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Commodity

Gold’s weekly outlook: Feb 08-12Gold made another attempt to break through the resistance of $1875 but yet again failed as a volatile dollar denied such a move. Another probable reason behind gold’s limited upside at the moment could be the risk on mood across asset classes which is due to the extensive liquidity in the system and also due to the fact a large stimulus is in the offing as promised by the Biden administration. Cutting to the reality, the vaccines and other measures are seen to be fruitful to an extent but it hasn’t brought the economy back to normal or near normal and in such a scenario all these rallies in risk on assets might be short lived or at a point it(risk on) will propel gold along with it given the importance of gold either as a hedge or safe haven or backup for the currency printed which has been one of the main reasons behind the strength of the rally in the prices till now. Coming to the ongoing pandemic and its effects, still newer variations/mutations are being feared which may be more deadlier than the ones found recently, it certainly provokes a deep sense of uncertainty and fear as the current situation of virus in the world is nearly mirroring last year which turned out to be disastrous for all. It might not be ideal to point fingers at any rallies risk on or risk off as the major driver is the massive liquidity injected by the central banks across the globe and the recent movements in financial instruments should be seen as the new normal way of trading/investing in the markets. To watch next week – Earnings, stimulus and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold had an unimpressive week where it fell below $1800 after a gap of 65 days though the move was short lived as it closed fairly higher at the end of the week. This move might not be surprising once the failed daily breakout was noticed as the next best and sustained pattern formation ideally would be a double bottom sorts which is one of the most impactful and foolproof reversal patterns and currently it looks like in the making. Again even after a move below $1800 and a constant failure to break above the $1875 mark gold remains a buy on dips as the chart remains bullish along with dollar in a bear grip which should keep the gold afloat. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1823. If this is crossed it can move towards $1839. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1857. 2. Bears have a chance again to change the trend in their favor by invalidating any possible bullish patterns and the always available scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls look a bit exhausted as they were unable to protect the breach of the $1800 even if it was for a very short time. Though still they look strong compared to the bears as the double bottom pattern looks quite imaginable given the fundamentals the world is reeling in due to the ongoing pandemic and other geopolitical issues. For bulls it is very important to protect the lows and till it is safe the metal can rise back to new highs. Bearishness could only prevail if all possible bullish patterns gets invalidated. On larger terms, gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1824 for the targets of $1839 and $1857 with a stop loss placed below $1812. Longer term target $1875. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
Maybe it is not too late to get some BREAD !!CBOT Wheat is range bouncing! WHAT NEXT? My current view remained neutral with wheat being in a range of 632 - 670. However, wheat could develop a bullish move on Monday and early Tuesday due to USDA Supply and Demand report later Tuesday. Wheat is overall bullish trading in this range, so we should be looking for Trend-Following Buy setups as it approaches our lower orange demand zone at 625 - 632. So the highlighted green zone is still a very strong area even though it is tested a coupled of times. I strongly believed that this is where smart money a.k.a institutional traders stops hunt and they are looking forward to make the market move higher. As per my trading style: I already have a couple of positions open at 626 and 630 with stop losses somewhat at 615. Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! ~ Tuan Anh Commo
CBOT:ZW1!
by TheCommoTrader
Dead wrong on Oil, but what now?Obviously my previous predictions on Oil were wrong, however, it is hard to forecast a vicious virus from the far East. Now, the doomsdayers are back, touting their long bond positions with gold, saying "I told you so." Those positions have worked, and oil has tanked. To be clear, I don't dislike bonds or gold here, but Oil is ripe for a rebound. We are deeply oversold, indeed, I believe this sell-off is far overdone. From a pure technical perspective, the RSI is now turning, and MACD looks to be bottoming out. We should retest the ~60 level again, as this was the previous range bound channel crude was trading in. If 50 is broken, this thesis is invalidated and I am dead wrong. We will see.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by MT-Macro
Gold’s weekly outlook: Jan 25-29Gold again bounced back from the support and this move was broadly attributed to 2 things with the first being a continued fall in dollar and other being the uncertainty caused by the ongoing deadly pandemic. Last week’s important event of presidential transition was pretty uneventful in terms of the concerns it was roping in from days also failed to destabilize the gold as the focus shifted to an extra large stimulus on offing which in turn played the catalyst in the decline of dollar. Virus led fear might not reflect in current financial market as moreover everything is at or near to highs which can be another reason behind the lackluster movement in gold which should in actual terms fly given its safe haven nature since the situation post vaccination drive is not yet looking consoling as newer deadlier strains are raising questions regarding the effectiveness of current vaccines. And about the other geopolitical fundamentals, even they seem to never cease creating uncertainty. Things across the globe are looking equally gloomy as it was just a year back when the virus had started spreading and such similarity is due to moreorless exact copy of the spread by newer strains. In such a scenario gold remains the best investment asset class. To watch next week – Earnings, Fed meet, World Economic forum and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold made a dash towards the top of the flag again on lower dollar and added uncertainty but failed to break. This may look like a negative sign but again the pattern of inverse head and shoulders remains intact and in formation given the movement of the last week keeping the bullish trend alive. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1857. If this is crossed it can move towards $1875. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1886. 2. Bears tried hard again to push the price lower but failed suggesting the ongoing trend except scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls made another attempt to break out of the flag on back of a falling dollar and rise in uncertainty but failed to do so. The move should be seen as not a negative one but a positive as the ongoing pattern formation of inverse head and shoulders remains intact which in itself is a bullish conveyor other than very disturbing fundamentals/event which has been ongoing since a year. With both technical and fundamentals in favor of bulls they might not be kept inside the flag for a longer duration and once the flag breaks with a solid confirmation then it will be no looking back. Bearishness continues to remain out of context. On larger terms, gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1858 for the targets of $1875 and $1886 with a stop loss placed below $1848. Longer term target $1901. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
Gold’s weekly outlook: Jan 11-15Gold had a wild week where it swung little more than $130 after gaping up on the first day. This unprecedented spin off post the breakout in daily timeframe can mostly be attributed to a sudden risk on attitude in the financial market which is clearly visible through bonds. Again fundamentally nothing absolutely nothing budged apart from an unexpected smooth transition of U.S presidency as Donald Trump vowed to provide so which was a question mark till it was announced. Infact more of negativity got collected in the past week mainly arising due to events (breach of U.S Capitol building by Trump supporters) connected with the outgoing president Donald Trump only which now has snowballed into another first in history types where again cries of impeachment has gone loud. This has raised the bar of uncertainty which does not seem to die down as after a brief positive development a larger negative one keeps the hands always full. Gold remains the best asset class in these times as developments are becoming extra sudden with the pandemic still continuing to wreck havoc as world now has to put a fight against the new strain which is spreading like the coronavirus did in its early days. To watch next week – Fed chair Jerome Powell speech, earnings, stimulus hopes, political developments and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold erupted higher as it broke through the consolidation via a gap up but failed to cling on above the breakout though the charts now are a bit confusing as it did actually break the flag but at the end of the week it settled much deeper back in the zone. This might be seen as a failed breakout attempt in weekly timeframe but likely a distorted breakout in daily as the pattern of inverse head and shoulders looks to be in formation which still keeps the trend bullish. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1857. If this is crossed it can move towards $1875. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1886. 2. Bears tried to find themselves once again as the weekly breakout got negated but still they need to do a lot to change trend in their favor except scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls surpassed a major hurdle of breaking the consolidation with a good gap up but failed to build on it. They rather got messed up in the charts as weekly shows a failed attempt while daily depicts another chance to surge higher. The aspects favoring them hasn’t changed as fundamentals remain highly supportive while technical(s) have become somewhat less bullish due to last week’s unstable move. Bearishness still fails to entice. On larger terms, gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1858 for the targets of $1875 and $1886 with a stop loss placed below $1848. Longer term target $1901. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
Bearish Gold Getting Ready for a $1900 RETESTIn this technical analysis I share my current views on XAU/USD (Gold) with half a day left before the market closes. I tried to make the chart as self explanatory as possible, but feel free to reach out or drop a comment if you have any questions. This chart follows the same logic as my previous idea, which played out very well. I pride myself with having given the advice to NOT take the call and enter, as in real life you can't always take all of the trades. Make sure you wait for the right opportunity. -Trading-Guru
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Trading-Guru
8
Gold’s weekly outlook: Jan 04-08Gold ended 2020 on a strong note having a green week closing just shy of $1900 broadly on heightened uncertainty and a down-trending dollar. The current situation of the world remains conducive of higher gold price as the pandemic is still not showing any signs of weakening even after 10 months which spills over as a grave problem point in the 2021 as well even after multiple vaccine rollout(s), and such is the ferocity that most countries are experiencing a deadly 2nd wave which has forced them to again invoke strict restrictions and even partial to full lockdown(s) in badly affected areas which would not only impact the already battered economies but again stretch the disparity which would be impossible to heal. Not only this but geopolitical activities too continue to fuel uncertainty as well. With U.S presidency to change from 21st Jan, it will likely bring more confusion due to the President Elect’s mandate which seems to be directly opposite to Donald Trump’s actions. All this chaos would likely not be sorted that easily even if more than half of the world is vaccinated at a pretty brisk rate with gold staying as the best investment asset class given its safe haven nature for a much longer time. To watch next week – Opec meeting and other important economic activities. On the chart – Gold made a closing high again testing the flag/channel top and ending just below it. A mere push would force the gold out of its 22 week consolidation and such can be achieved with a gap up which is generally the case with such large consolidation breakouts. All the levers (technically and fundamentally) look set for the breakout and once it is achieved then the bull run will get a new set of wings and it would definitely move towards a new high in lesser time than expected. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1901. If this is crossed it can move towards $1921. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1945. 2. Bears will have no chance once the flag/consolidation breaks on the upside except scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls tried again to capture $1900s but failed to do so as the flag resistance still remains a substantial hurdle which would be easy to conquer with a gap up and it is becoming the most likely scenario as gold ended extremely close to the top of the channel/flag. Fundamentals play their part in supporting higher gold price as the pandemic created situation(s) is only worsening even after vaccine rollout and it doesn’t look to sober down any time soon as the second wave is proving more deadly than expected. With a massive breakout in sight and ailing fundamentals bulls have their feet in the runner’s shoes. Bearishness continues to remain out of context. On larger terms, gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1902 for the targets of $1921 and $1945 with a stop loss placed below $1893. Longer term target $1963. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator