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Commodity

Gold going funkyIt has been a while since Gold was looked into... From previous analyses, Gold is indeed bearish of late, and revisited 1800 again, only to break down and closed the week below 1800. Furthermore, the last week closed below the 55EMA. This has not happened in a very long time, and may represent opportunities. Technically, Gold is still bearish. Noted the RPM indication that a consolidation bottom may form soon. This is corroborated with MACD possibly forming a bullish divergence. Meanwhile, there may be a flash crash of sorts to 1600 or at minimum to 1700 instead, in the weeks to come. Clearly, being patient is key, drawing lines, and watching while preparing for the next up wave starts now.
COMEX:GC1!
by Auguraltrader
Gold’s weekly outlook: Feb 15-19Gold had a small green week mainly owing to a negative movement in dollar and a dull risk on activity along with the broader aspect of safe haven buying due to continued uncertainty caused by the ongoing pandemic which is still unleashing its wrath in many parts of the globe. It does seem the world is awaiting a trigger to get a more directive approach though the trend looks to be already set in place its just that the fuel is on the lower side, and the most awaited trigger could be the extra large stimulus which would offer ample push in the direction. Else the fundamentals remain the same with no notable difference as events come and go but the level of uncertainty refuses to die down. To watch next week – Stimulus, earnings and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold made a pin bar or a reversal candle which would be validated on the next open though there may still be some room for a pull back as the double bottom pattern is yet not convincingly printed. Technically, gold remains a buy on dips since it remains in consolidation until a clear direction is achieved. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1839. If this is crossed it can move towards $1857. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1875. 2. Bears still have a chance to change the trend in their favor if they invalidate all possible bullish patterns and the always available scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls tried again to surge higher as they were successful in defending $1800 but were denied again as the consolidation continues in the yellow metal. The candle formed shows early signs of reversal which to a certain extent increases the belief in bullish bets even if the full reversal pattern hasn’t formed as yet. Fundamentally, bulls remain buoyed as the current situations are not showing any signs of stability and if one thing gets resolved another remains ready to fill up the empty space in the uncertainty bar. For bulls to remain in the game they need to prevent the invalidation(s) of bullish patterns formed or in formation. Bearishness still has an outside chance if bullish patterns are denied to be formed. On larger terms, gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1828 for the targets of $1839 and $1857 with a stop loss placed below $1817. Longer term target $1875. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
COCOA is tapping on the resistance of recent trading rangeNIB (cocoa ETN) is pushing against the top of the trading range. Cocoa has been consolidating for around two month now. Since I am long term bullish on agricultural commodities such as cocoa, if/when the top of the range is taken out, I expect quick run up as most of these commodities tend to have unidirectional run. First target is $32.80 range and next is the yellow down trend line. When and if that trend line is taken, I expect bigger upward move. Have a good trade everyone, T.
NLong
by TK0421
Gold’s weekly outlook: Feb 08-12Gold made another attempt to break through the resistance of $1875 but yet again failed as a volatile dollar denied such a move. Another probable reason behind gold’s limited upside at the moment could be the risk on mood across asset classes which is due to the extensive liquidity in the system and also due to the fact a large stimulus is in the offing as promised by the Biden administration. Cutting to the reality, the vaccines and other measures are seen to be fruitful to an extent but it hasn’t brought the economy back to normal or near normal and in such a scenario all these rallies in risk on assets might be short lived or at a point it(risk on) will propel gold along with it given the importance of gold either as a hedge or safe haven or backup for the currency printed which has been one of the main reasons behind the strength of the rally in the prices till now. Coming to the ongoing pandemic and its effects, still newer variations/mutations are being feared which may be more deadlier than the ones found recently, it certainly provokes a deep sense of uncertainty and fear as the current situation of virus in the world is nearly mirroring last year which turned out to be disastrous for all. It might not be ideal to point fingers at any rallies risk on or risk off as the major driver is the massive liquidity injected by the central banks across the globe and the recent movements in financial instruments should be seen as the new normal way of trading/investing in the markets. To watch next week – Earnings, stimulus and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold had an unimpressive week where it fell below $1800 after a gap of 65 days though the move was short lived as it closed fairly higher at the end of the week. This move might not be surprising once the failed daily breakout was noticed as the next best and sustained pattern formation ideally would be a double bottom sorts which is one of the most impactful and foolproof reversal patterns and currently it looks like in the making. Again even after a move below $1800 and a constant failure to break above the $1875 mark gold remains a buy on dips as the chart remains bullish along with dollar in a bear grip which should keep the gold afloat. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1823. If this is crossed it can move towards $1839. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1857. 2. Bears have a chance again to change the trend in their favor by invalidating any possible bullish patterns and the always available scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls look a bit exhausted as they were unable to protect the breach of the $1800 even if it was for a very short time. Though still they look strong compared to the bears as the double bottom pattern looks quite imaginable given the fundamentals the world is reeling in due to the ongoing pandemic and other geopolitical issues. For bulls it is very important to protect the lows and till it is safe the metal can rise back to new highs. Bearishness could only prevail if all possible bullish patterns gets invalidated. On larger terms, gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1824 for the targets of $1839 and $1857 with a stop loss placed below $1812. Longer term target $1875. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator
Maybe it is not too late to get some BREAD !!CBOT Wheat is range bouncing! WHAT NEXT? My current view remained neutral with wheat being in a range of 632 - 670. However, wheat could develop a bullish move on Monday and early Tuesday due to USDA Supply and Demand report later Tuesday. Wheat is overall bullish trading in this range, so we should be looking for Trend-Following Buy setups as it approaches our lower orange demand zone at 625 - 632. So the highlighted green zone is still a very strong area even though it is tested a coupled of times. I strongly believed that this is where smart money a.k.a institutional traders stops hunt and they are looking forward to make the market move higher. As per my trading style: I already have a couple of positions open at 626 and 630 with stop losses somewhat at 615. Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! ~ Tuan Anh Commo
CBOT:ZW1!
by TheCommoTrader
Dead wrong on Oil, but what now?Obviously my previous predictions on Oil were wrong, however, it is hard to forecast a vicious virus from the far East. Now, the doomsdayers are back, touting their long bond positions with gold, saying "I told you so." Those positions have worked, and oil has tanked. To be clear, I don't dislike bonds or gold here, but Oil is ripe for a rebound. We are deeply oversold, indeed, I believe this sell-off is far overdone. From a pure technical perspective, the RSI is now turning, and MACD looks to be bottoming out. We should retest the ~60 level again, as this was the previous range bound channel crude was trading in. If 50 is broken, this thesis is invalidated and I am dead wrong. We will see.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by MT-Macro
Gold’s weekly outlook: Jan 25-29Gold again bounced back from the support and this move was broadly attributed to 2 things with the first being a continued fall in dollar and other being the uncertainty caused by the ongoing deadly pandemic. Last week’s important event of presidential transition was pretty uneventful in terms of the concerns it was roping in from days also failed to destabilize the gold as the focus shifted to an extra large stimulus on offing which in turn played the catalyst in the decline of dollar. Virus led fear might not reflect in current financial market as moreover everything is at or near to highs which can be another reason behind the lackluster movement in gold which should in actual terms fly given its safe haven nature since the situation post vaccination drive is not yet looking consoling as newer deadlier strains are raising questions regarding the effectiveness of current vaccines. And about the other geopolitical fundamentals, even they seem to never cease creating uncertainty. Things across the globe are looking equally gloomy as it was just a year back when the virus had started spreading and such similarity is due to moreorless exact copy of the spread by newer strains. In such a scenario gold remains the best investment asset class. To watch next week – Earnings, Fed meet, World Economic forum and other important economic data. On the chart – Gold made a dash towards the top of the flag again on lower dollar and added uncertainty but failed to break. This may look like a negative sign but again the pattern of inverse head and shoulders remains intact and in formation given the movement of the last week keeping the bullish trend alive. We have 2 scenarios – 1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1857. If this is crossed it can move towards $1875. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1886. 2. Bears tried hard again to push the price lower but failed suggesting the ongoing trend except scalp trades. Bullish view – Bulls made another attempt to break out of the flag on back of a falling dollar and rise in uncertainty but failed to do so. The move should be seen as not a negative one but a positive as the ongoing pattern formation of inverse head and shoulders remains intact which in itself is a bullish conveyor other than very disturbing fundamentals/event which has been ongoing since a year. With both technical and fundamentals in favor of bulls they might not be kept inside the flag for a longer duration and once the flag breaks with a solid confirmation then it will be no looking back. Bearishness continues to remain out of context. On larger terms, gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher. Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1858 for the targets of $1875 and $1886 with a stop loss placed below $1848. Longer term target $1901. Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets. Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
TVC:GOLDLong
by vanimator