals issues sweeping the globe again as in the rising covid cases with increased death rate which could hinder economic recovery as most countries are reimposing strict measures and lockdowns to curb the spread. The virus is almost mirroring the last year when it started to multiply even after various vaccination drives which raises confidence issues over the efficacy of the vaccines while fresh side effects complicate the matter even more. The current situation does act as a perfect recipe for higher gold price as fears of an extended economic uncertainty/disruption looms again given the spiraling virus cases world wide. To watch next week – U.S Fed meet, Bank of England and Bank of Japan policy meet, earnings and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold had a successful green week after 3 red candles quietly suggesting a near term bottom formation as the price bounced from the lows of the channel/flag which itself oozes bullishness. This reversal is more of a text book compared to the present volatility(false breaks) seen across asset classes as the move was widely expected given its simplicity/ease to chart. The flag low has been tested and the price is now expected to test the top or even finally break the flag on the upside altogether. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1727. If this is crossed it can move towards $1740. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1755. 2. Bears failed again missing the opportunity to change the trend in their favor as the flag/channel remains intact except the evergreen scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls breathed a sigh of relief as the price reversed after hitting the flag/channel bottom which although was widely expected. Bulls not only did manage to protect the flag but they surged higher above the $1700 comfortably even on back of higher yields as technicals played its part along with the worsening fundamentals as covid cases are on the rise again with increased death rate forcing many countries to reimpose stricter measures and lockdowns to contain the spread. For now the technicals have turned bullish with price expected to be on the uptrend till the flag/channel low holds. Bearishness yet again failed to grab any attention as the flag/channel remains intact. On larger terms, gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1731 for the targets of $1740 and $1755 with a stop loss placed below $1721. Longer term target $1771. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
Gold’s weekly outlook: Mar 08-12Gold had another red week with $1700 also getting breached on closing basis as dollar continued to pile on gains due to inflation fears/rising yields but the move was highly predictable with the low almost touching the channel/flag bottom. Yet again the stimulus news as in the senate passing the stimulus bill came out in the weekend which should kind of repeat last week’s moves with gold expected to gap up along with equities as this development should prompt the dollar to reverse gears back to the downside again though the finale (the bill becoming the law) is expected before 14th March which should keep the related asset classes volatile. The pandemic related uncertainty remains at highs as the cases across the globe are on the rising trend along with increased death rate even after the rollout of vaccines which definitely is a concerning issue as it continues to impact economic recovery/growth. In such a scenario where the uncertainty still looms gold remains the safest haven amongst all asset classes. To watch next week – Stimulus, ECB meeting, inflation figures and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold had a poor outing again where it failed to stay above the $1700 mark broadly due to an increased dollar though the path was highly predictable since it remains in the channel/flag. The bottom of the flag/channel is likely hit or might get retested again which should prompt a notorious reversal since the price movement happening in yellow metal is largely technical in nature given the current downside is not at all fundamentally supported. The flag remains intact with a high possibility of a reversal if the low stays put else it might travel a bit more inside the flag on the downside as well though the stimulus bill getting signed and becoming the law should be enough for providing the push for a reversal if not happened till yet. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1716. If this is crossed it can move towards $1727. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1740. 2. Bears remained in action again as the price continued to decline but they were unable to break the flag which keeps the scalps active only and not positional. Bullish view – Bulls lost $1700 as well but the move was highly predictable as the price bounced from the channel/flag low keeping the bullish trend alive. The bulls have another weekend on their name as the stimulus closes in to become the law which should not augur well for dollar and like last week provide the push to the yellow metal through a gap up. For bulls to stay in the driving seat they need to defend the channel/flag from getting broken. Bearishness remains on the sidelines as the bullish pattern stays intact. On larger terms, gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1705 for the targets of $1716 and $1727 with a stop loss placed below $1695. Longer term target $1740. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
E2M - ASX Gold/CopperRule of thumb is gaps get generally get filled, looking to take some profits off the table at the yellow trend line then ride the rest. RSI poised for a break out with Bullish divergence. I believe commodities are pretty close to breaking out and i don't mind this for a near term trade, there is still a chance for more downside action but long term PMs will rise significantly. E2M has more drill results inbound so hopefully they can produce some numbers to help along the trade. (Not financial advice- DYOR )
ELong
by DylanWikki